Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently facing significant challenges, but there is potential for recovery and growth in the next five years, particularly driven by advancements in solid-state battery technology [1] Supply Expansion and Market Dynamics - Indonesia has become the dominant player in the global nickel industry, with its nickel ore resources primarily consisting of high-grade laterite nickel, accounting for over 60% of global nickel production by 2024 [2][4] - From 2015 to 2022, Indonesia's nickel production increased from 130,000 tons to 1.6 million tons, representing a 144% share of the global increase in nickel production during that period [2] - The recent increase in nickel prices has led to a situation where prices are nearing or below production costs, prompting a market correction [4] Demand Side and Battery Technology - The shift from ternary lithium batteries to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries has reduced the demand for nickel, as LFP batteries do not require nickel [5][7] - Solid-state batteries, expected to be commercially available between 2027 and 2030, could significantly increase nickel demand due to their higher energy density and longer lifespan [9] - The anticipated demand for nickel in solid-state batteries could lead to a substantial increase in overall nickel consumption, with projections indicating a potential shortage by 2030 [10] Industry Outlook and Opportunities - Chinese companies have established a strong presence in the nickel supply chain, positioning themselves to benefit from future market shifts [10][11] - Companies like Grinm and others are expanding their production capabilities, with Grinm expected to increase its nickel output from 51,600 tons in 2024 to over 216,000 tons by 2027 [11] - The current market challenges may serve as a foundation for future growth, as companies that endure the downturn could emerge stronger in the next cycle [11]