Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [6][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - buy on dips; Nickel - wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [6][12][14] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuate [23][25][27] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apple - fluctuate weakly; Jujube - fluctuate weakly [38] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pig - short on rallies; Egg - short on rallies; Corn - range fluctuate; Soybean meal - limited upside; Oils - limited rebound [41][44][45] Core Views - The global market shows mixed performance with different indexes having various trends. In the futures market, different products are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes, resulting in different expected price movements [2][6] - In the macro - financial sector, the stock index may fluctuate due to the combination of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of the domestic market. The 10 - year treasury bond may fluctuate around 1.70% [6] - In the black building materials sector, the supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced, and it may enter a short - term fluctuating pattern. Iron ore may fluctuate strongly, and coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate due to supply and demand factors [7][8][10] - In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper may fluctuate weakly at a high level. Aluminum may be bought on dips considering its supply - demand and inventory situation. Nickel may fluctuate, and tin and precious metals may fluctuate within a certain range [12][14][18] - In the energy and chemicals sector, products like PVC, caustic soda, and styrene may fluctuate due to cost, supply - demand, and macro - factors. Soda ash is recommended for a short 09 and long 05 arbitrage [23][25][27] - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn may fluctuate and adjust. Apple and jujube may fluctuate weakly due to supply - demand in the spot market [38] - In the agricultural and livestock sector, pigs and eggs may be shorted on rallies. Corn may fluctuate within a range, soybean meal may have limited upside, and oils may have a limited rebound [41][44][45] Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Index Futures: Fluctuate. Influenced by Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic market resilience, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover [6] - Treasury Bonds: Fluctuate. The 10 - year treasury bond may use 1.70% as the central position of the operating range, considering the current market situation and upcoming events [6] Black Building Materials - Rebar: Fluctuate. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season, and it may enter a short - term fluctuating pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions and the resumption progress of coking coal [7][8] - Iron Ore: Fluctuate. The market starts to trade events such as military parade, crude steel production restrictions, and blast furnace maintenance. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, it may fluctuate strongly [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Fluctuate. For coking coal, the supply is disturbed, and the demand is cautious. For coke, the supply and demand are in a balanced state with multiple factors affecting the market [10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Fluctuate weakly at a high level. Affected by macro - data, supply - demand in the industry, and tariff policies, it may continue to fluctuate weakly [12][13] - Aluminum: Fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite and alumina, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum, and the demand and inventory situation all affect the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [14][15][16] - Nickel: Fluctuate. The nickel market has an oversupply pattern, and the price may fluctuate within a certain range [18] - Tin: Fluctuate. The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, and it is recommended for range trading [20] - Gold and Silver: Fluctuate. Affected by US economic data, trade policies, and Fed's interest - rate policies, they are expected to fluctuate with support at the bottom [20][22] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Fluctuate. High supply, uncertain export sustainability, and macro - factors may lead to short - term fluctuations [23][24] - Soda Ash: Short 09 and long 05 arbitrage. The spot market is weak, and the supply is increasing, so this arbitrage strategy is recommended [35][36][37] - Caustic Soda: Fluctuate. The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but a slowing growth rate. It may fluctuate within a certain range [25][26] - Styrene: Fluctuate. The cost, supply - demand, and macro - factors affect the price, and it may fluctuate within a certain range [27][29] - Rubber: Fluctuate. The cost and supply support are limited, and the demand is weak, so it may fluctuate slightly [30][31] - Urea: Fluctuate. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing, so the price may fluctuate within a certain range [32][33] - Methanol: Fluctuate. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. It may fluctuate due to the overall industrial product price fluctuations [33] - Polyolefins: Fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It may fluctuate within a certain range [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Fluctuate and adjust. The global cotton supply and demand situation and the domestic market situation may lead to price fluctuations [38] - Apple: Fluctuate weakly. The slow sales of apples in the spot market and the normal growth of new fruits may lead to price pressure [38][39] - Jujube: Fluctuate weakly. The new - season situation in the production area and the supply - demand in the sales area may lead to price fluctuations [39] Agricultural and Livestock - Pig: Short on rallies. The short - term supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. Different contracts have different price trends and trading strategies [41][43] - Egg: Short on rallies. The current supply and demand situation and the long - term supply trend affect the price, and different contracts have different trading strategies [44][45] - Corn: Range fluctuate. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the long - term cost is decreasing. It may fluctuate within a certain range [45][46] - Soybean Meal: Limited upside. The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply may have a gap. Different contracts have different trading strategies [47][48] - Oils: Limited rebound. The supply - demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil is affected by multiple factors, and the price may have a limited rebound [49][50][54]

