2024年"924"行情以来，A股市场经历了波澜壮阔的一年半。转眼间，我们已站在2026年的起点。随着上证指数创下近十年新高，市场在欢呼声中也开始出 现分歧：这轮牛市还能涨多久？是"烟花"将尽，还是"慢牛"刚启？ 作为自媒体创作者，我结合近期方正证券、国泰海通、高盛、中信建投等机构的官方核心观点，为你抽丝剥茧，聊聊我对这轮牛市终局的深度思考。 3. 科技的突破：重塑估值体系的引擎如果说资金是血液，那么科技就是心脏。2025年DeepSeek、机器人、集成电路等新技术的出现，打开了市场对未来增 长的预期空间 2026年初的A股，已经不是那个在绝望中重生的少年，而是一位步入壮年的奔跑者。 方正证券在2026年初的研报中明确指出，A股已经进入牛市第三年 这意味着什么？意味着 "闭眼买入都能涨"的阶段可能已经过去。2026年的市场，大概率不会再是单纯的普涨，而是对节奏把握和结构选择的巨大考验。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕将这轮牛市定义为 "转型牛" 。他认为，这轮行情的典型特征是经济结构转型与资本市场改革交相辉映。虽然市场在2025年经 历了大幅波动，但这头"牛"远未结束，2026年甚至有望挑战十年前的高位 要判断牛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Confidence Bull" market, ignited by unprecedented macro policies and the AI revolution since September 2024, is experiencing strong consensus and has led to a short squeeze, but is now facing market fluctuations due to regulatory tightening and mysterious capital outflows [2][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current bull market began during economic downturns, similar to previous major bull markets, driven by relaxed macro policies and the confidence boost from the AI technology revolution [3][14]. - The market is expected to see increased differentiation and volatility, with incorrect directional bets leading to losses [13]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - For the bull market to continue, macro policies need to remain accommodative, including interest rate cuts, increased fiscal investment in new infrastructure, and stronger support for the real estate market to stabilize [4][15]. - Protection of the private economy and promotion of private investment recovery are crucial for achieving economic recovery and improving corporate performance, which can help absorb high valuations [4][15]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain rational and cautious, as the current A-share market at 4100 points presents higher risks compared to the initial "Confidence Bull" prediction [5][16]. - The focus should be on identifying strong investment opportunities rather than speculative stocks, emphasizing the importance of long-term fundamental analysis over frequent trading [7][18].

这轮牛市能涨多久？未来还有没有行情？ 作为这轮牛市最早的吹哨人和牛市旗手，我在2024年9月提出"信心牛"，逻辑 是政策牛+科技牛+水牛叠加。 2025-2026 年市场连创新高，牛市共识强烈，更是出现逼空行情。随着监管降 温杠杆、神秘资金流出等，市场出现震荡。 文 任泽平 2024年924以来，力度空前的宏观政策和AI革命点燃了 "信心牛"行情。 根据我的分析框架，后面市场的分化和震荡会加大，方向错误也不赚钱。 同时，考虑到A股散户为主、暴涨暴跌的特点，此轮牛市要监管好杠杆资金，实 现健康发展和慢牛长牛。 根据我二十多年的实战经验，如果逻辑还在，牛市不言顶，轻易不下车。如果 逻辑破坏，不抱幻想，不恋战。 坦率地讲，4100点的A股比我2024年预测"信心牛"的时候风险要大，涨上去的 是风险，跌下来的是机会。有些股票估值已经很高了，要理性看待市场。寻找风口上的 鹰，不要炒作风口上的猪。 牛市的终结，一般有四大关键信号：估值过高、政策转向、没有增量资金流 入、经济复苏证伪。牛市往往在最疯狂时熄火，踩踏式出逃。 根据这四大信号来看，本轮牛市结束了吗？未来还会涨吗？ 本轮"信心牛"行情与过去的三轮大牛市一样，都同样 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current A-share market is characterized as a "confidence bull," driven by improved expectations of national governance and enhanced expectations of technology leading the economy, with the movement of residents' deposits being a result rather than a cause [2][5] - The outlook for A-shares in 2026 is expected to be a "sideways fluctuation with slight strengthening," emphasizing the pursuit of a long-term, slow, and healthy bull market while being cautious of rapid bull markets that may lead to sharp declines [2][6] - The previous "dumbbell" market trend has ended, shifting investment opportunities from "high-growth technology + low-volatility high-dividend" extremes to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [2][6] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in cyclical industries are not in the real estate chain but are related to national strategies in three sectors: chemicals, metals, and agriculture [3][7] - AI remains a core focus in technology, with long-term potential, but is currently in a phase of expectation verification, requiring careful stock selection [3][9] - The investment focus for the next 3 to 6 months should be on cyclical and manufacturing sectors, as these align with national strategies and economic transformation [7][8] Market Dynamics - The core drivers of the current market uptrend are improvements in national governance and stronger expectations for technology-led economic growth, with significant achievements in diplomacy, defense, and trade contributing to economic resilience [4][5] - The market is currently at a critical juncture around the 4100-point level, with the need for new drivers to support further upward movement, as previous gains have largely reflected the core drivers [6][12] - The transition from a "dumbbell" market structure to a focus on mid-cap blue chips indicates a shift in risk appetite, with low-volatility, high-dividend stocks losing their appeal [11][12] Future Outlook - The AI sector is expected to experience a period of consolidation and differentiation, with the potential for long-term growth remaining intact despite short-term fluctuations [9][10] - The public fund commission rate reform is prompting a strategic shift in brokerage research departments, moving towards comprehensive service for institutional clients beyond just public funds [17] - The securities research industry is seen as a field of continuous learning and growth, with a call for new talent to join and contribute to the evolving landscape [18]

