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政府债周报:四季度地方债发行计划已披露七千三百亿-20250925
Guoxin Securities· 2025-09-25 08:16
证券研究报告 | 2025年09月25日 政府债周报 四季度地方债发行计划已披露七千三百亿 政府债净融资第 38 周(9/15-9/21)3179 亿,第 39 周(9/22-9/28)-220 亿。截至第 38 周(9/15-9/21)累计 11.5 万亿,超出去年同期 5.1 万 亿。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 38 周(9/15-9/21)4056 亿,第 39 周 (9/22-9/28)108 亿。截至第 38 周(9/15-9/21)广义赤字累计 9.7 万 亿,进度 81.9%。 国债第 38 周(9/15-9/21)净融资 2871 亿,第 39 周(9/22-9/28)-1444 亿。截至第 38 周(9/15-9/21)累计 5.5 万亿,进度 83.2%。 地方债净融资第 38 周(9/15-9/21)309 亿,第 39 周(9/22-9/28)1225 亿。截至第 38 周(9/15-9/21)累计 6.0 万亿,超出去年同期 2.7 万亿。 截至 9-24,四季度地方债发行计划七千三百亿,包括四百亿新增一般债 和三千九百亿新增专项债。截至 9-24,2025 年四季度地方债发行计 ...
置换债是否会在Q4提前发行、有何影响?
Xinda Securities· 2025-09-14 12:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank maintains a relatively loose stance within the existing framework, as indicated by the OMO's resumption of large - scale operations after DR001 rose above 1.4%, the increase in banks' rigid net lending to over 4 trillion yuan, and the 300 - billion - yuan over - renewal of the 6 - month outright reverse repurchase [3][19]. - There is no need to over - worry about the so - called "deposit relocation" caused by the rise of the A - share market. The increase in M1 in August was affected by the base effect, and the reason for the increase in non - bank deposits is difficult to determine from the data [21]. - The statement of "advancing the issuance of part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and using debt - resolution quotas earlier" does not necessarily mean that the 2 - trillion - yuan replacement bonds in 2026 will be issued ahead of schedule in Q4 [3][40]. - Without new quotas, the average monthly net financing scale of government bonds in Q4 is estimated to be about 633.5 billion yuan, lower than the average of the first three quarters. Unless there is a significant decline in fiscal deposits in September, the early issuance of Q4 replacement bonds is not the baseline expectation. Even if they are issued early, the impact on liquidity is controllable [4][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Fundamentals Review - The central bank's OMO had a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan this week, and announced a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation next Monday, with a monthly net injection of 300 billion yuan. Affected by government bond payments and the previous OMO net withdrawal, funds tightened in the first half of the week, with DR001 rising to 1.43%. After Wednesday, as the central bank's reverse repurchase shifted to net injection, the funds loosened marginally, and DR001 fell back below 1.4% [3][7]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased from the high level in the second half of last week, but the average daily trading volume increased by 1.8 trillion yuan to 73.9 trillion yuan. The overall scale of pledged repurchase decreased in the first half of the week and then increased in the second half, still slightly lower than last Friday. In terms of institutions, the net lending of large - scale banks decreased continuously in the first half of the week and recovered after Thursday, the net lending of city - commercial banks fluctuated slightly, and the net lending of joint - stock banks increased. The overall rigid net lending of banks decreased in the first half of the week and then fluctuated and recovered in the second half, rising back above 4 trillion yuan. The non - bank rigid lending increased, mainly due to the large increase in money - market fund lending, while the lending of wealth - management products decreased slightly. The non - bank rigid borrowing decreased, mainly due to the decrease in fund borrowing, while the borrowing of insurance and other products increased. The fund gap index first rose and then fell, rising to - 318 billion on Wednesday and then falling to - 539.9 billion on Friday, still higher than - 621.3 billion last Friday [3][17]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Fund Outlook - The estimated scale of treasury bond payments next week is 392 billion yuan. As of this week, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 is 635.5 billion yuan, new special bonds is 3.4138 trillion yuan, ordinary refinancing bonds is 2.0641 trillion yuan, and special refinancing bonds is 1.9629 trillion yuan. The issuance scale of local bonds in 10 regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Xinjiang next week is 188.5 billion yuan, including 20.7 billion yuan of new general bonds, 97.8 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 70 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, with an actual payment scale of 190.2 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will rise from 344.2 billion yuan this week to 402.5 billion yuan [22]. - Next week, funds will face multiple disturbing factors, with greater pressure in the first half of the week. However, the funds injected through outright repurchase will provide some hedging. Considering that the central bank's relatively loose stance within the existing framework remains unchanged, the probability of significant fluctuations in subsequent fund prices is relatively limited, and DR001 may not remain above 1.4% [4]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1 - year Shibor rate rose 0.7 BP to 1.67%, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.5 BP to 1.67%. The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, but the maturity scale increased more, resulting in a net repayment of 424.1 billion yuan. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 135.6 billion yuan, - 98.3 billion yuan, - 159.8 billion yuan, and - 23.6 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit rose to 15%, and the issuance proportion of 3 - month certificates of deposit was the highest at 34%. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 894.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 315.7 billion yuan compared with this week [4][45][49]. - The issuance success rates of certificates of deposit of various banks decreased compared with last week. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of state - owned banks, the others were around the average level in recent years. The issuance spread between 1 - year certificates of deposit of city - commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [50]. - This week, the relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit fluctuated and increased. The willingness of money - market funds to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit significantly increased after Thursday, the overall demand of wealth - management products for certificates of deposit increased slightly, the demand of non - money funds and other products for certificates of deposit decreased in the middle of the week and then recovered on Friday, and joint - stock banks continuously reduced their holdings after Tuesday. The supply - demand index of certificates of deposit continuously increased after Monday, rising to 36.4% on Friday, a 4.8 - percentage - point increase compared with September 5. In terms of different maturities, the supply - demand indexes of 1 - month and 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased, while those of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month varieties increased [59]. 3.3 Bill Market This week, bill rates showed a divergent trend. The 3 - month national bill rate decreased by 3 BP to 1.15% month - on - month, while the 6 - month national bill rate increased by 6 BP to 0.79% [64]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, the bond market performed weakly, the yield curve steepened and rose, and the spread of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds widened [66]. - Large - scale banks' willingness to increase their bond holdings increased significantly, mainly showing an inclination to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit and long - term treasury bonds, and a significant increase in the willingness to increase their holdings of medium - and short - term treasury bonds and long - term policy - bank bonds, but an inclination to reduce their holdings of ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 5 - 7 - year policy - bank bonds. Trading - oriented institutions shifted to a tendency to reduce their bond holdings. Among them, fund companies tended to reduce their holdings, securities companies' willingness to reduce their holdings increased, other products' willingness to increase their holdings decreased, and other institutions' willingness to increase their holdings increased slightly. All allocation - oriented institutions' willingness to increase their bond holdings increased significantly [66].
政府债净融资放量
Guoxin Securities· 2025-09-11 09:42
Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report presents some basic economic data, including the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment at 1.60%, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the current month at 3.70%, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the current month at 4.40%, and M2 at 8.80% [4]. Summary by Relevant Categories Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 206.5 billion yuan in the 36th week (9/1 - 9/7) and 608 billion yuan in the 37th week (9/8 - 9/14). As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount reached 10.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.7 trillion yuan [1][5]. Treasury Bond and Local Bond - The net financing of treasury bonds was 169.8 billion yuan in the 36th week and 415.2 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 4.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 72.7%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [7]. - Local bond net financing was 36.7 billion yuan in the 36th week and 192.8 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 5.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.9 trillion yuan [9]. New General Bonds and New Special Bonds - New general bonds had 0 net financing in the 36th week and 14.7 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 620.8 billion yuan, with a progress of 77.6%, exceeding the same period last year [9]. - New special bonds had a net financing of 178 billion yuan in the 36th week and 131.9 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 3.3 trillion yuan, with a progress of 74.6%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 112.23 billion yuan had been issued, including 15.43 billion yuan since September. Land reserve special bonds of 32.84 billion yuan had been issued [2][12]. Special Refinancing Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - Special refinancing bonds had 0 net financing in the 36th week and 26.2 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 1.96 trillion yuan, with a issuance progress of 98% [22]. - Urban investment bonds had a net financing of -36.9 billion yuan in the 36th week and are expected to be -10.9 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was 10.1 trillion yuan [2][27].
