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25年前,巴菲特在大学的一场演讲,至今仍是投资者的精神底稿
雪球· 2025-10-07 13:00
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the timeless relevance of Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, particularly the importance of focusing on a company's intrinsic value rather than short-term stock price fluctuations [3][4]. Group 1: Life Philosophy - Character is the core determinant of long-term success, with qualities like integrity and responsibility being essential for cultivating beneficial habits [4]. - Investment and business selection fundamentally represent a "vote for people," highlighting the importance of character in mitigating risks and generating compound returns [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The principle of "buying a company" underscores that stocks represent ownership in a business, necessitating a focus on long-term value rather than short-term price movements [5][6]. - Long-termism is crucial, as time benefits good businesses, allowing overvaluations to correct while poor businesses yield mediocre returns regardless of purchase price [6]. - The essence of value investing is to buy simple, durable, and trustworthy companies at reasonable prices and hold them long-term [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on businesses that are easily understandable, filtering out 90% of complex industries [8]. - A safety margin is vital in risk management, avoiding high-risk decisions even with a high probability of success [9][10]. - Leverage should be avoided, as it amplifies risk and creates an asymmetry between potential gains and losses [10]. Group 4: Market Behavior - Investors should ignore market noise and focus on holding quality companies, akin to patient farming [12]. - Market downturns present opportunities to acquire quality assets at lower prices, with Buffett expressing a preference for market declines for potential excess returns [13]. - Ignoring macroeconomic predictions and focusing on company fundamentals is essential for sound investment decisions [14]. Group 5: Historical Lessons - Acknowledging past mistakes is crucial, with Buffett noting that the biggest errors often stem from missed opportunities rather than poor decisions [16]. Group 6: Career and Happiness - Passion for work is more important than monetary gain, with Buffett advising individuals to pursue careers they love [17]. - True happiness transcends material wealth, emphasizing the importance of autonomy and character in achieving a fulfilling life [18]. Conclusion - The ultimate value of Buffett's teachings lies in the principle that simplicity is eternal, with concepts like value investing, economic moats, and zero leverage remaining applicable in 2025 [19].
为什么投资赚钱的永远是少数人?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 10:47
林奇还是有许多真知灼见的,相比之下,国内国外到处流行什么"轻松理财"啊,什么在"小吃店遇见巴 菲特"啊,什么"隔壁的百万富翁"啊,我们得提防着点,它们只会轻松地从你口袋里掏钱,而不是让你 轻松地赚钱。一个稍有脑子的人只要想想,如果赚钱这么容易,天下人一定都赚钱了,钱也就不是稀缺 资源了。但我们绝大多数人能轻松地买一艘游艇吗?唯一看似轻松的彩票中奖赚大钱也不容易,如果你 刻意要成功的话。 遗憾的是,除了买彩票之外,不少人都认为通过股票(或房地产)投机是最容易的赚钱方式。同理,如 果通过这种方式最容易赚钱,古往今来(至少三百年来),股市或房地产业的富翁应该占世界富豪榜的 绝大多数。当然不是。 导读:投资环境的变化沧海桑田,犹如地震般不可预期,但健全的投资原则会产生健全的投资结果,这 大抵仍是不变的事实,它们将持续如此发展,我们的理论则必须建立在这个假定之上。 人都是趋利避害,每次市场开始有波动的时候,大多数的投资者就会开始怀疑自己的选择,这样往往会 导致买了牛股却拿不住,最终赚不到钱,甚至是亏钱。而伟大的投资者之所以伟大,恰恰是因为能够坚 持自己的观点,不为外界因素所干扰,某些时候敢于站在人群的对立面。一些短期看 ...
一辈子做普通工作,靠什么积累巨额财富?这本书给你答案...
