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为什么投资赚钱的永远是少数人?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 10:47
林奇还是有许多真知灼见的,相比之下,国内国外到处流行什么"轻松理财"啊,什么在"小吃店遇见巴 菲特"啊,什么"隔壁的百万富翁"啊,我们得提防着点,它们只会轻松地从你口袋里掏钱,而不是让你 轻松地赚钱。一个稍有脑子的人只要想想,如果赚钱这么容易,天下人一定都赚钱了,钱也就不是稀缺 资源了。但我们绝大多数人能轻松地买一艘游艇吗?唯一看似轻松的彩票中奖赚大钱也不容易,如果你 刻意要成功的话。 遗憾的是,除了买彩票之外,不少人都认为通过股票(或房地产)投机是最容易的赚钱方式。同理,如 果通过这种方式最容易赚钱,古往今来(至少三百年来),股市或房地产业的富翁应该占世界富豪榜的 绝大多数。当然不是。 导读:投资环境的变化沧海桑田,犹如地震般不可预期,但健全的投资原则会产生健全的投资结果,这 大抵仍是不变的事实,它们将持续如此发展,我们的理论则必须建立在这个假定之上。 人都是趋利避害,每次市场开始有波动的时候,大多数的投资者就会开始怀疑自己的选择,这样往往会 导致买了牛股却拿不住,最终赚不到钱,甚至是亏钱。而伟大的投资者之所以伟大,恰恰是因为能够坚 持自己的观点,不为外界因素所干扰,某些时候敢于站在人群的对立面。一些短期看 ...
十一长假充电指南:5类投资好书助你逆袭“财富认知”
雪球· 2025-10-03 07:58
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of financial literacy and developing a proper money mindset as the first step towards wealth freedom, especially for beginners who feel they have "no money to manage" [4][5][6] - It introduces engaging and easy-to-understand books like "The Rich Dad Poor Dad" and "The Little Money Dog" to help readers build a new understanding of wealth and financial management [5][6] - The article highlights the significance of value investing, founded by Benjamin Graham, which focuses on finding stocks priced below their intrinsic value for long-term gains [8][9] Group 2 - "The Intelligent Investor" is presented as a foundational text in value investing, introducing the concept of "margin of safety" to protect against market volatility [9] - "Warren Buffett's Letters to Shareholders" provides insights into Buffett's investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of long-term competitive advantages and intrinsic value over short-term price fluctuations [10] - Practical methods for applying value investing principles in stock selection and asset allocation are discussed, including industry analysis and financial metrics [11][12] Group 3 - The article discusses the basics of technical analysis, which helps investors make informed decisions based on historical price and volume data [15][16] - "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" is recommended for understanding market trends and buy/sell signals through candlestick patterns [16] - "Market Trend Analysis" is highlighted as a comprehensive guide to identifying market trends and managing risk through various technical indicators [17][18] Group 4 - The importance of a systematic trading approach is emphasized, with "The Turtle Trading Rules" providing a framework for disciplined trading based on clear entry and exit rules [20] - "The Simplest Thing in Investing" offers localized strategies for the A-share market, focusing on finding undervalued stocks and understanding pricing power [21] Group 5 - The article stresses the psychological aspects of investing, highlighting the need for a rational mindset to navigate market volatility [22][23] - "Poor Charlie's Almanack" is recommended for its insights into multi-disciplinary thinking and investment philosophy [24] - "The Most Important Thing" by Howard Marks emphasizes understanding market cycles and risk management as key components of successful investing [25] Group 6 - The article addresses the impact of human psychology on investment decisions, suggesting strategies to overcome emotional biases [26][27] - "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" illustrates the influence of fear and greed on trading behavior through the life of Jesse Livermore [27] - "Fooled by Randomness" warns against cognitive biases and emphasizes the importance of risk management in unpredictable markets [28] Group 7 - The article provides a reading strategy for efficiently absorbing investment knowledge during holidays, suggesting a mix of short and long reading sessions [30][31] - It encourages practical application of learned concepts by identifying actionable insights from each book read [34][35] - The importance of verifying investment theories against current market conditions is highlighted to avoid blind adherence to strategies [36]
如何做出巴菲特式的简单决策?不简单,不最好
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-24 01:57
