美联储突然认怂！万亿杠杆压顶，降息竟是饮鸩止渴？ 当鲍威尔嘴硬半年后突然改口"需要调整政策"时，华尔街交易员们疯狂押注九月降息——却没人注意到，一点零二万亿美元保证金债务正发出熔 断前的红光！ 金融市场昨夜经历史诗级反转！美联储主席鲍威尔刚说完"需要调整政策"，黄金瞬间暴涨30美元，美元指数应声下跌。但狂欢背后藏着致命危 机：美国投资者借钱炒股规模已达1.02万亿美元，正刷新历史最高杠杆纪录！ 鹰鸽大战撕裂美联储 这场政策急转弯背后是罕见的内部分裂： - 鹰派嘴硬：卡什卡利坚称"通胀仍是头号敌人" - 鸽派抢权：鲍曼从鹰王秒变降息急先锋，沃勒紧跟鼓吹速降 - 历史性泄露：七月会议纪要显示两名理事反水要求立即降息 特朗普的威胁只是背景噪音，真正逼美联储低头的是华尔街的流动性饥渴！财政部"大而美"法案后疯狂发债，回购利率数次跳升，美元荒已到临 界点——再不放水，金融体系九月就要断粮。 致命杠杆堆到天上 当前市场狂欢像极泡沫前夜： 1. 杠杆爆表：1.02万亿保证金债务占GDP3.5%，超2008年金融危机两倍 2. 疯炒泡沫：特斯拉单日涨6%但市盈率高达80倍，比2021年meme股更荒唐 3. 散户癫狂：聪明钱 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets have experienced a significant surge, with foreign investment institutions increasingly optimistic about the outlook for these assets due to stable economic performance and improving corporate earnings [2][10][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose over 2% at one point, while the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF surged over 6%, and the two-times leveraged China Internet Stocks ETF increased by over 5% [4]. - Popular Chinese concept stocks saw substantial gains, with Luida Technology soaring over 33% and Xinyang rising over 17% [4]. - KraneShares China Overseas Internet ETF (KWEB) recorded a nearly 7% increase this week, while iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) rose over 4%, marking the largest weekly gains since early March [5]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Sentiment - A survey by Invesco revealed that international investment institutions are showing renewed interest in the Chinese market, with a total asset management of approximately $27 trillion [10]. - HSBC's chief economist for Greater China noted that international investors, especially from Europe and the U.S., are increasingly interested in Chinese assets due to ongoing capital market reforms and technological innovation [11]. - BlackRock's chief equity investment officer expressed optimism about the macro environment and corporate earnings, anticipating a positive performance for Chinese A-shares in the second half of the year [12]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Futu Holdings has seen strong customer growth, with a client base of 2.7 million and assets under management exceeding $100 billion, growing at an annual rate of 20%-25% [7][6]. - Barclays highlighted Futu's potential for accelerated growth in the coming years, driven by the recovery of the Asian capital markets [6]. - Revenue projections for Futu indicate a growth of 48% to HKD 18.9 billion by 2025, with an expected EPS of $60.94 for the same year [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant bullish sentiment towards Chinese assets, with major foreign investment firms recommending an overweight position in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by resilient economic growth and favorable policy support [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 24, U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surging over 3%, and various Chinese ETFs experiencing substantial gains, including an 8% rise in the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF [1]. - In the Asian trading session on the same day, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw collective increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and the Hang Seng Index increasing over 2% [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, projecting a target of 4,600 points for the CSI 300 Index and 84 points for MSCI China, indicating approximately 10% upside potential [2]. - The firm has upgraded ratings for the banking and real estate sectors, benefiting from domestic policy support, while continuing to favor consumer-oriented sectors such as medical devices, consumer services, media, and e-commerce [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs' economist Wang Lisheng notes that China's economic growth remains resilient in the short term, with exports exceeding expectations, but a shift from export-driven to domestic demand-driven growth will require more policy support [4]. - The expectation is for increased policy measures in the second half of the year, although large-scale stimulus is unlikely to be announced in the very short term [4]. Group 4: Technology Sector Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts a further 15%-20% increase in Asian tech stocks this year, driven by the momentum in artificial intelligence and supportive policies [5]. - Analysts emphasize that AI will continue to lead the current market cycle, with significant growth in data center capital expenditures expected by 2025 [6]. Group 5: Global Investment Trends - There is a growing interest among global investors in China's innovation and leadership in technology, with emerging market currencies strengthening, providing central banks with more room to cut interest rates [7]. - In May and June, emerging market equity and bond funds saw a net inflow of $11 billion, reversing a significant outflow in April, indicating a favorable environment for stock markets [7].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets are experiencing a significant rebound, with major stock indices and Chinese concept stocks showing strong performance, driven by positive sentiment from foreign investment firms and macroeconomic resilience [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 24, U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surging over 3% and various ETFs focused on Chinese stocks seeing gains of 6% to 8% [2]. - In the Asian trading session on the same day, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rallied, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by over 2% [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Sentiment - Major foreign investment firms, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have expressed bullish views on Chinese assets, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a target of 4600 points for the CSI 300 Index and 84 points for MSCI China, indicating approximately 10% upside potential [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs' economist Wang Lisheng noted that China's economic growth remains resilient in the short term, with exports exceeding expectations, but a shift from export-driven to domestic demand-driven growth will require more policy support [7]. - Wang anticipates that policy measures will be more pronounced in the second half of the year, although large-scale stimulus is unlikely in the immediate term [7]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - Goldman Sachs has upgraded ratings for the banking and real estate sectors due to domestic policy support, while continuing to favor consumer-oriented sectors such as medical devices, consumer services, media, and e-commerce [4]. - The report from JPMorgan indicates that Asian tech stocks are expected to rise by 15% to 20% this year, driven by strong momentum in artificial intelligence [9][10]. Group 5: Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in global investment flows, with emerging market stocks and bonds seeing a net inflow of $11 billion in May and June, reversing previous outflows [14]. - The performance of emerging market indices has outpaced developed market indices, with the GBI emerging market local currency bond index and MSCI emerging market large-cap index both up around 10% year-to-date [14].