政府债周报:特殊新增专项债已发行1.1万亿-20250904
Guoxin Securities· 2025-09-04 05:51
政府债净融资第 35 周(8/25-8/31)64 亿,第 36 周(9/1-9/7)2065 亿。截至第 35 周(8/25-8/31)累计 10.3 万亿,超出去年同期 4.5 万 亿。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 35 周(8/25-8/31)-138 亿,第 36 周 (9/1-9/7)1877 亿。截至第 35 周(8/25-8/31)广义赤字累计 8.6 万 亿,进度 72.1%。 国债第 35 周(8/25-8/31)净融资-2371 亿,第 36 周(9/1-9/7)1698 亿。截至第 35 周(8/25-8/31)累计 4.7 万亿,进度 70.1%。 地方债净融资第 35 周(8/25-8/31)2435 亿,第 36 周(9/1-9/7)367 亿。截至第 35 周(8/25-8/31)累计 5.7 万亿。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月04日 政府债周报 特殊新增专项债已发行 1.1 万亿 新增一般债第 35 周(8/25-8/31)353 亿,第 36 周(9/1-9/7)0 亿。 截至第 35 周(8/25-8/31)累计 6208 亿,进度 77.6%。 新增专项债第 3 ...
政府债周报:特殊新增专项债发行近万亿-20250828
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-28 02:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The report presents key economic indicators including a 1.60% year - on - year cumulative growth in fixed asset investment, 3.70% year - on - year growth in the total retail sales of consumer goods for the current month, 7.20% year - on - year growth in exports for the current month, and an 8.80% growth in M2 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 5614 billion yuan in the 34th week (8/18 - 8/24) and 64 billion yuan in the 35th week (8/25 - 8/31). As of the 34th week, the cumulative net financing reached 10.3 trillion yuan, 4.8 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][5]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond net financing was 3526 billion yuan in the 34th week and - 2371 billion yuan in the 35th week. The annual net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 34th week, the cumulative net financing was 4.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 73.7%, exceeding the average of the past five years [6]. Local Bond - Local bond net financing was 2088 billion yuan in the 34th week and 2435 billion yuan in the 35th week. As of the 34th week, the cumulative net financing was 5.5 trillion yuan, 3 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [8]. New General Bond - New general bond issuance was 95 billion yuan in the 34th week and 353 billion yuan in the 35th week. The 2025 local deficit is 8000 billion yuan. As of the 34th week, the cumulative issuance was 5855 billion yuan, with a progress of 73.2%, exceeding the same period last year [8]. New Special Bond - New special bond issuance was 2393 billion yuan in the 34th week and 1880 billion yuan in the 35th week. The 2025 new special bond quota is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 34th week, the cumulative issuance was 3.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 69.9%, exceeding the same period last year [12]. Special New Special Bond - Special new special bonds worth 9680 billion yuan have been issued, with 2129 billion yuan issued since August, accounting for 44% of new special bonds. Besides 800 billion yuan for debt resolution, the remaining over 100 billion yuan will be used for "arrears clearance" [12]. Land Reserve Special Bond - Land reserve special bonds worth 3031 billion yuan have been issued. As of August 24, projects in 27 provinces and municipalities covered 4949 parcels of land, with a total capital scale of 5476 billion yuan [12]. Special Refinancing Bond - Special refinancing bond issuance was 245 billion yuan in the 34th week and 291 billion yuan in the 35th week. As of the 34th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 95% [22]. Urban Investment Bond - Urban investment bond net financing was - 6 billion yuan in the 34th week and is expected to be - 402 billion yuan in the 35th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is 10.2 trillion yuan [2][27].
