❑ 25H1 净利润明显承压。25H1 公司营收 126.6 亿元，同比+10.4%，净利润 16.7 亿元，同比-11.1%。25Q2 公司营收 73.1 亿元，同比+8.96%，净利润 9.08 亿元，同比-16.8%。 1）分业务：25H1 公司运动鞋收入同比+10.8%至 113.4 亿元，户外鞋靴收入 同比-57.3%至 2.61 亿元，运动凉鞋及其他收入同比+74.4%至 10.52 亿元。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 华利集团（300979.SZ） 25H1 老客户订单承压&产能错配，盈利能力下滑 消费品/轻工纺服 25Q2 公司收入和净利润分别同比+9%、-17%，新工厂爬坡速度加满，同时老 客户订单较差导致产能错配效率较低，盈利能力明显下滑。我们下调业绩预期， 预计 25-27 年公司归母净利润规模为 35.1 亿元、41.8 亿元、49.5 亿元，同比 增速为-9%、19%、18%。当前市值对应 2025PE18X、2026PE15X，维持强烈 推荐评级。 2）分地区：按照客户总部所在地，25H1 公司北美收入同比-0.4%至 98.9 亿 元，欧洲收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings, reflecting the challenges faced in the retail segment while acknowledging steady growth in manufacturing [2][10]. Core Insights - Yue Yuen's manufacturing business showed resilience with a revenue increase of 6.2% year-on-year, reaching USD 2.798 billion, while retail revenue fell by 8.6% to USD 1.262 billion [2][10]. - The company is focusing on prudent inventory and discount management to balance profitability and channel health, with inventory turnover days at 146 days [4][12]. - The management has emphasized a refined retail strategy and diversification of channels, particularly enhancing online sales which grew by 16% year-on-year [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H2025, total revenue was USD 4.06 billion, a 1.1% increase year-on-year, with manufacturing revenue at USD 2.798 billion and retail revenue at USD 1.262 billion [2][10]. - The average selling price for footwear increased by 3.2% to USD 20.61 per pair, benefiting from a premium order mix [2][10]. Retail Strategy - Pou Sheng International's omni-channel revenue grew significantly, driven by online sales, which doubled due to live-streaming initiatives [3][11]. - The company plans to maintain its offline store count between 3,300 and 3,500 while focusing on enhancing single-store efficiency [3][11]. Inventory and Cost Management - The management is implementing measures such as production cuts and clearance sales to control inventory levels, with nearly 9% of inventory being aged [4][12]. - The gross profit margin for manufacturing decreased to 17.7%, impacted by rising labor costs and uneven capacity utilization [2][10]. Capacity Expansion and Tariff Strategy - The company is optimizing its capacity layout and expanding production in Indonesia and India to mitigate tariff impacts, with a projected capital expenditure of around USD 300 million for factory construction [5][13].

Core Viewpoint - Yuanyuan Group's stock rose over 6% following the release of its financial results, indicating positive market sentiment despite a decline in profit [1] Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2025, Yuanyuan Group reported a revenue of $4.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [1] - The profit attributable to shareholders was $171 million, reflecting a decrease of 7.2% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 10.67 cents, with an interim dividend proposed at 0.4 Hong Kong dollars per share [1] Business Segments - Revenue from footwear activities, including sports/outdoor shoes, casual shoes, and sports sandals, increased by 8.3% to $2.611 billion [1] - The volume of footwear shipped rose by 5.0% to 127 million pairs [1] - The average selling price per pair increased by 3.2% to $20.61 [1] Market Outlook - The company exports 29% of its products to the U.S., with production distribution in Indonesia (53%), Vietnam (32%), and China (10%) [1] - The impact of tariffs is expected to affect end-consumer demand, but the company aims to expand market share through overseas production capacity [1] - Short-term order pressure is anticipated due to tariffs and inflation, while medium-term growth is expected to resume due to capacity expansion and price increases driven by brands like Adidas and ASICS [1]

回顾本期间，本集团的运动/户外鞋类占鞋履制造营业收入的83.4%。休闲鞋及运动凉鞋则占鞋履制造营 业收入的16.6%。倘若考虑本集团的综合营业收入，运动/户外鞋为本集团的主要类别，占总营业收入的 53.6%，其次为休闲鞋及运动凉鞋，占总营业收入的10.7%。 裕元集团(00551)发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月业绩，该集团取得营业收入40.6亿美元，同比增加 1.1%;公司拥有人应占溢利1.71亿美元，同比减少7.2%;每股基本盈利10.67美仙，拟派发中期股息每股0.4 港元。 回顾本期间，来自制鞋活动(包括运动/户外鞋、休闲鞋及运动凉鞋)的营业收入较去年同期增加8.3%至 26.11亿美元。本期间鞋履出货量上升5.0%至1.27亿双。受惠于优质的订单组合，平均售价上升3.2%， 至每双20.61美元。 ...

