来源：市场资讯 （来源：LADYMAX） 中国消费者在全球消费的LVMH产品仍然为个位数负增长 作者 | Drizzie 奢侈品迎来难得一见的乐观情绪。 LVMH今年以来股价走势 作为奢侈品行业的风向标，LVMH的表现对市场具有强烈示范效应，自2023年第三季度LVMH业绩转冷 以来，奢侈品行业经历了长时间低迷。 由于奢侈品市场在糟糕的第二季度业绩后缺乏明确改善信号，LVMH在发布第三季度业绩之前，市场并 未形成乐观预期，该上市公司也未向资本市场进行相关沟通，使得这份有机收入增长1%的季度业绩给 市场带来了远超预期的巨大震撼。 在此次业绩发布前，摩根士丹利和伯恩斯坦发布报告，均暗示最糟糕的时候可能已经过去，LVMH仍是 新奢侈品消费者的首选入口，也是投资者观察行业复苏的第一窗口。 全球最大奢侈品集团LVMH昨日发布第三季度财报，收入同比下跌4%至182亿欧元，有机增长1%，显 著超过分析师预期，成为今年以来首个实现销售反弹的季度。 资本市场将其作为LVMH重返正增长轨道、奢侈品市场回暖的转折信号，推动LVMH昨日股价大涨 12%，市值突破3000亿欧元，重返法国最高市值企业。 据时尚商业快讯监测，该集团也带动 ...

Core Viewpoint - LVMH reported a surprising 1% organic revenue growth in Q3, reaching €18.28 billion, ending two consecutive quarters of decline and exceeding analyst expectations of zero growth [3][4] Financial Performance - Q3 organic revenue grew by 1% to €18.28 billion, surpassing analyst expectations; revenue for the first nine months was €58.1 billion, down 4% year-on-year [3][4] - The fashion and leather goods segment saw a 2% decline in Q3, better than the anticipated 3.48% drop; perfumes and cosmetics grew by 2%, while selective retailing, including Sephora, experienced a strong 7% growth [3][4][6] Regional Performance - Asia (including China) grew by 2% in Q3, contrasting with a 9% decline in the first half; the U.S. market grew by 3%, while Japan saw a significant 13% decline, and Europe dropped by 2% due to currency effects [4][12] - The strong performance of LVMH's stock led to a rise in the luxury goods sector, with Kering and Richemont shares also increasing [4][9] Structural Challenges in Core Business - The fashion and leather goods segment, which includes brands like Louis Vuitton and Dior, is crucial, contributing over two-thirds of the group's profits [5] - This segment's revenue was €8.5 billion in Q3, down 2% year-on-year, while the first nine months saw an 8% decline from €29.92 billion to €27.61 billion [6][7] Performance in Other Business Segments - The selective retailing segment achieved a 7% organic growth to €3.99 billion, primarily driven by strong performance from Sephora [7] - The wine and spirits segment unexpectedly grew by 1%, benefiting from U.S. market restocking of champagne and rosé wine, reversing the expected 3% decline [7] China Market Insights - The performance in China was a key highlight, with a 2% growth in Q3, contrasting sharply with the earlier 9% decline; the CFO noted encouraging demand despite macroeconomic challenges [8] - The sustainability of this recovery in China amidst uncertain macroeconomic conditions is critical for the luxury goods sector [8] Market Outlook and Challenges - Despite the positive Q3 results, caution is advised as the CFO indicated that the Q4 comparison will be more challenging, while 2026 may present easier comparisons [11] - Ongoing macroeconomic pressures, including a strong euro impacting revenue, and structural adjustments in the luxury sector due to changing consumer behavior and geopolitical uncertainties remain significant challenges [11][12]