政府债周报:特殊新增专项债已超过八千亿-20250807
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-07 05:05
Government Debt Financing - Net financing for government debt in week 31 (July 28 - August 3) was 402.8 billion, and in week 32 (August 4 - August 10) it was 397.4 billion, totaling 9.2 trillion, exceeding last year's 5 trillion[1] - The cumulative general deficit reached 7.3 trillion, with a progress rate of 61.7%[5] - Net financing for treasury bonds in week 31 was 160.2 billion, and in week 32 it was 314.6 billion, totaling 4.0 trillion, with a progress rate of 60.1%[7] Local Government Debt - Net financing for local government debt in week 31 was 242.5 billion, and in week 32 it was 82.8 billion, totaling 5.2 trillion, exceeding last year's 3.1 trillion[9] - New general bonds issued in week 31 were 20.9 billion, and in week 32 they were 7.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 538.3 billion and a progress rate of 67.3%[9] Special Bonds - New special bonds in week 31 amounted to 183.2 billion, and in week 32 they were 40.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion and a progress rate of 63.1%[13] - Special new bonds issued reached 806 billion, surpassing the initial target of 800 billion, with 509 billion issued since August, accounting for 98% of new special bonds[13] Risk and Warnings - There is a risk of data statistical errors, with actual issuance potentially differing significantly from planned figures[3]
民生证券:综合看8月资金面不具备收紧的基础
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 00:05
Core Viewpoint - The central bank's attitude towards the funding environment remains unchanged, indicating that there is no basis for tightening the funding situation in August [1] Group 1: Funding Situation - It is expected that the net financing of government bonds in August will be between 1.17 trillion and 1.39 trillion yuan, which is close to July's figures [1] - Starting in August, the maturity and operation timing of the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) will align, both occurring on the 25th of each month [1] - The combined maturity of MLF and reverse repos in August is 1.2 trillion yuan, which is lower than July's 1.5 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Since May, the combined net injection from MLF and reverse repos has been positive, suggesting that there is no need for excessive concern regarding the funding environment [1]
政府债周报:国债净融资边际放缓-20250725
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-25 09:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - The core view includes basic economic data such as the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment at 2.80, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the current month at 4.80, the year - on - year growth rate of exports in the current month at 5.90, and M2 at 8.30 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 208.6 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20) and 303.6 billion yuan in the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27). As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 8.4 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.5 trillion yuan, mainly due to the misalignment of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and the rapid issuance of treasury bonds [1][7]. - The sum of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 247.2 billion yuan in the 29th week and 239.4 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative general deficit was 6.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 56.6% [1][7]. Treasury Bond Net Financing - Treasury bond net financing was 5.82 billion yuan in the 29th week and 1.07 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 3.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 57.5%, exceeding the same period in the past five years. The total annual treasury bond net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan. In 2025, the central deficit is 4.86 trillion yuan, with 1.8 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds arranged: 1.3 trillion yuan is ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (300 billion yuan for consumer goods trade - in), and 500 billion yuan is for supplementing the capital of state - owned large - scale banks [1][8]. Local Bond Net Financing - Local bond net financing was 150.5 billion yuan in the 29th week and 292.9 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 4.6 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.8 trillion yuan [1][10]. New General Bond - New general bond issuance was 2.76 billion yuan in the 29th week and 2.33 billion yuan in the 30th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 49.41 billion yuan, with a progress of 61.8%, exceeding the same period last year [2][11][13]. New Special Bond - New special bond issuance was 161.4 billion yuan in the 29th week and 205.4 billion yuan in the 30th week. In 2025, the planned issuance of new special bonds is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 2.4 trillion yuan, with a progress of 54.3%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 71.7 billion yuan have been issued, of which 25.22 billion yuan has been issued since July, accounting for 41% of new special bonds. The 80 - billion - yuan quota may be issued by the end of the third quarter. Land reserve special bonds of 25.58 billion yuan have been issued. As of July 6, the cumulative number of disclosed projects for acquiring idle land was 4,343 parcels, with a capital scale of 489.7 billion yuan [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bond - Special refinancing bond issuance was 0 billion yuan in the 29th week and 1.19 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 91% [2][32]. Urban Investment Bond - Urban investment bond net financing was - 1.24 billion yuan in the 29th week and is expected to be - 3.9 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.3 trillion yuan [2][34].
