2026年伊始，外资机构对中国资产的配置热情持续升温。 | 开始日期: | 2026-01-01 | T | 截止日期: | 2026-01-09 T | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 陸号 | 代码 | 7 名称 | | 17 ↓交易日期 | 了 持有人 | 7 持有权益类型 | 7 增减持方向 | 7 | | 1 | 0788.HK | 中国铁塔 | | 2026-01-05 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | | 増持 | | | 2 | 0874.HK | 日本山 | | 2026-01-05 | LSV Asset Management | | 壇持 | | | 3 | 0241.HK | 阿里健康 | | 2026-01-05 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | | 増持 | | | 4 | 3750.HK | 宁德时代 | | 2026-01-02 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | | 壇持 | | | 5 | 2202.HK | 万科企业 | | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets have shown a strong rebound, with significant gains in various indices and stocks, indicating renewed interest from global investors in the Chinese market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.29%, and the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF surged over 4%, reversing a week-long decline [1][2]. - Popular Chinese concept stocks experienced substantial increases, with Dingdong Maicai rising over 10% and Baidu increasing nearly 6% [1][2]. - Multiple foreign institutions have released optimistic reports on Chinese assets, with Morgan Stanley redefining the Chinese stock market as a "growth market" [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley set a target for the CSI 300 Index at 4840 points by December 2026, suggesting a forward P/E ratio for the MSCI China Index in the range of 12 to 13 times [2]. - JPMorgan's Rajiv Batra noted that the Chinese stock market is in the early stages of recovery, with attractive valuations and relatively low holding levels [2][3]. - Various institutions, including OECD and Goldman Sachs, have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its 2025 forecast from 4.9% to 5.0% [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations - The U.S. core PCE price index for September rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and reinforcing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 87.2%, with expectations for further cuts in early 2026 [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street investment institutions have significantly increased their allocation to Chinese assets, particularly in the technology sector, as indicated by the latest 13F filings from the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Investment Trends - In Q3, major financial institutions such as Bank of America, UBS, and Morgan Stanley have substantially increased their holdings in the China Overseas Internet ETF (KWEB), with share increases of 215.89%, 35.29%, and 24.76% respectively [1] - Soros Fund Management increased its holdings in KWEB from 290,000 shares to 2.4 million shares, a growth of over 700% [2] - Jain Global LLC, founded by Bobby Jain, increased its KWEB holdings by over 850% in Q3 [2] Group 2: Performance of Key Stocks - The top two holdings in the China Overseas Internet ETF are Tencent and Alibaba, each accounting for over 10% of the portfolio [2] - The total size of the China Overseas Internet ETF grew from $6.373 billion at the end of the first half to $9.793 billion by the end of Q3 [2] - Alibaba saw significant increases in holdings from UBS, Fidelity, and Goldman Sachs, with increases of 51.05%, 30.83%, and 8.16% respectively [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts believe that Alibaba's investments in artificial intelligence have not yet been fully reflected in its stock price, and confidence in its AI prospects has begun to rise [3] - UBS's China equity strategy head noted that despite recent adjustments in global AI stocks potentially impacting Chinese tech stocks, several factors may mitigate this effect, including lower correlation with other emerging markets [3] - Invesco's senior fund manager expressed optimism about the long-term performance of Chinese assets, citing ongoing technological innovations as a key growth driver [3]

Core Insights - Appaloosa LP, led by David Tepper, reported a total market value of $7.38 billion for its U.S. stock holdings as of September 30, 2025, reflecting a 14% increase from the previous quarter's $6.45 billion [1][2] - The firm added 10 new stocks, increased holdings in 9 stocks, reduced holdings in 24 stocks, and completely sold out of 3 stocks, with the top 10 holdings accounting for 57.59% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Summary - Alibaba (BABA.US) is the largest holding with 6.45 million shares valued at approximately $1.15 billion, representing 15.61% of the portfolio, down 8.73% from the previous quarter [2][3] - Amazon (AMZN.US) ranks second with 2.5 million shares valued at about $550 million, making up 7.43% of the portfolio, a decrease of 7.41% in share count [2][3] - Whirlpool (WHR.US) is the third largest holding with 5.5 million shares valued at around $430 million, a significant increase of 1966.95% in share count [3][5] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) is fourth with 1.9 million shares valued at approximately $354 million, an increase of 8.57% in share count [3][5] - Google (GOOG.US) is fifth with about 1.39 million shares valued at around $337 million, down 7.50% in share count [3][5] Significant Transactions - Appaloosa significantly increased its holdings in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.US), Qualcomm (QCOM.US), and Baidu (BIDU.US) [5] - The firm completely sold out of Intel (INTC.US), Oracle (ORCL.US), and Beike (BEKE.US) [5] - The top five purchases by percentage change in the portfolio included Whirlpool, AMD, KWEB, Qualcomm, and Fiserv (FISV.US) [6][7] - The top five sales by largest value included UnitedHealth (UNH.US), Intel, Vistra Energy (VST.US), Amazon, and Meta (META.US) [6][7]

