Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing significant growth, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 1.72% at close, marking five consecutive days of gains [1] - Key stocks in the sector include companies like Hebang Bio and Xinzhou Bang, which saw increases of over 6%, while Shengquan Group and Duofuduo rose over 5% [1] - The sub-sector index for fine chemicals has shown a cumulative increase of 26.84% in Q3, outperforming major A-share indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (12.73%) and the CSI 300 Index (17.9%) [4] Group 2 - East China Securities suggests that the chemical industry may see profit recovery due to regulatory controls on outdated production capacity and the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts [2][6] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors benefiting from self-regulation and policy guidance, such as polyester filament, organic silicon, and pesticides [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) has a price-to-book ratio of 2.31, indicating a favorable long-term investment value [5] Group 3 - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from both domestic supply-side policies and international market dynamics, with Chinese companies poised to fill gaps in the global supply chain [6] - The focus on sectors with significant profit elasticity, such as pesticides and organic silicon, is recommended, alongside attention to potassium and phosphorus chemical industries amid a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6]

招商化工行业周报 2025 年 9 月第 4 周 周期/化工 本报告阐述了基础化工板块一周行情走势、产品价格及价差变化、重点推荐子 行业及公司。 板块整体走势 9 月第 4 周化工板块（申万）下跌 0.95%，上证 A 指上涨 0.21%，板块落后 大盘 1.1.6 个百分点。涨幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：蓝丰生化（+61.16%）， 华软科技（+31.83%），凯美特气（+19.46%），上海新阳（+12.53%），当 升科技（+11.21%）；跌幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：金浦钛业（-23.15%）， 大东南（-9.98%），金发科技（-9.46%），赤天化（-7.91%），红宝丽（-7.2%）。 此外，本周化工板块（申万）动态 PE 为 28.52 倍，高于 2015 年来的平均 PE 4.63%。 细分子行业走势 9 月第 4 周化工行业 13 个子行业上涨，19 个子行业下跌。上涨子行业前五是： 维纶（+6.42%），民爆用品（+4.05%），其他化学制品（+3.96%），其他 纤维（+3.06%），涤纶（+2.89%）；下跌子行业前五是：SW 石油贸易（-12.17%）， SW 轮胎（-6.60% ...

化工行业过去产能问题较为突出，"反内卷"势在必行。9月26日，工信部等七部门对外发布《石化 化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，重要内容包括：将石化化工行业纳入制造业新型技术改 造城市试点政策重点支持领域；加强重大石化、现代煤化工项目规划布局引导，严控新增炼油产能；积 极拓展新能源电池材料、碳纤维及其复合材料、特种工程塑料等应用。 从全球视野看，化工行业正共同面对下游需求疲软与供需失衡的挑战，由此掀起了密集的去产能浪 潮。为应对这一局面，海外龙头企业已率先采取行动，包括壳牌、陶氏在内的欧洲、日韩等地知名化工 企业，均已开始对部分产品线进行主动的产能调控。 （风险提示：不代表个股投资建议） 化工品价格与PPI关联度较高，有望深度受益于"反内卷"政策推进，近期部分化工品价格开始回 暖，基本面改善预期增强，化工行业高端化转型也有望打开行业估值空间，此外，在市场出清过程中， 龙头化工企业或更加受益，建议继续关注化工龙头ETF（516220）把握投资机遇。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人 进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式 ...

Group 1 - The company is rated as "Buy" for the first time [1][8] - The report highlights that the company is a leading domestic organic pigment manufacturer with a comprehensive product range covering various application fields [6][15] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.125 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, and a net profit of 100 million yuan, a decrease of 0.67% [6][28] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" policies introduced in 2025 will benefit the chemical industry by eliminating outdated production capacity, which will enhance the company's profitability [6][36] - The company is expanding into the photoresist pigment business, which is expected to open a second growth curve, with significant market potential in the LCD and semiconductor sectors [7][49] - The company plans to invest 1 billion yuan in a project to produce high-performance organic pigments and related materials, with an expected annual output value of approximately 1.7 billion yuan upon completion [7][58] Group 3 - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 207 million, 275 million, and 427 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.64%, 32.96%, and 55.04% [8][60] - The projected revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 25.20 billion, 27.13 billion, and 30.92 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 4.86%, 7.67%, and 13.96% [8][61] - The company maintains a competitive edge with a gross margin of 21.34% in 2025, which is expected to increase to 25.85% by 2027 [33][61]

今日早盘，A股低开震荡整理，创业板指跌逾1%，失守3200点，上证指数、深证成指、北证50等也小幅飘绿。上涨个股略多于下跌个股，成交呈微幅萎 缩趋势。 盘面上，化纤、风电设备、业绩预增、能源金属等板块涨幅居前，消费电子、云服务、化学制药、铜缆高速连接等板块跌幅居前。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 3846.33 | -0.18% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | . | 13339.82 | -0.79% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | . | 3198.01 | -1.17% | | 000016 | 上证50 | œ | 2947.30 | -0.18% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 4574.03 | -0.42% | | 000688 | 科创20 | | 1466.84 | -0.52% | | 899050 | 北证50 | . . | 1542.10 | -0.97% | | 000905 | 中证500 | œ | 7307.40 | -0.4 ...

