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今天,突破3万亿!创历史第二高
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-08-25 12:57
周末休市两日后,今天(8月25日)开盘三大指数继续强势上涨,成交额也大幅放量,自去年10月8日以 来,历史上第二次突破3万亿元。截至8月25日收盘,沪指报3883.56,涨1.51%,深证成指报12441.07, 涨2.26%,创业板指报2762.99,涨3.00%。 专家:本轮牛市十年一遇 中金公司研报指出,市场活跃度提升、增量资金入市的来源之一是居民存款搬家的初步显现。研报称, 近期宏观流动性相对宽松,10年期国债收益率持续走低,当前低于1.8%,1年期LPR降至3%,国有大行 1年期存款利率低于1%。低利率环境对存款搬家有直接促进作用。在"资产荒"背景下,A股吸引力提 升,市场修复,赚钱效应逐步显现。 中金公司指出,后市来看,居民存款搬家有望延续。当前市场较为活跃,赚钱效应仍在延续,非银存款 增速相比历史高点亦仍有上行空间。根据中金公司研究部银行组测算,居民存款潜在入市的资金规模约 为5万亿元至7万亿元,但实际入市情况取决于宏观经济、政策预期、外部环境等多种因素。若短期交易 量快速提升,短期波动可能加大,但一般不影响中期走势。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出,本轮牛市是十年一遇的特大牛市,级别可以与 ...
上午冲高回落 尾盘二度冲高!今天A股为何这么强?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-25 08:00
8月25日,市场全天震荡走高,沪指逼近3900点,创业板指领涨。截至收盘,沪指涨1.51%,深成指涨 2.26%,创业板指涨3%。 板块方面,稀土永磁、白酒、CPO、通信设备等板块涨幅居前,美容护理等少数板块下跌。 全市场超3300只个股上涨。沪深两市全天成交额3.14万亿元,较上个交易日放量5944亿,为历史第二高成交 额。 经过上周五的大涨,叠加整个周末对"慢牛""科技牛"的发酵,今天A股如期高开,但仍未逃脱冲高回落 的"规律"。 11:11,三大股指纷纷拐头向下,午后回落至早盘低点附近震荡。 而作为这几天涨得最多、关注度也最高的"科技牛"代表,科创50指数日内的"见顶回落"发生在更早的9:35, 回调幅度也最大——涨幅从接近6%到最低约0.5%。 但或许是3万亿元的量能给了市场信心,午后,三大指数竟再度上攻,沪指收于日内最高点(3883.56点)。 这样强势的表现,应该如何理解呢?市场在"加速赶顶"吗? 所谓"牛市不言顶",其实跳出日内走势,我们能看到更多。 今天,沪指跳空高开于3848.16点,早盘最高涨至3880.92点;并且在回落后,仍留有向上缺口(3825.76点至 3839.97点),这也是强 ...
上午冲高回落,尾盘二度冲高!今天A股为何这么强?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 08:00
8月25日,市场全天震荡走高,沪指逼近3900点,创业板指领涨。截至收盘,沪指涨1.51%,深成指涨 2.26%,创业板指涨3%。 板块方面,稀土永磁、白酒、CPO、通信设备等板块涨幅居前,美容护理等少数板块下跌。 全市场超3300只个股上涨。沪深两市全天成交额3.14万亿元,较上个交易日放量5944亿,为历史第二高成交 额。 经过上周五的大涨,叠加整个周末对"慢牛""科技牛"的发酵,今天A股如期高开,但仍未逃脱冲高回落 的"规律"。 11:11,三大股指纷纷拐头向下,午后回落至早盘低点附近震荡。 而作为这几天涨得最多、关注度也最高的"科技牛"代表,科创50指数日内的"见顶回落"发生在更早的9:35, 回调幅度也最大——涨幅从接近6%到最低约0.5%。 这样强势的表现,应该如何理解呢?市场在"加速赶顶"吗? 所谓"牛市不言顶",其实跳出日内走势,我们能看到更多。 本轮"慢牛"的两大"规律" 整数关口花费的时间,变得越来越短。 今天,沪指跳空高开于3848.16点,早盘最高涨至3880.92点;并且在回落后,仍留有向上缺口(3825.76点至 3839.97点),这也是强势的表现。 因此,这一规律目前并未失效。 ...
