格隆汇9月28日｜华源证券研报指出，9月8日，歌唱人才选拔类节目《声鸣远扬2025》全球启动发布会 在北京举行。该节目由湖南卫视芒果TV联合多家头部省级卫视与网络平台倾力打造，是行业内较为少 见的多方合作综艺制作形式。《声鸣远扬2025》联合八大平台，探索联合创制新范式。公司后续剧集储 备丰富，有望推动会员规模与普及率上升。2025 年上半年，《歌手2025》直播互动总次数累计破9000 万次；《乘风2025》QM月播放量峰值较上一季提升超30%。此外，公司积极布局微短剧，25H1芒果TV 大芒计划上线微短剧1179 部，较去年同期增长近7倍，后续《还珠》系列以及《橘祥如意》《新龙门客 栈》等一系列长尾效应显著的现象级IP预计将改编为短剧。选择Netflix、东方明珠和新媒股份作为可比 公司，鉴于广电新政下长剧市场回暖，公司后续节目储备丰富，《声鸣远扬2025》有望带来招商规模提 升，推动广告业务收入，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

Revenue and Profit Decline - In the first half of the year, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.964 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.763 billion yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 14.31% and 28.31% respectively, with a fully diluted EPS of 0.41 yuan [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.063 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.385 billion yuan, down 15.74% and 35.09% year-on-year [1] - The decline in revenue is primarily due to the contraction of the traditional TV shopping business, while the drop in net profit is attributed to increased investments in top-tier film and television content, ecological layout, and technology applications [1] Core Platform Performance - In the first half of the year, Mango TV's internet video business generated revenue of 4.882 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 1.5%, maintaining overall stability; the average monthly active users increased by 14.24% year-on-year, and the average daily usage time per user remains among the industry leaders [1] - Membership revenue reached 2.496 billion yuan, continuing to grow; advertising revenue was 1.587 billion yuan, showing significant recovery compared to the first quarter but still facing considerable pressure [1] - The operator business revenue was 0.8 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 7%, recovering after a significant decline in 2024 due to industry governance factors [1] Content Ecosystem Development - The variety shows continue to maintain industry-leading advantages, with Mango TV's variety show effective playback volume ranking first in the industry [2] - The show "Singer 2025" innovatively combines vertical and horizontal screen viewing modes, achieving over 90 million total interactive live sessions; "Riding the Wind 2025" broke the traditional studio recording mode by setting the stage outdoors, with peak monthly playback volume increasing by over 30% compared to the previous season [3] - In terms of drama series, effective playback volume for Mango TV's dramas increased by 69% year-on-year, with "The National Color of Elegance" achieving an average playback volume exceeding 40 million; the company has a reserve of nearly 100 dramas, and the latest policies from industry regulators are expected to support the production of more high-quality hit dramas [3] - The strategy for micro-short dramas is accelerating, with 1,179 micro-short dramas launched under the Big Mango plan, a nearly 7-fold increase year-on-year; the self-produced horizontal short drama "Jiang Song" topped the short drama effective playback ranking in May [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][4][17]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit have declined, with a reported revenue of 5.964 billion yuan and a net profit of 763 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing year-on-year decreases of 14.31% and 28.31% respectively [10][1]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the contraction of the traditional TV shopping business, while the decrease in net profit is due to increased investments in high-quality film and television content, ecological layout, and technology applications [10][1]. - The core platform business remains stable, with Mango TV's internet video business generating 4.882 billion yuan in revenue, a slight year-on-year decline of 1.5%, while user engagement metrics show a 14.24% increase in monthly active users [12][2]. - The content ecosystem continues to improve, with Mango TV's variety shows maintaining industry leadership and a 69% year-on-year increase in effective viewership for its dramas [16][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved a revenue of 5.964 billion yuan and a net profit of 763 million yuan, with respective year-on-year declines of 14.31% and 28.31% [10]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.063 billion yuan and a net profit of 385 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 15.74% and 35.09% [10]. Core Business Performance - Mango TV's internet video business generated 4.882 billion yuan in revenue, with a 1.5% year-on-year decline, while the user base showed a 14.24% increase in monthly active users [12]. - The membership revenue reached 2.496 billion yuan, continuing its growth trajectory [12]. - The advertising business saw a revenue of 1.587 billion yuan, showing signs of recovery compared to the previous quarter but still facing significant pressure [12]. Content Development - The variety shows on Mango TV continue to lead the industry, with significant viewer engagement and innovative formats [16]. - The effective viewership for dramas increased by 69% year-on-year, with notable successes in specific titles [16]. - The company has accelerated its strategy for micro-short dramas, launching 1,179 new episodes, a nearly sevenfold increase from the previous year [16].

