Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth in manufacturing but challenges in retail, indicating resilience in manufacturing amidst external pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of $4.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.2% to $170 million [1]. - Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 0.4% to $2.03 billion, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 13% to $100 million [1]. - Manufacturing business revenue grew by 6.2% to $2.8 billion in H1 2025, with Q2 revenue increasing by 6.5% to $1.47 billion [1][2]. Group 2: Manufacturing Business Insights - The manufacturing segment showed resilience with a 5% increase in footwear shipment volume to 13 million pairs in H1 2025, and a capacity utilization rate maintained at 93% [1]. - Average selling price per pair increased by 3.2% to $20.6 in H1 2025, driven by improved product mix [1]. - However, the gross margin for the manufacturing business decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 17.7% in H1 2025, attributed to uneven capacity loads and rising labor costs [2]. Group 3: Retail Business Challenges - The retail segment faced significant pressure, with revenue declining by 8.3% to $9.16 billion in H1 2025, and a 14% drop in physical store revenue [2]. - The number of direct-operated stores decreased by 40 to 3,408, with same-store sales declining between 10% and 20% [2]. - Gross margin for the retail business fell by 0.7 percentage points to 33.5% in H1 2025, reflecting deeper discounts due to fluctuations in the consumer environment [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its manufacturing business, with projected revenue growth of 2.5%, 6%, and 5.4% for 2025-2027, reaching $8.38 billion, $8.88 billion, and $9.36 billion respectively [3]. - Net profit is anticipated to grow by 0.8%, 10.2%, and 6.9% during the same period, reaching $400 million, $440 million, and $470 million respectively [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its growth prospects and supply chain expansion [3].

机构：长江证券 研究员：于旭辉/魏杏梓 事件描述 裕元集团2025H1 实现营收40.6 亿美元，同比+1.1%，归母净利润1.7 亿美元，同比-7.2%。 制造业务实现营收28.0 亿美元，同比+6.2%，归母净利润1.6 亿美元，同比-0.2%；宝胜国际实现营收 12.6 亿美元，同比-8.6%，归母净利润0.3 亿美元，同比-44.3%。此外，公司年中每股派息0.4 港元，分 红比例48%。 其中2025Q2 实现营收20.3 亿美元，同比+0.9%，归母净利润1.0 亿美元，同比+13.0%。制造业务实现营 收14.7 亿美元，同比+6.5%，归母净利润0.9 亿美元，同比+29.2%；宝胜国际实现营收5.6 亿美元，同 比-11.1%，归母净利润0.1 亿美元，同比-69.2%。 1、市场需求疲软风险； 2、产能利用率波动风险； 3、多品牌整合不及预期风险。 制造业务：量价提升共驱增长，净利率环比改善。裕元集团出货量稳健增长（Q2 同比+4.7%），产品 结构变化驱动平均单价回升（Q2 同比+3.9%），支撑制造业务Q2 收入同比+6.5%，环比提速0.5pct。Q2 产能利用率环比+4pct 至9 ...

