Government Debt Financing - Net financing for government debt in week 31 (July 28 - August 3) was 402.8 billion, and in week 32 (August 4 - August 10) it was 397.4 billion, totaling 9.2 trillion, exceeding last year's 5 trillion[1] - The cumulative general deficit reached 7.3 trillion, with a progress rate of 61.7%[5] - Net financing for treasury bonds in week 31 was 160.2 billion, and in week 32 it was 314.6 billion, totaling 4.0 trillion, with a progress rate of 60.1%[7] Local Government Debt - Net financing for local government debt in week 31 was 242.5 billion, and in week 32 it was 82.8 billion, totaling 5.2 trillion, exceeding last year's 3.1 trillion[9] - New general bonds issued in week 31 were 20.9 billion, and in week 32 they were 7.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 538.3 billion and a progress rate of 67.3%[9] Special Bonds - New special bonds in week 31 amounted to 183.2 billion, and in week 32 they were 40.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion and a progress rate of 63.1%[13] - Special new bonds issued reached 806 billion, surpassing the initial target of 800 billion, with 509 billion issued since August, accounting for 98% of new special bonds[13] Risk and Warnings - There is a risk of data statistical errors, with actual issuance potentially differing significantly from planned figures[3]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's attitude towards the funding environment remains unchanged, indicating that there is no basis for tightening the funding situation in August [1] Group 1: Funding Situation - It is expected that the net financing of government bonds in August will be between 1.17 trillion and 1.39 trillion yuan, which is close to July's figures [1] - Starting in August, the maturity and operation timing of the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) will align, both occurring on the 25th of each month [1] - The combined maturity of MLF and reverse repos in August is 1.2 trillion yuan, which is lower than July's 1.5 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Since May, the combined net injection from MLF and reverse repos has been positive, suggesting that there is no need for excessive concern regarding the funding environment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - The core view includes basic economic data such as the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment at 2.80, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the current month at 4.80, the year - on - year growth rate of exports in the current month at 5.90, and M2 at 8.30 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 208.6 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20) and 303.6 billion yuan in the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27). As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 8.4 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.5 trillion yuan, mainly due to the misalignment of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and the rapid issuance of treasury bonds [1][7]. - The sum of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 247.2 billion yuan in the 29th week and 239.4 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative general deficit was 6.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 56.6% [1][7]. Treasury Bond Net Financing - Treasury bond net financing was 5.82 billion yuan in the 29th week and 1.07 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 3.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 57.5%, exceeding the same period in the past five years. The total annual treasury bond net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan. In 2025, the central deficit is 4.86 trillion yuan, with 1.8 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds arranged: 1.3 trillion yuan is ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (300 billion yuan for consumer goods trade - in), and 500 billion yuan is for supplementing the capital of state - owned large - scale banks [1][8]. Local Bond Net Financing - Local bond net financing was 150.5 billion yuan in the 29th week and 292.9 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 4.6 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.8 trillion yuan [1][10]. New General Bond - New general bond issuance was 2.76 billion yuan in the 29th week and 2.33 billion yuan in the 30th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 49.41 billion yuan, with a progress of 61.8%, exceeding the same period last year [2][11][13]. New Special Bond - New special bond issuance was 161.4 billion yuan in the 29th week and 205.4 billion yuan in the 30th week. In 2025, the planned issuance of new special bonds is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 2.4 trillion yuan, with a progress of 54.3%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 71.7 billion yuan have been issued, of which 25.22 billion yuan has been issued since July, accounting for 41% of new special bonds. The 80 - billion - yuan quota may be issued by the end of the third quarter. Land reserve special bonds of 25.58 billion yuan have been issued. As of July 6, the cumulative number of disclosed projects for acquiring idle land was 4,343 parcels, with a capital scale of 489.7 billion yuan [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bond - Special refinancing bond issuance was 0 billion yuan in the 29th week and 1.19 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 91% [2][32]. Urban Investment Bond - Urban investment bond net financing was - 1.24 billion yuan in the 29th week and is expected to be - 3.9 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.3 trillion yuan [2][34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 29th week of 2025, presenting data on the issuance and net financing of various types of bonds and their progress as of July 20, 2025 [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Bond Type 3.1 Special - Purpose Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special - purpose bonds was 161.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 97.4 billion yuan [4]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new special - purpose bonds was 54.3% [4]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new special - purpose bonds in July was 228.3 billion yuan [5]. 3.2 General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 27.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 13.1 billion yuan [7]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 61.8% [9]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in July was 42.1 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Local Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 152.