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 5.964 billion yuan, down 14.31% year-on-year, and a net profit of 763 million yuan, down 28.31% year-on-year [1] - Membership business showed steady growth, with revenue of 2.496 billion yuan, and an increase in monthly active users by 14.24% [1][2] - The company is focusing on diversified IP development and enhancing international communication effectiveness, with a significant increase in international downloads [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 763 million yuan, down 28.31% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.063 billion yuan, a decline of 15.74% year-on-year, and a net profit of 385 million yuan, down 35.09% [1] Membership and Content Strategy - The membership business generated revenue of 2.496 billion yuan, showing slight growth, while the average monthly active users of Mango TV increased by 14.24% [1] - The company’s original content, including popular shows, has led to a significant increase in effective viewership, with a 69% year-on-year growth in drama viewership [1] IP Development and International Expansion - The company is enhancing its IP development through a full industry chain approach, including the creation of a dual IP ecosystem with "program + animation" [2] - The international version of Mango TV has seen a cumulative download of 295 million, an increase of 13.8% since the beginning of the year [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that its content investments will yield long-term returns, supported by recent policy changes in the industry [2] - Projections for net profit from 2025 to 2027 are 1.394 billion yuan, 1.626 billion yuan, and 1.898 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 36x, 31x, and 27x [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.964 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 763 million yuan, down 28.31% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 610 million yuan, a decline of 33.15% year-on-year. The company has a rich reserve of high-quality variety shows and dramas, and the outlook remains positive due to expected performance growth from S-level variety shows and breakthroughs in dramas and micro-dramas [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.964 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.31% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 763 million yuan, down 28.31% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 610 million yuan, a decline of 33.15% year-on-year [2][3]. Business Segments - Membership revenue showed slight growth, reaching 2.496 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase in average monthly active users of 14.24%. Advertising revenue was 1.587 billion yuan, facing pressure year-on-year but showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q2. The operator business returned to growth with an 8 billion yuan revenue, up 7% year-on-year. The small mango e-commerce segment achieved its first half-year profit, marking a significant breakthrough in the "content + e-commerce" business model [7]. Content Production - The company continues to strengthen its moat in content production, with variety shows, dramas, and micro-dramas advancing together. The effective playback volume of Mango TV's variety shows remained the highest in the industry. The drama segment saw a significant increase, with a 69% year-on-year growth in effective playback volume. The company has a robust pipeline of nearly 100 dramas, ensuring ample content supply. The micro-drama segment is rapidly expanding, with 1,179 micro-dramas launched in the first half of 2025, a nearly 7-fold increase year-on-year [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating its internationalization strategy with the "Mango Going Global Three-Year Action Plan (2025-2027)," aiming to triple daily active users in three years. The international app has reached 295 million downloads, a 13.8% increase since the beginning of the year. Technological advancements are also notable, with the self-developed Mango model supporting over 30 programs and enhancing user experience through innovative technologies [7]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.531 billion yuan and 1.857 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 31x and 26x at the current stock price. The outlook remains positive due to the rich reserves of high-quality variety shows and dramas [7].

Core Insights - Mango TV's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 5.964 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.31% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 763 million yuan, down 28.31% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown: - Internet video business generated 4.883 billion yuan, down 1.5% - New media interactive entertainment content production earned 606 million yuan, down 4.34% - Content e-commerce revenue was 446 million yuan, down 67.09% - Other businesses saw revenue of 28.45 million yuan, up 127.69% [3][4] - Membership revenue reached 2.496 billion yuan, showing slight growth, while advertising revenue was 1.587 billion yuan, with a notable recovery in Q2 [5] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 460 million yuan, a significant improvement from a negative cash flow of 180 million yuan in the previous year [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company increased content and R&D investments despite a general industry trend of cost-cutting, leading to a rise in internet video business costs by 11.78% and R&D spending by 26.41% [2][6] - Mango TV plans to launch 1,179 micro-dramas, a nearly sevenfold increase from the previous year, and is adapting popular IPs into short dramas [7] - The company is also expanding its content e-commerce segment, with its subsidiary Xiaomang e-commerce achieving profitability for the first time [6] Market Position - As of June 2025, Mango TV had an average monthly active user count of 27.6 million, ranking third among major video platforms [5] - The company’s stock closed at 25.53 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 47.8 billion yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - Mango TV has demonstrated resilience in its core business, achieving significant revenue growth and maintaining a strong market position despite industry challenges [1][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.964 billion yuan and a net profit of 763 million yuan [1]. - Membership revenue reached 2.496 billion yuan, showing growth that outperformed the industry [1]. - Advertising revenue was 1.587 billion yuan, with a noticeable recovery in the second quarter compared to the first [1]. - The operator segment generated 800 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 7% [1]. Content Strategy - The company has increased its investment in content and R&D, with content costs rising by 11.78% and R&D spending up by 26.41% [1]. - Mango TV's effective play volume for dramas grew by 69% year-on-year, with several shows achieving significant viewership milestones [3][4]. - The introduction of new policies by the National Radio and Television Administration is expected to enhance content creation flexibility and commercialization efficiency [4]. Market Position - Mango TV holds a 36.5% market share in the online variety show segment, maintaining its position as the industry leader [2]. - The platform's monthly active users reached over 280 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [5]. - The company has successfully launched multiple hit shows, contributing to its strong market presence [3][5]. Innovation and New Initiatives - The company is expanding into micro-short dramas, with a significant increase in the number of productions [6][7]. - Mango TV has also ventured into the emotional consumption market through its Xiaomang e-commerce platform, achieving profitability for the first time in the reporting period [7][8]. - The focus on IP derivatives is expected to drive growth in the emotional consumption market, which is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2025 [8].

