Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The dye industry is expected to see a recovery in demand due to both domestic and international factors, with China maintaining its position as the world's largest producer, consumer, and exporter of dyes, with an annual production exceeding 900,000 tons [5][18] - The supply structure of dyes is improving, with leading companies possessing significant pricing power due to the elimination of smaller, less compliant enterprises [7][29] - The price increase of dyes is driven by the intermediate production process, benefiting companies with integrated supply chains [8][48] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - The dye industry is characterized by diverse products and applications, with significant growth in downstream printing and dyeing fabric production, which is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.59% from 2018 to 2024 [20] - China's dye export volume is expected to reach 272,000 tons in 2024, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, supported by a compound annual growth rate of 7.51% from 2020 to 2025 [23] Environmental and Regulatory Landscape - The dye industry faces stringent environmental regulations, leading to the gradual elimination of high-pollution, low-compliance small enterprises, thus optimizing the industry structure [26][29] - Recent regulatory changes have increased compliance costs for smaller players, further consolidating market share among larger firms [30] Intermediate Supply and Price Trends - The production of key intermediates, such as H acid and reducing agents, is critical for dye manufacturing, with recent supply disruptions leading to price increases [40][45] - The price of reducing agents has surged from 25,000 yuan/ton to approximately 50,000 yuan/ton, directly impacting the production costs of disperse dyes [43] Key Companies in the Industry - Zhejiang Longsheng is a leading enterprise with a dye production capacity of 300,000 tons and a strong integrated supply chain [51] - RunTu Co. has a well-established dye industry system with a total dye production capacity of 238,000 tons [53] - Annoqi focuses on differentiated dye products and is integrating AI technology into its production processes [54] - Jinhua Group has a dye production capacity of 95,000 tons and is expanding its product portfolio through strategic acquisitions [56]

Group 1 - The company, Jinji Co., announced on February 11 that its fine chemical products project (Phase I) includes H-acid products, with an annual production capacity of 8,000 tons [2]

Group 1 - The company is currently developing a production capacity of 13,000 tons per year for H acid [1] - The first phase of the fine chemical product project includes H acid with a production capacity of 8,000 tons per year [1] - For specific trial production progress, the company advises referring to relevant periodic reports or temporary announcements [1]

太平洋证券发布研报称，根据百川盈孚数据，截至2月8日，H酸价格为4.03万元/吨，同比增长11.81%； 分散染料中间体还原物(2-氨基-4-乙酰氨基苯甲醚)价格为3.8万元/吨，同比增长约50%；分散染料价格 为19元/公斤，较年初上涨11.76%；活性染料价格为23元/公斤，较年初上涨4.55%。2024年Q3前后，H 酸价格处于历史低位区间，约1.6–2万元/吨。受乌海亚东火灾、安全环保督察强化及企业密集检修影 响，供应持续收紧，推动H酸价格逐步从底部抬升。 太平洋证券主要观点如下： 染料行业上下游产品同时涨价，行业景气度底部回升 H酸是活性、酸性、直接染料的关键中间体。2024年Q3前后，H酸价格处于历史低位区间，约1.6–2万 元/吨。受乌海亚东火灾、安全环保督察强化及企业密集检修影响，供应持续收紧，推动H酸价格逐步从 底部抬升。 根据百川盈孚数据，截至2月8日，H酸价格为40250元/吨，同比增长11.81%。受此带动，活性染料价格 涨至23元/公斤，较年初上涨4.55%。与此同时，分散染料核心中间体还原物(2-氨基-4-乙酰氨基苯甲 醚/2,6-二氯-4-硝基苯胺等)价格自去年约2.5万元/吨上 ...

