Flash | 19 Oct 2025 17:16:49 ET │ 11 pages See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations In Sep'25, Tongda players' ASP further recovered as reflected in the 3 A- share players' monthly operational data. YTO/STO/YUNDA increased their ASP by Rmb 6/6/10 cents MoM, +1.1/+4.95/+0.5% yoy. YTO and STO outperformed on balance between volume and price, while Yunda continued to underperform with market share loss likely. YTO achieved 14.9% yoy revenue growth, wit ...

Core Insights - Orbis International is conducting a three-week training project in Ghana aboard the Orbis Flying Eye Hospital, aimed at enhancing local eye care capabilities and raising awareness about available resources [1][2][4] Group 1: Project Overview - This is the fourth visit of the Orbis Flying Eye Hospital to Ghana, with previous visits occurring between 1990 and 2019, contributing to the strengthening of the country's eye care system [2] - The training will focus on various eye conditions, including cataract, glaucoma, strabismus, and medical retina, with hands-on surgical training for eye care professionals [2][3] - The project involves collaboration with local institutions such as Korle Bu Teaching Hospital, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital, and the Ghana Ophthalmic Nursing School [1][2] Group 2: Support and Partnerships - The project is supported by the Alcon Foundation, FedEx, and OMEGA, with Alcon providing monetary donations and advanced ophthalmic equipment [5][6] - FedEx has donated the MD-10 aircraft for the Flying Eye Hospital and offers ongoing financial and operational support [6][7] - OMEGA has been a supporter of Orbis since 2011, contributing to various training projects and raising awareness of Orbis's mission [7][8] Group 3: Long-term Commitment and Impact - Orbis has been active in Ghana since 2014, focusing on pediatric ophthalmology and expanding eye care services across the country [9][10] - The organization has established 25 primary eye care units across 19 districts and improved facilities at national eye hospitals [10][11] - A permanent office in Accra has been opened to signify Orbis's long-term commitment to enhancing eye care in Ghana [11][12]

Core Insights - Dividend stocks are highlighted as valuable assets for portfolio stability, especially in varying interest rate environments [3][29] - The article suggests focusing on stocks with strong yields and quality indicators for investment in the second half of 2025 [4] Group 1: Dividend Stock Recommendations - **Sanofi (SNY)**: - Stock price: $50.90, Dividend yield: 3.1%, Payout ratio: 18.5%, Three-year FCF growth: 5.5% [7][10] - Sanofi is a French bio-pharmaceutical company with a strong revenue growth driven by its best-selling drug, Dupixent, and a robust drug pipeline [9][10][11] - **Schlumberger Limited (SLB)**: - Stock price: $59.97, Dividend yield: 3.3%, Payout ratio: 50.9%, Three-year FCF growth: 19.7% [20] - SLB is a leading provider of technology and services to the energy industry, with a strong balance sheet and a partnership with Nvidia for AI development [15][16] - **Fidelity National Financial (FNF)**: - Stock price: $34.26, Dividend yield: 3.3%, Payout ratio: 38.6%, Three-year FCF growth: 40.8% [19] - FNF maintains a healthy balance sheet and strong margins despite a slow housing market, focusing on dividends and strategic investments [21] - **ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO)**: - Stock price: $18.99, Dividend yield: 3.2%, Payout ratio: 55.9%, Three-year FCF growth: 34.2% [30] - ZTO is a major express delivery service provider in China, leveraging the growing e-commerce market while investing in AI for cost efficiency [22][24] - **Interparfums (IPAR)**: - Stock price: $94.50, Dividend yield: 3.4%, Payout ratio: 62.8%, Three-year FCF growth: 395.4% [31] - Interparfums has shown consistent revenue growth and aims for further increases in net sales and EPS, indicating strong market potential [27][28] Group 2: Investment Criteria - Stocks should have a dividend yield between 3% and 5%, a debt-to-equity ratio of 1 or less, and a payout ratio below 70% to ensure sustainability [6] - Companies should demonstrate dividend growth over the last three years and positive free cash flow growth to support higher dividends [6]

