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沪锌:商品情绪显著缓和,基本面压力逐步积累
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 14:13
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US non - farm payroll data for July 2025 released on the evening of August 1st was significantly weaker than expected. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population in July was 73,000, the smallest increase since October last year, far lower than the market expectation of 110,000. The total number of new jobs in May and June was 258,000 less than previously reported, and the unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, which met market expectations but made Trump urge Powell to cut interest rates [5]. - Last week, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market significantly eased, and zinc prices gradually declined. The weekly processing fee continued to rise, and the supply of zinc ore was becoming looser, which was being transmitted to the smelting end. The pressure on the zinc fundamentals was gradually accumulating [5]. - In the long - term, the supply of zinc ore is shifting to a looser state cyclically. Several large zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans in 2025. The increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in ore supply is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and the output of refined zinc has continued to expand. It is expected that the production increase situation in the ore and smelting sectors will continue [5]. - On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach a new trade agreement and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, and it will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated optimistically or pessimistically, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, which will bring downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [5]. - In the short and medium term, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market has significantly declined, the anti - involution trading has ended, and the market has returned to the fundamental reality. The long - term surplus trend of zinc remains unchanged, and short positions can still be established on rallies [5]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 1. Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and it was halved compared to the previous year. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of looser zinc ore supply on the margin remained unchanged [6]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrate in China was 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports boosted the processing fee. As of August 1st, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $78.8/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,900 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [9]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, the profits of smelters have been continuously improved [12]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 601,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. As profits rebounded, production was gradually increasing [16]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 180,000 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [18]. 2. Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In June 2025, the domestic galvanized sheet production was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.31%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of the implicit inventory in the industrial chain [23]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Infrastructure and Real Estate**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but the front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Automobiles and Home Appliances**: In June 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [28]. 3. Other Indicators - **Inventory**: During the off - season, the social inventory of zinc continued to accumulate. With the continuous increase in the output of domestic smelters, the inventory accumulation trend will continue [30]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of August 1st, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $10.96/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium declined [33]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of July 25th, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 30,194 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently declined [35].
沪锌市场周报:贸易担忧需求淡季,预计锌价震荡偏弱-20250613
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 10:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc price is expected to be volatile and weak due to trade concerns and the off - season of demand. The operation suggestion is to wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly increase or decrease of - 2.55% and an amplitude of 2.64%. The closing price of the main contract was 21,815 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, the core PPI growth rate in the US in May hit a new low in nearly a year, and the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has increased. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has risen, the processing fee of zinc ore has continued to increase, and the profit of smelters has been further repaired. The supply growth has accelerated. The import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, it is the off - season, the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year, and the subsequent export demand may shrink. Technically, the position has increased, and the short side is stronger. Attention should be paid to the support at the 21,800 mark and the pressure of MA10 [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of June 13, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 21,815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton or 2.55% compared with June 6, 2025. As of June 12, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,644 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 44 US dollars/ton or 1.64% compared with June 6, 2025 [9]. - **Net Position**: As of June 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 10,776 lots, a decrease of 2,187 lots compared with June 6, 2025. As of June 13, 2025, the position of Shanghai zinc was 300,051 lots, an increase of 65,041 lots or 27.68% compared with June 6, 2025 [11]. - **Price Difference**: As of June 13, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was 1,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 940 yuan/ton compared with June 6, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price difference was 4,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 735 yuan/ton compared with June 6, 2025 [16]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of June 13, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan/ton or 2.02% compared with June 6, 2025. The spot premium was 215 yuan/ton, a decrease compared with last week. As of June 12, 2025, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was - 30.36 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.15 US dollars/ton compared with June 5, 2025 [23]. - **Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 131,000 tons, a decrease of 5,975 tons or 4.36% compared with June 6, 2025. The SHFE refined zinc inventory was 45,466 tons, a decrease of 1,546 tons or 3.29% compared with last week. As of June 12, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 56,300 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons or 3.26% compared with June 5, 2025 [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In March 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0184 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.19% and a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. In April 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 494,662.21 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 37.64% and a year - on - year increase of 72.63% [30]. - **Supply Side**: In March 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1219 million tons, a decrease of 45,600 tons or 3.91% compared with the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.0982 million tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons or 0.31% compared with the same period last year. The global refined zinc surplus was 23,700 tons, compared with a surplus of 65,900 tons in the same period last year. In April 2025, the zinc output was 576,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative zinc output was 2.333 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In April 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 28,229.21 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.66%, and the export volume was 2,479.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 283.56% [33][37][40]. - **Downstream**: - **Galvanized Sheet (Strip)**: From January to April 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 683,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.11%. In April 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 32,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.05%, and the export volume was 404,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.73% [43][44]. - **Real Estate**: From January to April 2025, the newly started housing area was 178.3584 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.13%. The completed housing area was 156.4785 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.37%. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 3.259564 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 451.782 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [47][48]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: From January to April 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% year - on - year. In April 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.86, a decrease of 0.09 compared with last month and an increase of 2.06 compared with the same period last year [53][52]. - **Home Appliances**: In April 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.179 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. From January to April, the cumulative refrigerator output was 32.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The air - conditioner output was 30.833 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to April, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2% [55][56]. - **Automobiles**: In May 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,686,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.14%, and the output was 2,649,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.67% [60].