Core Insights - The current A-share market is characterized as a "confidence bull," driven primarily by improved expectations of national governance and enhanced technological leadership in the economy, with the movement of residents' deposits being a result rather than a cause [2][5][23] - The outlook for 2026 indicates a market pattern of "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," emphasizing the pursuit of a long-term, slow, and healthy bull market while cautioning against overly high index targets [2][6][24] - The previous "dumbbell" market trend has ended, shifting investment opportunities from "high-growth technology and low-volatility high-dividend" extremes to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [2][19][25] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in cyclical industries are not found in the real estate chain but are linked to national strategies in three key sectors: chemicals, metals, and agriculture [3][20][25] - The AI sector remains a core focus for technology, with long-term potential, but is currently in a phase of expectation verification, requiring careful stock selection [5][28][29] - The manufacturing sector is highlighted as a key area, with China being a manufacturing powerhouse, focusing on equipment across various fields such as machinery, new energy, robotics, military, and semiconductor manufacturing [25][26] Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning from a "two ends" structure to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, with a shift in risk appetite towards more stable investments [30][31] - The core drivers of the market's performance are rooted in changes in expectations rather than liquidity factors, emphasizing the importance of political, economic, and technological developments [31][32] - The upcoming period is expected to see a verification and correction phase for the AI sector, with overall market volatility likely to decrease [28][29] Industry Evolution - The public fund commission rate reform is significantly impacting the securities research industry, prompting a strategic shift towards providing comprehensive services across investment banking, institutional business, and wealth management [35][36] - The future of securities research will involve deeper integration with the core business areas of securities firms, expanding the client base to include enterprises, institutions, and individual clients [35][36]

Group 1 - The US and Japanese stock markets have surged, with the Dow Jones reaching a historic high, and commodities rebounding while the US dollar index has depreciated for two consecutive days [2] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the Federal Reserve may not quickly reduce its balance sheet, and White House economic advisor Hassett noted that job growth is below expectations, suggesting continued monetary easing which is favorable for the stock market and commodities [2] - The Chinese State Council emphasized the need to plan for major projects and engineering initiatives, indicating that monetary easing and fiscal stimulus are expected in China by 2026, along with relaxed housing market restrictions [2] Group 2 - The successful launch of the Long March 2F rocket carrying a reusable experimental spacecraft marks a milestone for China's commercial space and satellite communication sectors [2] - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by AI and commodities, with the "confidence bull" market since September 2024 being characterized by a combination of policy, technology, and monetary factors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth of initiation funds in the "tech bull" market, where many funds have not only increased their net value but also overcome size challenges, transforming from several million to tens of billions in scale due to investments in sectors like artificial intelligence [1][2] - Several initiation funds, such as the China Europe Information Technology fund, have seen remarkable growth, with the fund's size increasing from 24.4 million to 7.433 billion within nine months, demonstrating the potential for rapid expansion in favorable market conditions [2][3] - The "slow bull" market has alleviated the pressure on fund launches, allowing for larger initial fundraising amounts, such as the Penghua Qihang Quantitative Stock Selection fund, which raised 2.98 billion, compared to previous smaller fund sizes [3][4] Group 2 - Despite the favorable market conditions, some initiation funds have struggled to meet the 200 million threshold, leading to several funds announcing their exit after three years due to insufficient scale [6][7] - The operational costs associated with smaller funds can hinder their growth, making them reliant on institutional investments, which may affect their investment strategies [6] - Some funds have managed to "rescue" themselves by temporarily surpassing the 200 million threshold through increased subscriptions, indicating a dynamic market environment where fund performance can fluctuate significantly [7]