96天,沪指涨近800点!这波“慢牛”其实比你想得更“快”
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-24 07:55
每日经济新闻消息,刚过去的交易周(8月18日~8月22日),A股用一种相当神奇的方式,诠释了什么 叫"慢牛",什么叫"慢就是快"。 让我们把时间往回调↓ 本周五,8月22日,沪指站上3800点; 再往前,从5月6日到6月23日,在3300点~3400点震荡了34个交易日。 再往前,4月7日到4月30日,从3040.69点触底反弹至3300点附近。 …… 这就是最近4个半月,96个交易日,沪指的"来时路"。 其他主要股指走势整体相仿,因此本文将围绕沪指展开讨论。 不难发现,随着指数越走越高(目前已创出十年新高),突破整数关口消耗的时间变得越来越短。 因此,和近十年的历史行情相比,这次的"慢牛"实际上并不慢。 6个交易日前的8月14日,盘中首度站上3700点; 7个交易日前的8月5日,最近一次站稳3600点; 19个交易日前的7月9日,站上3500点; 11个交易日前的6月24日,站上3400点; 同样是上涨约800点—— 2020年6月下旬到2021年2月中旬,沪指从2966点涨到3731点,花了35周,接近9个月。 2016年1月底到2018年2月初,沪指从2638点反弹至3462点,更是用了整整两年! (当 ...
96天 沪指涨近800点!这波“慢牛”其实比你想得更“快”
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-24 02:06
刚过去的交易周(8月18日至22日),A股用一种相当神奇的方式,诠释了什么叫"慢牛",什么叫"慢就是快"。 让我们把时间往回调↓ 本周五,8月22日,沪指站上3800点; 6个交易日前的8月14日,盘中首度站上3700点; 7个交易日前的8月5日,最近一次站稳3600点; 19个交易日前的7月9日,站上3500点; 11个交易日前的6月24日,站上3400点; 再往前,从5月6日到6月23日,在3300点~3400点震荡了34个交易日。 再往前,4月7日到4月30日,从3040.69点触底反弹至3300点附近。 …… 这就是最近4个半月,96个交易日,沪指的"来时路"。 其他主要股指走势整体相仿,因此本文将围绕沪指展开讨论。 不难发现,随着指数越走越高(目前已创出十年新高),突破整数关口消耗的时间变得越来越短。 因此,和近十年的历史行情相比,这次的"慢牛"实际上并不慢。 同样是上涨约800点—— 2020年6月下旬到2021年2月中旬,沪指从2966点涨到3731点,花了35周,接近9个月。 2016年1月底到2018年2月初,沪指从2638点反弹至3462点,更是用了整整两年! (当然,跟2014年7月到2 ...
10年高点A股,还能上车吗?
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-08-22 04:37
新京报贝壳财经记者 胡萌 编辑 杨娟娟 校对 杨利 连日来,上证指数连续突破3600点、3700点关口,且一度破十年前高点,8月20日,市场主要指数持续 走强,上证指数涨1.04%报3766.21点,北证50再次刷新历史纪录。市场情绪持续高涨,"牛市"之声再 起。 站在当前这个关键节点,A股下一步将何去何从?面对如此行情,普通投资者又该如何应对?新京报贝 壳财经围绕相关热点话题直播连线国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员、复旦大学管理学院特聘教授 邵宇进行深度解读。 本轮市场情绪由科技革新(如DeepSeek)、外部美联储降息预期及地缘缓和等因素推动,近期军工及 新质生产力相关预期也逐渐明晰,叙事呈现"科技牛"等多元特点。 总体而言,两轮行情在基本面托举、流动性充裕及情绪驱动上有相似之处,但政策力度、杠杆渠道和叙 事逻辑存在差异,需细致甄别。 新京报贝壳财经:哪些因素可能会影响本轮行情的走势? 邵宇指出,当前市场出现高风险资产与避险资产齐涨,而债券等资产表现承压的独特现象,股债"跷跷 板"效应近日尤为明显,因此推荐投资者采用"杠铃策略"进行资产配置,其特征在于"进可攻退可守"。 ▲国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研 ...
