Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 18,649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 22,582.5 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][8][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][8][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure is partly due to the high base effect from the same period in 2024, where expenditure had increased significantly [3][13][80]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was at a historically low level, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has also contributed to the decline in expenditure growth [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - As new incremental funds are deployed, the support from fiscal and quasi-fiscal measures for the economy is expected to accelerate towards the end of the year [5][82]. - Two types of incremental funds have been established to address the weakening fiscal expenditure pressure in the fourth quarter: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The focus of these funds includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly supporting economically significant provinces [4][24][82]. Group 4: Revenue Trends - Broad fiscal revenue in October 2025 decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with government fund revenue dropping significantly by 18.4% [6][28][83]. - General fiscal revenue showed a slight increase of 3.2% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue saw a substantial decline of 33% [40][83]. - The completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in October was 9.3%, higher than 9% in 2024 and the five-year average of 8.8% [6][28][83].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure plummeted to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points compared to September[1] - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure is attributed to three main factors: high base effect from 2024, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a drop of 3.8 percentage points from September, with government fund revenue down by -18.4%[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[3] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and support for commercial banks, has been largely completed by mid-August[3] Future Outlook - With the implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and another 500 billion yuan in local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[4] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[4]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure reached 225,825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure dropped to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points from September[1] - The completion rate of the broad fiscal expenditure budget in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure was attributed to a high base effect from 2024, a drop in revenue, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a decline of 3.8 percentage points compared to September[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[12] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other projects, limited the available financing for October[12] Future Outlook - With the introduction of 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[18] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[14]

Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, growing by 2% [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure was partly due to the high base effect from the same month in 2024, where expenditure had surged by 20.4% year-on-year [3][13]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was significantly lower, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has been largely completed by mid-August, limiting the available resources for October [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - To address the weakening fiscal expenditure in the fourth quarter, two types of incremental funds have been introduced: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and another 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The implementation of these funds is expected to enhance the support for the economy towards the end of the year, potentially leading to a recovery in broad fiscal expenditure growth [5][82]. - The focus of the new policy financial instruments includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly aimed at supporting major economic provinces [4][24][82].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the cumulative social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5% at the end of October, while the broad money (M2) growth rate was 8.2%, both showing a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [1] - The structure of social financing is changing, with non-loan financing methods now accounting for over half of the total financing increment [3][4] Government Debt and Financing - Net financing from government bonds accounted for nearly 40% of the social financing increment, totaling 11.95 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.72 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - The total issuance of government bonds reached approximately 22 trillion yuan in the first ten months, nearly 4 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] - The government is leveraging increased bond issuance to support major projects and stimulate demand in the economy [3] Loan Structure and Trends - In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan, with a loan growth rate of 6.5% at the end of October [6] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.77 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector increased by 7.9% [6] - Loans related to new economic drivers have maintained a rapid growth rate, indicating a shift in credit structure towards high-quality development [6] Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The current monetary policy stance is supportive, aimed at promoting a reasonable recovery in prices [9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2% in October, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [9] - Experts suggest that while there is still room for monetary policy adjustments, the marginal efficiency has declined, and excessive easing could lead to negative effects [10]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the cumulative social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5% at the end of October, while the broad money (M2) growth rate was 8.2%, both showing a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [1] - Government bonds and special refinancing bonds have been issued rapidly this year, significantly supporting the growth of social financing [3] Social Financing Structure - Government bond net financing accounted for nearly 40% of the social financing increment, totaling 11.95 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.72 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - Other financing methods, excluding loans, now account for more than half of the social financing increment, indicating a shift in financing structure [3][4] - The reliance on RMB loans has weakened, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan in loans to the real economy [3] Loan Trends - RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan in the first ten months, with a loan growth rate of 6.5% at the end of October [6] - Inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector showed significant growth rates of 11.6% and 7.9%, respectively [6] - Loans related to new economic drivers have maintained a rapid growth rate, with technology SMEs, inclusive small and micro loans, and green loans growing by 22.3%, 12.2%, and 17.5% year-on-year, respectively [6] Monetary Policy - The current monetary policy stance is supportive, aimed at promoting a reasonable recovery in prices [1][9] - The October CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [9] - Experts indicate that while there is still room for monetary policy adjustments, the marginal efficiency has significantly declined, and excessive easing could lead to negative effects [10]

