铁矿石八月报 限产扰动仍在 铁矿相对偏强 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-8-4 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 张佩云 执业编号：F03090752 投资咨询号：Z0019837 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 投资策略：震荡偏强 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：七月份铁矿盘面先涨后跌。反内卷点燃市场情绪，外加钢厂利润良好，高铁水下高炉检修复产参半，盘 面大幅拉升。但月底会议预期落地后，宏观情绪降温，盘面进行回调。供给方面，七月份全球发运在海外矿山财年冲量 回落后，呈现逐步回升的趋势，同比往年发运量整体增加。近期澳洲发运显著回升，海外供应短期偏强。国内部分检修 矿山复产，国产矿产量小幅增加。需求方面，钢厂利润保持情况下，厂家小幅补库，铁水仍处相对高位。 后市展望：月底会议落地后，市场开始交易阅兵、粗钢限产和高炉检修等事件，即铁水需求存在下降预期。考虑到 四季度可能的宏观利好因素较多，铁水降幅不会太大，所以走正反馈逻辑下，原料端利好铁矿、利空煤炭。综上，预计 铁矿盘面震荡偏强运行，考虑作为空配其他黑色品种时的多腿配置，09合约关注770支撑。 p ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents the weekly data of iron ore inventory and related indicators, including downstream profitability, port inventory, steel mill inventory, consumption, arrival volume, domestic iron ore concentrate production, and steel mill operating rates. It shows the changes in these indicators compared to the previous week. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Downstream Profitability - The steel mill profitability rate is 60.17% this week, a decrease of 4.00 percentage points from the previous week [2]. Inventory Data - **Port Total Inventory**: Reached 13,785.21 this week, an increase of 19.32 compared to the previous week [2]. - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory**: Stood at 8,822.16 this week, a decrease of 157.48 from the previous week [2]. - **Port Inventory by Variety**: - **Coarse Powder**: 10,690.06 this week, an increase of 61.93 from the previous week [2]. - **Lump Ore**: 1,595.25 this week, an increase of 70.39 from the previous week [2]. - **Pellets**: 419.35 this week, a decrease of 31.17 from the previous week [2]. - **Iron Concentrate**: 1,080.55 this week, a decrease of 81.83 from the previous week [2]. - **Trading Ore**: 9,054.54 this week, a decrease of 58.36 from the previous week [2]. - **Brazilian Ore**: 4,836.23 this week, a decrease of 58 from the previous week [2]. - **Australian Ore**: 6,117.82 this week, an increase of 74 from the previous week [2]. Supply and Demand Data - **Daily Average Port Clearance Volume**: 322.74 this week, an increase of 3.23 from the previous week [2]. - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Daily Consumption**: 301.25 this week, an increase of 2.76 from the previous week [2]. - **Arrival Volume**: 2,662.1 this week, an increase of 178.20 from the previous week [2]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Production**: 40.25 this week, an increase of 0.55 from the previous week [2]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: 242.44 this week, an increase of 2.63 from the previous week [2]. - **Steel Mill Operating Rate**: 83.46% this week, an increase of 0.31 percentage points from the previous week [2]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: 90.89% this week, an increase of 0.99 percentage points from the previous week [2].