我个人的二级市场冲浪记录,写在上证 3700 点
佩妮Penny的世界· 2025-08-14 05:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent bullish trends in the secondary market, highlighting significant gains in various stock indices and the overall positive sentiment among investors [2][4][31]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed 3700 points, with a trading volume of 2.1 trillion RMB, marking the second-highest two-margin balance in the past decade [2][5]. - The Hang Seng Index has rebounded by 50-60% from last year's lows, leading global stock performance this year [2]. - U.S. stocks have also seen a rebound of over 30% from their lows following tariff adjustments [2]. - Bitcoin has crossed the $120,000 mark, indicating strong performance in the cryptocurrency market [2]. Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes a diversified investment strategy, with allocations in fixed income, A-shares, and international stocks, including cryptocurrencies [14][21]. - A disciplined approach to investing is highlighted, with a focus on index investing rather than individual stocks, and the use of automated trading platforms to manage investments [19][21]. - The importance of understanding market conditions and maintaining a balanced portfolio is stressed, particularly in the context of the current bullish market [31][33]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts are revisiting historical bull markets, coining various terms for the current market conditions, such as "slow bull" and "technology bull" [6]. - There is a growing sentiment that the market may continue to rise, with some predicting the Shanghai Composite Index could reach 4500 points by the end of the year [9][12]. - The article notes that while the market is experiencing significant gains, the underlying earnings growth remains low, suggesting that the current rally is primarily driven by liquidity rather than fundamental improvements [31]. Sector Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has seen substantial inflows, with net purchases reaching 866.84 billion HKD, the highest since the launch of the Stock Connect program [26]. - The article mentions that the performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index and other sector ETFs has been particularly strong, indicating a shift in investor interest towards technology and new economy sectors [23][25].
刚刚,上海重磅发布!四条赛道,全线爆发!
券商中国· 2025-08-04 07:38
Core Viewpoint - The technology sector is experiencing a significant surge, driven by multiple catalysts including government support for research and development, and upcoming industry events showcasing new innovations in artificial intelligence, robotics, and semiconductors [1][4][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the afternoon, sectors such as artificial intelligence, robotics, semiconductors, and gaming saw collective surges, with AI stocks experiencing widespread gains, many hitting the daily limit or increasing over 10% [3]. - The semiconductor sector also saw substantial increases, with stocks like Dongxin Co. hitting a 20% limit up, and other companies like Chipone Technology and ChipRise both rising over 10% [3]. Group 2: Policy Support - The Shanghai government has introduced measures to support enterprises in enhancing basic research, including tax incentives for companies investing in foundational research, with financial subsidies ranging from 200 million to 1 billion yuan based on the level of investment [4]. - Companies that support non-profit research institutions and universities can deduct their contributions from taxable income, further incentivizing investment in foundational research [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by a focus on technology growth, particularly in the AI sector, which is expected to benefit from policy and industry catalysts [7]. - The upcoming 2025 World Robot Conference and the launch of new AI products by companies like OpenAI are anticipated to further stimulate interest and investment in the technology sector [3][4].
