2026年1月1日，全球投资界迎来一个历史性时刻。 95岁高龄的沃伦·巴菲特正式卸任伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官一职，由63岁的格雷格·阿贝尔接棒。这位被世人尊称为"奥马哈先知"和"邻家亿万富 翁"的投资巨擘，在执掌伯克希尔近60年后，终于步入正式退休阶段。尽管他仍将担任董事长，但这一交接标志着一个时代的落幕。 人们不禁要问，在长达八十余年的投资生涯中，他的财富是如何积累的？更重要的是，他留下的不仅是天文数字般的资产，更是一套穿越周期、历久弥新 的价值投资哲学。更重要的是巴菲特的关键投资决策、财富增长路径及其对全球资本市场的深远影响究竟有多大？ 还有大家最关心的，看似简单却内涵丰富的问题：他这一辈子，到底赚了多少钱？ 巴菲特的财富故事始于1942年，彼时他年仅11岁。用自己积攒的114.75美元，他买入了6股Cities Service优先股。这笔看似微不足道的投资，却点燃了他一 生对资本市场的热情。"我成了一名资本家，感觉真好。"他在2018年致股东信中回忆道。 到16岁时，他的投资组合已增值至相当于今天的5.3万美元；32岁成为百万富翁；56岁跻身亿万富翁行列。这一成长曲线并非依赖运气，而是源于他对复 ...

今日A股市场呈现出显著的"科技强、周期稳"特征，整体走势分化。上证指数全天维持窄幅震荡，最终 以3965.12点报收，与前一交易日持平，走势平稳。相比之下，深市表现更为活跃，深证成指收盘上涨 0.49%，创业板指上涨0.63%。 其中，科创50指数表现最为突出，涨幅达到1.01%，且成交量同步放大，显示出资金对科技创新板块的 明确偏好。这一走势与港股市场形成共振，恒生科技指数亦大幅上涨1.92%。 从行业板块观察，市场热点集中在两条主线。一方面，石油石化板块表现强势，以2.63%的涨幅领涨市 场，汽车、有色金属、机械设备等周期与制造板块紧随其后，涨幅均超过1.3%，共同构成推动市场的 主要动力。另一方面，以科创50为代表的科技成长股获得资金集中关注。 它要求投资者在众人因恐惧而抛售时，冷静地问："这家公司的核心'护城河'是否仍然坚固？"在市场因 贪婪而疯狂时，清醒地问："当前的价格是否已经透支了未来十年甚至更久的乐观预期？" 此外，严格遵守"安全边际"原则是这一框架的实践关键。它坦率地承认任何人对未来的预测都必然存在 误差，因此通过只在价格显著低于保守估算的内在价值时买入，来为未知的风险和自身可能犯的判断错 ...

很多人开始关心投资，往往不是因为想发财，而是某一天突然意识到：努力工作之外，我们对金钱、风险和长期选择，几乎一无所知。 市场每天都在变化，情绪、消息、运气轮番上场，真正让人焦虑的，其实是不知道自己在做什么，只能被涨跌牵着走。 我们读这些书，不是为了变得更聪明，而是为了在复杂和喧闹中，守住自己的判断。 当你真正理解了规则、原则和人性，赚钱与否反而成了结果，内心的笃定，才是长期最值钱的资产。 你会发现，有些人一生只反复讲几件事：理性、长期、边界、耐心。这些话听起来普通，却恰恰是大多数人在关键时刻最容易忘掉的。 01 《巴菲特致股东的信》 作者：沃伦·巴菲特 而这本书则是基于巴菲特执掌伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司期间撰写的年度信件，经劳伦斯·坎宁安按投资逻辑分类整合形成的教程式文本。 书中保留了巴菲特第一人称的叙述风格，系统整理了他52年的投资思想，内容涵盖公司治理、金融与投资、企业并购、估值与会计、税务等九大章节，新增 的年报内容通过注释标注信件年份来源，让读者能清晰地看到巴菲特投资理念的演变与深化。 巴菲特在书中反复强调"市场先生"的概念，他指出市场先生每天都会给出不同的报价，时而狂热，时而沮丧，但投资者不应被市场的短 ...