政府债发行追踪:2025年第29周
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 06:35
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 29th week of 2025, presenting data on the issuance and net financing of various types of bonds and their progress as of July 20, 2025 [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Bond Type 3.1 Special - Purpose Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special - purpose bonds was 161.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 97.4 billion yuan [4]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new special - purpose bonds was 54.3% [4]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new special - purpose bonds in July was 228.3 billion yuan [5]. 3.2 General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 27.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 13.1 billion yuan [7]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 61.8% [9]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in July was 42.1 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Local Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 152.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45.1 billion yuan [12]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 55.4% [12]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 58.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 135 billion yuan [17]. - As of July 20, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 57.1% [18]. 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 211.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 89.8 billion yuan [21]. - As of July 20, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local government bond issuance was 56.4% [21].
流动性月报:资金面利多大于利空-20250702
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-02 08:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In June, the capital market was loose with a slight downward shift in the capital center under the central bank's care. In July, the capital market may continue to be moderately loose due to favorable factors, but it may not loosen significantly [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Review: Central Bank's Care Leads to Slight Downward Shift in Capital Center - **Capital Market Looseness**: In June, the capital market remained loose, with most - term capital centers moving down. DR001, DR007, and DR014 operation centers decreased by 11bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively compared to May. DR001 mostly operated below the policy rate, and the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate "anti - seasonally" narrowed [2][12]. - **Central Bank's Warm Attitude**: The central bank showed a warm attitude. It conducted two outright reverse - repurchase operations in June with early announcements, net - injecting 2000 billion yuan. MLF continued to increase, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan in June. The central bank's total net - injected funds in June were the second - highest among the same periods since 2018 [16]. - **Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit (NCD)**: In June, the maturity scale of NCDs reached a record high, and the issuance scale was the second - highest in history. However, the NCD issuance rate, after rising in mid - to - late May, started to decline in June under the central bank's long - term capital injection. The R - DR spread seasonally widened [3][19][21]. 3.2 7 - Month Outlook: Capital Market May Continue to be Moderately Loose under Favorable Factors - **Historical Seasonal Pattern**: Historically, capital rates in July tend to decline seasonally. Since 2018, the capital market in July has been more relaxed than in June, mainly manifested by the narrowing of the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate [4][24]. - **Exchange Rate Factor**: The recent dissipation of RMB depreciation pressure and the exchange rate approaching 7.15 mean that the current exchange - rate environment no longer restricts the central bank's monetary easing [4]. - **Central Bank's Mention of "Preventing Capital Idling"**: Although the central bank mentioned "preventing capital idling" in the second - quarter monetary policy meeting, since 2024, when this statement was made, the capital rate did not rise significantly. The central bank's frequent mention of it in 2025 may not be directly related to a change in its attitude [5][31][32]. - **Liquidity Gap**: In July, the net financing pressure of government bonds will slightly increase by 80 billion yuan compared to June. The increase in government deposits may widen the liquidity gap. Considering the maturity of monetary tools, the liquidity gap will be 2.06 trillion yuan. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs, the estimated excess - reserve ratio in July is about 1.3%, slightly lower than in June [6][37][42].