“慢牛”行情趋势不变,新一轮行情随时可能启动
天天基金网· 2025-08-04 05:32
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that market trends dictate the behavior of dominant funds, which in turn influences the structure and patterns of rising industries. Historically, liquidity-driven markets tend to favor concentrated sectors rather than rotation strategies [1] - Recent market performance indicates a shift towards trend-based sectors, particularly in AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, resources, and technology innovation boards, as liquidity growth shows signs of slowing down [1] - The high dividend yield sectors are currently underperforming due to the weight of the banking sector, but some stable and potential high dividend stocks are beginning to show value as they have fallen to attractive yield levels [2] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a short-term adjustment after a previous rally, with the need to refocus on main lines as the rotation and recovery phase has reached a saturation point. The upcoming economic growth expectations and policy adjustments are key factors to watch [3] - There is a belief that the core logic supporting the current market trend remains intact, with potential catalysts such as the release of GPT-5 and upcoming significant political events likely to boost market confidence [4] - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance in August, with a focus on structural opportunities, particularly in technology and advanced manufacturing sectors driven by the "anti-involution" theme [3][4] Group 3 - The market is anticipated to experience a rotation of hotspots, with a focus on sectors like machinery, power equipment, and consumer technology, as well as high-quality dividend stocks that have recently corrected [7][10] - The potential for A-shares to reach new highs in August is supported by improving cash flow among listed companies and the influx of incremental capital, despite short-term adjustments [8] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to remain a central theme in market dynamics, with technology growth sectors likely to exhibit high levels of activity due to the ongoing AI revolution and emerging industry trends [11]
2025年中资本市场展望
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-01 02:35
Group 1: Global Capital Market Trends - The US stock market is experiencing strong upward momentum, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching all-time highs, and the Dow Jones approaching its historical peak. This positive sentiment is spreading globally, impacting European markets and even Israel's stock market, which has also hit new highs. The core driver of this rally is the exceptional performance of the technology sector, particularly companies like Nvidia, which symbolize global tech investment [1][2]. - The market has shifted focus from trade tensions to corporate earnings and innovation-driven growth prospects, setting a positive tone for the second half of the year [2]. Group 2: Chinese Capital Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market has emerged from a low point in April, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index reaching new highs. This aligns with the positive trends seen in global markets. Anticipated larger economic stimulus policies from the Chinese government could inject new growth momentum into the market, suggesting a "tech bull" market in the second half of the year [3]. - The investment outlook is based on macro trends, industry upgrades, and policy direction, emphasizing the importance of understanding long-term trends over short-term price fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Chinese Technology Sector - Key areas for investment in the technology-driven market include: 1. **Chip and Semiconductor Industry**: China is striving to catch up in the entire semiconductor supply chain, with significant growth potential indicated by Nvidia's high valuation. Mergers like the one between Zhongke Shuguang and Haiguang Information aim to create a competitive "national team" in the chip sector [4][5]. 2. **Solid-State Batteries**: Seen as a disruptive technology for next-generation batteries, solid-state batteries offer high energy density and safety. The growth of low-altitude economy and electric vehicles will provide a platform for their application, making equipment suppliers in this field a stable investment direction [6]. 3. **Vehicle-Cloud Integration and Autonomous Driving**: The rapid development of autonomous driving technology is reshaping the automotive industry. The collaborative model of smart electric vehicles, intelligent roads, and cloud services is crucial for achieving high-level autonomous driving [7]. 4. **Emerging Technology Fields**: Areas such as humanoid robots, deep-sea economy, AI, AR glasses, and large models represent the forefront of technological innovation and are expected to significantly alter human life and work [8]. Group 4: Company Case Studies - **Xiaomi Group**: Transitioning from a low-end "assembler" to a diversified ecosystem builder, Xiaomi's expansion into IoT, smart cars, and internet services has significantly increased its market valuation, particularly in the context of AI and policy support [9]. - **SMIC and BeiGene**: SMIC is a leader in advanced wafer foundry in A-shares, but its scarcity diminishes in the international market. BeiGene, despite being perceived as a Chinese company, operates as a US entity, highlighting the importance of international collaboration in the pharmaceutical sector [10][11]. - **Digital Finance and Infrastructure**: Companies like Lakala and Hengsheng Electronics are pivotal in digital finance and infrastructure, with a focus on core competitiveness and actual orders, which will ultimately be recognized by the market [12].