| | 中集安瑞科 交易收益测算 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 现金流入/流出 He SA | 交易类型 | 均价 (CNY) | 管注 | | 2025/7/10 | 5.721 | 建仓-买入 | | 现金流出/流出 含费用,下同 | | 2025/12/23 | 8.120 | 清世 | | 港股通T+2结算,现金流出额尚未获取;通过 成交价、汇率、费率等因素估算,非精确值 | | 年化收益率· | 114 7% | | | | 对于中集安瑞科，我是在7月初建立观察仓的，由于股价后面没有进一步下跌，因此没有加仓。假如持 有的量较多，这次有可能只会分批卖出一部分，而不是清仓。 当时建仓的主要理由如下： 来源：市场资讯 （来源：Charlie伴你投资） 声明：本文为个人思考记录，非投资建议 1、控股股东、管理层在增持股票，且控股股东的增持显得很急切和果断； 3、税前股息率略小于5%，不过红筹股税率较高，这一条勉强能接受，毕竟买这只股票是为了获取长期 资本收益，并非为了股息； 作为一只有一定成长潜力的股票，目前的价格可能并不算高，但格雷厄姆施洛斯 ...

I love to write about stocks, that's all. There is nothing profound in the musings here. Don't consider any of these ramblings as investment advice.My areas of interest are sustainable competitive advantage, margin of safety and asymmetric risk reward opportunities.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of business and investment, highlighting that understanding one enhances the comprehension of the other. It advocates for defining one's "circle of competence" and staying within it to make informed investment decisions [5][12][30]. Group 1: Circle of Competence - Warren Buffett stresses the importance of identifying and operating within one's circle of competence, using the example of Mrs. Blumkin, who successfully ran a furniture business by only engaging in areas she understood [9][19][22]. - Many CEOs of large companies often lack experience in capital allocation, leading to poor acquisition decisions when they venture outside their expertise [10][24][25]. - The article suggests that having fewer but more informed investment opportunities can lead to better outcomes, contrasting this with the prevalent culture on Wall Street that encourages frequent trading [11][32][36]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach advocated is to focus on high-quality businesses and to wait patiently for clear opportunities, rather than being swayed by market noise [30][36][60]. - The article discusses the advantages of owning a portion of a great business, like Coca-Cola, rather than seeking to acquire entire companies, which often leads to overpaying in competitive bidding situations [36][39][44]. - It highlights the importance of investing one’s own capital, as seen in Berkshire Hathaway, where management invests a significant portion of their wealth, aligning their interests with those of shareholders [39][40]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article critiques the modern investment theory that equates price volatility with risk, arguing that buying undervalued assets can be safer than overpaying for perceived stability [75][78]. - It points out the challenges of global competition and the risks associated with investing in foreign markets, emphasizing a preference for companies registered in the U.S. [81][83]. - The discussion includes the notion that successful investments often come from understanding the underlying business rather than relying on market trends or speculation [57][60].