在过去的一周里，港股恒生指数逆市上扬，成功突破去年10月阶段性高点，并接连创出近四年 来指数新高。 在港股升温的交易日里，多家公募基金也紧锣密鼓地布局港股主题产品，当前无论是主题基金的 申报、发行，还是发行时的屡屡提前结募，都体现出资金对于港股投资方面的一致看多。 展望后市，因长期存在的估值优势，"性价比"成为基金经理看多港股的一大因素。此外，有基金 经理认为，随着全球资本的涌入以及"科技牛"的辐射效应，港股科技板块或将与政策主线共振， 长期价值重估有望加速。 港股主题基金密集申报 据证监会官网披露，1月30日，易方达精选策略系列-易方达(香港)中国股票股息基金进入申报环 节，1月23日，易方达基金、招商基金和富国基金旗下也各有港股主题产品申报。 这也是近期各家基金集中申报港股主题基金的缩影，仅在2026年年内申报的基金中，就有39只港 股主题基金（名称中包含了"恒生""港股"等），基金类型有ETF、ETF联接基金以及主动权益类产 品，主题方面，包括恒生科技、港股通红利、港股通消费以及港股通医疗等概念。 值得一提的是，近期随着有色、化工板块的崛起，港股主题基金也将布局方向聚焦于相关板块， 如永赢基金申报了港股 ...

【导读】2月金股最新名单出炉，配置坚守"科技+有色"双主线 中国基金报记者舍梨 开年首月券商金股交出了一份亮眼成绩单。Wind数据显示，1月份券商共推荐307只金股，其中207只个 股当月实现股价上涨，占比近七成。其中，单只金股最高涨幅接近100%。 展望2月行情，券商普遍认为，春季行情趋势仍将延续，春节之前市场可能震荡，但牛市驱动力未变， 配置层面依旧坚守"科技成长 + 周期价值"双主线思路。 | 序号 | 金股组合名称 | 1月收益 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 申万月度金股 | 16. 19% | | 2 | 中邮月度金股 | 15. 16% | | 3 | 平安月度金股 | 14. 36% | | ব | 华源月度金股 | 13. 65% | | 5 | 西南月度金股 | 13. 26% | | 6 | 华龙月度金股 | 12. 62% | | 7 | 东北月度金股 | 12. 53% | | 8 | 国元月度金股 | 11. 95% | | 9 | 国海月度金股 | 11. 14% | | 10 | 中航月度金股 | 10. 55% | | 11 | 太证月度金股 | 10 ...

在港股升温的交易日里，多家公募基金也紧锣密鼓地布局港股主题产品，当前无论是主题基金的申报、发行， 还是发行时的屡屡提前结募，都体现出资金对于港股投资方面的一致看多。 展望后市，因长期存在的估值优势，"性价比"成为基金经理看多港股的一大因素。此外，有基金经理认为，随 着全球资本的涌入以及"科技牛"的辐射效应，港股科技板块或将与政策主线共振，长期价值重估有望加速。 港股主题基金密集申报 据证监会官网披露，1月30日，易方达精选策略系列-易方达(香港)中国股票股息基金进入申报环节，1月23日， 易方达基金、招商基金和富国基金旗下也各有港股主题产品申报。 这也是近期各家基金集中申报港股主题基金的缩影，仅在2026年年内申报的基金中，就有39只港股主题基金 （名称中包含了"恒生""港股"等），基金类型有ETF、有ETF联接基金以及主动权益类产品，主题方面，包括 恒生科技、港股通红利、港股通消费以及港股通医疗等概念。 在过去的一周里，港股恒生指数逆市上扬，成功突破去年10月阶段性高点，并接连刷新近四年来指数新 高。 值得一提的是，近期随着有色、化工板块的鹊起，港股主题基金也将布局方向聚焦于相关板块，如永赢基金申 报了港股 ...