Group 1 - The essence of value investing, established by Graham and Dodd, focuses on principles such as margin of safety, intrinsic value, and the evolution of investment strategies over time [1][2] - Buffett's approach to value investing incorporates qualitative analysis, emphasizing competitive advantages and intangible assets, which expands beyond Graham's focus on tangible assets [1] - The concept of "economic moat" is introduced, highlighting the importance of brand strength, management integrity, and the ability to generate cash flow for valuation [1] Group 2 - The internet has transformed business paradigms, leading to new characteristics in companies like META, Google, Amazon, Tencent, and Alibaba, which benefit from network effects and reduced marginal costs [3][4] - The rise of AI technology, supported by data, algorithms, and computing power, positions traditional internet giants favorably in the competitive landscape [4] Group 3 - The lifespan of companies has significantly decreased, with many once-prominent firms failing to adapt and ultimately disappearing, indicating that time can be an enemy of value investing [5][6] - The concept of entropy is introduced to explain the natural decline of companies over time, suggesting that maintaining vitality requires creating a dissipative structure [6][7] Group 4 - Companies must focus on reducing entropy to enhance their longevity and vitality, which involves being proactive, open to change, and ready to seize transformative opportunities [7][8] - The ability to maintain a strong "entropy reduction capacity" is crucial for a company's survival and success in the long term [8] Group 5 - Simple decision-making is emphasized as a key aspect of value investing, where identifying a few critical dimensions can lead to high-probability investment opportunities [9][10] - Examples of simple decisions include capitalizing on market downturns or temporary setbacks in companies that have strong fundamentals [11][12][13] Group 6 - The evolution of value investing must return to its foundational principles as outlined in Graham and Dodd's "Security Analysis," which serves as a guiding framework for investors [15]
价值投资的四个理念,你做到了么?|投资小知识
银行螺丝钉· 2025-09-04 14:11
Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes focusing on companies that can generate profits over the long term, as many stocks may underperform or only occasionally yield profits [2][3]. - The concept of margin of safety is introduced, defined as purchasing an asset worth 1 unit for only 0.6 units [3]. - Various valuation metrics are discussed, including price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and price-to-book (P/B) ratio, along with absolute valuation methods like discounted cash flow [4]. Group 2 - The article describes the stock market's volatility, likening it to a "Mr. Market" who is erratic and provides daily price quotes, suggesting that investors should not be swayed by short-term fluctuations [7]. - It is advised to establish a personal investment philosophy and understand the intrinsic value of investments to identify undervalued opportunities [7]. - The concept of a "circle of competence" is mentioned, indicating the importance of investing within areas of expertise [8].
市场涨跌变化,收益坐过山车怎么办?
银行螺丝钉· 2025-08-28 04:01
Core Viewpoint - Market fluctuations, likened to a roller coaster, are an essential part of long-term investing, and investors must learn to navigate these ups and downs [1][3]. Understanding Market Fluctuations - The concept of "Mr. Market," introduced by Benjamin Graham, illustrates the unpredictable nature of market prices, which can swing between optimism and pessimism [3][5]. - Investors with experience and psychological resilience are less likely to be swayed by these market fluctuations [4][6]. Investment Strategy - A sound investment strategy involves buying when prices are significantly below intrinsic value and selling when prices are significantly above it, while ignoring market noise during other times [4][8]. - Market volatility presents opportunities for undervalued buying or overvalued selling [7]. Tools to Mitigate Market Impact - Utilizing objective metrics such as star ratings and valuation indicators can help investors avoid emotional decision-making influenced by market fluctuations [8]. - Historical data shows that market indices tend to rise over the long term, with each bear market bottom likely being higher than the previous one, indicating a general upward trend [8]. Long-term Investment Benefits - Long-term holding of undervalued assets can yield satisfactory returns, even in the absence of a bull market, primarily driven by corporate earnings growth [10][12]. - In bull markets, investors can benefit from both corporate earnings and the additional gains from market enthusiasm, which can be viewed as "extra bonuses" from Mr. Market [13][14]. Conclusion - The roller coaster of market fluctuations is not inherently negative; buying undervalued assets and benefiting from corporate growth can lead to returns that surpass many other investment options [16]. - Maintaining a rational and patient approach, along with a calm mindset, is crucial for successful investing [17].