Local Government Bonds - The new transfer limit of 500 billion yuan for local government bonds has two main features: expanded funding usage and a total transfer amount that remains the same as last year at 500 billion yuan[1][12]. - In Q3 2025, local government bond issuance reached a peak of 30,430 billion yuan, but net financing decreased to 17,385 billion yuan due to a significant increase in maturing bonds[2][21]. - Despite the new 500 billion yuan transfer limit, the net financing pressure for local government bonds in Q4 is manageable, estimated at around 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 4,385 billion yuan from the previous quarter[2][25]. National Bonds - In Q3 2025, national bonds saw a record net issuance of 20,192 billion yuan, an increase of 1,766 billion yuan year-on-year, and 1,071 billion yuan from the previous quarter[3][32]. - The remaining net financing for national bonds in Q4 is projected at 12,600 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of about 1,712 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of approximately 7,592 billion yuan[3][38]. Policy Financial Bonds - The net issuance of policy financial bonds in Q3 2025 was 7,602 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to previous years, particularly in August when it reached 3,924 billion yuan[4][43]. - For Q4, the net financing scale of policy financial bonds may exceed seasonal norms, potentially reaching 6,800 billion yuan, which is an increase of about 1,704 billion yuan compared to the average from 2020 to 2024[6][48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 41st week of 2025, including the issuance and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds, as well as their issuance progress [4][8][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Special Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 16 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 20.1 billion [4]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.6%, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 0 billion [4][5]. New General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 9.9 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 0 billion [8]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0%, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 0 billion [8][10]. Local Bonds - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6% [13]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -24.6 billion, a decrease of 87.8 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -19.8 billion [14]. National Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was 184.4 billion, an increase of 184.4 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -38.4 billion [17]. - As of October 12, the net financing progress of national bonds was 83.4% [19]. Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 159.8 billion, an increase of 96.6 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -58.2 billion [21]. - As of October 12, the net financing of national bonds plus the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.5% [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents data on government bond net financing, including the net financing amounts of government bonds, national bonds, local bonds, etc. in the 38th week (9/15 - 9/21) and the 39th week (9/22 - 9/28), as well as their cumulative amounts and progress compared to the previous year [1][6]. - As of September 24, the planned issuance of local bonds in the fourth quarter is 730 billion yuan, including 40 billion yuan of new general bonds and 390 billion yuan of new special bonds. The remaining quotas for new general bonds and special bonds are 140 billion yuan and 740 billion yuan respectively [2][9]. - The issuance progress of special refinancing bonds is 99%, and the net financing of urban investment bonds is expected to be -7 billion yuan in the 39th week, with a balance of 10.2 trillion yuan as of this week [3][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Government Bond Net Financing - In the 38th week (9/15 - 9/21), the net financing of government bonds was 317.9 billion yuan, and in the 39th week (9/22 - 9/28), it was -22 billion yuan. As of the 38th week, the cumulative amount was 11.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 5.1 trillion yuan [1][6]. - The net financing of national bonds + new local bond issuance in the 38th week was 405.6 billion yuan, and in the 39th week, it was 10.8 billion yuan. As of the 38th week, the cumulative generalized deficit was 9.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 81.9% [1][6]. National Bonds - The net financing of national bonds in the 38th week was 287.1 billion yuan, and in the 39th week, it was -144.4 billion yuan. The annual net financing of national bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 38th week, the cumulative amount was 5.5 trillion yuan, with a progress of 83.2% [1][7]. Local Bonds - The net financing of local bonds in the 38th week was 30.9 billion yuan, and in the 39th week, it was 122.5 billion yuan. As of the 38th week, the cumulative amount was 6.0 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.7 trillion yuan [1][9]. - As of September 24, the planned issuance of local bonds in the fourth quarter is 730 billion yuan, including 40 billion yuan of new general bonds and 390 billion yuan of new special bonds. The remaining quotas for new general bonds and special bonds are 140 billion yuan and 740 billion yuan respectively [2][9]. New General Bonds - In the 38th week, the issuance of new general bonds was 20.7 billion yuan, and in the 39th week, it was 5.6 billion yuan. As of the 38th week, the cumulative amount was 656.2 billion yuan, with a progress of 82.0%, exceeding the same period last year [2][11]. New Special Bonds - In the 38th week, the issuance of new special bonds was 97.8 billion yuan, and in the 39th week, it was 149.6 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new special bonds in 2025 is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 38th week, the cumulative amount was 3.5 trillion yuan, with a progress of 79.8%, exceeding the same period last year [14]. - The special new special bonds issued reached 1201.2 billion yuan, of which 233.3 billion yuan was issued since September. The land reserve special bonds issued were 346.6 billion yuan. As of September 23, 27 provincial - level administrative regions had announced relevant projects, covering 4992 parcels of land, with a capital scale of 553.7 billion yuan [2][14]. Special Refinancing Bonds - In the 38th week, the issuance of special refinancing bonds was 21.4 billion yuan, and in the 39th week, it was 11.4 billion yuan. As of the 38th week, the cumulative amount was 1.98 trillion yuan, with a issuance progress of 99% [3][27]. Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 38th week was 15.5 billion yuan, and it is expected to be -7 billion yuan in the 39th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was 10.2 trillion yuan [3][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank maintains a relatively loose stance within the existing framework, as indicated by the OMO's resumption of large - scale operations after DR001 rose above 1.4%, the increase in banks' rigid net lending to over 4 trillion yuan, and the 300 - billion - yuan over - renewal of the 6 - month outright reverse repurchase [3][19]. - There is no need to over - worry about the so - called "deposit relocation" caused by the rise of the A - share market. The increase in M1 in August was affected by the base effect, and the reason for the increase in non - bank deposits is difficult to determine from the data [21]. - The statement of "advancing the issuance of part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and using debt - resolution quotas earlier" does not necessarily mean that the 2 - trillion - yuan replacement bonds in 2026 will be issued ahead of schedule in Q4 [3][40]. - Without new quotas, the average monthly net financing scale of government bonds in Q4 is estimated to be about 633.5 billion yuan, lower than the average of the first three quarters. Unless there is a significant decline in fiscal deposits in September, the early issuance of Q4 replacement bonds is not the baseline expectation. Even if they are issued early, the impact on liquidity is controllable [4][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Fundamentals Review - The central bank's OMO had a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan this week, and announced a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation next Monday, with a monthly net injection of 300 billion yuan. Affected by government bond payments and the previous OMO net withdrawal, funds tightened in the first half of the week, with DR001 rising to 1.43%. After Wednesday, as the central bank's reverse repurchase shifted to net injection, the funds loosened marginally, and DR001 fell back below 1.4% [3][7]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased from the high level in the second half of last week, but the average daily trading volume increased by 1.8 trillion yuan to 73.9 trillion yuan. The overall scale of pledged repurchase decreased in the first half of the week and then increased in the second half, still slightly lower than last Friday. In terms of institutions, the net lending of large - scale banks decreased continuously in the first half of the week and recovered after Thursday, the net lending of city - commercial banks fluctuated slightly, and the net lending of joint - stock banks increased. The overall rigid net lending of banks decreased in the first half of the week and then fluctuated and recovered in the second half, rising back above 4 trillion yuan. The non - bank rigid lending increased, mainly due to the large increase in money - market fund lending, while the lending of wealth - management products decreased slightly. The non - bank rigid borrowing decreased, mainly due to the decrease in fund borrowing, while the borrowing of insurance and other products increased. The fund gap index first rose and then fell, rising to - 318 billion on Wednesday and then falling to - 539.9 billion on Friday, still higher than - 621.3 billion last Friday [3][17]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Fund Outlook - The estimated scale of treasury bond payments next week is 392 billion yuan. As of this week, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 is 635.5 billion yuan, new special bonds is 3.4138 trillion yuan, ordinary refinancing bonds is 2.0641 trillion yuan, and special refinancing bonds is 1.9629 trillion yuan. The issuance scale of local bonds in 10 regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Xinjiang next week is 188.5 billion yuan, including 20.7 billion yuan of new general bonds, 97.8 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 70 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, with an actual payment scale of 190.2 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will rise from 344.2 billion yuan this week to 402.5 billion yuan [22]. - Next week, funds will face multiple disturbing factors, with greater pressure in the first half of the week. However, the funds injected through outright repurchase will provide some hedging. Considering that the central bank's relatively loose stance within the existing framework remains unchanged, the probability of significant fluctuations in subsequent fund prices is relatively limited, and DR001 may not remain above 1.4% [4]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1 - year Shibor rate rose 0.7 BP to 1.67%, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.5 BP to 1.67%. The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, but the maturity scale increased more, resulting in a net repayment of 424.1 billion yuan. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 135.6 billion yuan, - 98.3 billion yuan, - 159.8 billion yuan, and - 23.6 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit rose to 15%, and the issuance proportion of 3 - month certificates of deposit was the highest at 34%. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 894.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 315.7 billion yuan compared with this week [4][45][49]. - The issuance success rates of certificates of deposit of various banks decreased compared with last week. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of state - owned banks, the others were around the average level in recent years. The issuance spread between 1 - year certificates of deposit of city - commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [50]. - This week, the relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit fluctuated and increased. The willingness of money - market funds to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit significantly increased after Thursday, the overall demand of wealth - management products for certificates of deposit increased slightly, the demand of non - money funds and other products for certificates of deposit decreased in the middle of the week and then recovered on Friday, and joint - stock banks continuously reduced their holdings after Tuesday. The supply - demand index of certificates of deposit continuously increased after Monday, rising to 36.4% on Friday, a 4.8 - percentage - point increase compared with September 5. In terms of different maturities, the supply - demand indexes of 1 - month and 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased, while those of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month varieties increased [59]. 3.3 Bill Market This week, bill rates showed a divergent trend. The 3 - month national bill rate decreased by 3 BP to 1.15% month - on - month, while the 6 - month national bill rate increased by 6 BP to 0.79% [64]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, the bond market performed weakly, the yield curve steepened and rose, and the spread of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds widened [66]. - Large - scale banks' willingness to increase their bond holdings increased significantly, mainly showing an inclination to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit and long - term treasury bonds, and a significant increase in the willingness to increase their holdings of medium - and short - term treasury bonds and long - term policy - bank bonds, but an inclination to reduce their holdings of ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 5 - 7 - year policy - bank bonds. Trading - oriented institutions shifted to a tendency to reduce their bond holdings. Among them, fund companies tended to reduce their holdings, securities companies' willingness to reduce their holdings increased, other products' willingness to increase their holdings decreased, and other institutions' willingness to increase their holdings increased slightly. All allocation - oriented institutions' willingness to increase their bond holdings increased significantly [66].