Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 19.5 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49%, driven by its diversified business model focusing on high-end residential development and quality IP leasing [1] Business Segments Property Development - The company achieved sales of HKD 16.2 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 130%, with mainland China and Hong Kong contributing 66% and 34% respectively [3] - In mainland China, the company is focusing on the Shanghai market, with the Jinling Huating project being a key driver, achieving sales of HKD 10.6 billion in the first half of 2025 [3] - In Hong Kong, sales were HKD 5.5 billion in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5%, primarily relying on the luxury project Tiwai [3] IP and Hotel Operations - The company's IP value reached HKD 86.3 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with mainland China and Hong Kong accounting for 67% and 33% respectively [2] - Total IP and hotel area is 21.33 million square feet, with a projected increase of 36% by 2031, and a 7-year CAGR growth rate of 7% [2] - Rental income from IP decreased by 5.5% to HKD 2.502 billion, while hotel rental income fell by 3.3% to HKD 1.03 billion, attributed to a low market sentiment [2] Financial Performance and Dividends - The company maintains a robust financial position with total borrowings of HKD 59.6 billion, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and a net debt ratio of 38.4% [4] - The company has consistently paid a dividend of HKD 1.35 since 2017, resulting in a high dividend yield of 6.9% [4] - Projected net profit for 2025-2027 is HKD 1.75 billion, HKD 1.62 billion, and HKD 4.03 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 116%, -7%, and 149% [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a high-end residential developer with a focus on premium commercial assets, anticipating a revaluation of its quality IP [6][7]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of HKD 19.5 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49% [6]. - The financial outlook includes a forecasted net profit of HKD 1.75 billion in 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 116% [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: HKD 13.09 billion - 2024: HKD 19.5 billion - 2025E: HKD 20.17 billion - 2026E: HKD 15.08 billion - 2027E: HKD 24.44 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at -10.3% for 2023, 49.0% for 2024, and 3.5% for 2025 [5]. - The net profit forecast is as follows: - 2023: HKD 3.24 billion - 2024: HKD 0.81 billion - 2025: HKD 1.75 billion - 2026: HKD 1.62 billion - 2027: HKD 4.03 billion - The projected net profit growth rates are 17.7% for 2023, 75.1% for 2024, and 116.1% for 2025 [5][6]. Business Structure - The company operates a diversified business model with revenue contributions from property development (66%), IP leasing (25%), and hotel operations (9%) [6][27]. - The geographical revenue distribution shows a focus on mainland China (66%) and Hong Kong (34%) [6][27]. Property Development - The company achieved a sales amount of HKD 16.2 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 130%, with mainland sales contributing HKD 10.6 billion [6][42]. - The company is focusing on high-end residential projects, particularly in Shanghai and Hong Kong, with significant sales from the Jinling Huating project [6][45]. IP and Hotel Operations - The company’s IP value reached HKD 86.3 billion in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 14% [6]. - The total area of IP and hotel operations is projected to increase by 36% by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% [6][7]. Financial Health and Dividends - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a net debt ratio of 38.4% as of the first half of 2025, expected to decrease to around 30% by the end of 2026 [6]. - The company has consistently provided dividends, with a dividend per share (DPS) of HKD 1.35 since 2017, resulting in a high dividend yield of 6.9% [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent purchase by Guo Konghua, the chairman of Kerry Properties, of a luxury apartment in Shanghai has stirred significant interest in the high-end real estate market, highlighting the strategic moves of developers in a tightening market [1][3][12]. Summary by Sections Transaction Details - Guo Konghua acquired a four-bedroom unit in the Shanghai Jinling Huating project for RMB 117 million (approximately HKD 127.7 million), with a construction area of about 449 square meters [1][3]. - The transaction price per square meter was approximately RMB 260,300, surpassing the registered price of RMB 206,000 for other units in the same project [3][4]. Project Insights - The Jinling Huating project has recently received pre-sale permits for 40 units, with an average price of RMB 206,000 per square meter [3][5]. - The project is expected to generate a net profit of approximately RMB 23 million for Kerry Properties, indicating a profit margin of about 19.66% [7][8]. Market Context - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai is experiencing a supply contraction, with a reported 2,624 units priced above RMB 30 million available from January to October 2023, a decrease of over 50% year-on-year [19][20]. - The high-end market is entering a "stock game" phase due to the anticipated continued reduction in land supply within the inner ring of Shanghai [21]. Strategic Implications - Guo Konghua's purchase is seen as a signal of confidence in the future development of Kerry Properties' projects, serving as a form of "free publicity" for the Jinling Huating project [12][13]. - The trend of developers purchasing their own luxury units is becoming more common, reflecting a strategic approach to managing inventory and capitalizing on asset appreciation [19][22].