Upgrades - Seaport Research upgraded Constellation Energy (CEG) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $407, anticipating more datacenter power deal announcements and positive earnings revisions for thermal IPPs before year-end [2] - Wolfe Research upgraded Otis Worldwide (OTIS) to Outperform from Peer Perform with a price target of $109, noting that downside risk to Q4 outlook is widely anticipated but offsetting positive developments could drive more bullish positioning [3] - JPMorgan upgraded Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $80, up from $49, citing multiple launches that position the company on a path to breakeven [4] - Needham upgraded Penumbra (PEN) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $326, expecting significant growth acceleration in 2026 due to upcoming product launches and easing headwinds in China [4] - Deutsche Bank upgraded Northrop Grumman (NOC) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $700, up from $575, forecasting strong free cash flow post-2028 as key programs become cash profitable [5] Downgrades - HSBC downgraded Intel (INTC) to Reduce from Hold with a price target of $24, up from $21.25, indicating that while short-term deal announcements may drive stock higher, sustainable turnaround relies on fab execution [6] - JPMorgan downgraded FedEx (FDX) to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $274, down from $284, based on recent channel checks suggesting a lower multiple for FedEx's freight segment [6] - Oppenheimer downgraded Edwards Lifesciences (EW) to Perform from Outperform with no price target, indicating a structural nature to the downgrade despite potential TAVR upside in Q3 [6] - BofA downgraded Freshpet (FRPT) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $60, down from $81, citing deteriorating growth in the pet food category due to slowed pet adoptions and reduced consumer spending [6] - Oppenheimer downgraded Incyte (INCY) to Perform from Outperform with a price target of $82, up from $81, due to high expectations for several products and new management [6]

Core Insights - FedEx has expanded its intra-Asia air network by adding two new routes to enhance capacity and transportation options for regional shippers, responding to tariff-related volume declines from Asia to the U.S. [1][2] - The company reduced freighter activity from Asia to the U.S. by 25% in the fiscal quarter ending August 30, resulting in a $150 million profit impact due to reduced revenue from China [2] - New weekly flights connecting Incheon International Airport in Seoul to Hanoi, Vietnam, and a direct flight between Seoul and Taiwan have been introduced to support high-tech and e-commerce trade [3][4] Company Strategy - FedEx is strategically investing in its network to strengthen connections within Asia, driven by evolving trade dynamics, rising regional economies, and changing customer behaviors in e-commerce [5] - The new air freight lanes are designed to meet the growing demand in a region with strong e-commerce trade growth ahead of the holiday shopping season [5] Market Context - Intra-Asia trade constitutes nearly 60% of Asia's total exports, with ASEAN countries becoming China's largest trade partner, achieving bilateral trade of $963 billion in 2024 [5]

Group 1 - Whales have taken a bullish stance on FedEx, with 50% of detected trades being bullish and 0% bearish, indicating strong investor confidence [1] - The total amount for detected trades includes $77,259 for puts and $200,426 for calls, suggesting a preference for call options [1] - Over the last 3 months, whales have targeted a price range for FedEx between $110.0 and $240.0 [2] Group 2 - An analysis of volume and open interest reveals key insights into liquidity and interest levels for FedEx's options, particularly within the strike price range of $110.0 to $240.0 [3] - Recent options activity shows significant trades, including a bullish call sweep for a strike price of $240.0 with a total trade price of $36.0K [8] - FedEx's Federal Express segment accounted for 86% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, highlighting its dominance in the express package delivery market [9] Group 3 - Professional analysts have issued ratings for FedEx, with a consensus target price of $265.6, indicating a generally positive outlook [11] - Individual analyst ratings vary, with targets ranging from $243 to $296, reflecting differing levels of confidence among market experts [12] - Currently, FedEx's stock is trading at $239.02, up by 0.5%, with an anticipated earnings release in 80 days [14]