Summary of the Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chemical industry and its current challenges and strategies in response to overcapacity and profitability issues [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Profitability Improvement**: Industry associations are implementing collaborative mechanisms to bring poorly performing products back to cost levels, allowing leading companies to stabilize their profit margins [1][2]. - **Unified Market Policy**: The aim is to eliminate underperforming companies and standardize new entrants to prevent regional capacity transfer, promoting orderly industry development and enhancing product price elasticity [1][2]. - **Investment Growth**: From 2020 to 2024, the chemical industry is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% in fixed asset investment, significantly higher than previous cycles. However, demand decline has led to a notable reduction in capacity utilization and profitability [1][3]. - **Export Limitations**: Relying solely on exports is insufficient to alleviate domestic overcapacity. Anti-dumping measures from various countries restrict export capabilities, making it unrealistic to rely on international markets to absorb excess supply [4]. - **Dual Strategy for Overcapacity**: The industry will adopt a dual approach of strong regulation and soft constraints to manage capacity and achieve supply-demand balance. This includes policy support and collaborative mechanisms to control production and pricing [5]. - **Complexity of the Chemical Sector**: The chemical industry is complex, with various sub-sectors and products, making supply-side reforms challenging. The need for extensive data collection contributes to the slow pace of reform [6][9]. - **Historical Context**: The current phase of supply-side reform differs from 2016 due to technological barriers, diminishing returns on new investments, and increased project approval difficulties under a unified market policy [9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Environmental and Safety Regulations**: Historical regulatory measures, such as environmental inspections and energy consumption controls, have significantly impacted supply dynamics in the chemical sector [8]. - **Investment Selection Criteria**: When selecting investment targets, focus on industries with historical collaboration, moderate scale, high concentration, low new capacity ratio, and advantageous production pathways to enhance investment returns [10].

Group 1 - The chemical sector has regained momentum, with the Chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a rise of 1.24% by the end of trading on September 24, following a brief period of low-level fluctuations [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector include rubber additives, lithium batteries, and fluorochemicals, with notable gains from Tongcheng New Materials and Enjie Co., both hitting the daily limit, and Tianqi Materials and Duofluoride rising over 6% [1][2] - Recent government policies aim to promote high-quality development in energy equipment, which is expected to improve supply and demand dynamics in the chemical industry [1][3] Group 2 - Guojin Securities indicates that the current policy direction provides a phase-specific industry tone, with many chemical sectors at price profit bottoms and low inventory levels, making them sensitive to marginal changes [3] - The Chemical ETF (516020) has a price-to-book ratio of 2.21, which is at a low point historically, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Future measures are expected to lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical industry capacity expansion, potentially transforming the Chinese chemical industry into a high dividend yield sector [4] Group 3 - The chemical sector is anticipated to enter a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by recent policy initiatives aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics [4] - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, providing a robust investment opportunity in the sector [5] - Investors can also consider the Chemical ETF linked funds for efficient exposure to the chemical sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a rebound, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing positive performance, indicating potential investment opportunities in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) rose by 0.41% during the trading session, reflecting a positive trend in the chemical sector [1][2]. - Key stocks such as Zhongke Titanium, Guangdong Hongda, and others saw significant gains, with Zhongke Titanium and Guangdong Hongda both increasing over 7% [1]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The chemical industry is currently at a low point, necessitating the elimination of outdated production capacity to optimize supply-demand dynamics and promote high-quality development [1][4]. - There is a notable decline in new construction projects in the basic chemical sector, with the ratio of construction projects to fixed assets dropping to 24% in Q2 2025, down from 37% in Q2 2023, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" movement within the chemical industry is expected to lead to a re-evaluation of the sector, with potential measures to slow global capacity expansion [5]. - The chemical sector is characterized by strong cash flow, and a slowdown in expansion could significantly enhance potential dividend yields, transforming the sector from a cash drain to a cash generator [5]. - The chemical ETF (516020) provides a diversified investment opportunity across various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [6].

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a pullback on September 16, with the chemical ETF (516020) briefly rising before quickly declining, closing down 1.07% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, including Hongda Co. and Tianci Materials, saw significant declines, with both dropping over 3%, while several others fell more than 2%, negatively impacting the sector's performance [1][2] - The chemical ETF (516020) has seen substantial capital inflows recently, with a single-day inflow of 140 million yuan and cumulative inflows exceeding 980 million yuan over the last 10 trading days [1][2] Group 2 - As of the last closing, the chemical ETF (516020) had a price-to-book ratio of 2.29, which is at a low point within the last decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" measures in China may lead to a re-evaluation of the chemical industry, potentially slowing global capacity expansion and enhancing dividend yields for companies in the sector [4] - The Chinese chemical industry is expected to leverage its competitive advantages in cost and technology to fill gaps in the international supply chain, reshaping the global chemical industry landscape [4] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on strong performers [5] - Investors can also access the chemical sector through the chemical ETF linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for broader exposure [5]

9月5日，A股三大指数震荡上行，中证石化产业指数震荡走高，现涨超1.1%，成分股方面，蓝晓科 技、联泓新科、盐湖股份等领涨。相关ETF方面，石化ETF（159731）跟随指数上行，处于较好布局时 点。 消息面上，近日，由中集集团旗下中集天达承建的裕龙石化炼化一体化项目（一期）配套自动化立 体仓库全面竣工投产。该项目总投资近3.5亿元，是目前国内化工行业规模超大、技术领先的智能立体 仓库，标志着我国在高端物流装备制造和智能系统集成领域实现新突破。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 国信证券认为，随着化工行业"反内卷"工作推进，国有企业主动进行产能控制，监管部门对新增落 后产能审批控制，行业低效产能有望加速出清，供需结构逐步优化，化工行业或将实现盈利修复。展望 2025年9月，部分化工产品海外需求复苏，内需也有望进一步发力，中长期供需格局有望改善。 石化ET ...