2013年至2015年间，移动互联网的崛起催生了科技股牛市（以下称"互联网牛"），2019年至2021年，涌现了新能源与半导体引领的赛道股牛市 （以下称"赛道牛"）；以上两段牛市均经历了类似的调整阶段。 本文将回溯A股市场的历史，对这两轮牛市调整情况进行分析，以资借鉴。 以史为鉴 本轮科技牛调整到何处 在互联网牛市中，创业板指大级别调整发生在2014年2月25日到5月19日，最大调整幅度为22.95%，持续时间57个交易日见阶段底。 在赛道牛期间，创业板指有三轮较大级别调整。其中，第一轮发生在2019年4月8日至6月10日，调整幅度超21%；第二轮发生在2020年2月26日至3 月23日，最大调整幅度近21%；第三轮发生在2021年2月至3月，调整幅度超25%。 （原标题：以史为鉴，本轮科技牛调整到哪了？高成长+高回撤+高ROE的优质科技股曝光） 科技股何时见底？ 本轮科技牛市调整已持续一段时日，部分龙头股出现了显著跌幅。在此情形下，投资者最为关注的莫过于本轮调整行情还将延续多久，以及调整 的空间会有多大。 另外，从估值角度来看，双创指数的市盈率也并没有想象中的那么高，尤其是科创50指数，按照机构一致预测的2 ...

新华财经上海11月20日电 2025年以来，转债市场呈现出"股性主导、供需收紧、估值高位"的格局。展 望2026年，转债市场能否继续布局？随着投资环境的变化，该市场的收益与风险博弈会否进一步加剧？ 股性驱动特征显著 可以看到，近期转债市场表现延续了强势基调，同时呈现出了鲜明的结构性特征，而"股性主导、供需 失衡"更是成为了核心标签。 公开数据显示，中证转债指数上周五（11月14日）报收491.71点，周内一度突破8月高点，市场整体估 值处于历史极高水平，百元溢价率分位数达98.5%。 另外，自2024年9月以来，中证转债指数跟随权益市场走强，累计涨幅已超34%，2025年的年内涨幅也 达到了18%以上。 "当前，转债市场供给规模的持续萎缩值得关注。"一位券商交易员告诉记者，"2025年，转债市场的整 体规模较年初收缩约2100亿元，当前存量仅在5748亿元左右。未来一年，还有约78只转债到期，总规模 涉及约928亿元，叠加部分机构的强赎意愿抬升，而新发项目储备不足，届时市场规模可能向4000亿元 以下演绎，较2022年至2023年的水平萎缩一半。再就需求端来看，受益于'资产荒'影响，现阶段'固收 +'的资金配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant style shift as fund managers face year-end performance assessments, leading to a "high cut low" strategy where funds are reallocating from high-performing technology sectors to undervalued cyclical sectors like coal, banking, and steel [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The technology sector, previously leading the market, has seen a notable decline, with the electronic sector down nearly 8% and both media and computer sectors down over 5% since the beginning of the fourth quarter [2] - In contrast, cyclical sectors such as coal and oil have surged, with both sectors gaining over 11%, while banking and steel sectors have increased by more than 7% [2] - There is a clear trend of capital outflow from high-performing technology stocks into lower-valued sectors, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] Group 2: Fund Manager Behavior - Fund managers are engaging in a complex game of balancing long-term investment strategies with short-term performance pressures, leading to varied approaches to year-end reallocation [1][3] - The "high cut low" strategy is primarily aimed at locking in profits and managing rankings, with fund managers reducing exposure to high-flying tech stocks while increasing positions in undervalued assets [3][4] - Some fund managers choose to maintain their positions in technology stocks, believing that recent declines are merely profit-taking rather than a sign of a market downturn [4][5] Group 3: Institutional Investor Actions - Insurance funds are also adjusting their strategies, often focusing on stability in the fourth quarter due to their annual performance assessments, which differ from public funds [8][9] - Some insurance institutions are taking advantage of the market's shift by increasing their positions in growth stocks while others are moving towards value stocks [9][10] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market may experience increased volatility as it prepares for a potential transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market in 2026, with opportunities across both technology and traditional sectors [11][12] - The investment strategy is shifting towards a "rebalancing" approach, focusing on both cyclical sectors and undervalued technology stocks, aiming for a balanced portfolio to mitigate risks [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 technology structural bull market is considered "Bull Market 1.0," with a potential peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market termed "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The AI industry trend is expected to deepen, but the cost-effectiveness of the A-share AI industry chain is deemed low, similar to previous years in 2014, 2018, and 2021 [1] - A mid-2026 supply clearing in midstream manufacturing is anticipated, with a notable increase in sectors where capacity growth is lower than demand growth [1] - The sequence of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected to occur, with mid-2026 potentially validating the "policy bottom" [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines in 2026: 1. Recovery trading sectors such as cyclical Alpha, basic chemicals, and industrial metals 2. Technology industry trend sectors including AI industry chain, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Sectors related to manufacturing influence enhancement, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is characterized by high dividend defensiveness, with the latter stage driven by cyclical policies and technological trends [2]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a strong afternoon rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the green, supported by sectors such as shipbuilding, deep-sea technology, lithium mining, gold and