Core Points - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has experienced a decline, currently down by 2.0% [1] Group 1 - The latest value of the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index is 8488.58 points [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The study explores the effectiveness of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index in predicting the short - term trends of domestic stock indices. The quantitative timing strategy based on the previous night's performance of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index can significantly outperform the corresponding benchmark indices, with a smoother net - value curve, enhancing returns and reducing the maximum historical drawdown, especially for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [4][37]. - This research expands investors' strategy toolkits and helps futures and options intraday traders optimize trading decisions and improve trading win - rates [4][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index Introduction - It is a stock index compiled by the NASDAQ to track the stock price performance of Chinese companies listed in the US, regarded as a "barometer" of Chinese new - economy enterprises in US stocks. As of September 23, 2025, it has 73 constituent stocks, including Alibaba and Baidu, covering new - economy sectors such as the Internet, new energy, and consumer services. In terms of the number of constituent stocks, the optional consumer and information technology sectors have relatively large shares [9]. 2. Correlation Analysis between NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index and Domestic Stock Indices - There is a significant positive correlation (correlation coefficients above 0.65) between the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index and the Shanghai 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices in the past three years, indicating that the previous night's movement of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index affects the next - day movement of domestic stock indices [12][13]. - The Granger causality test on the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index and the SSE 300 and CSI 1000 indices shows that the lagged first - order NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index has a certain predictive effect on domestic stock indices, and it can be used to predict the next - day movement of domestic stock indices statistically [16]. 3. Quantitative Timing Strategy Based on NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index 3.1 Strategy Basic Logic - When (closing price - opening price)/opening price of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index on the previous day is greater than X%, indicating that the K - line entity is at least a medium - sized positive line, go long on domestic stock indices at the opening price the next day and hold until closing [17]. 3.2 Historical Back - test Performance - **Shanghai 50 Index Timing Strategy**: Since 2018, the strategy has significantly outperformed the Shanghai 50 Index, with a compound annualized return of 7.63% (compared to 0.22% of the Shanghai 50 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 44.43% to - 13.21% [19][22]. - **SSE 300 Index Timing Strategy**: The compound annualized return of the strategy is 8.42% (compared to 1.28% of the SSE 300 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 45.6% to - 10.07% [23][24]. - **CSI 500 Index Timing Strategy**: The compound annualized return of the strategy can reach 11.05% (compared to 1.65% of the CSI 500 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 41.68% to - 9.44% [28][29]. - **CSI 1000 Index Timing Strategy**: The compound annualized return of the strategy can reach 12.74% (compared to 0.63% of the CSI 1000 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 45.38% to - 10.51% [33][36]. 4. Conclusion - The strategy based on the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index can significantly outperform the corresponding benchmark indices in the past seven - plus years, with a smoother net - value curve, enhancing returns and reducing the maximum historical drawdown, especially effective for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [37]. - The research expands investors' strategy toolkits and helps futures and options intraday traders optimize trading decisions and improve trading win - rates [37].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets have collectively surged, driven by strong performances in the U.S. and Hong Kong markets, with significant inflows from foreign investors [2][3]. Group 1: Performance of Chinese Assets - After the U.S. market opened on September 17, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.4%, and various ETFs focused on Chinese stocks saw increases of over 5% [3]. - Notable Chinese stocks such as Baidu experienced a surge of over 7%, with its H-shares rising more than 15% [3]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 4.22%, reaching its highest level since December 2021, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.78% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs indicated that the recent surge in Hong Kong stocks was driven by foreign capital, with net purchases from southbound funds amounting to approximately 9.441 billion HKD [3]. - The overall U.S. market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 0.47% and the Nasdaq down by 0.35% [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - A recent Bank of America survey revealed that 28% of global fund managers are bullish on stocks, the highest level since February [5]. - The survey indicated that nearly half of the respondents expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least four times in the next 12 months [5]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 96% probability according to market tools [6]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed will implement three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in Chinese assets, driven by increased foreign investment interest and positive market conditions, particularly in the context of U.S. monetary policy changes [2][4][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose nearly 3%, closing up 2.89%, while the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF surged over 7% [2][3]. - Popular Chinese stocks saw substantial gains, with Alibaba up 8% and several others like WanGuo Data and Century Internet rising over 14% [3]. - A-shares also performed well, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.65% and the ChiNext Index rising over 5% [4]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors net bought a total of $39 billion in Chinese bonds and stocks in August, marking a significant increase