Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On October 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The current supply and demand are both strong, with limited inventory pressure upstream. However, the expectation of reduced ore supply has weakened, downstream destocking has slowed, and the demand inflection point may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to short at the upper edge of the short - term range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 22, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 76,180.00 yuan/ton, 76,780.00 yuan/ton, 77,120.00 yuan/ton, and 77,120.00 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 380.00 yuan/ton, 1,200.00 yuan/ton, 1,140.00 yuan/ton, and 1,140.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 376,449.00 hands (+178,470.00 hands), and the open interest was 353,231.00 hands (+43,032.00 hands). The inventory was 29,019.00 tons (-873.00 tons) [1]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,350.00 yuan/ton (+250.00 yuan/ton), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 72,100.00 yuan/ton (+250.00 yuan/ton). The basis was - 2,770.00 yuan/ton (-890.00 yuan/ton), and the basis discount widened. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [1]. Cost Side - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased to 857.00 US dollars/ton (+3.00 US dollars/ton), and the price of lithium mica remained flat [1]. Supply Side - Last week, lithium carbonate production increased. The registered warehouse receipts were 29,019 tons (-873 tons), social inventory decreased, and both smelters and downstream reduced their inventories [1]. Demand Side - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries will be tightened in October [1]. Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 132,658 tons (-2,143 tons), with smelter inventory at 34,283 tons (-464 tons), downstream inventory at 57,735 tons (-2,030 tons), and other inventory at 40,640 tons (+350 tons) [1]. Industry News - Tesla's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production line in Nevada will start production in the first quarter of 2026 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain in a situation of excessive supply, with industry inventories at a high level. It is recommended to trade with a light - position in a volatile manner and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks. For options, the call - to - put ratio of open interest is 38.21%, with call positions dominant in the options market, and the market sentiment is bullish, with implied volatility slightly rising. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to trade with a light - position in a slightly weak volatile manner and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 60,860 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 30,113 hands, down 2,229 hands; the open interest of the main contract is 339,673 hands, up 3,866 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,140 yuan/ton, down 3,400 yuan; the warehouse receipts on the GZEE are 36,684 hands/ton, up 60 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 61,600 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,390 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 749 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,140 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,760 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume is 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; the monthly export volume is 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 55,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - lithium oxide is 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, up 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 31,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 47%, down 10 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,251,000 vehicles, down 26,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,226,000 vehicles, down 11,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 42.74%, up 1.58 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 4,300,000 vehicles, up 1,360,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 200,000 vehicles, up 42,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 642,000 vehicles, up 221,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 23.85%, down 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 20.44%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call open interest is 157,839 contracts, up 19,108 contracts; the total put open interest is 60,309 contracts, up 7,453 contracts; the put - to - call ratio of total open interest is 38.21%, up 0.1096 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.30%, up 0.0085 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In April 2025, China imported 28,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% month - on - month increase and a 34% year - on - year increase. From January to April, China cumulatively imported 79,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 27% cumulative year - on - year increase. In April, China exported 734 tons of lithium carbonate, a 334% month - on - month increase and a 213% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 633,000 tons, with lithium spodumene from Australia, Zimbabwe and Nigeria accounting for 79%. Wanrun New Energy signed a supply agreement for 1.3231 million tons of lithium iron phosphate products with CATL. CATL promised to purchase no less than 80% of the company's committed volume monthly from 2025 - 2030. In the first quarter, Leapmotor had a remarkable performance, with revenue increasing by 187.1% year - on - year to 10.02 billion yuan, and the gross profit margin reaching 14.9%. The net loss attributable to the parent company was 130 million yuan, a significant narrowing compared with the loss of 1.01 billion yuan in the same period last year. In April, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the month - on - month growth was 0.24%. In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the month - on - month growth was 0.22% [2].