上周五，铁矿石现货青岛港（601298）PB粉768元/湿吨，折盘面基差32.81元/吨，基差率4.02%。 2025年8月4日铁矿石现 货价格表 | 品种 | 品牌/产地 | 价格（元/ | 规格 | 报价类 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 吨） | | 型 | | 铁矿石 | 江阴港 | 733 | 品种:粉矿;产地:印度;品 位:62%;湿吨; | 市场价 | | 793 | 品种:PB粉;产地:澳大利亚;品 位:62%;湿吨; | 市场价 | | | | | 品种:粗粉;产地:巴西;品 | 市场价 | | | | 818 | 位:63.5%;湿吨; | | | | | 铁矿石 | 曹妃甸港 | 740 | 品种:粉矿;产地:印度;品 位:62%;湿吨; | 市场价 | | 787 | 品种:PB粉;产地:澳大利亚;品 位:62%;湿吨; | 市场价 | | | | 808 | 品种:粗粉;产地:巴西;品 | 市场价 | | | | | 位:63.5%;湿吨; | | | | | 铁矿石 | 天津港 | 710 | 品种:粉矿;产地:印度;品 位:62%; ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the iron ore industry is to expect the market to be volatile with a slight upward bias [2][4][62] Core View of the Report - In July, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell. After the end - of - month meeting, the market started to price in events such as the military parade, crude steel production cuts, and blast furnace maintenance, leading to an expected decline in hot metal demand. However, considering the potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in hot metal output will not be significant. Under the positive feedback logic, it is favorable for iron ore and negative for coal at the raw material end. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will operate with a slight upward bias and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black commodities. Attention should be paid to the 770 support level for the 09 contract [3][61] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review: Soaring and Then Falling, Basis Stabilizing 1.1 Market Review: High - level Decline and Adjustment - Last Friday, the discounted futures prices of various grades of iron ore at Qingdao Port were: Super Special Powder at 846 yuan/ton (- 14), PB Powder at 813 yuan/ton (- 15), Newman Powder at 801 yuan/ton (- 17), and Carajas Powder at 812 yuan/ton (- 13). The dry - basis tax - included price of Tangshan 66% iron concentrate was 930 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10. The Platts 62% price index was 99.30 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3.3, and the monthly average was 99.30 US dollars/ton. The 09 contract of iron ore closed at 783 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 19.5 [8] 1.2 Market Review: Strength of Medium - and High - grade Ores - On August 1st, the contract screw - to - ore ratio was 4.09, a decrease of 0.09 from the previous period. The prices of Super Special Powder, PB Powder, and Carajas Powder were 643, 768, and 870 yuan/wet ton respectively. The basis of the PB Powder 09 contract was 30 yuan/ton last Friday, a weekly increase of 4. The 05 - 09 spread was 26 yuan/ton last Friday, a weekly decrease of 4 [17][22] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Increased Imports, Profitable Steel Mills 2.1 Import Volume: Significant Increase - In June, China's total imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 10,594.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 833.49. The cumulative imports were 59,255.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Specifically, sintering ore powder imports were 7,504.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 809.70; lump ore imports were 1,787.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120.65; pellet imports were 116.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.16; and iron concentrate imports were 1,186.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 [24][28] 2.2 Domestic Supply: Output Decline - In June, the cumulative output of domestic raw ore was 50,859.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. As of August 1st, the daily average output of iron concentrate was 46.30 million tons, a decrease of 1.73 from the previous period. The iron concentrate inventory of mining enterprises was 76.80 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 from the previous period [30][31][32] 2.3 Foreign Supply: Stronger Shipments from Brazil - As of July 25th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,677.8 million tons, an increase of 198.8 from the previous period. Australian shipments were 1,793.5 million tons, an increase of 222.3, while Brazilian shipments were 884.3 million tons, a decrease of 23.5. As of August 1st, the sea freight from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.37 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.05, and from Brazil to Qingdao was 24.01 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.53 [42] 2.4 Ports: Decline in Both Arrival and Out - port Volumes - On July 25th, the arrival volume at 45 major domestic ports was 2,240.5 million tons, a decrease of 130.7 from the previous period. Last week, the number of ships at berth in 47 ports was 96, a decrease of 6. The daily average out - port volume at 45 major domestic ports last week was 302.71 million tons, a decrease of 12.44 [46] 2.5 Inventory: Steel Mills Restocking - Last week, the iron ore inventory at 45 major domestic ports was 13,657.9 million tons, a weekly decrease of 132.48. Among them, coarse powder inventory was 11,017.53 (- 182.86), lump ore inventory was 1,738.26 (+ 34.76), pellet inventory was 386.14 (- 11.15), and iron concentrate inventory was 1,080.08 (- 14.42). Last Friday, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 domestic steel mills was 9,012.09 million tons, a weekly increase of 126.87, and the corresponding daily average iron ore consumption last week was 299.46 million tons/day (- 1.64). The total inventory of the two was 24,669.99 million tons, a decrease of 5.61 [47] 2.6 Steel Enterprises' Demand: Decline in Hot Metal Output - Last week, the profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73%. The daily average hot metal output of 247 domestic steel enterprises last week was 240.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.52. The market price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Jiangyin was 2,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 [56] 3. Investment Strategy: Affected by Production Cuts, Relatively Strong 3.1 Investment Strategy: Volatile Operation - The iron ore futures market in July first rose and then fell. After the end - of - month meeting, the market started to price in events such as the military parade, crude steel production cuts, and blast furnace maintenance, leading to an expected decline in hot metal demand. Considering the potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in hot metal output will not be significant. Under the positive feedback logic, it is favorable for iron ore and negative for coal at the raw material end. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will operate with a slight upward bias and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black commodities. Attention should be paid to the 770 support level for the 09 contract [61]