jewelry, insurance, and industrial metals [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) saw a notable increase of 0.17%, with a turnover rate of 27.61% and a trading volume exceeding 5.3 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - Key stocks such as Aerospace Development and Spring Breeze Power reached their daily limit up, while companies like Chengxin Lithium, Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Tianqi Lithium, and Shandong Gold showed significant gains [1] Group 2 - UBS China’s 2026 outlook report predicts another prosperous year for the Chinese stock market, driven by favorable factors including developments in innovative sectors [1] - The MSCI China Index is projected to reach a target of 100 by the end of next year, indicating a potential upside of 14% from current levels [1] - Earnings per share for Chinese companies are expected to grow by 10% in 2026, with a positive outlook for sectors such as internet, hardware technology, and brokerage firms [1] Group 3 - Shenwan Hongyuan forecasts that the technology structural bull market in 2025 represents the "Bull Market 1.0" phase, with a potential peak in spring 2026 [2] - The second half of 2026 may initiate a comprehensive bull market, termed "Bull Market 2.0," driven by the sequential emergence of policy, market, and economic bottoms [2] - The upcoming bull market is anticipated to be characterized by a "technology bull" or "China influence enhancement bull," supported by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, strengthening trends in emerging industries, and a shift in resident asset allocation towards equities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is far from over, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026, followed by a potential "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global competition is intensifying, necessitating a shift in mindset for A-shares to embrace competitive thinking, which will drive market dynamics [1] - The transition of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities is still in its early stages, indicating further potential for A-share liquidity improvement [1][2] Group 2: Bull Market Phases - "Bull Market 1.0" is anticipated to reach a peak in spring 2026, with a subsequent transition to "Bull Market 2.0" in the latter half of 2026 [2] - The second phase, "Bull Market 2.0," is expected to be a comprehensive bull market driven by improvements in fundamental cycles, emerging industry trends, and increased global influence of China [2][3] Group 3: Profit Forecasts - Predictions for 2026 indicate two significant milestones: the first effective rebound in profitability for all A-shares in five years and the first double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in five years [3] - Forecasted year-on-year growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders are 7% for 2025 and 14% for 2026, with substantial quarterly growth expected [3] Group 4: Sector Trends - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will see high-dividend defensive stocks outperforming, while the latter phase will focus on cyclical recovery and growth sectors [3] - Key structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends with opportunities in AI, and enhanced manufacturing influence [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the global competition has intensified, and A-shares should embrace a competitive mindset, reflecting the reality of pricing competition [2][4] - The migration of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities is still in its early stages, which could drive a bull market, with the macroeconomic framework indicating that the accumulation of A-share profitability is undergoing a qualitative change [3][5] - The report outlines a "two-phase bull market" theory, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026, followed by a potential "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [6][10] Group 2 - The report predicts that 2026 will see a significant rebound in profitability, with the first double-digit growth in net profit for A-shares in five years, forecasting a 7% growth in 2025 and 14% in 2026 [13] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will likely favor high-dividend defensive stocks, while the latter phase will be characterized by cyclical stocks leading the market [10][13] - Three structural clues for 2026 include recovery trades in basic chemicals and industrial metals, opportunities in the AI industry chain, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [14]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective rise on November 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4029.5 points, up 0.73%, and reaching a peak of 4030.4 points, marking a ten-year high [1][2]. Industry Performance - The lithium battery supply chain saw