暑期档内容热播或带动核心业务边际改善；新规释放长期想象空间 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | | 2.30 | 美元 2.90↑ | +26.1% | | | 爱奇艺 (IQ US) | | | | | | 交银国际研究 公司更新 看好核心业务边际改善，微剧、IP 消费品、线下乐园、海外业务布局稳步推 进，或进一步贡献商业化增量。考虑广电新规带来长期内容创新及效率优化空 间，市场投资热情上涨带动估值中枢上移，基于 15 倍市盈率，上调目标价至 2.9 美元（原为 2.1 美元），较现价有 26%上涨空间，维持买入。 盈利预测变动 | | | —————2025E————— | | | —————2026E————— | | | —————2027E————— | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币百万 | 新预测 | 前预测 | 变动 | 新预测 | 前预测 ...

近年来 ，文娱行业中与中年女性（后称"中女"）相关的内容，日益受到市场青睐。2025边，从开年的真人秀综艺《一路繁花》姐届们惊艳出圈，紧随其 后的《乘风破浪》姐姐们的才艺刷屏，再到脱口秀"中女"选手们的精彩输出，以及8月上线两期的观察类综艺《姐姐当家》……以"中女"为主角的综艺节 目更容易收获关注。 其实，早在几年前女性议题的综艺就层出不穷，也有自己的受众圈层。但近年来，随着社会审美认知的提升，以及对女性保护和尊重的升级，"含姐量"高 的节目前所未有丰富且多元。这样的现象为行业拓宽了更广阔的创作边界，无论是有趣的、锋利的、大众共鸣、个性化的议题，得以被充分地讨论和观 察，也为各年龄的女性寻找到更丰富的人生样本。 01 无滤镜、无剧本 姐姐的真实生活"好看"吗？ "董璇竟然二婚了，而且对方是小她很多岁的张维伊！" "张维伊真没钱付饭费吗？""不看好董璇和这个小男友的婚姻。"社交媒体上关于董璇再婚的消息， 引发网友的讨论。不少网友表示，自己是在短视频平台上看完切片才跑去看了正片。的确，董璇与张维伊恋情几乎算是在这档节目中"官宣"的，从而成就 了《姐姐当家》开播的第一个引流看点。 第二期，张维伊因为没钱付款，董璇抢 ...

Core Insights - The competition between Tencent Video's "脱口秀和Ta的朋友们2" (Talk Show and Its Friends 2) and iQIYI's "喜剧之王单口季2" (Comedy King Stand-up Season 2) is intensifying, with both shows aiming to capture audience attention during the summer of 2024 [1][3][18] - iQIYI's "喜剧之王单口季1" (Comedy King Stand-up Season 1) achieved significant success, topping viewership charts and maintaining a high rating of 8.2 on Douban, while Tencent's "脱口秀和Ta的朋友们1" (Talk Show and Its Friends 1) faced mixed reviews despite decent viewership [4][11] - The overall comedy variety show market is experiencing growth, with a 51.3% increase in broadcast index year-on-year, indicating a rising interest in this genre [11] Company Strategies - Tencent Video has established a strong foothold in the comedy variety show sector since 2017, leveraging popular IPs like "吐槽大会" (Roast) and "脱口秀大会" (Stand-up Comedy Contest) [3][4] - iQIYI has differentiated itself by collaborating with 米未传媒 (Miwei Media) and introducing innovative formats like "奇葩说" (Qipa Shuo) and "一年一度喜剧大赛" (Annual Comedy Competition), expanding the comedy genre's boundaries [3][4] - Both companies are focusing on enhancing their advertising partnerships, with "脱口秀和Ta的朋友们2" securing seven brand partnerships, indicating strong commercial potential [15][18] Market Dynamics - The competition is not only between the two shows but also includes other players like 优酷 (Youku) and 芒果TV (Mango TV), which are launching their own comedy and variety shows, intensifying the battle for audience share [13][18] - The overall variety show market is facing challenges, with a decline in viewership for top shows, necessitating a strong content strategy to revitalize interest [18][20] - The success of "喜单2" and "脱友2" is crucial for both platforms to maintain their influence and market share in the evolving entertainment landscape [18][20]