Group 1: Chemical Industry - The prices of various chemical products are on the rise, and the cancellation of export tax rebates is accelerating exports, leading to an improved supply-demand balance in the industry. Leading companies and products at price bottoms have strong profit recovery potential [6] - China, as the world's largest dye producer, is experiencing a concentration increase due to high pollution causing small and medium enterprises to exit the market. The price of disperse dyes has risen for the first time since October 2025, with a production gap of over 10% for intermediates like H acid, potentially benefiting leading companies [6] - Runhua Co. announced a price increase for disperse dyes starting February 5, 2026, due to significant increases in raw material prices. The company has strategically extended its industrial chain to secure raw material supply [6] Group 2: Robotics Industry - Tesla plans to convert its Fremont factory production line, originally for Model S and Model X, to manufacture Optimus humanoid robots. The company is entering the technical finalization and capacity construction phase for its robots, with China having a complete supply chain and large-scale manufacturing capabilities [10] - Wuzhou Xinchun, involved in the robotics sector, saw its stock price surge on February 6, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the robotics industry [11] Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry - Musk's team is reportedly assessing the Chinese photovoltaic supply chain. GCL-Poly announced a significant breakthrough in its perovskite tandem solar cell technology, achieving a certified photoelectric conversion efficiency of 33.31%, leading to a stock price increase [14] - Analysts are optimistic about the demand for space photovoltaics, which is expected to grow significantly, and they are particularly bullish on photovoltaic equipment suppliers like Aotewei, which saw a maximum stock price increase of 15.5% [16]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Jihua Group Co., Ltd. is undergoing a potential change in its controlling shareholder, which may impact its strategic direction and financial stability [1][8]. Group 1: Company Background - Jihua Group, founded in 1990 and headquartered in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in June 2017 [9]. - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of dyes, dye intermediates, and other chemical products, recognized as the third-largest dye production base globally [10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Jihua Group reported total revenue of 1.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.87%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of only 14.44 million yuan, down 88.74% [11]. - The company has faced recurring losses in its net profit excluding non-recurring items, with figures of -244 million yuan in 2022 and -243 million yuan in 2023, before a slight recovery to 30 million yuan in 2024 [11]. - Accounts receivable surged by 101.95% in the first half of 2025, attributed to a decline in sales collection rates amid intense market competition [13]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The dye industry is characterized by fierce competition and declining product prices, leading to poor performance in recent years [11]. - The global demand for textiles has weakened, and competition from Southeast Asia, along with high raw material prices, has contributed to a slow recovery [14]. - The chemical industry faces increasing environmental pressures under the "dual carbon" policy, necessitating a transformation for traditional high-pollution and high-energy-consuming dye enterprises [15]. Group 4: Potential Changes in Control - The planned transfer of shares by the controlling shareholder, Jinhui Electromechanical, is interpreted as a strategic adjustment by the actual controller, Shao Bojin, possibly in response to long-term capital needs [8]. - Market speculation suggests that potential new controlling parties could include industrial capital with chemical industry integration capabilities or local state-owned platforms aiming to facilitate the company's green transformation [16][18].

智通财经APP获悉，中邮证券发布研报称，染料行业分散染料与活性染料价格近期显著走强，核心驱动 力是关键原料还原物价格飙升及环保政策趋严。原料成本高企与环保门槛提升，严重挤压了未实现产业 链一体化配套的中小企业生存空间，有望加速行业洗牌。建议关注配备关键中间体的染料厂家以及产能 规模大的头部企业。 中邮证券主要观点如下： 行业格局变动加速 1）本次分散染料涨价最核心的驱动力来自上游关键中间体还原物的价格飙升。还原物系分散染料的重 要原料，其价格已从去年的2.5万元/吨大幅上涨至3.8万元/吨，涨幅超过50%。还原物在染料生产成本中 占比高达20%-30%，其价格刚性上涨直接传导至下游染料。对于无法实现产业链配套的小企业而言，这 将是一笔无法消化的硬性成本，若不向下传导，利润空间将受到挤压，因此该行认为此次涨价传导顺畅 且具有一定持续性。此外，若还原物价格持续上涨，中小染料厂面临的成本压力将远高于产业链布局完 善的头部厂商，可能被迫减产或退出，从而加速行业洗牌，头部厂商将拥有更强的定价权。 2）近年来环保监管持续趋严，中国是全球最大的染料生产国，印染作为高污染、高能耗行业，将接收 更强的环保督察压力。工信部等五部 ...