a significant surge, with the energy metals sector index rising by 7.89%. Key stocks in the upstream lithium sector, such as Tianhua New Energy, surged over 19%, while others like Rongjie Co., Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Shengtun Mining hit the daily limit [5][6]. - The midstream battery sector also performed well, with the leading company, CATL, increasing by over 8% and closing up 7.56%, with a trading volume exceeding 22.9 billion yuan [5]. Price Trends - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has reportedly doubled recently, with some market quotes reaching 150,000 yuan per ton. The mainstream transaction price has also significantly increased since mid-October [7]. - Prices for electrolyte solvents such as VC and FEC have risen sharply, with VC rebounding 77% from its low of 48,700 yuan per ton in June to 86,000 yuan per ton by November 12, and FEC increasing 64% from 33,000 yuan per ton to 54,000 yuan per ton in the same period [7]. Stock Contributions - Despite the lithium battery sector leading the market, the top contributors to the Shanghai Composite Index included stocks from various sectors, with Zijin Mining contributing the most at 1.78 points, followed by SMIC and others from sectors like semiconductor and insurance [8][9]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently characterized by a strong performance in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices have not seen similar gains, indicating a trend of strength in the Shanghai market compared to the others [9]. - The Shanghai Dividend Index has continued to rise, increasing nearly 4% in November and 8.92% since the beginning of the fourth quarter, suggesting a return of dividend-focused investment strategies [9].

Group 1 - The article suggests that instead of implementing large-scale consumption subsidies, promoting spring and autumn holidays could serve as a long-term mechanism to stimulate consumption [2][3][4] - The implementation of spring and autumn holidays can alleviate psychological pressure on students and create a more conducive environment for parents to take leave without the stigma associated with it [3][4] - By staggering holiday schedules across different regions, the tourism experience can be improved, leading to a more balanced flow of visitors throughout the year [3][4] Group 2 - Recent market trends indicate a divergence in performance among major stock indices, with the U.S. market showing mixed results while Asian markets exhibit varied responses [6][7][9] - There is a notable increase in southbound capital investing in Hong Kong bank stocks, particularly Agricultural Bank of China, which has reached a new market capitalization high [11][13] - The price-to-book ratio of Agricultural Bank of China has risen to 1.1, indicating a significant premium compared to other major banks, suggesting potential overvaluation [17][18] Group 3 - The article discusses the weakening correlation between stocks and bonds in the domestic market, reflecting a broader trend observed since the 2008 financial crisis [26][28] - It emphasizes the importance of multi-asset allocation strategies as investors mature, suggesting that this approach will become increasingly popular among individual investors [28]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.18%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.92% [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.17 trillion, an increase of 175.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [2] Technology Sector Analysis - The technology sector has been performing well this year, with significant gains in humanoid robots, semiconductor chips, and algorithm computing [3] - Recent adjustments in technology stocks should not be interpreted as a trend reversal; rather, they reflect profit-taking behavior from investors [4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation as a key policy direction, indicating strong future support for sectors like AI and semiconductor technology [4] Investment Outlook - The market is expected to experience structural opportunities in 2026, driven by potential policy benefits and improved capital conditions [2][8] - There is a belief that the bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will continue, with a shift of household savings into the capital market already underway [8] - Historical trends suggest that a complete bull market typically benefits a wide range of industries, not just a few sectors [8] Traditional Sector Opportunities - Traditional sectors may see phase-based rotation opportunities in the coming year, although their growth may not match that of technology stocks [8] - The current market environment shows lower overall valuations and leverage compared to previous peaks, suggesting that the recent rise above 4000 points may not indicate a bubble [7][8]