雪球· 2025-10-03 13:00
Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes that wealth management is not merely a "hard science" but a game against human weaknesses, highlighting the importance of understanding one's own greed and fear to achieve financial success [2][3] - Long-termism is identified as the key to wealth accumulation, illustrated by contrasting cases of individuals who succeeded through patience versus those who failed due to greed [4][5] - The article discusses the psychological aspects of investing, noting that 80% of investment success is determined by behavior rather than technical skills, and emphasizes the need to embrace pain as part of the investment journey [6][7] Group 2 - The concept of "margin of safety" is introduced as a crucial element for ensuring that compounding returns are not interrupted, advocating for a diversified approach to investments and income sources [8][9] - The article highlights the significance of "tail events," which are rare but impactful occurrences that can drive substantial returns, underscoring the need for a high tolerance for errors in investment strategies [10][11] - It concludes that true wealth is defined by time freedom, encouraging individuals to embrace pain in the pursuit of wealth while also seeking to achieve happiness and mental freedom through financial means [12][13]
十一长假充电指南:5类投资好书助你逆袭“财富认知”
雪球· 2025-10-03 07:58
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of financial literacy and developing a proper money mindset as the first step towards wealth freedom, especially for beginners who feel they have "no money to manage" [4][5][6] - It introduces engaging and easy-to-understand books like "The Rich Dad Poor Dad" and "The Little Money Dog" to help readers build a new understanding of wealth and financial management [5][6] - The article highlights the significance of value investing, founded by Benjamin Graham, which focuses on finding stocks priced below their intrinsic value for long-term gains [8][9] Group 2 - "The Intelligent Investor" is presented as a foundational text in value investing, introducing the concept of "margin of safety" to protect against market volatility [9] - "Warren Buffett's Letters to Shareholders" provides insights into Buffett's investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of long-term competitive advantages and intrinsic value over short-term price fluctuations [10] - Practical methods for applying value investing principles in stock selection and asset allocation are discussed, including industry analysis and financial metrics [11][12] Group 3 - The article discusses the basics of technical analysis, which helps investors make informed decisions based on historical price and volume data [15][16] - "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" is recommended for understanding market trends and buy/sell signals through candlestick patterns [16] - "Market Trend Analysis" is highlighted as a comprehensive guide to identifying market trends and managing risk through various technical indicators [17][18] Group 4 - The importance of a systematic trading approach is emphasized, with "The Turtle Trading Rules" providing a framework for disciplined trading based on clear entry and exit rules [20] - "The Simplest Thing in Investing" offers localized strategies for the A-share market, focusing on finding undervalued stocks and understanding pricing power [21] Group 5 - The article stresses the psychological aspects of investing, highlighting the need for a rational mindset to navigate market volatility [22][23] - "Poor Charlie's Almanack" is recommended for its insights into multi-disciplinary thinking and investment philosophy [24] - "The Most Important Thing" by Howard Marks emphasizes understanding market cycles and risk management as key components of successful investing [25] Group 6 - The article addresses the impact of human psychology on investment decisions, suggesting strategies to overcome emotional biases [26][27] - "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" illustrates the influence of fear and greed on trading behavior through the life of Jesse Livermore [27] - "Fooled by Randomness" warns against cognitive biases and emphasizes the importance of risk management in unpredictable markets [28] Group 7 - The article provides a reading strategy for efficiently absorbing investment knowledge during holidays, suggesting a mix of short and long reading sessions [30][31] - It encourages practical application of learned concepts by identifying actionable insights from each book read [34][35] - The importance of verifying investment theories against current market conditions is highlighted to avoid blind adherence to strategies [36]
巴菲特会「卖飞」比亚迪么?
36氪· 2025-09-30 09:40
Core Viewpoint - Buffett's decision to sell BYD shares serves as a valuation warning but does not signify the end of BYD's long-term growth potential [3][37]. Group 1: Buffett's Selling Behavior - Buffett's exit from BYD after 17 years raises questions about his ability to "escape the peak" in investment [4]. - An analysis of 24 stocks sold by Berkshire Hathaway since 2006 shows that 13 of them experienced varying degrees of decline within a year after Buffett's exit [6]. - The most significant declines were seen in PetroChina, ConocoPhillips, and Wells Fargo, with drops of -70%, -30%, and -25% respectively [6][7]. Group 2: Long-term Performance of Sold Stocks - Over a longer period of five years, the number of stocks that continued to decline after Buffett's exit reduced to around six [8]. - For instance, Fannie Mae's stock fell over 100% before its bankruptcy, while UPS saw a decline of over 40% [8][9]. Group 3: BYD's Market Position and Challenges - BYD was a pioneer in the domestic electric vehicle market, benefiting from a significant first-mover advantage during the early stages of the industry [39]. - However, by 2022, the electric vehicle market shifted from growth to intense competition, leading to challenges for BYD, including sales pressure and profit margin compression due to price wars [44]. - The company's valuation had significantly deviated from historical averages, prompting Buffett's decision to sell [45]. Group 4: Future Outlook for BYD - Despite the short-term volatility following Buffett's exit, BYD's stock recorded a 28% gain since Buffett's initial sale in August 2022 [48]. - The company maintains a strong market position with a mature vehicle platform and self-research capabilities in core components, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook [51]. - Buffett's exit is viewed as a tactical adjustment rather than a complete rejection of BYD's future potential, indicating that the risks associated with the stock may have been largely mitigated [53].
