Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in gold tax policy has led to significant market disruptions, particularly in the Shenzhen gold market, resulting in increased price volatility and a widening gap between purchase and recovery prices [3][4][9]. Pricing Chaos - The gold pricing in the Shenzhen market is currently experiencing a "temporary chaos," with prices fluctuating rapidly. For instance, the price per gram rose from approximately 989 CNY to 993 CNY within a single day, including a tax component of about 70 CNY per gram [5][6]. - The gap between buying and selling prices has expanded to over 100 CNY per gram, compared to just 27 CNY six months ago [6][9]. Market Reaction - Despite a busy market, actual purchases have decreased significantly, with many consumers opting to wait and see due to the sudden price hikes. Only essential buyers, such as those preparing for weddings, are making purchases [9][12]. - The "one-price" gold products, which have smaller price adjustments and appeal to younger consumers, are gaining popularity as gifts [9]. Tax Policy Impact - The recent tax policy changes, effective from November 1, have led to increased costs for non-member jewelry brands, as their input tax deduction rates have decreased from 13% to 6%, resulting in higher VAT payments and potential profit pressure [11][12]. - The gold market's supply chain involves raw material suppliers, gold manufacturers, and retailers, with the tax burden now affecting the entire chain [12][13]. Long-term Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that non-member jewelry companies will face increased profit pressures in the short term, while member companies may be less affected. Over time, the industry is expected to consolidate, with brands that can set prices showing greater resilience [16]. - The policy aims to streamline transactions and reduce capital occupation, which could lead to increased industry concentration and improved operational efficiency in the gold jewelry sector [16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in gold tax policy has led to significant price discrepancies in the gold jewelry market, causing confusion and a cautious approach among merchants and consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the tax policy change on November 1, the gold price gap between purchase and recovery has widened from over 20 yuan to more than 100 yuan per gram within a few days [1][2]. - On November 6, the market price for gold jewelry fluctuated, with a reported price of approximately 989 yuan per gram, which later increased to 993 yuan per gram, including about 70 yuan per gram in tax [2][4]. - The main recovery price remained around 898 yuan per gram, indicating a significant increase in the buy-sell price difference compared to just 27 yuan per gram six months prior [2]. Group 2: Impact on Consumer Behavior - The new tax policy has led to a decrease in actual transactions, with many consumers opting to wait and observe the market rather than making purchases, except for those with urgent needs [4][6]. - The demand for "one-price" gold products, which have smaller price adjustments and appeal to younger consumers, has increased, becoming a popular choice in the gift market [4][8]. Group 3: Tax Policy Implications - The tax policy changes have resulted in increased costs for non-member jewelry brands, as their input tax deduction rates have decreased from 13% to 6%, leading to higher VAT payments and potential profit pressure [6][8]. - The gold price increase is primarily attributed to the heightened tax burden on upstream suppliers, which has raised raw material costs for jewelers [7][8]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that non-member jewelry companies will face increased profit pressures in the short term, while member companies may be less affected [8]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the industry will see increased concentration, with brands that possess pricing power demonstrating greater resilience in performance [8].

Core Viewpoint - Recent surges in international and domestic gold prices have led to multiple jewelry brands announcing price increases for gold products, reflecting a broader trend in the market [1][5]. Group 1: Price Increases by Companies - Lao Pu Gold announced its third price increase of the year, with retail prices expected to rise by 12% to 18% by the end of October [2]. - Chow Sang Sang has already implemented price increases for gold jewelry, with price hikes ranging from 25% to 35% since October 16 [4]. - Chow Tai Fook plans to adjust its gold jewelry prices by approximately 15% by the end of the month [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increases - The rapid increase in gold prices began in late August, with a rise of over 25% in London gold spot prices from August 21 to October 15 [5]. - Key drivers include rising global risk aversion, declining confidence in the US dollar, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7]. - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, with a reported addition of 166 tons in Q2 of this year, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Market institutions predict that gold prices may continue to rise due to factors such as further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, high US government debt, and increasing geopolitical risks [7]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for gold prices in December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing diversification in investments as a potential driver for increased ETF holdings [7]. - Despite the bullish outlook, there are concerns about potential profit-taking and the impact of alternative investments, such as cryptocurrencies, on gold's safe-haven status [7].