in investment [2][12]. - Morgan Stanley reported that over 90% of U.S. investors expressed a willingness to increase their exposure to Chinese markets, the highest level since early 2021 [8][9]. - Global hedge funds reached a two-year high in their net positions in Chinese stocks, indicating a strong interest in the market [13]. Group 3: Factors Driving Investment - Multiple factors are driving the increased interest in Chinese assets, including China's leadership in sectors like humanoid robotics and biotechnology [9][10]. - Improved liquidity in the Chinese market is expected to extend the duration of the current market rally [10]. - There is a growing need for diversification among investors, as many portfolios are overly concentrated in the U.S. market [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's sudden shift in policy, indicating a need for adjustment, has led to a significant market reaction, with a record high margin debt of $1.02 trillion raising concerns about potential financial instability [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statement about needing to adjust policies has triggered a frenzy among Wall Street traders, betting on a rate cut in September [1]. - There is a notable internal division within the Federal Reserve, with hawkish members insisting that inflation remains the primary concern, while dovish members are advocating for immediate rate cuts [3]. Group 2: Margin Debt and Market Conditions - The current margin debt of $1.02 trillion represents 3.5% of GDP, more than double the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis [5]. - The market is experiencing extreme speculation, exemplified by Tesla's price-to-earnings ratio soaring to 80, indicating a bubble-like environment [5]. - Retail investors are increasingly leveraging their positions, while institutional investors are quietly purchasing put options as a hedge [5]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Actions - Global central banks are showing a trend of accumulating gold, with significant purchases reported, indicating a lack of trust in fiat currencies [7][8]. - The Chinese market is becoming a safe haven, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing strong performance amid global uncertainties [8]. Group 4: Potential Risks of Rate Cuts - A potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve could lead to severe market volatility, including a sharp rebound in the dollar and a significant drop in gold prices [8]. - The high levels of leverage in the U.S. stock market pose a risk of a major market crash if any adverse events occur [10]. Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - The current economic situation reflects a reliance on debt and leverage, which may not lead to sustainable growth, highlighting the fragility of the financial system [12]. - The Federal Reserve's challenges illustrate the dangers of monetary policy being influenced by political pressures, undermining its credibility [10].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets have experienced a significant surge, with foreign investment institutions increasingly optimistic about the outlook for these assets due to stable economic performance and improving corporate earnings [2][10][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose over 2% at one point, while the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF surged over 6%, and the two-times leveraged China Internet Stocks ETF increased by over 5% [4]. - Popular Chinese concept stocks saw substantial gains, with Luida Technology soaring over 33% and Xinyang rising over 17% [4]. - KraneShares China Overseas Internet ETF (KWEB) recorded a nearly 7% increase this week, while iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) rose over 4%, marking the largest weekly gains since early March [5]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Sentiment - A survey by Invesco revealed that international investment institutions are showing renewed interest in the Chinese market, with a total asset management of approximately $27 trillion [10]. - HSBC's chief economist for Greater China noted that international investors, especially from Europe and the U.S., are increasingly interested in Chinese assets due to ongoing capital market reforms and technological innovation [11]. - BlackRock's chief equity investment officer expressed optimism about the macro environment and corporate earnings, anticipating a positive performance for Chinese A-shares in the second half of the year [12]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Futu Holdings has seen strong customer growth, with a client base of 2.7 million and assets under management exceeding $100 billion, growing at an annual rate of 20%-25% [7][6]. - Barclays highlighted Futu's potential for accelerated growth in the coming years, driven by the recovery of the Asian capital markets [6]. - Revenue projections for Futu indicate a growth of 48% to HKD 18.9 billion by 2025, with an expected EPS of $60.94 for the same year [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant bullish sentiment towards Chinese assets, with major foreign investment firms recommending an overweight position in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by resilient economic growth and favorable policy support [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 24, U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surging over 3%, and various Chinese ETFs experiencing substantial gains, including an 8% rise in the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF [1]. - In the Asian trading session on the same day, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw collective increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and the Hang Seng Index increasing over 2% [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, projecting a target of 4,600 points for the CSI 300 Index and 84 points for MSCI China, indicating approximately 10% upside potential [2]. - The firm has upgraded ratings for the banking and real estate sectors, benefiting from domestic policy support, while continuing to favor consumer-oriented sectors such as medical devices, consumer services, media, and e-commerce [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs' economist Wang Lisheng notes that China's economic growth remains resilient in the short term, with exports exceeding expectations, but a shift from export-driven to domestic demand-driven growth will require more policy support [4]. - The expectation is for increased policy measures in the second half of the year, although large-scale stimulus is unlikely to be announced in the very short term [4]. Group 4: Technology Sector Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts a further 15%-20% increase in Asian tech stocks this year, driven by the momentum in artificial intelligence and supportive policies [5]. - Analysts emphasize that AI will continue to lead the current market cycle, with significant growth in data center capital expenditures expected by 2025 [6]. Group 5: Global Investment Trends - There is a growing interest among global investors in China's innovation and leadership in technology, with emerging market currencies strengthening, providing central banks with more room to cut interest rates [7]. - In May and June, emerging market equity and bond funds saw a net inflow of $11 billion, reversing a significant outflow in April, indicating a favorable environment for stock markets [7].