为什么价值投资适合中国
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-12 00:02
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of Benjamin Graham's book "Security Analysis" as a foundational text for understanding investment philosophy and methodology [1][10][12] - It highlights three main investment principles from Graham: margin of safety, Mr. Market, and investing with a business perspective [5][10] - The text discusses the significance of financial statements in assessing a company's intrinsic value and the need for deeper analysis beyond surface-level profit growth [2][3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Philosophy - Graham's investment philosophy is rooted in the concepts of margin of safety, which arises from both undervaluation and solid fundamentals, and Mr. Market, who can exhibit extreme optimism or pessimism [5][6] - The article suggests that understanding these principles is crucial for value investing, especially in volatile markets like A-shares [5][6] Financial Analysis - The book "Security Analysis" provides a framework for fundamental analysis through financial statements, allowing investors to evaluate a company's intrinsic capabilities and value over time [2][3] - It stresses the importance of recognizing that financial data reflects underlying business realities, which may not always align with short-term market perceptions [3][4] Market Dynamics - The article notes that market conditions, particularly in China, have evolved rapidly, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors [2][3] - It points out that while industries may show impressive growth in financial reports, the underlying business models and competitive advantages must be critically assessed to avoid pitfalls [4][5] Value Investing in China - The text asserts that value investing principles are applicable in the Chinese market, with historical evidence of successful long-term returns for value investors [6][11] - It highlights the need for investors to develop independent judgment and discipline in their investment approach, particularly in a rapidly changing economic landscape [6][11]
高毅资产邱国鹭:为什么价值投资适合中国
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 09:12
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing in the Chinese market, highlighting that "Securities Analysis" serves as an essential guide for investors to understand both the methodology and philosophy behind value investing [3][9] - It discusses three main investment principles from Graham: margin of safety, Mr. Market, and investing with a business perspective, which are interconnected and form a logical framework for value investing [6][9] Financial Analysis - The book "Securities Analysis" uses accounting language as its foundation, focusing on financial statements to provide a practical methodology for fundamental analysis [4] - It suggests that analyzing a company's financial performance over time can help assess its intrinsic capabilities and value, similar to evaluating a student's academic performance [4][5] - The article stresses the need to look beyond surface-level profit growth and to analyze the underlying capabilities of companies through their financial reports [6][7] Market Dynamics - The article notes that price fluctuations reflect underlying value, with stock prices being influenced by both fundamental data and intrinsic capabilities [8] - It highlights the volatility of stock prices in the A-share market, which can create opportunities for investors when prices are significantly undervalued [8] - The discussion includes the importance of understanding a company's core competitiveness, industry landscape, and management quality as part of assessing its intrinsic value [8][9] Investment Philosophy - The article asserts that value investing is applicable in China, supported by historical evidence of high long-term returns for skilled value investors [9] - It emphasizes the necessity for investors to develop discipline and independent judgment, which can be enhanced by mastering the knowledge and techniques presented in "Securities Analysis" [9]
《证券分析》第七版推荐序,邱国鹭:为什么价值投资适合中国
高毅资产管理· 2025-06-25 06:10
Core Viewpoint - Value investing is suitable for China, as it combines investment methodology with philosophy and principles, helping investors connect theory with practice [1][8]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Graham's main investment ideas include safety margin, Mr. Market, and investing with a business perspective [1][7]. - Safety margin arises from two aspects: fundamental undervaluation and solid fundamentals [7]. - Mr. Market is described as an extreme character, fluctuating between optimism and pessimism, which is often observed in the A-share market [7]. Group 2: Financial Analysis - The book "Security Analysis" uses accounting language and focuses on financial statements, providing a method for fundamental analysis [2]. - Analyzing a company's financial statements over time can help assess its intrinsic capabilities and value [2][3]. - The essence of a company is reflected in its financial data, which can fluctuate, but the core remains more stable [3]. Group 3: Investment Elements - The three basic elements of investment are valuation, quality, and timing [4]. - Valuation analysis in "Security Analysis" offers various accounting and quantitative perspectives to evaluate a company's fundamentals [4]. - Understanding a company's quality requires deep industry knowledge and experience to uncover deeper capabilities beyond financial statements [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The stock price reflects a two-layer mapping: the first layer is the price reflecting fundamental data, and the second layer is fundamental data reflecting intrinsic value [7]. - The volatility of stock prices provides opportunities for investors when intrinsic value is significantly underestimated [7]. Group 5: Practical Application - Value investing in China has shown high long-term returns for many successful investors, but it requires strong discipline and independent judgment [8]. - Mastering the knowledge and techniques in "Security Analysis" can help investors develop discipline and independent judgment [8].
投资小知识:四个原则,帮你快速掌握价值投资的精髓
银行螺丝钉· 2025-04-19 12:32
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 便宜,是不是值得买入。 (3) 市场先生 市场先生是一个狂躁的、精力旺盛的、喜 怒无常的人,他每天的工作,就是跑过来 给你报价格。 明白了这一点,我们在投资股票资产的时 候,关注的重点,就会从股价短期涨跌, 变成了背后公司的经营状况。 股票背后的公司赚了钱,时间拉长后,我 们投资的股票也是赚钱的。 (2) 要有安全边际的意识 安全边际用一句话来总结就是,用6毛钱, 买价值1块钱的东西。 如果是1块钱买价值1块钱的东西,那也没 有什么赚头。 那么,我们怎么知道公司值多少钱呢?这 就是我们常说的估值指标了。 市盈率是估值指标的一种。除此之外还有 市净率等其他指标;也有现金流折现等绝 对估值法。 估值可以帮助我们大概判断,现在是不是 很多时候,投资者亏了钱,往往是因为不 了解一个品种,只是看到短期大涨,就贸 然投入过多的资金。 换句话说,投资超出自己的能力圈范围。 在股票市场,想要建立自己的能力圈,确 实是需要花费很多精力的。 •有的时候他非常的乐观,给你报一个很高 的价格; ·有的时候他非常的悲观,给你报一个非常 低的价格。 当市场短期充满了非理性的贪婪或恐慌, 同时市场成 ...