Core Insights - Mango TV's flagship programs are facing criticism for declining quality and over-reliance on sensationalism rather than content depth [1][3][6] - The company's financial performance has significantly deteriorated, with a record drop in net profit and advertising revenue [1][9][10] Financial Performance - In 2024, Mango TV reported a net profit decline of 61.63%, marking the largest drop in its 10-year history [9] - Total revenue for 2024 was 140.80 billion, down 3.75% year-on-year, with advertising revenue falling to 34.38 billion, a 12% decrease [1][9] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit further declined by 12.76% and 19.80%, respectively [1][9] Audience Reception - Recent shows like "乘风2025" and "歌手2025" have been criticized for their focus on drama and controversy rather than genuine talent and growth [3][6] - The casting choices in "披荆斩棘的哥哥5" have raised eyebrows, with many returning contestants and a perceived lack of new talent [6][7] Market Position - Mango TV's market capitalization has dropped from nearly 2000 billion to 494.81 billion, losing approximately 1500 billion [10] - The company's cash flow has also seen a drastic decline, with a 102.32% drop in net cash flow from operating activities in 2024 [10] Industry Trends - The rise of short video platforms, particularly ByteDance's "红果短剧," is challenging traditional long-form video platforms like Mango TV [12][15] - Short dramas have lower production costs and faster turnaround times, making them increasingly popular among viewers [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The entertainment industry is increasingly favoring content related to middle-aged women, with shows like "Sisters on the Run" and "Sisters in Charge" gaining significant attention and viewership, reflecting a broader societal appreciation for diverse female narratives [1][12][29]. Group 1: Show Highlights - The show "Sisters in Charge" features real-life segments of four women, showcasing their multifaceted roles in family and society, and has sparked discussions on social media, indicating its popularity [7][12]. - The first episode of "Sisters in Charge" achieved over 100 million views within two hours of its release, highlighting its immediate impact [12]. - The show employs innovative filming techniques, such as extended silent moments, to convey deep emotional narratives, resonating with audiences [13][9]. Group 2: Market Trends - The rise of "sister content" reflects a shift in societal values, breaking traditional beauty standards and showcasing women's capabilities across various fields [29][34]. - The primary audience for shows like "Sisters in Charge" and "Sisters on the Run" consists of women aged 35-55, who hold significant consumer decision-making power and are willing to invest in content that resonates emotionally [29][31]. - The overall female user base on online platforms has reached 624 million, indicating a strong market for female-centric content [31][32]. Group 3: Cultural Impact - The portrayal of middle-aged women has evolved from traditional roles to empowered figures, marking a significant cultural shift towards inclusivity and diverse representations of femininity [34]. - The success of shows featuring middle-aged women demonstrates a growing acceptance and appreciation for their stories, contributing to a more inclusive entertainment landscape [29][34].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The overall performance of the drama and variety show advertising market in H1 2025 shows a significant decline, with drama advertising down 26% year-on-year and variety show advertising down 10% [10][12][19] - The total number of drama series launched in H1 2025 was 123, a decrease of 8.9% compared to 135 in the same period last year [10] - The total number of variety shows decreased to 282 from 317 year-on-year, indicating a contraction in the market [19] Group 2: Key Performers - Despite the overall decline, top projects like Youku's "Cang Hai Chuan" secured over 60 brand partnerships, leading the drama advertising market [6] - The crime/suspense genre saw a remarkable increase, with the number of such shows rising by 89% and advertising partnerships increasing by 29% [15] - The new variety show "CCTV's Central Good Goods Shopping Party" achieved an impressive 108 brand partnerships, showcasing the strong sponsorship capability of new variety shows [16][17] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is increasingly characterized by a "winner-takes-all" effect, where only top-tier projects are able to secure significant advertising deals, leaving mid-tier projects struggling [6][21] - The overall sentiment among brand clients towards investing in drama series is waning, reflecting a broader trend of reduced enthusiasm for advertising in this sector [12][21] - The industry is advised to adopt more innovative marketing strategies to enhance brand engagement and drive commercial growth, particularly in the crime/suspense genre [15][21]