近期，债市呈现震荡格局。在缺乏明显交易主线的背景下，市场人气不足，行情跟随消息面出现波动。 上周，受地产信用风险事件以及市场传闻冲击，短期市场担忧情绪被放大。 "过去一段时间，大家习惯了在债市获取稳健收益，但最近市场脾气变了。"部分债券基金经理对中国证 券报记者表示。在他们看来，震荡并非短期现象，而是债市收益率中枢进入较低水平后的常态，这对从 业人员提出了更高要求，机构投资者需要从单边市向震荡市思维转变。 近期，债市波动明显加大。上周，债市延续震荡格局，机构出现赎回止损迹象。后半周的债市虽有所修 复，但中短端债券表现仍然不尽如人意。 房企债券展期事件成为触发近期市场避险情绪的直接导火索，近期多只相关债券被临时停牌。此外，市 场关于债基赎回费率改革以及其他传闻的讨论，让市场短期的担忧情绪被放大。在业内人士看来，费率 新规关于债基赎回费的规定削弱了债基作为短期交易工具的吸引力，此前机构常用的短频交易博取利差 策略的成本大幅上升。 "最近切实感受到了压力，虽然我管理的产品还没有出现大额赎回，但如果继续调整，投资者就快要受 不了啦。"一家中小基金公司的债券基金经理表示，临近年底，机构投资者持续抛售。此外，近期对于 债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a company's competitive advantages, referred to as "moats," in ensuring long-term profitability and investment safety, rather than merely focusing on stock prices [3][28]. Summary by Sections Concept of Moats - A moat is defined as a barrier that protects a company's profits from competitors, making it difficult for them to erode its market position [3][4]. - The essence of a moat is that it allows a company to provide products or services that others cannot replicate easily or at a high cost [4]. Types of Moats 1. **Brand** - Strong brands lead to customer willingness to pay a premium and foster long-term repurchase behavior [6]. - Examples include Moutai and Apple, where brand loyalty creates a "default choice" for consumers [6][7]. 2. **Patents** - Patents provide exclusive rights to produce a product, allowing for high profits during their effective period [8]. - The sustainability of a moat through patents depends on a company's ability to continuously innovate and secure new patents [9]. 3. **Scale and Cost Advantages** - Scale advantages arise when a company can reduce costs to levels that competitors cannot match, as seen with Fuyao Glass [10][12]. - Large-scale operations allow for better pricing power and efficiency, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of growth [12][14]. 4. **High Switching Costs** - High switching costs lock customers into a company's products or services, making it difficult for them to change suppliers [15][16]. - Examples include software systems and financial services where the cost and effort to switch are significant [16]. 5. **Network Effects** - Network effects enhance a product's value as more users join, creating a strong competitive advantage [17][18]. - Platforms like WeChat and Douyin illustrate how user growth leads to increased value and user retention [18][20]. 6. **Talent Attraction** - The ability to attract top talent is a crucial moat, as it leads to better products and innovation [21][22]. - Companies like Apple and Tencent benefit from having the best talent, which in turn enhances their competitive position [22]. Maintenance of Moats - Moats require ongoing maintenance and investment to remain effective; neglecting them can lead to erosion of competitive advantages [24][25]. - Companies that continuously invest in R&D and brand integrity, like Moutai and Apple, are examples of effective moat maintenance [24][25]. Investment Perspective - Investors should focus on companies with wide moats as they provide inherent safety margins due to their ability to maintain profitability over time [26][27]. - The article concludes that identifying companies with strong moats is essential for long-term investment success, as these companies are more likely to sustain high profits [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment strategies and the challenges faced by ordinary investors in selecting stocks and timing their trades, suggesting that asset allocation may provide a more stable approach to investing [7][36]. Group 1: Investment Understanding - There are four levels of investment understanding, with most people mistakenly believing they are at a higher level than they actually are, as only 10% of market participants are profitable [3][5]. - The article summarizes insights from a deep interview with investor Duan Yongping, highlighting his intuitive grasp of business despite acknowledging his own limitations in understanding [4][7]. Group 2: Stock Selection Challenges - Three methods of stock selection are discussed: technical trading, value investing, and copying successful investors, with each method presenting significant challenges [8][28]. - Technical trading is discouraged as it is likened to giving money to quantitative funds that operate with high speed and accuracy [9][10]. - Value investing requires deep understanding of companies, which is difficult for most ordinary investors due to a lack of experience and time [12][20]. - Copying the trades of successful investors can lead to poor outcomes due to information lag and lack of understanding of the underlying investment logic [24][25]. Group 3: Timing the Market - Timing the market is presented as another difficult aspect of investing, with Duan Yongping focusing on "margin of safety" when buying and "opportunity cost" when selling [30][33]. - Most ordinary investors struggle with these concepts as they require a deep understanding of the companies involved [34]. Group 4: Asset Allocation as a Solution - Asset allocation is proposed as a viable alternative to stock selection and timing, as it leverages the natural relationships between different asset classes [36][39]. - By diversifying investments across various asset classes, investors can achieve internal hedging, allowing for stable returns regardless of market conditions [41][44]. - The article highlights that asset allocation does not require precise market timing, making it a more accessible strategy for ordinary investors [46][52]. - Rebalancing strategies can further enhance returns by allowing investors to sell high-performing assets and buy underperforming ones, thus smoothing out the investment curve [55][58].

一、本周交易 1.定投账户1 3.女儿定投账户 分众传媒，11月24日股息入账35元，持有700股，每股股息0.05元。 二、持仓跟踪 1.洋河股份 近一周公告不少，涉及治理制度修订、董事会对外捐赠、ESG委员会组建等。 但股价下行趋势，没受明显影响，本周继续下跌4%+。 分众传媒，11月24日股息入账105元，持有2100股，每股股息0.05元。 2.定投账户2 分众传媒，11月24日股息入账10元，持有200股，每股股息0.05元。 交易计划仍为65元加仓，执行纪律：跌多买、涨多卖。 2.伊利股份 中期分红预案公布，每股0.48元，总额30.36亿元，占前三季度净利润的29%。 此为首次实施年中分红，响应监管层"提质增效重回报"导向，待股东大会后最终确定。 自1996年上市以来，累计分红26次，总额达616亿元，平均分红率64%。 按最新股价测算，年化股息率超6%。宝贝疙瘩，可得好好守护好你。 另，公司于2025年5月19日完成10亿元回购并注销，约占总股本0.64%。 股份总量减少，每股价值提高，资产负债率微降，算是给股东的一个积极信号。 马斯克推崇的"第一性原理"，本质上也是回归常识。而常识，往往是多 ...