January 15, 2026 11:40 PM GMT Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific Thailand PCB Trip Takeaways We visited four PCB companies in Thailand over January 12-14, including Victory Giant Technology (VGT), Dynamic PCB, Gold Circuit Electronics (GCE) and Zhen Ding Technology (ZDT). Demand is very robust, driven by volume growth, material upgrades and increased production complexity: The overall demand message delivered by the four companies we met with during the trip was consistent, particularly around ...

Summary of Global PCB and CCL Market for AI Servers Industry Overview - The global PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) market for AI servers is projected to reach **US$27 billion** and **US$19 billion** respectively by **2027E**, up from **US$17 billion** and **US$8 billion** in previous estimates, indicating a **140%** and **178% CAGR** from **2025-2027E** [2][8][40]. Key Drivers of Growth 1. **Demand Drivers**: - The demand is primarily driven by the rise of high-end AI servers, including GPU and ASIC servers, which require advanced PCBs and CCLs [1][40]. - High-end products such as **30+ layer multilayer PCBs**, **6L+ HDI**, and **M9+ CCL** are expected to account for **16%**, **23%**, and **14%** of total shipments for AI server applications by **2027E** [1][42]. 2. **Specification Upgrades**: - The transition to next-generation high-end AI servers is expected to significantly increase the value TAM (Total Addressable Market) [1][42]. - The adoption of **M9 materials** and **6L HDI** is anticipated to enhance product value and performance [42]. 3. **Capex Growth**: - Capex for PCB suppliers is expected to grow by **24%** YoY in **2025**, **23%** in **2026E**, and **15%** in **2027E**; for CCL suppliers, growth is projected at **38%**, **22%**, and **7%** respectively [1][57]. 4. **Utilization Rates**: - Utilization rates for PCB and CCL are expected to remain high despite capacity expansions, driven by the ramp-up of AI infrastructure [1][41]. Market Dynamics - **Shipment Growth**: - PCB shipments are projected to increase by **69% CAGR** to **2.5 million square meters** by **2027E**, while CCL shipments are expected to grow by **72% CAGR** to **78 million sheets** [2][41]. - **Average Selling Price (ASP) Increases**: - The ASP of AI server PCBs is expected to grow at **42% CAGR**, reaching **US$11,062** per square meter by **2027E**; CCL ASP is projected to increase by **62% CAGR** to **US$239** per sheet [43][40]. Gross Margins and Profitability - Major PCB and CCL companies are expected to see higher gross margins due to increasing sales of high-margin AI server products, tight supply, and rapid transitions to newer generations [44][40]. Investment Recommendations - Companies recommended for investment include **Shennan (002916.SZ)**, **GCE (2368.TW)**, **EMC (2383.TW)**, and **TUC (6274.TWO)**, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in the AI server PCB and CCL market [3]. Conclusion - The global PCB and CCL market for AI servers is poised for robust growth driven by technological advancements, rising demand, and significant increases in average selling prices. This presents a compelling investment opportunity in the sector, particularly for companies that are adapting to the evolving specifications and demands of AI infrastructure.

Summary of Shennan Circuit Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shennan Circuit (002916.SZ) - **Industry**: Printed Circuit Board (PCB) and Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) Key Points Incentive Plan - Shennan announced a Phase II Restricted Stock Incentive Plan, granting **15.16 million shares** (2.27% of total issued capital) to **667 key personnel** at a price of **RMB 114.72/share** [1][2] - The plan aims to align key talent with shareholder interests during the AI upcycle, with stringent unlocking criteria including: - Recurring net profit CAGR of **≥13%** compared to 2024 - Continuous ROE improvement to **>12.8%** by 2028 - Performance in the **75th percentile** of industry peers [1][2] Financial Performance Expectations - The incentive scheme is designed to ensure double-digit year-on-year growth during **2026-2028E** and to outperform major peers [2] - The exercise price reflects a **40% discount** from the closing price of **RMB 191.2/share** prior to the announcement [2] Market Position and Valuation - Shennan's target price is set at **RMB 281**, indicating an expected share price return of **46.1%** and a total return of **47.1%** [3] - The company is positioned as a key player in the domestic AI server and auto segments, contributing over **55%** of total PCB sales [7] - The target PE of **48x** forward reflects a **40-50% premium** to the sector average, justified by Shennan's leading position and technology leadership [7] Risks - Potential downside risks include: - Slower-than-expected growth in the China AI server market - Weaker demand for auto and ADAS systems - Lower-than-expected profits from the new plant in Wuxi - Higher laminate cost inflation [8] Conclusion - The recent stock price retreat of over **20%** from the year-to-date peak in early October has led to a reiteration of the **Buy** rating [1]