Summary of ZTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express - **Industry**: Transportation & Infrastructure - **Market**: Asia Pacific, primarily Mainland China Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics and Volume Growth - ZTO's volume is expected to grow by approximately 10% year-over-year (YoY) in 3Q25, while industry volume growth is projected to slow from 17% in 2Q25 to 13% YoY in 3Q25 due to soft consumption and competition from instant shopping [2][4] - The anti-involution initiatives are impacting the market, leading to decreased low-value parcels and limiting upside for ZTO's market share gains in 3Q25 [2][5] Earnings Outlook - Adjusted net profit (NP) growth for 3Q25 is likely to remain negative at -8% YoY, an improvement from previous expectations of a drop greater than 15% YoY [3][4] - Unit operating profit is expected to improve by Rmb0.03 quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to Rmb0.28 in 3Q25, influenced by various factors including anti-involution initiatives and market pricing [3][4] - There is mild potential for earnings growth to turn positive in 4Q25, with EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 raised by 9.1%, 5.8%, and 5.7% respectively [4][14] Price Target and Valuation - The price target remains unchanged at US$23.80, implying a 15x 2025 estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is below the domestic peer average of 20x [4][15] - The stock is currently trading at 12x 2025 estimated P/E, with a forward free cash flow (FCF) yield of 6-7%, which is attractive compared to the peer average of 1% [6][28] Competitive Landscape - More provinces are announcing price hikes amid anti-involution, but the competition outlook for 2026 remains uncertain [5][28] - ZTO aims to prioritize market share gains in the long run, despite potential disruptions from anti-involution initiatives [5][28] Financial Metrics - Current market capitalization is Rmb109,666 million, with a share price of US$19.24 as of September 25, 2025 [8] - The company has a projected non-GAAP net profit of Rmb9.3 billion for 2025, exceeding consensus estimates of Rmb8.9 billion [13][42] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential pricing competition resuming after peak season, which could lead to near-term earnings cuts and market share gains for ZTO [5][43] - The company faces challenges from intensified industry competition and potential market consolidation stagnation [43] Additional Important Information - ZTO's strategic initiatives include cash dividends with a 40% payout and share repurchases to enhance shareholder returns [28] - The company is focused on maintaining its market leadership position and improving unit profitability despite the competitive pressures [6][23]

Summary of S.F. Holding (002352.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: S.F. Holding (002352.SZ) - **Industry**: Logistics and Express Delivery Key Points Operating Performance - **August Operating Revenue**: Increased by 7.9% year-over-year (YoY) [1] - **Express Revenue Growth**: 14% YoY growth, driven by a 35% YoY increase in parcel volume [1] - **Supply Chain & International Revenue**: Decreased by 7.6% YoY, impacted by declining freight rates [1] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Dropped by 15% YoY, indicating aggressive pricing strategies in the economy express segment [1] Volume and Pricing Dynamics - **Parcel Volume**: Increased to 1,406 million in August, reflecting a 35% YoY growth [3] - **ASP Decline**: Average unit price fell to Rmb13.3, a 15% YoY decrease [3] Future Outlook - **3Q25E Earnings Growth**: Expected to face pressure due to increased investments and tough comparisons, but improvement is anticipated in 4Q25E [1] - **ASP Recovery**: Anticipated optimization of economy express services may lead to some recovery in ASP [1] Investment Recommendation - **Target Price**: Rmb59, representing a potential upside of 43.6% from the current price of Rmb41.08 [2] - **Expected Total Return**: 45.1%, including a 1.5% dividend yield [2] - **Rating**: Maintain "Buy" due to S.F. Holding's leading position in the premium express sector and international expansion prospects [1] Risks - **Market Growth Rebound**: Risks associated with an exceptionally strong or weak market rebound [9] - **Revenue Growth Variability**: Uncertainty in revenue growth from new business lines such as Freight and Cold Chain [9] - **Competitive Landscape**: Potential changes in market competition and pricing strategies could impact performance [9] - **Cost Control**: Better or worse-than-expected cost management could affect profitability [9] Additional Insights - **Investment Strategy**: The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method, assigning a 14x P/E to the express business and a 0.6x P/S to new business lines [8] - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately Rmb197.16 billion (US$27.71 billion) [2] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding S.F. Holding's performance, outlook, and investment potential, highlighting both opportunities and risks in the logistics sector.

Key Takeaways ZTO's earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised lower, signaling weak broker confidence.ZTO cut its 2025 parcel volume forecast to 38.8-40.1 billion from the prior 40.8-42.2 billion.ZTO shares have lost 18.7% over the past year, underperforming the broader trucking industry.Shares of ZTO Express (ZTO)  have had an unimpressive run in a year. Shares of this company have plunged 18.7% in the same period, underperforming the transportation-services industry’s14.5% decline.ZTO Stock's One-Year ...

Key Takeaways UPS Q2 2025 revenues fell 2.7% year over year amid weak demand and global uncertainties.Operating margin dropped to 8.8% from 9.5%, with daily volumes down 7.3% in the quarter.UPS cut Amazon business by over 50% by 2026, as the customer was less profitable.It is a well-documented fact that United Parcel Service (UPS) is suffering from revenue weakness. Revenue softness is basically stemming from the weak demand scenario due to the tariff-related uncertainty, high inflation and other geopolitic ...