Report Overview - The report is a special report on the May Day holiday in 2025, analyzing the price changes of various sectors in the external market during the holiday, important news, and providing post - holiday trading suggestions [2] 1. 2025 May Day Holiday External Market Price Changes Exchange and Precious Metals - The US dollar index rose 0.58% from 99.22 to 99.8; the US silver continuous contract fell 1.27% from 33.04 to 32.62; the US gold continuous contract dropped 1.33% from 3315.2 to 3271 [2] Stock Indexes - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased 4.03% from 6894.72 to 7172.4; the German DAX rose 2.95%, the Hang Seng main contract climbed 2.69%, the French CAC40 went up 2.68%, the S&P 500 increased 1.46%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.13%, and the Nikkei 225 increased 1.04% [2] Commodities - Some commodities like US cotton continuous contract rose 3.31%, while others such as Brent crude oil continuous contract fell 4.55% and WTI crude oil continuous contract dropped 5.04% [2] 2. 2025 May Day Holiday Important News Stock Index Sector - Global major stock indexes performed well during the holiday. The rise was related to tariff negotiation progress and Fed policy expectations. The US proposed to lower tariffs, and the Fed's potential rate - cut in the future could ease global liquidity pressure [3] Energy Sector - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day from June, which may complete the 2.2 million barrels per day total increase target nearly one year ahead. This led to concerns about supply pressure and a decline in oil prices [4] Precious Metals Sector - Gold prices fluctuated due to tariff negotiation progress. Even if tariffs improve, central banks' gold - buying trend may continue. Silver was under pressure due to unclear macro - economic situations and high - level gold price fluctuations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Strong US non - farm payroll data cooled rate - cut expectations, and low manufacturing PMI restricted the rebound space of non - ferrous metals [6][7] Black Metals Sector - For steel, production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and apparent demand rose during the holiday, but the sustainability is uncertain. For iron ore, it faced a situation of high supply, weak demand, and policy suppression [8] Agricultural Products Sector - Vegetable oils in the external market fell significantly due to the decline in international oil prices. Different agricultural products had different trends, such as soybeans and soybean meal having narrow - range fluctuations [9][10] 3. Post - holiday Trading Suggestions Energy and Chemicals - The crude oil market is expected to be weak after the holiday, which may drive down the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Styrene is expected to continue its weak trend [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - Non - ferrous metals may fluctuate after the holiday. Shanghai copper may have a relatively strong oscillation [13] Black Metals - Steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, and its upward space is restricted in the long term. Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][13] Agricultural Products - Domestic vegetable oil varieties are likely to follow the external market's decline. Dalian soybeans and soybean meal may continue the weak - oscillation trend, and corn futures may continue the pre - holiday strong - oscillation trend [14]

Group 1 - The three times leveraged FTSE China ETF saw an initial increase of nearly 10% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.7% [1] - Alibaba experienced a nearly 5% increase [1] Group 2 - JD.com rose by 4% [1] - Xpeng Motors increased by over 6.5% [1] - Kingsoft Cloud saw an increase of over 7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets experienced a significant surge, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising over 3% and various Chinese concept stocks seeing substantial gains amid a backdrop of mixed performance in the US stock market [2][5]. Group 1: Chinese Asset Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 3.5%, while the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF rose over 8% [5]. - Notable gains were observed in popular Chinese concept stocks, including a rise of over 11% for Xunlei, and increases of over 5% for Xiaopeng Motors and Tencent Music [2][5]. - The offshore RMB strengthened against the US dollar, recovering above the 7.24 mark, with a daily increase of over 150 points [5]. Group 2: US Employment Data - The ADP Research reported a surprising drop in US employment numbers for February, with an increase of only 77,000 jobs, the smallest since July 2024, significantly below the expected 140,000 [7][8]. - Job losses were primarily concentrated in the service sector, particularly in trade, transportation, utilities, and education and healthcare [7]. - Wage growth remained relatively stable, with a 6.7% increase for job switchers and a 4.7% increase for those staying in their positions [8]. Group 3: Tariff Developments - US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that President Trump may consider providing tariff relief for certain categories, potentially including automobiles, contingent on Canada's actions against fentanyl [12][13]. - Tariffs are expected to remain at 25%, but some categories may be exempted [13]. - Concerns were raised regarding the potential negative impact of Trump's tariff policies on US GDP growth and inflation, with estimates suggesting a 1% decrease in GDP growth and a 0.6% increase in inflation [15].