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45.1 billion yuan [12]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 55.4% [12]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 58.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 135 billion yuan [17]. - As of July 20, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 57.1% [18]. 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 211.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 89.8 billion yuan [21]. - As of July 20, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local government bond issuance was 56.4% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In June, the capital market was loose with a slight downward shift in the capital center under the central bank's care. In July, the capital market may continue to be moderately loose due to favorable factors, but it may not loosen significantly [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Review: Central Bank's Care Leads to Slight Downward Shift in Capital Center - **Capital Market Looseness**: In June, the capital market remained loose, with most - term capital centers moving down. DR001, DR007, and DR014 operation centers decreased by 11bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively compared to May. DR001 mostly operated below the policy rate, and the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate "anti - seasonally" narrowed [2][12]. - **Central Bank's Warm Attitude**: The central bank showed a warm attitude. It conducted two outright reverse - repurchase operations in June with early announcements, net - injecting 2000 billion yuan. MLF continued to increase, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan in June. The central bank's total net - injected funds in June were the second - highest among the same periods since 2018 [16]. - **Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit (NCD)**: In June, the maturity scale of NCDs reached a record high, and the issuance scale was the second - highest in history. However, the NCD issuance rate, after rising in mid - to - late May, started to decline in June under the central bank's long - term capital injection. The R - DR spread seasonally widened [3][19][21]. 3.2 7 - Month Outlook: Capital Market May Continue to be Moderately Loose under Favorable Factors - **Historical Seasonal Pattern**: Historically, capital rates in July tend to decline seasonally. Since 2018, the capital market in July has been more relaxed than in June, mainly manifested by the narrowing of the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate [4][24]. - **Exchange Rate Factor**: The recent dissipation of RMB depreciation pressure and the exchange rate approaching 7.15 mean that the current exchange - rate environment no longer restricts the central bank's monetary easing [4]. - **Central Bank's Mention of "Preventing Capital Idling"**: Although the central bank mentioned "preventing capital idling" in the second - quarter monetary policy meeting, since 2024, when this statement was made, the capital rate did not rise significantly. The central bank's frequent mention of it in 2025 may not be directly related to a change in its attitude [5][31][32]. - **Liquidity Gap**: In July, the net financing pressure of government bonds will slightly increase by 80 billion yuan compared to June. The increase in government deposits may widen the liquidity gap. Considering the maturity of monetary tools, the liquidity gap will be 2.06 trillion yuan. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs, the estimated excess - reserve ratio in July is about 1.3%, slightly lower than in June [6][37][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the central bank net - injected funds, and the capital interest rates generally declined; the net financing scale of government bonds decreased; the net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, and the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit slightly increased; the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market remained stable at a relatively low level, and the net lending scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks slightly increased. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 12.11 billion yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Net Investment**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase investment was 88.2 billion yuan, and the repurchase was 80.8 billion yuan. The treasury fixed - deposit investment was 10 billion yuan, and the 1 - year medium - term lending facility (MLF) investment was 60 billion yuan, with a total net investment of 77.4 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 2025, 50.45 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will expire [6]. - **Capital Interest Rates**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 2.0 basis points compared with April 14 - April 18, 2025; the average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 1.8 basis points and 1.2 basis points respectively. On April 25, with the 60 - billion - yuan MLF investment, the overnight capital interest rates DR001 and R001 both dropped below 1.60% [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the net repayment of government bonds was about 8.01 billion yuan, 87.8 billion yuan more than that from April 14 to April 20, 2025. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be about 12.11 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of April 25, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit increased by 1 basis point compared with April 18, 2025, while the 3M yield was basically flat [9]. - **Net Financing**: From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about 18.76 billion yuan, compared with a net repayment of about 0.42 billion yuan from April 14 to April 20, 2025. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the maturity repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to be 33.53 billion yuan, lower than this week's 79.06 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.19%, basically the same as that from April 14 to April 18, 2025 [10]. - **Net Lending Scale**: On April 25, 2025, the net lending funds of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks were about 2.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 53.3% of the total net lending. On April 18, 2025, the net lending scale was about 2.88 trillion yuan, accounting for 52.4% [10].