Core Insights - Appaloosa LP, led by David Tepper, reported a total market value of $7.38 billion for its U.S. stock holdings as of September 30, 2025, reflecting a 14% increase from the previous quarter's $6.45 billion [1][2] Holdings Summary - Appaloosa added 10 new stocks, increased holdings in 9 stocks, reduced holdings in 24 stocks, and completely sold out of 3 stocks [1][2] - The top 10 holdings accounted for 57.59% of the total market value [2] Top Holdings - Alibaba (BABA.US) is the largest holding with 6.45 million shares valued at approximately $1.15 billion, representing 15.61% of the portfolio, down 8.73% from the previous quarter [3][4] - Amazon (AMZN.US) is the second largest holding with 2.5 million shares valued at about $550 million, accounting for 7.43% of the portfolio, down 7.41% [3][4] - Whirlpool (WHR.US) ranks third with 5.5 million shares valued at approximately $432 million, making up 5.85% of the portfolio, with a significant increase in holdings by 1966.95% [3][4] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) is the fourth largest holding with 1.9 million shares valued at around $354 million, representing 4.80% of the portfolio, up 8.57% [3][4] - Google (GOOG.US) is the fifth largest holding with approximately 1.39 million shares valued at about $337 million, accounting for 4.58% of the portfolio, down 7.50% [3][4] Significant Transactions - Appaloosa significantly increased its stake in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.US), Qualcomm (QCOM.US), and Baidu (BIDU.US) [4] - The firm completely sold out of Intel (INTC.US), Oracle (ORCL.US), and Beike (BEKE.US) [5] - The top five purchases by percentage change in the portfolio included Whirlpool, AMD (AMD.US), KWEB, Qualcomm, and Fiserv (FISV.US) [6][7] - The top five sales by largest value included UnitedHealth (UNH.US), Intel, Vistra Energy (VST.US), Amazon, and Meta (META.US) [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets have collectively surged, driven by strong performances in the U.S. and Hong Kong markets, with significant inflows from foreign investors [2][3]. Group 1: Performance of Chinese Assets - After the U.S. market opened on September 17, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.4%, and various ETFs focused on Chinese stocks saw increases of over 5% [3]. - Notable Chinese stocks such as Baidu experienced a surge of over 7%, with its H-shares rising more than 15% [3]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 4.22%, reaching its highest level since December 2021, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.78% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs indicated that the recent surge in Hong Kong stocks was driven by foreign capital, with net purchases from southbound funds amounting to approximately 9.441 billion HKD [3]. - The overall U.S. market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 0.47% and the Nasdaq down by 0.35% [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - A recent Bank of America survey revealed that 28% of global fund managers are bullish on stocks, the highest level since February [5]. - The survey indicated that nearly half of the respondents expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least four times in the next 12 months [5]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 96% probability according to market tools [6]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed will implement three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December [7].

Group 1 - International investors have shown increasing demand for Chinese assets, with five large overseas China stock ETFs attracting a net inflow of $2.753 billion since July [1] - As of July 25, the iShares MSCI China ETF reached an asset size of $7.187 billion, a growth of 12.38% since the end of June; KraneShares' China Overseas Internet ETF grew to $7.648 billion, with a 20% increase [3] - Korean investors have significantly increased their investment in Chinese stocks, with a cumulative transaction amount of $5.764 billion since 2025, maintaining China's position as the second-largest overseas stock investment destination for Korean investors [3] Group 2 - Overseas actively managed funds are increasing their positions in Chinese tech stocks, with notable increases in holdings for Tencent, Trip.com, and Alibaba among various funds [4] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90, indicating an 11% upside potential, driven by robust GDP growth in Q2, a recovery in the Hong Kong IPO market, and continued inflows from southbound funds [4] - The MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index have recently reached new highs, reflecting a positive market sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets experienced a significant surge, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising over 3% and various Chinese concept stocks seeing substantial gains amid a backdrop of mixed performance in the US stock market [2][5]. Group 1: Chinese Asset Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 3.5%, while the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF rose over 8% [5]. - Notable gains were observed in popular Chinese concept stocks, including a rise of over 11% for Xunlei, and increases of over 5% for Xiaopeng Motors and Tencent Music [2][5]. - The offshore RMB strengthened against the US dollar, recovering above the 7.24 mark, with a daily increase of over 150 points [5]. Group 2: US Employment Data - The ADP Research reported a surprising drop in US employment numbers for February, with an increase of only 77,000 jobs, the smallest since July 2024, significantly below the expected 140,000 [7][8]. - Job losses were primarily concentrated in the service sector, particularly in trade, transportation, utilities, and education and healthcare [7]. - Wage growth remained relatively stable, with a 6.7% increase for job switchers and a 4.7% increase for those staying in their positions [8]. Group 3: Tariff Developments - US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that President Trump may consider providing tariff relief for certain categories, potentially including automobiles, contingent on Canada's actions against fentanyl [12][13]. - Tariffs are expected to remain at 25%, but some categories may be exempted [13]. - Concerns were raised regarding the potential negative impact of Trump's tariff policies on US GDP growth and inflation, with estimates suggesting a 1% decrease in GDP growth and a 0.6% increase in inflation [15].