南非的股价指数2025年以美元计价上涨了5成（约翰内斯堡证券交易所，Reuters） 截至11月底，MSCI新兴市场指数以美元计价比2024年年底上涨27%，以当地货币计价上涨25%，涨幅 均比MSCI发达国家指数的19%和16%更高。中国的中际旭创涨至逾4倍…… 2025年新兴市场国家股市的涨幅5年来首次超过发达国家的可能性很大。美元贬值和美国股市的估值偏 高，推动了新兴市场国家股票被重新审视并买入。也有观点认为，新兴市场国家股市此前被美国经济和 高科技企业强势压制，处于"寒冬时代"，现在是卷土重来的良机。 从新兴市场国家股票的代表性指数——MSCI新兴市场指数来看，截至11月底，以美元计价比2024年年 底上涨27%，以当地货币计价上涨25%，涨幅均比MSCI发达国家指数的19%和16%更高。 在雷曼危机以后，新兴市场国家股市占优势仅限于出现全球经济扩张的2017年、以及2020年从新冠疫情 导致的暴跌中复苏的时候等。美元一直强势，当地货币贬值带来的通货膨胀压力困扰着新兴市场国家经 济。新兴市场国家的经济增长预期下降，再加上海外投资者厌恶货币贬值造成的损失，也不再买入新兴 市场国家股票。 美国Lazard ...

Group 1 - The report outlines three potential market scenarios for the second half of the year, drawing parallels to 2019, 2020, and 2024, with the 2019 comparison being the most accepted [1][9] - The 2020 scenario emphasizes a bull market driven by synchronized policy responses from the US, Europe, and China, with a focus on large-cap growth assets [1][33] - The 2024 scenario suggests a potential double bottom formation, with a focus on high-dividend strategies, although it does not currently indicate a clear risk of a second bottom for A-shares [2][49] Group 2 - The 2019 comparison highlights a market characterized by a "push-up" pattern, with a rotation between consumption and technology sectors, driven by improving confidence in the transition from old to new economic drivers [3][15] - The report notes that the current market is experiencing a similar structural rotation as seen in 2019, with significant contributions from new consumption and technology sectors [3][29] - The analysis indicates that the current market environment is in a phase where new economic trends are expected to outperform old ones, particularly in sectors like hardware technology and new consumption models [4][49] Group 3 - The 2020 comparison points out that the market's recovery was supported by a global liquidity influx and a rebound in exports, which is not currently mirrored due to reduced reliance on US trade [33][38] - The report emphasizes that the structural characteristics of the 2020 market included a focus on large-cap growth and high-profit certainty, which attracted institutional investment [42][44] - The 2024 scenario indicates that while there are structural challenges, the domestic economy is expected to stabilize, with a target growth rate of around 5% achievable despite potential fluctuations [49][53]