经济观察网 根据公开信息，韦科鞋业（指全球最大运动鞋制造商，其上市子公司包括宝胜国际）在 2026年有以下几方面事件值得关注： 行业政策与环境 广发证券在2025年12月的研报中指出，2026年是体育大年，重大体育赛事通常对运动鞋服品牌的销售有 良好的催化效果，这将利好运动鞋服龙头公司。同时，全球运动鞋服龙头公司的去库存进程已接近尾 声，其去库存产品对国产品牌的冲击有望减弱。 业务进展情况 公司的零售业务主要通过宝胜国际运营。2026年，中国运动鞋服零售行业需求有望回暖，得益于体育赛 事及扩内需政策。宝胜国际正积极推进全渠道和精细化运营，优化库存结构，以期实现业绩反转。 业绩战略 公司在2025年11月提供的展望显示，预计2026年集团营收增长将迈向长期目标区间（低双位数至中十位 数百分比）的高端，调整后营业利润率每年将扩张30-70个基点以上。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 业务进展情况 公司的制造业务深度绑定Nike与adidas等全球品牌。展望2026年，运动鞋服代工行业业绩有望改善：伴 随美国关税政策明朗化，品牌客户下单节奏有望恢复正常；同时，体育赛事大年有望带动下游需求；若 核心客户N ...

Group Overview - 9M25 total revenue was US$6,017.4 million[11], with athletic/outdoor shoes accounting for 55% and Pou Sheng contributing 29.7%[10] - 2024 revenue reached US$8,182 million, profit attributable to owners was US$393 million, and dividend per share was HK$1.30[13] - Shoe volume increased by 17% to 255 million pairs in 2024, while ASP decreased by 5.1% to US$20.25[13] - The company is committed to reducing emissions by 46.2% by 2030 compared to 2019[23] Financial Performance (9M25 vs 9M24) - Group revenue decreased by 1% to US$6,017.4 million[42, 53] - Manufacturing revenue increased by 2.3% to US$4,231.7 million[42, 65] - Retail revenue (Pou Sheng) decreased by 7.7% to RMB 12,903 million[42] - Profit attributable to owners decreased by 16% to US$278.7 million[42, 53] - Manufacturing profit attributable to owners decreased by 12.6% to US$263.9 million[42, 65] - Retail profit attributable to owners decreased by 50.1% to RMB 171 million[42] Manufacturing Business - Shoe volume increased by 1.3% YoY to 189.4 million pairs[40, 49] - ASP increased by 3.2% YoY to US$20.88 per pair[40] - Manufacturing gross profit margin was 18.3%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points[40, 65] - Manufacturing operating profit margin was 6.6%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points[40, 65] Retail Business (Pou Sheng) - Online contribution reached a historical high, accounting for 33% of total sales[98] - Number of direct operated stores decreased by 3.5% YoY[109]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth in manufacturing but challenges in retail, indicating resilience in manufacturing amidst external pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of $4.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.2% to $170 million [1]. - Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 0.4% to $2.03 billion, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 13% to $100 million [1]. - Manufacturing business revenue grew by 6.2% to $2.8 billion in H1 2025, with Q2 revenue increasing by 6.5% to $1.47 billion [1][2]. Group 2: Manufacturing Business Insights - The manufacturing segment showed resilience with a 5% increase in footwear shipment volume to 13 million pairs in H1 2025, and a capacity utilization rate maintained at 93% [1]. - Average selling price per pair increased by 3.2% to $20.6 in H1 2025, driven by improved product mix [1]. - However, the gross margin for the manufacturing business decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 17.7% in H1 2025, attributed to uneven capacity loads and rising labor costs [2]. Group 3: Retail Business Challenges - The retail segment faced significant pressure, with revenue declining by 8.3% to $9.16 billion in H1 2025, and a 14% drop in physical store revenue [2]. - The number of direct-operated stores decreased by 40 to 3,408, with same-store sales declining between 10% and 20% [2]. - Gross margin for the retail business fell by 0.7 percentage points to 33.5% in H1 2025, reflecting deeper discounts due to fluctuations in the consumer environment [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its manufacturing business, with projected revenue growth of 2.5%, 6%, and 5.4% for 2025-2027, reaching $8.38 billion, $8.88 billion, and $9.36 billion respectively [3]. - Net profit is anticipated to grow by 0.8%, 10.2%, and 6.9% during the same period, reaching $400 million, $440 million, and $470 million respectively [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its growth prospects and supply chain expansion [3].

Core Viewpoint - Yuanyuan Group reported a revenue of $4.06 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was $170 million, a decrease of 7.2% [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment achieved revenue of $2.8 billion in H1 2025, up 6.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of $160 million, down 0.2% [1] - In Q2 2025, manufacturing revenue reached $1.47 billion, reflecting a 6.5% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 29.2% to $90 million [1] - The company experienced a steady growth in shipment volume, with a 4.7% year-on-year increase in Q2, and an average selling price increase of 3.9% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Retail Business - Baosheng International's revenue in H1 2025 was $1.26 billion, down 8.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of $30 million, a significant decline of 44.3% [1] - In Q2 2025, Baosheng's revenue decreased by 11.1% year-on-year to $560 million, with net profit dropping 69.2% to $10 million [1] - The company closed 40 stores in H1 2025, with same-store sales declining in double digits, and a further 29 stores closed in Q2 [1] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Future Outlook - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.4 per share for H1 2025, with a payout ratio of 48% [1] - Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders are $360 million, $400 million, and $450 million for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year changes of -8%, +12%, and +13% respectively [2] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8, 7, and 6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a projected dividend yield of 9% in 2025 under a 70% payout assumption [2]