Core Insights - LVMH reported a surprising 1% organic revenue growth in Q3, reaching €18.28 billion, ending two consecutive quarters of decline and exceeding analyst expectations of zero growth [1][4] - Following the positive earnings report, LVMH's stock surged over 8%, positively impacting other luxury brands like Kering and Richemont [1] Financial Performance - Q3 organic revenue growth of 1% to €18.28 billion, ending two quarters of decline, with a 9-month revenue of €58.1 billion, down 4% year-on-year [4] - Fashion and leather goods segment saw a 2% decline in Q3, better than the expected 4% drop, while perfumes and cosmetics grew by 2% and specialty retail (including Sephora) grew by 7% [4] - The wine and spirits segment unexpectedly grew by 1%, reversing a forecasted 3% decline, driven by champagne restocking in the U.S. [5] Regional Performance - Asia (excluding Japan) grew by 2% in Q3, contrasting with a 9% decline in the first half of the year, indicating a potential recovery in the Chinese market [5] - The U.S. market showed a solid 3% growth, while Europe declined by 2% due to currency fluctuations and reduced tourist spending [7] - Japan experienced a significant 13% decline, attributed to a high comparative base from the previous year when a weak yen attracted tourists [7] Structural Challenges - The fashion and leather goods segment, which contributes over two-thirds of LVMH's profits, reported a revenue drop of 8% in the first nine months of the year [3] - LVMH is undergoing a major creative overhaul with new creative directors appointed across several brands, but the long-term commercial success of these changes remains uncertain [3][6] - Despite the Q3 growth, LVMH's CFO cautioned that the fourth quarter will present more challenging comparisons, indicating potential volatility in future performance [5][6]

Core Insights - LVMH reported a total revenue of €39.81 billion (approximately ¥335.12 billion) for the first half of 2025, a decline of 4% year-on-year, with operating profit down 15% to €9.01 billion (approximately ¥75.84 billion) [1][5][10] - The luxury goods sector is facing significant challenges, with the "Veblen Effect" losing its influence as younger consumers reassess the value of luxury items [3][4] - The high-end beauty segment has emerged as a key area of focus for LVMH, showing resilience with stable revenue of €4.08 billion (approximately ¥34.34 billion) in the first half of 2025 [12][13] Financial Performance - LVMH's total revenue for the first half of 2025 was €39.81 billion, down 4% from the previous year, while operating profit decreased by 15% to €9.01 billion [1][5][10] - The operating margin fell to 22.6%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The Asian market (excluding Japan) saw its share decline to 28%, down 2 percentage points [1][10] Market Trends - The luxury goods market is experiencing a shift, with younger consumers increasingly questioning the traditional pricing logic of luxury items [4][5] - The beauty segment, particularly high-end cosmetics, is viewed as a potential growth driver amidst overall market contraction [12][19] - LVMH's beauty brands, including Christian Dior and Fenty Beauty, are adapting to changing consumer preferences, with Fenty Beauty showing significant growth in China [15][19] Strategic Initiatives - LVMH is focusing on brand revitalization and innovation in the beauty sector, with new product launches and a commitment to quality and desirability [17][18] - The company is restructuring its operations, including closing underperforming DFS stores and laying off staff in its wine and spirits division to reallocate resources towards beauty [21][23] - Sephora is being positioned as a key player in the Chinese market, with new brand introductions and a direct reporting structure to the global CEO [21][23]

Core Insights - LVMH is facing its most severe industry downturn in 36 years under the leadership of Bernard Arnault, with significant challenges impacting its luxury brand empire [2][3][5] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The personal luxury goods market, valued at €364 billion, is rapidly declining, revealing vulnerabilities in LVMH compared to more resilient competitors like Hermès [3][5] - The crisis is exacerbated by LVMH's past acquisition spree, which has led to management complexities and investor concerns regarding succession planning [4][11] Group 2: Financial Performance - LVMH's stock price has nearly halved since its peak in April 2023, resulting in a market value loss of approximately €221 billion [5] - The company has lost its title as France's most valuable company to Hermès, highlighting the shift in market dynamics [5] Group 3: Brand Performance - The wine and spirits division, particularly Moët Hennessy, is experiencing significant challenges, including a CEO dismissal and declining sales, leading to layoffs [16][26] - Dior, LVMH's second-largest fashion brand, has seen a decline in growth, prompting a leadership change to revitalize its performance [20][22] Group 4: Strategic Moves - LVMH has begun divesting underperforming brands, such as Off-White and Stella McCartney, and is expected to continue evaluating its assets, particularly in the wine and spirits sector [15][25] - The company is exploring potential restructuring and strategic realignment to address the current market challenges [10][14] Group 5: Succession Planning - Bernard Arnault's family holds significant control over LVMH, with a focus on ensuring the family's continued influence in the company's future [19][30] - The lack of a clear succession plan raises concerns among investors, despite the establishment of a mid-term succession strategy [36][37]