Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 50th week of 2025, presenting the issuance, progress, and planned issuance of various types of bonds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 New Special Bonds - This week, new special bond issuance was 50.1 billion yuan, a 11 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 103.3% [1] - Next week, the planned issuance is 29.3 billion yuan [1] - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 89.1 billion yuan [1] 3.2 New General Bonds - This week, new general bond issuance was 21 billion yuan, a 9.6 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 95.5% [1] - Next week, the planned issuance is 6 billion yuan [1] - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 32.4 billion yuan [1] 3.3 Local Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 62.3 billion yuan, a 1.8 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 102.1% [1] - Next week, the planned net financing is 28.1 billion yuan [3] 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 238.1 billion yuan, a 271.9 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [14] - As of December 14, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 96.2% [6] - Next week, the planned net financing is - 147.3 billion yuan [14] 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 300.3 billion yuan, a 273.6 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [9] - As of December 14, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local government bond issuance was 98.8% [9] - Next week, the planned net financing is - 119.2 billion yuan [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - From November 24 - 28, 2025, the central bank had a net 7 - day reverse repurchase fund withdrawal, a treasury cash fixed - deposit injection of 12 billion yuan, and an MLF operation of 100 billion yuan. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net government bond payment scale decreased compared to the previous week, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) maturity yields rose slightly, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. On November 28, 2025, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased week - on - week by 0.55 years and 0.08 years respectively [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - In November 2025, the net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan. From November 24 - 28, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 16.42 billion yuan, treasury cash fixed - deposit injection was 12 billion yuan, and MLF had a net injection of 10 billion yuan. From December 1 - 5, 2025, 151.18 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In total, the net injection of outright reverse repurchases in November was 50 billion yuan, and the net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, with the combined net injection scale remaining stable month - on - month. In December, the maturity scales of 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases are 100 billion yuan and 40 billion yuan respectively, and 30 billion yuan of MLF will mature [6]. - The overall funds situation was loose. From November 24 - 28, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.31% and 1.39% respectively, down 11.7 and 10.1 basis points compared to November 17 - 21; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.46% and 1.53% respectively, down 3.5 basis points and up 1.0 basis point compared to November 17 - 21. On the 28th, the weighted average rate of DR001 was closer to 1.30% and broke through 1.30% intraday [7]. - The net government bond financing scale decreased. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net government bond payment scale was about 32.89 billion yuan, about 8.17 billion yuan less than November 17 - 23, including about 3.91 billion yuan of net treasury bond financing and about 28.98 billion yuan of net local government bond financing. From December 1 - 7, 2025, the expected net government bond payment scale is 8.66 billion yuan, including about - 5 billion yuan of net treasury bond financing and about 13.66 billion yuan of net local government bond financing [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - Most NCD maturity yields rose slightly. As of November 28, 2025, the 1M and 3M NCD maturity yields were 1.4450% and 1.5750% respectively, down 4.5 basis points and up 0.2 basis points compared to November 21; the 1Y NCD maturity yield was 1.6400%, up 0.5 basis points compared to November 21 [8]. - The net NCD financing amount remained negative. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net NCD financing amount was about - 24.25 billion yuan, compared to about - 37.4 billion yuan from November 17 - 23. From December 1 - 7, 2025, the expected NCD maturity repayment amount is 44.88 billion yuan, with a significantly reduced roll - over pressure compared to the previous week. The NCD maturity scale in December is about 3.7 trillion yuan, which is relatively high [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. From November 24 - 28, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.32%, compared to 107.15% from November 17 - 21. On November 28 and 21, the calculated leverage ratios were about 107.02% and 107.31% respectively [9]. - Based on the calculation results, the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased marginally. On November 28, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 3.68 years, down 0.55 years week - on - week, at the 60.3% quantile since early 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.56 years, down 0.08 years week - on - week, at the 23.2% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 18,649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 22,582.5 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][8][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][8][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure is partly due to the high base effect from the same period in 2024, where expenditure had increased significantly [3][13][80]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was at a historically low level, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has also contributed to the decline in expenditure growth [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - As new incremental funds are deployed, the support from fiscal and quasi-fiscal measures for the economy is expected to accelerate towards the end of the year [5][82]. - Two types of incremental funds have been established to address the weakening fiscal expenditure pressure in the fourth quarter: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The focus of these funds includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly supporting economically significant provinces [4][24][82]. Group 4: Revenue Trends - Broad fiscal revenue in October 2025 decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with government fund revenue dropping significantly by 18.4% [6][28][83]. - General fiscal revenue showed a slight increase of 3.2% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue saw a substantial decline of 33% [40][83]. - The completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in October was 9.3%, higher than 9% in 2024 and the five-year average of 8.8% [6][28][83].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure plummeted to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points compared to September[1] - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure is attributed to three main factors: high base effect from 2024, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a drop of 3.8 percentage points from September, with government fund revenue down by -18.4%[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[3] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and support for commercial banks, has been largely completed by mid-August[3] Future Outlook - With the implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and another 500 billion yuan in local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[4] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[4]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure reached 225,825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure dropped to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points from September[1] - The completion rate of the broad fiscal expenditure budget in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure was attributed to a high base effect from 2024, a drop in revenue, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a decline of 3.8 percentage points compared to September[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[12] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other projects, limited the available financing for October[12] Future Outlook - With the introduction of 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[18] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[14]

Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, growing by 2% [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure was partly due to the high base effect from the same month in 2024, where expenditure had surged by 20.4% year-on-year [3][13]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was significantly lower, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has been largely completed by mid-August, limiting the available resources for October [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - To address the weakening fiscal expenditure in the fourth quarter, two types of incremental funds have been introduced: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and another 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The implementation of these funds is expected to enhance the support for the economy towards the end of the year, potentially leading to a recovery in broad fiscal expenditure growth [5][82]. - The focus of the new policy financial instruments includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly aimed at supporting major economic provinces [4][24][82].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the cumulative social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5% at the end of October, while the broad money (M2) growth rate was 8.2%, both showing a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [1] - The structure of social financing is changing, with non-loan financing methods now accounting for over half of the total financing increment [3][4] Government Debt and Financing - Net financing from government bonds accounted for nearly 40% of the social financing increment, totaling 11.95 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.72 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - The total issuance of government bonds reached approximately 22 trillion yuan in the first ten months, nearly 4 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] - The government is leveraging increased bond issuance to support major projects and stimulate demand in the economy [3] Loan Structure and Trends - In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan, with a loan growth rate of 6.5% at the end of October [6] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.77 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector increased by 7.9% [6] - Loans related to new economic drivers have maintained a rapid growth rate, indicating a shift in credit structure towards high-quality development [6] Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The current monetary policy stance is supportive, aimed at promoting a reasonable recovery in prices [9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2% in October, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [9] - Experts suggest that while there is still room for monetary policy adjustments, the marginal efficiency has declined, and excessive easing could lead to negative effects [10]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the cumulative social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5% at the end of October, while the broad money (M2) growth rate was 8.2%, both showing a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [1] - Government bonds and special refinancing bonds have been issued rapidly this year, significantly supporting the growth of social financing [3] Social Financing Structure - Government bond net financing accounted for nearly 40% of the social financing increment, totaling 11.95 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.72 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - Other financing methods, excluding loans, now account for more than half of the social financing increment, indicating a shift in financing structure [3][4] - The reliance on RMB loans has weakened, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan in loans to the real economy [3] Loan Trends - RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan in the first ten months, with a loan growth rate of 6.5% at the end of October [6] - Inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector showed significant growth rates of 11.6% and 7.9%, respectively [6] - Loans related to new economic drivers have maintained a rapid growth rate, with technology SMEs, inclusive small and micro loans, and green loans growing by 22.3%, 12.2%, and 17.5% year-on-year, respectively [6] Monetary Policy - The current monetary policy stance is supportive, aimed at promoting a reasonable recovery in prices [1][9] - The October CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [9] - Experts indicate that while there is still room for monetary policy adjustments, the marginal efficiency has significantly declined, and excessive easing could lead to negative effects [10]

Local Government Bonds - The new transfer limit of 500 billion yuan for local government bonds has two main features: expanded funding usage and a total transfer amount that remains the same as last year at 500 billion yuan[1][12]. - In Q3 2025, local government bond issuance reached a peak of 30,430 billion yuan, but net financing decreased to 17,385 billion yuan due to a significant increase in maturing bonds[2][21]. - Despite the new 500 billion yuan transfer limit, the net financing pressure for local government bonds in Q4 is manageable, estimated at around 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 4,385 billion yuan from the previous quarter[2][25]. National Bonds - In Q3 2025, national bonds saw a record net issuance of 20,192 billion yuan, an increase of 1,766 billion yuan year-on-year, and 1,071 billion yuan from the previous quarter[3][32]. - The remaining net financing for national bonds in Q4 is projected at 12,600 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of about 1,712 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of approximately 7,592 billion yuan[3][38]. Policy Financial Bonds - The net issuance of policy financial bonds in Q3 2025 was 7,602 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to previous years, particularly in August when it reached 3,924 billion yuan[4][43]. - For Q4, the net financing scale of policy financial bonds may exceed seasonal norms, potentially reaching 6,800 billion yuan, which is an increase of about 1,704 billion yuan compared to the average from 2020 to 2024[6][48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 41st week of 2025, including the issuance and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds, as well as their issuance progress [4][8][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Special Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 16 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 20.1 billion [4]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.6%, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 0 billion [4][5]. New General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 9.9 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 0 billion [8]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0%, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 0 billion [8][10]. Local Bonds - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6% [13]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -24.6 billion, a decrease of 87.8 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -19.8 billion [14]. National Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was 184.4 billion, an increase of 184.4 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -38.4 billion [17]. - As of October 12, the net financing progress of national bonds was 83.4% [19]. Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 159.8 billion, an increase of 96.6 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -58.2 billion [21]. - As of October 12, the net financing of national bonds plus the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.5% [21].