Summary of Yue Yuen (0551.HK) and Pou Sheng (3813.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Companies Involved**: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (0551.HK) and Pou Sheng International Holdings Limited (3813.HK) [1][2] Key Industry Insights - **OEM Business Outlook**: The OEM business outlook for 2H25 remains cautious due to shorter order visibility from brands and conservative procurement practices. Management expects Q3 volume to decline by high single digits (HSD%) compared to a high base last year, with a wider year-over-year (yoy) decline in gross profit margin (GPM) than in 1H25 [1][12] - **Retail Demand**: Pou Sheng is experiencing uncertainty in sales recovery for 2H25, with inventory levels under control due to self-help efforts and brand support. The company anticipates a positive growth in average selling price (ASP) for 2H25, contributing to a low single-digit (LSD%) growth in full-year ASP yoy [1][12] Financial Performance - **Pou Sheng Sales Decline**: Pou Sheng reported a -12% yoy decline in sales for 2Q25, followed by a -9% yoy decline in July. Management expects continued pressure in August due to seasonal factors [13] - **Inventory Management**: Inventory levels rose by 4.6% yoy in 1H25, with aging inventory below 9%. The company plans to implement proactive measures to manage inventory in response to demand softness [14] Margin and Cost Insights - **Margin Pressure**: 2Q25 margins faced headwinds from subcontracting costs, uneven production levels, and rising labor costs. The company expects GPM in 3Q25 to decline more than in 1H25, but overall GPM for 2H25 is projected to be higher than in 1H25 [12][14] - **Tariff Implications**: Four brand customers, accounting for approximately 50% of sales, have requested the company to share low single-digit percentage points (LSDpp) of the elevated US tariff. There is no significant increase in tariff-sharing requirements following the reciprocal tariff for ASEAN countries rising to approximately 20% from 10% [9][12] Capital Expenditure and Strategic Focus - **Capex Plans**: The company expects to invest over US$300 million in capex for 2025, focusing on diversifying manufacturing capacity in key countries like Indonesia and India, which is set to start production in 1Q27 [10] Valuation and Price Targets - **Price Target for Yue Yuen**: The target price remains unchanged at HK$14.00, based on an 8x/9x 2025E P/E valuation for Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen's OEM business, respectively [3][20] - **Price Target for Pou Sheng**: The target price is adjusted to HK$0.60 from HK$0.70, reflecting a conservative outlook on sales and margins [3][19] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks for Yue Yuen**: Potential risks include tariff hikes impacting demand, weaker-than-expected orders from key accounts, and lower-than-expected margin recovery [20] - **Key Risks for Pou Sheng**: Risks include slower recovery of Nike/adidas growth in China and higher discounts leading to operating deleverage [19] Conclusion - The overall sentiment towards Yue Yuen's OEM business appears to be improving, reflected in a 6% increase in share price, driven by settled tariff rates, lower expectations, better ASP, and disciplined operating expense control [2]

Group Overview - Yue Yuen Industrial's total revenue for 1H25 was US$4,060.1 million[12] - In 1H25, Athletic/Outdoor Shoes accounted for 53.6% of the business structure, Pou Sheng accounted for 31.1%, Casual Shoes & Sport Sandals accounted for 10.7%, and Soles, Components & Others accounted for 4.6%[11] Group Operation Highlights - Group revenue increased by 1.1% YoY to US$4,060.1 million in 1H25[41] - Profit attributable to owners decreased slightly by 0.3% YoY to US$155.0 million[41] - Manufacturing revenue increased by 6.2% YoY to US$2,797.9 million in 1H25[41] - Retail revenue decreased by 8.3% YoY to RMB 9,159 million in 1H25[41] - Interim dividend remained flat YoY at HK$0.40 per share, with a payout ratio of 48%[41] - Shoe volume increased by 5.0% YoY to 126.7 million pairs in 1H25[39] - Average Selling Price (ASP) increased by 3.2% YoY to US$20.61 per pair in 1H25[39] Manufacturing Business - Manufacturing revenue increased by 6.2% YoY to US$2,797.98 million in 1H25[64] - Manufacturing gross profit margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points YoY to 17.7% in 1H25[64] - Manufacturing operating profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points YoY to 5.9% in 1H25[64] Retail Business - Pou Sheng - Pou Sheng's revenue decreased by 8.3% YoY to RMB 9,159 million in 1H25[41] - Online contribution reached a historical high, accounting for 33% of total sales, a 16% YoY increase[97] - Pou Sheng's number of employees decreased by 7% YoY from 20,700 to 19,200[108]

Group Financial Performance - Yue Yuen Group's revenue increased by 1.3% YoY to $2,029.5 million in 1Q25 [12, 48] - Profit attributable to owners decreased by 24.2% YoY to $75.8 million [37, 48] - Gross profit margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 22.9% [37, 48] Manufacturing Business - Manufacturing revenue increased by 5.9% YoY to $1,328.3 million in 1Q25 [37, 42, 61] - Shoe volume increased by 5.3% YoY to 61.9 million pairs [36, 44] - Average selling price (ASP) increased by 2.5% YoY to $20.04 per pair [36] - Manufacturing gross profit margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 17.7% [36, 37, 61] - Capital expenditure increased significantly by 239.2% YoY to $67.5 million [49, 83] Retail Business - Pou Sheng - Pou Sheng's revenue decreased by 5.4% YoY in RMB terms [37, 41] - Pou Sheng's online contribution reached a historical high, accounting for 32% of total sales, up 20% YoY [40, 93] - Profit attributable to owners of Pou Sheng decreased by 20.7% YoY [37, 94] - Same Store Sales Growth increased 13.9% YoY [93]