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Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the companies discussed are all "Buy" with target prices set for VGT at Rmb407.0, WUS at Rmb98.0, and DSBJ at Rmb95.0 [9][11][7]. Core Insights - The PCB industry is experiencing structural growth driven by AI demand, with companies like VGT, WUS, and DSBJ positioning themselves to capitalize on this trend [2][3][6]. - VGT expects a return to normal production levels in 4Q25 after a transition impact in 3Q25, with significant revenue growth anticipated from its largest AI customer in 2026 [1][2]. - WUS highlights that while funds and equipment are not bottlenecks for capacity expansion, human resources may pose challenges [3]. - DSBJ is set to benefit from the AI cycle, with expectations for breakeven in its Thailand FPCB business and a turnaround in precision components by 2026 [6]. Company Summaries VGT (Victory Giant) - VGT has accelerated capacity expansion for 2026-2027, with most equipment booked and an increase in localization rates [2]. - The company anticipates meaningful contributions from CSP clients in 2026, despite small batch production in 4Q25 [2]. WUS - WUS faces fierce competition in the mid-to-low end PCB market, with AI driving structural growth [3]. - The company reported a loss of approximately Rmb40 million in its Thailand plant in 3Q25, but noted improvements in product quality and employee proficiency [3]. DSBJ (Dongshan Precision) - DSBJ is focusing on AI infrastructure opportunities through its RPCB and optical transceiver businesses, with a significant capacity expansion plan of US$1 billion [6]. - The company plans to dispose of its LED business this year and expects revenue growth from key smartphone customers [6].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Taiwan PCB & Laminates, specifically focusing on the ABF/BT sector - **Key Companies Mentioned**: Nittobo, Ajinomoto, NYPCB, Unimicron, Kinsus, MGC, Nan Ya Plastics Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Positive Outlook for ABF/BT Sector**: - Nittobo and Ajinomoto's results indicate strong demand for T-glass and ABF, respectively, suggesting a favorable environment for the ABF/BT sector through 2026E [1][2][10] - Nittobo raised its guidance due to robust T-glass demand and ongoing supply shortages [1] 2. **Price Hikes and Capacity Expansion**: - Nittobo is negotiating price hikes of 20%-30% due to strong AI demand, with T-glass capacity expected to increase by 10%-20% in 2026 and double by 2027 [2] - New T-glass vendors, including Taiwan Glass Industry and Nanya Plastics, are expected to start production in 1Q26E [2] 3. **Robust Demand for ABF**: - Ajinomoto reported a 21% YoY increase in revenue from electronic materials, driven by AI server demand, with expectations for continued growth in the second half of FY25 [9] 4. **Investment Recommendations**: - Citi recommends buying shares of NYPCB and Unimicron in Taiwan, and MGC and Ajinomoto in Japan, based on their strong market positions and expected recovery in demand [1][10] Additional Important Insights 1. **T-glass Shortage**: - The T-glass shortage is anticipated to become more widespread, impacting the ABF/BT sector and downstream production [10] - The ongoing price increases in the sector are expected to benefit companies like NYPCB and Unimicron [10] 2. **Earnings Estimates**: - Kinsus, Nan Ya PCB, and Unimicron have varying earnings projections, with Kinsus expected to recover gradually from current challenges [19][20][28] - Unimicron is positioned to benefit from ABF tightness and potential demand recovery in the latter half of 2023 [28] 3. **Risks**: - Key risks for Kinsus include weaker smartphone demand and potential oversupply in the ABF market [21] - For NYPCB, risks include weaker-than-expected demand from key customers and severe T-glass shortages [26] - Unimicron faces risks from HDI business weakness and increased ABF supply [31] 4. **Valuation Metrics**: - Target prices for Kinsus, NYPCB, and Unimicron are set at NT$160, NT$360, and NT$220, respectively, based on DCF models reflecting their growth potential and market conditions [20][25][29] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the positive outlook for the ABF/BT sector, the implications of T-glass demand and supply dynamics, and the investment strategies recommended by Citi Research.

