2026 年 02 月 01 日 基础化工 染料价格涨价兑现，关注 SAF 产业链变 化 事件： ①1 月 28 日，浙江龙盛宣布各类分散染料价格上调 1000-2000 元 /吨不等；据百川盈孚，1 月 29 日，大柴旦乐青科技有限公司年 产 1 万吨 H 酸装置停车检修、大柴旦和信科技有限公司年产 0.5 万吨 H 酸装置停车检修。同日 H 酸市场均价+0.63%（+250 元/吨） 至 4.03 万元/吨）；活性染料市场均价+4.55%（+1000 元/吨）至 2.30 万元/吨。②据百川盈孚，1 月 26 日，SAF 欧洲 FOB 高端价 +1.42%（+30 美元/吨）至 2140 美元/吨。 中间体供应屡遭不可抗力，分散+活性染料涨价兑现 活性染料生产必需 H 酸，环保及安全生产压力大。H 酸是生产活 性、酸性和直接染料的关键中间体原料之一，但由于 H 酸生产过 程中废水难以处理且涉及高危磺化、硝化反应，长期以来行业环 保及安全生产压力较大，较多中小型落后产能陆续淘汰。2025 年 以来，部分企业执行检修计划、H 酸大厂内蒙古乌海市亚东精细 化工厂发生火灾事故，叠加中央第二生态环境保护督察组督察内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a situation where companies are experiencing increased production without corresponding profit growth. The industry's operating revenue profit margin has declined from 8.03% in 2021 to an expected 4.85% in 2024. However, since 2025, some sub-industries have begun to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 10.56% in net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters, indicating a gradual stabilization and recovery in industry profitability [2][3]. Supply Side - Investment in fixed assets in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry has turned negative since June 2025, with capital expenditures in the basic chemical industry and several sub-industries declining for multiple consecutive quarters. The current expansion cycle in the industry is nearing its end. In September, policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the petrochemical industry were introduced to address low-price and disorderly competition and to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. Sub-industries such as silicone, caprolactam, and PTA polyester have responded to these "anti-involution" measures by either issuing or formulating industry guidelines. It is anticipated that there will be stricter approvals for new chemical product capacities, and the elimination of backward production capacity (such as small scale, high energy consumption, and high pollution) will accelerate, effectively alleviating the issue of supply surplus in the petrochemical industry [2][3]. Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to see a moderate recovery due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and pausing balance sheet reductions, supported by monetary and fiscal policy stimuli. Emerging demand from sectors such as new energy, SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel), and AI continues to drive the need for key chemical materials that support technological upgrades in industries [3]. - The overseas chemical capacity reduction, driven by high energy costs and aging facilities, has led to a wave of plant closures in the European chemical industry since 2025. Currently, China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market, with a well-established domestic petrochemical industry chain. As overseas capacity continues to clear and demand is expected to recover, Chinese chemical companies are likely to see an increase in global market share, accelerating the digestion of surplus capacity [3]. Macro and Chemical Product Prices - As of December 2025, the manufacturing PMI index was reported at 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion. The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) was reported at 3927 points, a decrease of 9.4% from 4333 points at the beginning of the year, reflecting a decline in the ex-factory prices of major chemical products [3]. Oil Prices - In 2025, international oil prices exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, with Brent crude futures averaging approximately $69.15 per barrel and WTI crude futures averaging about $65.87 per barrel. This fluctuation was influenced by a combination of factors, including OPEC+'s gradual production increases, geopolitical conflicts, and macroeconomic sentiment. OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases at the beginning of 2026 to alleviate surplus pressures after a cumulative increase of 411,000 barrels per day from October to December. The demand from non-OECD countries, along with aviation fuel and petrochemical raw material needs, has become a major support for oil prices. Major institutions have narrowed their demand growth expectations for 2025-2026 to a range of 700,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day [4]. Investment Recommendations - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see a recovery in overall profits due to moderate oil prices and reduced cost fluctuations. The industry is also experiencing a shift towards "reducing oil and increasing chemicals," supported by clear anti-involution policy signals. Recommended companies include China Petroleum and Rongsheng Petrochemical [5][6]. - In the potassium fertilizer sector, potassium salt resources are expected to remain scarce, with a tight balance in global supply and demand over the next 2-3 years. Recommended company: Yara International, which holds significant potassium salt mining rights in Laos [6]. - In the phosphorus chemical sector, the demand for lithium iron phosphate in energy storage is expected to enhance the marginal pull on phosphorus ore demand, leading to a revaluation of phosphorus ore. Recommended companies include Chuanheng Co. and Yuntianhua [6]. - In the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sector, the EU has mandated a gradual increase in SAF blending ratios, with global SAF demand expected to double to 2 million tons by 2025. Recommended company: Zhuoyue New Energy, a leading domestic biodiesel enterprise [6][7].