Group Overview - Yue Yuen Industrial's total revenue for 1H25 was US$4,060.1 million[12] - In 1H25, Athletic/Outdoor Shoes accounted for 53.6% of the business structure, Pou Sheng accounted for 31.1%, Casual Shoes & Sport Sandals accounted for 10.7%, and Soles, Components & Others accounted for 4.6%[11] Group Operation Highlights - Group revenue increased by 1.1% YoY to US$4,060.1 million in 1H25[41] - Profit attributable to owners decreased slightly by 0.3% YoY to US$155.0 million[41] - Manufacturing revenue increased by 6.2% YoY to US$2,797.9 million in 1H25[41] - Retail revenue decreased by 8.3% YoY to RMB 9,159 million in 1H25[41] - Interim dividend remained flat YoY at HK$0.40 per share, with a payout ratio of 48%[41] - Shoe volume increased by 5.0% YoY to 126.7 million pairs in 1H25[39] - Average Selling Price (ASP) increased by 3.2% YoY to US$20.61 per pair in 1H25[39] Manufacturing Business - Manufacturing revenue increased by 6.2% YoY to US$2,797.98 million in 1H25[64] - Manufacturing gross profit margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points YoY to 17.7% in 1H25[64] - Manufacturing operating profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points YoY to 5.9% in 1H25[64] Retail Business - Pou Sheng - Pou Sheng's revenue decreased by 8.3% YoY to RMB 9,159 million in 1H25[41] - Online contribution reached a historical high, accounting for 33% of total sales, a 16% YoY increase[97] - Pou Sheng's number of employees decreased by 7% YoY from 20,700 to 19,200[108]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of appropriate outdoor gear during heavy rainfall, highlighting various products available on JD.com to ensure safety and comfort while navigating wet conditions [1][5]. Group 1: Weather Impact - Continuous heavy rainfall has been reported in multiple regions including Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei, with a red rainstorm warning issued in Beijing, predicting localized heavy to torrential rain from July 28 to 29 [1]. - The article advises minimizing outdoor activities during severe weather and suggests protective gear for those who must go out [5]. Group 2: Recommended Footwear - For outdoor activities in wet conditions, specialized footwear such as creek shoes or sports sandals is recommended, including options like Hoka Hopera creek shoes and ASICS sports sandals, which provide breathability and grip [2]. - Other footwear options include Crocs and BEYS rain boots, designed for water resistance and safety on slippery surfaces [1][2]. Group 3: Recommended Outerwear - A high-performance waterproof and windproof jacket is essential for staying dry during rain, with various options available such as the Explorer brand jackets and North Face jackets, which utilize advanced materials to prevent moisture accumulation [3]. - JD.com offers a wide range of waterproof jackets from brands like Helly Hansen and Columbia, catering to consumers' needs for protection against rain [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of $202.9 million and $7.6 million, respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% and a decline of 24.2%, which was below market expectations [2]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to uneven capacity utilization across manufacturing plants, inefficiencies in production, and rising labor costs due to increased hiring and wage inflation [2][3]. - The manufacturing ASP (Average Selling Price) turned positive after five consecutive quarters of decline, with Q1 2025 manufacturing revenue and net profit at $132.8 million and $6.4 million, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a decline of 24.6% [3]. - The retail business saw a further decline in revenue in April 2025, with Q1 retail revenue and net profit at $51.07 million and $1.38 million, respectively, down 5.4% and 20.7% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 manufacturing gross margin, operating net margin, and net margin attributable to shareholders were 17.7%, 5.7%, and 4.8%, respectively, down 2.6, 2.7, and 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company expects to maintain revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at $8.69 billion, $9.09 billion, and $9.43 billion, while lowering net profit forecasts for the same period to $460 million, $520 million, and $560 million [5][7]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a global leader in athletic shoe manufacturing, benefiting from a strong market share among top global sports brands and a vertically integrated supply chain [5]. - The company exports 29% to the U.S. and can cover tariffs through increased production capacity in Vietnam and Indonesia, with expectations of maintaining low to mid-single-digit growth in orders for the year [5]. - The report anticipates that despite short-term challenges from tariffs and inflation affecting consumer confidence, the company is likely to see growth driven by production expansion and positive price momentum [5].

Group 1 - The consumer market in Nanjing shows a stable foundation and a wave of upgrades, with retail sales of grain and oil, daily necessities, and sports and entertainment products increasing by 21.7%, 11.1%, and 19.6% respectively in the first quarter [1][3] - The establishment of "15-minute convenient living circles" has significantly improved residents' daily lives, with 166 such circles completed, covering 220 communities and providing services to 2.532 million residents, achieving a satisfaction rate of 97.86% [2][3] - The growth in retail sales of basic and upgraded goods reflects the vitality of the consumer market, driven by increased resident income and changing consumption concepts, with per capita disposable income reaching 24,411 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [6] Group 2 - The sports goods sector is experiencing a notable consumption upgrade, with retail sales of sports and entertainment products increasing by 19.6% in the first quarter, driven by rising health awareness among consumers [4][6] - The newly opened Decathlon store in Nanjing aims to create a differentiated commercial ecosystem by integrating green consumption concepts and community sports activities, enhancing the urban sports economy [6] - Decathlon plans to open two more physical stores in Nanjing by 2025, indicating a commitment to expanding its market presence and promoting sports consumption [6]

Group Financial Performance - Yue Yuen Group's revenue increased by 1.3% YoY to $2,029.5 million in 1Q25 [12, 48] - Profit attributable to owners decreased by 24.2% YoY to $75.8 million [37, 48] - Gross profit margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 22.9% [37, 48] Manufacturing Business - Manufacturing revenue increased by 5.9% YoY to $1,328.3 million in 1Q25 [37, 42, 61] - Shoe volume increased by 5.3% YoY to 61.9 million pairs [36, 44] - Average selling price (ASP) increased by 2.5% YoY to $20.04 per pair [36] - Manufacturing gross profit margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 17.7% [36, 37, 61] - Capital expenditure increased significantly by 239.2% YoY to $67.5 million [49, 83] Retail Business - Pou Sheng - Pou Sheng's revenue decreased by 5.4% YoY in RMB terms [37, 41] - Pou Sheng's online contribution reached a historical high, accounting for 32% of total sales, up 20% YoY [40, 93] - Profit attributable to owners of Pou Sheng decreased by 20.7% YoY [37, 94] - Same Store Sales Growth increased 13.9% YoY [93]