汇丰晋信基金郑小兵:筑牢“安全防线”底部布局静待宏观共振
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-28 15:12
汇丰晋信基金郑小兵: 筑牢"安全防线" 底部布局静待宏观共振 四维框架筑牢安全防线 为提供更好的投资体验,投资的"安全边际"被不少基金经理放在了更重要的位置。郑小兵也以"安全"为 投资核心,观察宏观、行业、个股、买卖点四大维度,并最终指向"适配长期资金,追求回撤可控的长 期弹性",力求规避高估值风险。 他认为,宏观研判是投资决策的基石。他会结合康波周期等理论,判断国内外经济情况,比如当前处于 国内经济企稳回升、海外经济风险加剧的阶段,这直接决定了他的布局偏"左侧"与"风险控制",而非追 逐短期热门赛道,为长期资金的安全配置打下基础。 在行业选择上,他会通过"行业比较"筛选标的,聚焦估值底部、与国内经济相关性强、有长期潜力的行 业,明确表示不会参与拥有"梦想估值"的板块,避免因短期概念炒作导致长期资金承受风险。 ◎记者 朱妍 在结构性行情下,投资如何做到"稳健长盈"?对此,汇丰晋信基金经理郑小兵在接受上海证券报记者专 访时表示,应秉持"先防亏,再盈利"的理念,在有"安全边际"的前提下投资。展望后市,期待国内外宏 观共振拐点出现,因为其中蕴含全面上涨机遇。 在买卖点把控上,他则关注"情绪周期"。"我会通过分析市场 ...
如何做出巴菲特式的简单决策?不简单,不最好
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-24 01:57
Group 1 - The essence of value investing, established by Graham and Dodd, focuses on principles such as margin of safety, intrinsic value, and the evolution of investment strategies over time [1][2] - Buffett's approach to value investing incorporates qualitative analysis, emphasizing competitive advantages and intangible assets, which expands beyond Graham's focus on tangible assets [1] - The concept of "economic moat" is introduced, highlighting the importance of brand strength, management integrity, and the ability to generate cash flow for valuation [1] Group 2 - The internet has transformed business paradigms, leading to new characteristics in companies like META, Google, Amazon, Tencent, and Alibaba, which benefit from network effects and reduced marginal costs [3][4] - The rise of AI technology, supported by data, algorithms, and computing power, positions traditional internet giants favorably in the competitive landscape [4] Group 3 - The lifespan of companies has significantly decreased, with many once-prominent firms failing to adapt and ultimately disappearing, indicating that time can be an enemy of value investing [5][6] - The concept of entropy is introduced to explain the natural decline of companies over time, suggesting that maintaining vitality requires creating a dissipative structure [6][7] Group 4 - Companies must focus on reducing entropy to enhance their longevity and vitality, which involves being proactive, open to change, and ready to seize transformative opportunities [7][8] - The ability to maintain a strong "entropy reduction capacity" is crucial for a company's survival and success in the long term [8] Group 5 - Simple decision-making is emphasized as a key aspect of value investing, where identifying a few critical dimensions can lead to high-probability investment opportunities [9][10] - Examples of simple decisions include capitalizing on market downturns or temporary setbacks in companies that have strong fundamentals [11][12][13] Group 6 - The evolution of value investing must return to its foundational principles as outlined in Graham and Dodd's "Security Analysis," which serves as a guiding framework for investors [15]
人生,就是活在两个悬崖之间
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-24 00:01
丘吉尔的这句话令人触动。 故事3:有位被大家评价为超级聪明的朋友,说自己处在人生的低谷——"左右为难"。他一直认为自己 有较高的"人生均值",以至于因为傲慢而忽略了"人生波动"。幸运儿和聪明人,总是以为自己可以 被"不确定性"赦免,可事实并非如此, 本文的主题,与上面的三个故事紧密相关。 "在你的两边都有一个悬崖:一个是谨慎的悬崖,一个是过度大胆的悬崖。" 给我的启发是: 先分享三个真实的故事: 故事1:投资人李国飞只选有95%确定性的好公司。有次吃饭,我问他对年化回报率的要求,他说"没 有"。他只看未来五年到十年有数倍的涨幅可能性,但具体是多少,以及哪一年发生,自己"并不知 道"。 故事2:最近接触到一位年轻人,对投资充满了激情,也在当前短暂的牛市中获得了自信。他的话语体 系里都是"板块轮动、捕捉热点、最佳买点、追随故事......"简而言之,仿佛一切都可以预测,每个牛股 都能论天来择时捕获。 我们的人生并不是找到一个完美的、牢不可破的"点",而是要找到一个"区间"。 一个人生区间,可以由两个关键参数定义:中点c和半径r。 1、中点c代表了你的人生策略的"均值"或"核心"。 是偏向安稳,还是偏向冒险? 一 ...