Summary of Yue Yuen (0551.HK) and Pou Sheng (3813.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Companies Involved**: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (0551.HK) and Pou Sheng International Holdings Limited (3813.HK) [1][2] Key Industry Insights - **OEM Business Outlook**: The OEM business outlook for 2H25 remains cautious due to shorter order visibility from brands and conservative procurement practices. Management expects Q3 volume to decline by high single digits (HSD%) compared to a high base last year, with a wider year-over-year (yoy) decline in gross profit margin (GPM) than in 1H25 [1][12] - **Retail Demand**: Pou Sheng is experiencing uncertainty in sales recovery for 2H25, with inventory levels under control due to self-help efforts and brand support. The company anticipates a positive growth in average selling price (ASP) for 2H25, contributing to a low single-digit (LSD%) growth in full-year ASP yoy [1][12] Financial Performance - **Pou Sheng Sales Decline**: Pou Sheng reported a -12% yoy decline in sales for 2Q25, followed by a -9% yoy decline in July. Management expects continued pressure in August due to seasonal factors [13] - **Inventory Management**: Inventory levels rose by 4.6% yoy in 1H25, with aging inventory below 9%. The company plans to implement proactive measures to manage inventory in response to demand softness [14] Margin and Cost Insights - **Margin Pressure**: 2Q25 margins faced headwinds from subcontracting costs, uneven production levels, and rising labor costs. The company expects GPM in 3Q25 to decline more than in 1H25, but overall GPM for 2H25 is projected to be higher than in 1H25 [12][14] - **Tariff Implications**: Four brand customers, accounting for approximately 50% of sales, have requested the company to share low single-digit percentage points (LSDpp) of the elevated US tariff. There is no significant increase in tariff-sharing requirements following the reciprocal tariff for ASEAN countries rising to approximately 20% from 10% [9][12] Capital Expenditure and Strategic Focus - **Capex Plans**: The company expects to invest over US$300 million in capex for 2025, focusing on diversifying manufacturing capacity in key countries like Indonesia and India, which is set to start production in 1Q27 [10] Valuation and Price Targets - **Price Target for Yue Yuen**: The target price remains unchanged at HK$14.00, based on an 8x/9x 2025E P/E valuation for Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen's OEM business, respectively [3][20] - **Price Target for Pou Sheng**: The target price is adjusted to HK$0.60 from HK$0.70, reflecting a conservative outlook on sales and margins [3][19] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks for Yue Yuen**: Potential risks include tariff hikes impacting demand, weaker-than-expected orders from key accounts, and lower-than-expected margin recovery [20] - **Key Risks for Pou Sheng**: Risks include slower recovery of Nike/adidas growth in China and higher discounts leading to operating deleverage [19] Conclusion - The overall sentiment towards Yue Yuen's OEM business appears to be improving, reflected in a 6% increase in share price, driven by settled tariff rates, lower expectations, better ASP, and disciplined operating expense control [2]

Group Overview - Yue Yuen Industrial's total revenue for 1H25 was US$4,060.1 million[12] - In 1H25, Athletic/Outdoor Shoes accounted for 53.6% of the business structure, Pou Sheng accounted for 31.1%, Casual Shoes & Sport Sandals accounted for 10.7%, and Soles, Components & Others accounted for 4.6%[11] Group Operation Highlights - Group revenue increased by 1.1% YoY to US$4,060.1 million in 1H25[41] - Profit attributable to owners decreased slightly by 0.3% YoY to US$155.0 million[41] - Manufacturing revenue increased by 6.2% YoY to US$2,797.9 million in 1H25[41] - Retail revenue decreased by 8.3% YoY to RMB 9,159 million in 1H25[41] - Interim dividend remained flat YoY at HK$0.40 per share, with a payout ratio of 48%[41] - Shoe volume increased by 5.0% YoY to 126.7 million pairs in 1H25[39] - Average Selling Price (ASP) increased by 3.2% YoY to US$20.61 per pair in 1H25[39] Manufacturing Business - Manufacturing revenue increased by 6.2% YoY to US$2,797.98 million in 1H25[64] - Manufacturing gross profit margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points YoY to 17.7% in 1H25[64] - Manufacturing operating profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points YoY to 5.9% in 1H25[64] Retail Business - Pou Sheng - Pou Sheng's revenue decreased by 8.3% YoY to RMB 9,159 million in 1H25[41] - Online contribution reached a historical high, accounting for 33% of total sales, a 16% YoY increase[97] - Pou Sheng's number of employees decreased by 7% YoY from 20,700 to 19,200[108]

Group Financial Performance - Yue Yuen Group's revenue increased by 1.3% YoY to $2,029.5 million in 1Q25 [12, 48] - Profit attributable to owners decreased by 24.2% YoY to $75.8 million [37, 48] - Gross profit margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 22.9% [37, 48] Manufacturing Business - Manufacturing revenue increased by 5.9% YoY to $1,328.3 million in 1Q25 [37, 42, 61] - Shoe volume increased by 5.3% YoY to 61.9 million pairs [36, 44] - Average selling price (ASP) increased by 2.5% YoY to $20.04 per pair [36] - Manufacturing gross profit margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 17.7% [36, 37, 61] - Capital expenditure increased significantly by 239.2% YoY to $67.5 million [49, 83] Retail Business - Pou Sheng - Pou Sheng's revenue decreased by 5.4% YoY in RMB terms [37, 41] - Pou Sheng's online contribution reached a historical high, accounting for 32% of total sales, up 20% YoY [40, 93] - Profit attributable to owners of Pou Sheng decreased by 20.7% YoY [37, 94] - Same Store Sales Growth increased 13.9% YoY [93]