Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the expected implementation of a new round of stable growth work plans in key industries, including petrochemicals, which will promote structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release specific work plans for ten key industries, focusing on optimizing supply and eliminating backward production capacity [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to accelerate the supply-side reform in the chemical industry, particularly in sub-industries such as refining, PTA/PX, fertilizers, pigments, organic silicon/industrial silicon, soda ash, and chlor-alkali/PVC [2] Group 2 - In the refining sector, strict control of production capacity and low operating rates of local refineries are expected to improve the profitability of major refineries [3] - As of July 17, the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong was only 47.31%, indicating a historical low, which is expected to maintain due to the peak demand trend for refined oil [3] - The government aims to keep domestic crude oil processing capacity below 1 billion tons by 2025, with a target utilization rate of over 80% for major products [3] Group 3 - The urea industry is projected to see a gradual reduction in supply, which, combined with potential export opportunities, is expected to improve industry conditions [5] - By 2025, the new urea production capacity is estimated to be 4.93 million tons, accounting for only 6.5% of the current total capacity of 76.07 million tons, indicating limited future supply growth [5] Group 4 - The demand for soda ash and PVC is expected to recover due to increased infrastructure needs, with significant new production capacities planned for 2025-2026 [6] - The planned new soda ash capacity for 2025-2026 is 8.68 million tons, representing 20% of the total capacity in 2024, while the PVC capacity increase is projected to be 5 million tons, or 17% of the 2024 total capacity [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is likely to facilitate ongoing supply-side reforms in the soda ash and PVC industries, leading to improved supply conditions and increased industry concentration [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to undergo a new round of supply-side reforms, driven by the government's initiatives to eliminate outdated production capacity and improve industry structure [1][21] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to support the exit of old capacities, benefiting leading companies in sub-industries such as refining, fertilizers, pigments, organic silicon, soda ash, and chlor-alkali/PVC [1][21] Summary by Sections Refining - Strict control of refining capacity and low operating rates of local refineries in Shandong are expected to improve the profitability of major refineries [2][24] - As of 2024, China's refining capacity is projected to be 934 million tons, with a target to keep crude oil processing capacity below 1 billion tons by 2025 [24][25] Urea - Future supply is expected to decrease, with only 493,000 tons of new urea capacity projected by 2025, representing 6.5% of the current total capacity [2][26] - The industry is likely to benefit from supply reductions and potential export opportunities, particularly for leading companies capable of upgrading their facilities [26] Soda Ash and PVC - Increased demand from infrastructure projects is expected to drive recovery in the soda ash and PVC markets [3][27] - New soda ash capacity planned for 2025-2026 is estimated at 868,000 tons, accounting for 20% of the total capacity in 2024 [28] - The PVC industry is also expected to see limited new capacity, with a projected increase of 500,000 tons by 2025-2026, representing 17% of the total capacity in 2024 [29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in various sub-industries, including: - Refining: China Petroleum, Sinopec, Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong [4] - Fertilizers: Hualu Hengsheng, Chuanheng Co., Hubei Yihua, Salt Lake Potash, Yara International, Sinochem Fertilizer [4] - Pigments: Qicai Chemical, Baihehua, Xinkai Technology, Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu Co. [4] - Chlor-alkali/PVC: Yangmei Chemical, Chlor-alkali Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye [4] - Organic Silicon/Industrial Silicon: Hoshine Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, Silbond Technology [4] - Soda Ash: Sanyou Chemical, Boyuan Chemical, Shandong Haihua [4]

【隔夜行情】 •周五（2025年3月28日），A股收盘三大指数全面下跌，截至收盘，，上证指数报3351.31点，下跌 0.67%；创业板指数报2128.21点，下跌0.79%；科创50指数报1029.48点，下跌1.07%；沪深两市全天成 交额1.12万亿，较上个交易日缩量717亿。 •周五（2025年3月28日），港股高开低走，截止收盘，恒生指数跌0.65%或152.2点，报23426.6点，全日 成交额2296.22亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.82%，报8606.51点；恒生科技指数跌1.48%，报5506.47点。全 周来看，恒指累跌1.11%，国指累跌1.55%，恒科指数累跌2.36%。 •周五（当地时间2025年3月28日），美股三大指数集体上涨，截至周五收盘，标准普尔500指数涨 1.59%，报5954.5点；纳斯达克综合指数涨1.63%，报18847.28点；道琼斯工业平均指数涨1.39%，报 43840.91点。 【今日新股】 今日2只新股申购，无新股上市。 新股申购： 泰禾股份，创业板证券代码301665，发行价格10.27元/股，发行市盈率13.4倍；公司是以泰禾集团核心 资产整合设立的规范 ...