指数牛市狂奔,价值老将为何掉队?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 05:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the paradox of value investors underperforming during a bull market, highlighting that many investors have lost money despite the overall market index rising significantly [3][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index approached 3900 points, with a cumulative increase of over 15% from previous levels [3][7]. - Over 60% of individual investors experienced losses during this bull market, with an average loss of 28% [7]. - Notably, 13 funds under a prominent institution failed to achieve positive returns, with six funds showing returns below -15% since their inception [4]. Group 2: Fund Performance - Specific funds under the Dongfanghong brand showed particularly poor performance, with the Dongfanghong Qixing Three-Year Holding A fund returning -35.05% since its establishment [5][6]. - Other underperforming funds included Dongfanghong Qirui Three-Year Holding A at -27.48% and Dongfanghong Xinyuan Three-Year Holding A at -20.11% [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - The article identifies five traps that led to losses for value investors, including chasing speculative trends, neglecting long-term investment principles, and failing to maintain risk awareness [7][8][9]. - Investors often deviated from core value investment principles, leading to poor decision-making during the bull market [7][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The bull market exhibited structural differentiation, with certain stocks and sectors, such as the liquor industry, experiencing declines despite the overall index rising [10]. - Psychological factors, such as greed and fear, significantly influenced investor behavior, leading to poor timing in buying and selling stocks [11][12]. Group 5: Evolving Investment Strategies - Value investors are encouraged to redefine their strategies in light of changing market conditions, focusing on high dividend yield stocks and emerging sectors like AI and biotechnology [13][14]. - The need for continuous adaptation in investment strategies is emphasized, as traditional approaches may no longer be effective in the current market landscape [14][15].
3800点重温《安全边际》,投资大师赛斯·卡拉曼:晚上睡的香比什么都重要
雪球· 2025-09-20 13:22
Group 1 - The core philosophy of value investing emphasizes risk avoidance and the importance of a margin of safety, which is crucial for long-term investment success [2][3][4] - Investors should focus on setting risk targets rather than return targets, as many investment strategies overlook loss avoidance [3][5] - Value investors must maintain discipline and patience, often standing against popular market trends to find undervalued securities [5][6] Group 2 - The concept of margin of safety involves conservatively assessing a company's intrinsic value and comparing it to its market price, which is fundamental to value investing [6][7] - Investors should be cautious about the potential decline in a company's value and respond with conservative evaluations and increased margin of safety [7][8] - The assessment of tangible assets should take precedence over intangible assets, as the latter are more challenging to evaluate [8][9] Group 3 - Value investing tends to shine during market downturns, as it allows investors to benefit from both performance recovery and valuation increases when market perceptions shift [11][12][13] - Market declines often create opportunities for value investors, as securities may be mispriced due to prevailing negative sentiment [12][13] Group 4 - Value investing is characterized by a bottom-up approach, focusing on absolute performance rather than relative performance, and is fundamentally a risk-averse strategy [15][16] - The relationship between market prices and potential value can be reflexive, meaning that stock prices can influence a company's perceived value [19][20] Group 5 - Reverse thinking is essential in value investing, as undervalued securities are often those that are out of favor, while popular stocks tend to be overvalued [22][23] - Successful reverse investors must be prepared for initial losses and uncertainty, as they often go against prevailing market trends [23][24] Group 6 - The effectiveness of research in value investing is limited by the 80/20 principle, where most useful information can be gathered quickly, and excessive research may hinder timely investment decisions [26][30] - Value investors should focus on identifying undervalued opportunities rather than attempting to gather exhaustive information, as low prices can provide a margin of safety [30][31]