抓住化工涨价行情系列之一——染料 20260130 摘要 还原物市场供应紧张是染料涨价主因，主要生产商包括宁夏中胜新、龙 胜和闰土，但实际产能未完全释放，开工率不足 80%，导致市场对涨价 预期强烈。 博奥股份因库存不足率先提价并停产，加剧市场供应紧张，推动整体价 格上涨。龙胜、闰土等企业随后跟进涨价，头部企业协调一致或将进一 步推高市场价格。 分散染料市场中，龙胜侧重环保及高牢度产品，常规品盈利困难；润土 产能与龙胜相当，吉华较小；中圣新通过收购增加成品产能至约 2 万吨。 下游客户对当前染料涨价接受度尚可，因前期备货不足，只能接受新价 格。染厂库存普遍较低，多为即时调货，小幅涨价仍可承受。 H 酸等原材料也在涨价，部分大厂提前停产检修，可能与市场调控有关。 企业通过调整产量和价格应对市场需求变化，H 酸价格上涨若能维持， 成交价有望达到每吨 3.5 万元。 中盛新与龙胜存在竞争关系，曾导致分散染料价格下降。若两家公司达 成一致，分散染料价格或大幅上涨，头部企业的态度是未来涨价的重要 驱动因素。 还原物扩产困难，现有工艺存在能耗高、收率低等问题，且新增产能难 以获批。龙胜还原物基本自给自足，中盛新产能是龙胜 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the chemical industry, specifically focusing on the supply and pricing dynamics of H acid and active dyes, which are critical intermediates in the dye manufacturing process [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **H Acid Supply Tightness**: Major H acid production facilities, including Dabaidan Leqing Technology Co., Ltd. and Dabaidan Hexin Technology Co., Ltd., have undergone maintenance, leading to a supply shortage. The average market price of H acid increased by 0.63% (+250 CNY/ton) to 40,300 CNY/ton, while the average price of active dyes rose by 4.55% (+1,000 CNY/ton) to 23,000 CNY/ton [1]. - **Environmental and Safety Pressures**: The production of H acid faces significant environmental and safety challenges due to difficult wastewater treatment and hazardous reactions, resulting in the gradual elimination of many small and outdated production capacities [1]. - **Cost Transmission Mechanism**: Historical data indicates that during the 2019 Q1 incident, H acid prices reached 80,000 CNY/ton, causing active dye prices to spike to 33,000 CNY/ton. H acid consumption in active dye production is substantial, accounting for 30-50% of production costs, which facilitates effective cost transmission [2]. - **Production Capacity Concerns**: Current effective H acid production capacity is below 60,000 tons, with a supply gap exceeding 10%. The recent maintenance of two major H acid manufacturers may further reduce effective capacity by over 25% [2]. Potential Investment Opportunities - **Jinji Co., Ltd.**: With an active dye production capacity of 45,000 tons and H acid capacity of 5,000 tons, the company has a market capitalization of approximately 4.3 billion CNY. A 10,000 CNY/ton increase in active dye prices could contribute an estimated 400 million CNY to performance [3]. - **Runtu Co., Ltd.**: The company has an active dye production capacity of 100,000 tons and a disperse dye capacity of 118,000 tons, with a market capitalization of around 13.6 billion CNY. A 10,000 CNY/ton increase in active dye prices could yield an estimated 880 million CNY in performance [3]. - **Zhejiang Longsheng**: This company possesses 70,000 tons of active dye capacity and 140,000 tons of disperse dye capacity, along with H acid and related reductants. A 10,000 CNY/ton increase in active dye prices could lead to an estimated 620 million CNY in performance [3]. Additional Important Information - The ongoing environmental inspections and incidents, such as the fire at the Yadong Fine Chemical Plant in Inner Mongolia, may exacerbate supply pressures for H acid, further impacting the active dye market [2].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨基础化工 [Table_Title] 染料行业点评：底部多年，中间体以及染料 景气有望上行 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 根据百川盈孚，本周分散染料市场价格上涨，截至到目前，分散黑 ECT300%市场均价在 19 元 /公斤，较上周同期均价上涨 1 元/公斤，涨幅为 5.56%。活性染料市场走势上行，活性黑 WNN150%市场均价在 23 元/公斤左右，较上周同期均价上涨 1 元/公斤，涨幅为 4.55%。染料 中间体市场整体偏暖运行，原料价格增加，成本端支撑力度偏强，各企业上调产品对外报价， 市场成交价格随之小幅抬升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 基础化工 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 染料行业点评：底部多年，中间体以及染料景气 2] 有望上行 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 马太 王呈 %% %% %% %% research.95579 ...