Summary of Conference Call on Taiwan PCB & Laminates Industry Industry Overview - The focus is on the ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) and BT (Bismaleimide Triazine) sectors, which are currently experiencing an upcycle driven by AI demand and T-glass shortages [2][3][12]. Key Points ABF and BT Sector Dynamics - **ABF Consumption and Pricing**: There is an expected increase in ABF consumption driven by AI chips, with a projected growth of +75% year-over-year in 2026E. This is supported by ABF specification migration and CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity ramp-up [4][29]. - **Price Hikes**: Anticipated price hikes for ABF starting in 4Q25E due to T-glass shortages and rising material costs. BT prices are also expected to rise, influenced by memory demand and copper/gold price increases [3][41][42]. T-glass Shortage - **Impact on ABF/BT Sector**: T-glass shortages are expected to intensify in 2H25, affecting both ABF and BT sectors. New suppliers from Taiwan, such as Taiwan Glass Industry and Nan Ya Plastics, are expected to join the supply chain, but significant relief is not anticipated until 2H26E [3][17][25]. - **Supply Chain Challenges**: Current T-glass suppliers are unable to meet demand, leading to tight supply conditions for BT substrates. This situation is exacerbated by rising AI demand, which is consuming T-glass resources [17][24]. Company-Specific Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: - NYPCB has been upgraded to "Buy" with a target price raised to NT$360 from NT$175, driven by demand for high-speed switches and potential ASIC project wins [5][6]. - Unimicron is also favored, with a target price increase to NT$220 from NT$165, supported by improving yields in compute boards [5][6]. - Kinsus remains a "Buy" with a target price raised to NT$160 from NT$115, benefiting from BT price hikes and potential orders from tier-1 ABF players [5][6]. Financial Projections - **Earnings Estimates**: - Kinsus: EPS projected to increase from 3.69 to 5.98 in the next fiscal year. - Nan Ya PCB: EPS expected to rise from 1.89 to 2.30. - Unimicron: EPS forecasted to grow from 2.09 to 3.11 [6][9]. Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: Potential FX headwinds could dampen profitability in 2H25E. The balance of supply and demand for ABF is uncertain, with several conditions needing to be met for improvement in 2H26E [5][44]. - **Supply Chain Vulnerabilities**: Companies like AMD and AWS may face challenges if T-glass shortages persist, as they have lower bargaining power compared to larger players like Nvidia and Broadcom [53][56]. Conclusion - The ABF and BT sectors are poised for growth driven by AI demand and T-glass shortages, with significant price hikes expected. Companies like NYPCB, Unimicron, and Kinsus are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, although risks related to supply chain dynamics and market conditions remain [2][5][12].

Summary of Shennan Circuit (002916.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shennan Circuit - **Industry**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) manufacturing - **Market Position**: Leading PCB supplier in China, focusing on telecom and aeronautics sectors, with a "3-in-1" model encompassing PCB, PCB assembly, and IC substrate packaging [20][21] Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue Growth**: - 9M25 revenue increased by 28.4% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB 16.754 billion, with 3Q25 growth at 33.3% compared to 25.6% in 1H25 [1] - **Net Profit**: - Attributable net profit surged 56.3% YoY to RMB 2.326 billion, with 3Q25 growth accelerating to 92.9% compared to 37.8% in 1H25 [1] - **Earnings Estimates**: - 2025-27 earnings estimates raised by 13-15%, target price increased to RMB 281 from RMB 230 based on a 48x PE for 2026E [1][22] 4Q25 Outlook - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected 4Q25 revenue growth of 33% YoY to RMB 6.427 billion, similar to 3Q growth [3] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Anticipated net profit growth of 115% to RMB 838 million, driven by a low base in 4Q24 [3] Capacity Expansion Plans - **New Plants**: - Thai plant to start in mid-2025, targeting annual revenue of RMB 1.3 billion - Nantong Phase 4 for AI-PCB to commence in 4Q25, with projected annual revenue of RMB 1.5 billion [4] - **Capital Expenditure**: High capex of around RMB 3 billion per annum planned to support AI infrastructure growth [4] Margin and Cost Insights - **Gross Margin**: - 3Q25 gross margin improved to 31.4%, with net margin rising to 15.3% [11] - **Material Cost Inflation**: - Major CCL players increased ASP by RMB 5-10 per sheet in October due to a ~10% rise in copper costs [12] Segment Performance - **PCB and Substrate Segments**: - PCB segment gross margin reached a record high of 36% in 3Q25, with AI-PCB margins estimated at over 40% [10] - Substrate gross margin improved significantly to ~20% in 3Q25 from 15% in 1H25 [10] Investment Strategy - **Recommendation**: Buy rating maintained, with a preference for Shengyi Tech over Shennan due to higher operating leverage in the CCL industry [1][21] - **Market Exposure**: Over 80% revenue exposure to PCB-related businesses, with strong growth potential in AI servers and automotive sectors [21] Risks - **Downside Risks**: - Slower-than-expected growth in AI server demand, weaker automotive demand, and higher laminate cost inflation could impact performance [23] Conclusion - Shennan Circuit is positioned for significant growth driven by its strong market position in the PCB sector, ongoing capacity expansions, and favorable industry dynamics, despite potential risks from market fluctuations and cost pressures [1][21][23]

