Data from ADP — a global human resources and payroll services software — is used to complement the usual U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) numbers. However, the government shutdown in October and November further obscured just how jobs are doing, due to delayed BLS’ reporting. The next jobs report is expected to be released on Dec. 16. Meanwhile, ADP’s latest monthly jobs report suggests the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in November (2).Part of the problem in establishing a consensus on how the econom ...

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Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images The job market has been in a low-hiring, low-firing limbo and could be taking a turn for the worse, according to data from ADP. Key Takeaways Private employers lost 32,000 jobs in November, the third month of job losses in the last four. Job growth has been eroding for months, with tariffs playing a significant role in the slowdown. Weak job growth could push officials at the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the Fed's policy meeting next week. Yet ...

Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE for our pre-built playbook. Good morning to you. Time to get those resumes out because the employment data continues to show some weakness, right.>> Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, the ADP private payroll data really, if you think about it, crystallized what the Fed needs to be focusing on going forward, and that is the labor market. So the ADP private payroll data negative 32,000 jobs and this was a report focused on small business.Nicole, if you look at the numbers, uh businesses ...

Market Overview - The equity market is experiencing a decline, with concerns ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report and the Employment Situation report for September [1] - Major indexes are down, with the Dow at -349 points (-0.75%), S&P 500 at -30 points (-0.46%), Nasdaq at -137 points (-0.59%), and Russell 2000 at -10 points (-0.43%) [2] - Over the past five trading days, the S&P has decreased by -3.2% and the Russell by -5.2% [2] Employment Data - The ADP Weekly Jobs Report indicates a loss of 2,500 private-sector jobs last week, an improvement from the previous week's loss of 11,000, but still reflects a weak employment situation [3] - The upcoming September jobs numbers may align with the ADP data, potentially influencing market sentiment regarding a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4] Economic Reports - Upcoming releases include the October Imports & Exports report, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, and a delayed Factory Orders report [5] - The Homebuilders Confidence Index for November is expected to remain soft at a level of 37, unchanged from October [5] Home Depot Performance - Home Depot reported Q3 earnings of $3.74 per share, missing the Zacks consensus estimate of $3.81 by -1.84%, although revenues slightly exceeded expectations at $41.35 billion, a +0.88% increase [6] - The company has lowered its guidance for Q4 and the full fiscal year, leading to a -5% drop in shares during pre-market trading [7] - Year-to-date, Home Depot's stock is down -8% and -12% compared to the same time last year, affected by a prolonged weak housing cycle and immigration enforcement actions [7]

Payrolls firm ADP estimated that the private sector was shedding 11,250 jobs a week in the four weeks through Oct. 25 https://t.co/znCY5fmISr ...

Core Insights - The ADP payrolls firm reported that the private sector is losing approximately 11,250 jobs per week over the four-week period ending October 25 [1] Group 1 - The private sector job loss indicates a potential trend of declining employment in the economy [1]

Core Insights - The federal government shutdown has significantly impacted consumer sentiment in the US, bringing it to a near record low in November 2025, with the consumer sentiment index dropping to 50.3 from 53.6 in October, which is nearly three points below economists' expectations [1][2]. Consumer Sentiment - The consumer sentiment index's current level of 50.3 is the lowest since June 2022 and the lowest reported since at least 1978, indicating widespread concern among consumers about the economy due to the prolonged government shutdown [2]. - The decline in consumer sentiment is noted to be widespread across various demographics, including age, income, and political affiliation, reflecting a broad-based loss of confidence [3]. Employment Data - ADP reported that private employers added 42,000 new jobs in October, which, while better than expected, represents a significant slowdown compared to the three-month moving average of 188,000 jobs [4]. - Additionally, US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, marking a 175% increase from the previous year and the highest level of layoffs for any October since 2003 [4]. Economic Outlook - Analysts express concerns that the current economic management is leading to a loss of faith among Americans, as households face record debt and rising prices, contributing to the low consumer sentiment [5][6].

Labor Market Insights - The October ADP private-sector payroll report indicates an addition of +42K new jobs, surpassing expectations by +20K and reversing the previous month's downward revision of -29K [2] - Despite this positive report, the American labor market shows signs of decline, with an average gain of only +29K new jobs over the last four months, a decrease from +53K and +197K in the previous two four-month periods [3] Job Growth by Sector - Goods-producing jobs increased by +9K, while services jobs rose by +33K, with large firms (over 500 employees) contributing +73K to the job growth, contrasting with negative growth in small and medium-sized companies [4] - The Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector led job growth with +47K, followed by Education/Healthcare at +26K, while Leisure/Hospitality and Professional/Business Services saw declines of -6K and -15K respectively [5] Wage Trends - Wage gains for job stayers averaged +4.5%, while job changers saw an increase of +6.7%, indicating a narrowing historical gap and suggesting less urgency for employees to seek new positions [6] Company Earnings Reports - McDonald's (MCD) reported earnings of $3.22 per share, missing estimates of $3.35, but same-store sales increased by +3.6%, leading to a +3% rise in pre-market trading [7] - Humana (HUM) exceeded earnings expectations with $3.24 per share, a +11.34% beat, and revenues of $32.65 billion, but lowered guidance caused shares to drop by -5.5% [8] - Aurora Cannabis (ACB) reported earnings of $0.09 per share, a +200% surprise compared to expectations, with record quarterly revenues of $70.5 million, up +15% year-over-year, resulting in a +9% increase in pre-market trading [9]

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown is causing limitations on economic data, which may affect the Federal Reserve's policy decisions moving forward [1][2] - The lack of data could create uncertainty in market trajectories, potentially leading to a slower rate-cutting path by the Fed until data is restored [2][5] - The market currently appears unconcerned about the lack of data, which may actually benefit bullish sentiment [2][5] ADP Report Significance - The ADP employment report is gaining importance due to the lack of government data, with expectations for its release this week [6][7] - ADP has adjusted its methodology in recent years to better align with government data, despite previous criticisms regarding discrepancies [7][8] - Analysts are hoping for a positive bounce in the ADP report to bolster confidence in the labor market, especially amid rising layoff announcements [9][10] M&A Activity: Kimberly Clark and Kenview - Kimberly Clark is set to acquire Kenview for approximately $48.7 billion in a cash and stock deal, with Kenview's stock rising by 19% in pre-market trading [13][14] - The acquisition price reflects a discount, possibly due to regulatory hurdles or market conditions affecting Kenview [14][15] - Kenview, known for brands like Tylenol and Neutrogena, is seen as a strategic acquisition for Kimberly Clark to enhance efficiencies [15][16] Market Trends and Outlook - The market is experiencing higher highs and higher lows, with earnings expectations being revised upward for Q1, which is favorable for equities [18][19] - November and December are historically strong months for market performance, aided by low trading volumes that can amplify price movements [20][21] - Concerns remain regarding potential policy reversals and increased debt offerings from major companies, which could impact market dynamics [22][23][24]