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets are experiencing a significant rebound, with major stock indices and Chinese concept stocks showing strong performance, driven by positive sentiment from foreign investment firms and macroeconomic resilience [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 24, U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surging over 3% and various ETFs focused on Chinese stocks seeing gains of 6% to 8% [2]. - In the Asian trading session on the same day, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rallied, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by over 2% [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Sentiment - Major foreign investment firms, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have expressed bullish views on Chinese assets, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a target of 4600 points for the CSI 300 Index and 84 points for MSCI China, indicating approximately 10% upside potential [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs' economist Wang Lisheng noted that China's economic growth remains resilient in the short term, with exports exceeding expectations, but a shift from export-driven to domestic demand-driven growth will require more policy support [7]. - Wang anticipates that policy measures will be more pronounced in the second half of the year, although large-scale stimulus is unlikely in the immediate term [7]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - Goldman Sachs has upgraded ratings for the banking and real estate sectors due to domestic policy support, while continuing to favor consumer-oriented sectors such as medical devices, consumer services, media, and e-commerce [4]. - The report from JPMorgan indicates that Asian tech stocks are expected to rise by 15% to 20% this year, driven by strong momentum in artificial intelligence [9][10]. Group 5: Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in global investment flows, with emerging market stocks and bonds seeing a net inflow of $11 billion in May and June, reversing previous outflows [14]. - The performance of emerging market indices has outpaced developed market indices, with the GBI emerging market local currency bond index and MSCI emerging market large-cap index both up around 10% year-to-date [14].

Report Overview - The report is a special report on the May Day holiday in 2025, analyzing the price changes of various sectors in the external market during the holiday, important news, and providing post - holiday trading suggestions [2] 1. 2025 May Day Holiday External Market Price Changes Exchange and Precious Metals - The US dollar index rose 0.58% from 99.22 to 99.8; the US silver continuous contract fell 1.27% from 33.04 to 32.62; the US gold continuous contract dropped 1.33% from 3315.2 to 3271 [2] Stock Indexes - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased 4.03% from 6894.72 to 7172.4; the German DAX rose 2.95%, the Hang Seng main contract climbed 2.69%, the French CAC40 went up 2.68%, the S&P 500 increased 1.46%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.13%, and the Nikkei 225 increased 1.04% [2] Commodities - Some commodities like US cotton continuous contract rose 3.31%, while others such as Brent crude oil continuous contract fell 4.55% and WTI crude oil continuous contract dropped 5.04% [2] 2. 2025 May Day Holiday Important News Stock Index Sector - Global major stock indexes performed well during the holiday. The rise was related to tariff negotiation progress and Fed policy expectations. The US proposed to lower tariffs, and the Fed's potential rate - cut in the future could ease global liquidity pressure [3] Energy Sector - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day from June, which may complete the 2.2 million barrels per day total increase target nearly one year ahead. This led to concerns about supply pressure and a decline in oil prices [4] Precious Metals Sector - Gold prices fluctuated due to tariff negotiation progress. Even if tariffs improve, central banks' gold - buying trend may continue. Silver was under pressure due to unclear macro - economic situations and high - level gold price fluctuations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Strong US non - farm payroll data cooled rate - cut expectations, and low manufacturing PMI restricted the rebound space of non - ferrous metals [6][7] Black Metals Sector - For steel, production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and apparent demand rose during the holiday, but the sustainability is uncertain. For iron ore, it faced a situation of high supply, weak demand, and policy suppression [8] Agricultural Products Sector - Vegetable oils in the external market fell significantly due to the decline in international oil prices. Different agricultural products had different trends, such as soybeans and soybean meal having narrow - range fluctuations [9][10] 3. Post - holiday Trading Suggestions Energy and Chemicals - The crude oil market is expected to be weak after the holiday, which may drive down the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Styrene is expected to continue its weak trend [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - Non - ferrous metals may fluctuate after the holiday. Shanghai copper may have a relatively strong oscillation [13] Black Metals - Steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, and its upward space is restricted in the long term. Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][13] Agricultural Products - Domestic vegetable oil varieties are likely to follow the external market's decline. Dalian soybeans and soybean meal may continue the weak - oscillation trend, and corn futures may continue the pre - holiday strong - oscillation trend [14]

Group 1 - The three times leveraged FTSE China ETF saw an initial increase of nearly 10% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.7% [1] - Alibaba experienced a nearly 5% increase [1] Group 2 - JD.com rose by 4% [1] - Xpeng Motors increased by over 6.5% [1] - Kingsoft Cloud saw an increase of over 7% [1]