Summary of PCB Tech Conference Insights Industry Overview - The conference focused on the Indian PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, highlighting its growth potential and challenges within the consumer electronics sector [1] - The Indian PCB market is projected to reach USD 4.2 billion in FY25, with a significant portion of demand (approximately 88%) currently met by imports [4][4] Key Takeaways 1. **Growth Trajectory**: - The Indian PCB industry is on a clear growth path, supported by a large domestic market and government initiatives such as Anti-Dumping Duties on low-end PCBs and incentives for high-end manufacturing [2][2] - The market is expected to grow to USD 14-15 billion by 2030, indicating substantial opportunities [4][4] 2. **Competitive Landscape**: - Thailand is emerging as a significant PCB manufacturing hub, with 60 new factories established by global players in the last 3-4 years, contributing to a market expected to exceed USD 12-13 billion post-2025 [2][4] - India's global market share remains low at 1%, trailing behind China (approximately 50%) and Thailand [4][4] 3. **Sustainability and Profitability**: - Sustainable profitability in the PCB sector will depend on continuous technological upgrades due to global oversupply [2][2] - Companies like Wipro are expanding capacity in Copper Clad Laminates, aiming for 400,000 sheets per month for export [6][6] 4. **Challenges**: - **Technological Deficiencies**: Significant gaps exist in advanced PCB manufacturing, particularly for high-density interconnects (HDI) and smartphone applications, which require advanced techniques not currently available in India [7][7] - **Talent Shortages**: There is a notable shortage of skilled labor, including process specialists and R&D personnel, which is critical for the industry's growth [10][10] - **Infrastructure Issues**: Key challenges include environmental compliance, power stability, and reliance on imported machinery and raw materials [10][10] 5. **Demand Drivers**: - High-growth sectors identified include Automotive, AI, Industrial, Medical, Aerospace & Defense, and 5G base stations [8][8] - Collaboration between PCB manufacturers, ODMs, and OEMs is essential for improving design manufacturability and reducing defects [8][8] 6. **Manufacturing Capabilities**: - Current production is primarily focused on single and double-sided PCBs, with some companies advancing to 8-layer PCBs for specific applications [8][8] - The industry has seen significant investment announcements, with up to INR 100 billion allocated for PCB manufacturing incentives [8][8] 7. **Raw Material Localization**: - Approximately 80% of PCB chemistries are available domestically, but key materials like Copper Clad Laminates are still largely imported [10][10] - Efforts are underway to establish local sources for critical raw materials to reduce dependency on imports [10][10] Conclusion - The Indian PCB industry presents a long-term growth opportunity, but companies must navigate significant challenges related to technology, talent, and infrastructure to capitalize on this potential [1][2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the emergence of new industrial opportunities in cities like Zhuhai, driven by advancements in AI computing power and the expansion of the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, particularly through significant investments like the 5 billion yuan project by Jingwang Electronics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Investment - Jingwang Electronics has initiated the largest PCB industry expansion project in China this year, with a total investment of 5 billion yuan in Zhuhai, aiming to enhance its production capacity for high-end HDI boards [1][3]. - The PCB industry is experiencing a surge due to the growth of sectors such as electric vehicles, 5G, and AI, with the global PCB market expected to reach 78.6 billion USD by 2025, driven by high-end products [3][9]. - The expansion of Jingwang Electronics is expected to increase its annual output value in Zhuhai to over 10 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the local economy [1][4]. Group 2: Regional Development and Competitive Landscape - Zhuhai has over 100 PCB companies, ranking third in Guangdong in terms of output value, and is becoming a hub for high-end PCB manufacturing as companies from Shenzhen relocate there [1][6]. - The local government and enterprises share a vision for high-end manufacturing, with efforts to transition from mid-range to high-end PCB production, particularly in AI server and automotive electronics [4][10]. - The PCB industry in Zhuhai has seen significant growth, with 174 companies generating 44.4 billion yuan in output, accounting for 15.2% of China's total and 8.5% globally [6][10]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Challenges - The global PCB market is evolving, with a projected annual growth rate of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029, driven by demand in AI, data centers, and automotive electronics [9][10]. - To remain competitive, Zhuhai must enhance its high-end manufacturing capabilities and adapt to the shifting dynamics of the PCB industry, as companies increasingly look to Southeast Asia for production [10].