Core Viewpoint - The current overseas computing power valuation is reasonable with potential for upward revision, while domestic computing power has significant long-term growth potential and performance expectations are being met [1] Historical Analysis of Technology Bull Markets - The article reviews past technology bull markets (2009-2010 consumer electronics, 2013-2015 gaming, and 2019-2021 lithium battery) to analyze the price performance characteristics during valuation expansion and profit-driven phases, providing a historical reference for the current AI industry chain [2][8] Valuation Expansion Phase Characteristics - During this phase, new technologies emerge without profit support, and industry and policy catalysts create imagination space, driving up valuations. Historical data shows that: - High levels of industry crowding are common, but short-term trading crowding does not affect the overall trend [3][15] - Risk premium effectively measures valuation boundaries, with significant reactions to positive news diminishing when the risk premium falls below a certain threshold [18] - High valuation ranges are sensitive to liquidity changes, with tightening liquidity potentially triggering adjustments [3][18] Profit-Driven Phase Characteristics - In this phase, exceeding profit expectations drives market performance, with historical examples showing: - The need to be cautious of competitive pressures and valuation constraints under endgame thinking [4][21] - Overcapitalization during profit upturns can lead to increased competition and excess capacity, negatively impacting profitability [22][25] Investment Recommendations - Overseas Computing Power: Currently in the profit-driven phase, with ROIC expected to continue rising until Q3 2025, and leading companies' valuations (PE-FY3) are reasonable at 20-30 times, indicating no bubble [5][26] - Domestic Computing Power: Significant long-term growth potential exists, with performance expectations being met and a systemic decline in risk-free rates acting as a catalyst for the next market phase [5][28] - AI Applications: Valuation is attractive, particularly in the internet and media sectors, although the timing and areas for breakout applications are uncertain [5][29]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of mobile games from their early days to the current landscape, highlighting the shift in player expectations and technological advancements that have transformed the industry [1][46]. Group 1: Early Mobile Games - Early mobile games were characterized by simple gameplay, instant feedback, and low entry barriers, appealing to a wide audience including children and non-gamers [15][46]. - Popular genres included endless runner games like "Temple Run" and "Subway Surfers," which achieved significant download milestones, with "Temple Run" surpassing 1 billion downloads by 2014 [4][20]. - Puzzle games like "Angry Birds" and "Cut the Rope" also gained immense popularity, with "Angry Birds" reaching over 1 billion downloads early on [12][14]. Group 2: Challenges and Market Changes - The mobile gaming industry has faced challenges due to technological advancements and changing player demands, with players now seeking deeper, more immersive experiences [17][46]. - Casual games are increasingly competing with other forms of entertainment, such as short videos, which have begun to occupy the market space previously held by mobile games [17][18]. - Many early successful games struggle with monetization, facing issues like high user activity but low spending, leading to a need for sustainable business models [18][19]. Group 3: Success Stories and Longevity - Some games, like "Subway Surfers," have adapted successfully by continuously updating content and engaging with trends, achieving over 4 billion downloads by 2025 [19][20]. - "Happy Match" has maintained its relevance through consistent content updates and a focus on player experience, remaining in the top ranks of app stores for over a decade [24][27]. - The success of these games illustrates the importance of evolving beyond simple gameplay to become cultural symbols and ongoing services for players [19][24]. Group 4: Decline of Certain Titles - Games like "Temple Run" and "Endless Run" have seen declines due to a lack of innovation and failure to adapt to market changes, leading to reduced player engagement [29][31]. - Titles that relied heavily on monetization strategies, such as "天天酷跑," have lost their player base due to perceived unfairness in gameplay [29][31]. - Some games have exited the mainstream market entirely, unable to sustain player interest or innovate beyond their initial concepts [31][33]. Group 5: Future Opportunities - The rise of user-generated content (UGC) and community co-creation is becoming crucial for revitalizing classic IPs, as seen with "Plants vs. Zombies" [47][50]. - New technologies, such as AI-generated content, offer opportunities for smaller teams to create engaging experiences without high costs, addressing traditional challenges in content production [46][50]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards lighter, more accessible games that cater to the fragmented attention spans of modern users, allowing classic gameplay to find new life [50][51].