专题：2025资产管理高峰论坛 责任编辑：王翔 11月26日，在经济观察报主办的"2025资产管理高峰论坛"上，中国人民银行金融研究所副所长张怀清在 主题演讲中表示，未来中国的资产将成为全球投资者分散风险，提升收益的重要一环。我国已建成比较 齐全且有深度的金融市场体系，债券和股票市场规模均居全球第二。人民币币值稳定、资产种类多样， 有助于全球投资者实现资产配置多样化和风险分散。我国金融开放更加强调制度型开放，包括规则、规 制、管理和标准等方面，市场环境稳定，人民币币值稳定和汇率低波动成为国际投资者配置人民币资产 的长期有利因素。此外，中国经济的韧性和高质量资产也为其带来分散风险和稳定收益的价值。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among brokerage strategy analysts indicates a rebound in the market, as multiple factors that led to last week's stock index adjustments have improved over the weekend [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market's perception of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts has shifted significantly, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising from 30% to 71%, alleviating global risk aversion [1] - The expectation of liquidity improvement and the ongoing iteration of global AI applications are likely to ease concerns regarding an "AI bubble" [2] - The internal logic supporting the rise of Chinese assets remains strong, driven by enhanced national competitiveness, the release of new economic momentum, clear policy transformation, and stable economic fundamentals [2][3] Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors that are expected to outperform in the coming year, particularly those benefiting from high growth forecasts, such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand [3] - The approval of 16 technology ETFs, including those focused on AI, is expected to guide capital towards high-quality technology companies in the A-share market, providing a positive regulatory signal [2][3] - The technology sector's recent adjustments are attributed to the influence of U.S. AI leaders and year-end institutional fund strategies, but the overall tech market is expected to continue its upward trajectory post-correction [2][4] Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - The current market adjustments are viewed as short-term disturbances that do not alter the underlying bull market logic, with expectations of continued capital inflow and improved earnings across sectors [3][4] - The potential for a significant reversal in the fundamentals of the AI industry in the U.S. is considered low, which should provide substantial valuation growth opportunities for comparable companies in China [4] - The overall sentiment indicates that the market is not lacking in liquidity, and the concerns regarding long-tail risks in the Chinese economy are gradually easing [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong global demand for Chinese sovereign bonds, evidenced by the record-breaking issuance of €4 billion in Luxembourg, which attracted over 1,000 institutional investors and achieved a subscription multiple of 25 times [1] - The issuance of $4 billion in sovereign bonds two weeks prior also saw a high subscription multiple of nearly 30 times, indicating robust global investment interest in Chinese sovereign debt [1] - The distribution of international investors shows a significant allocation to long-term investors such as central banks and sovereign wealth funds, with over 60% of the bonds allocated to regions outside Asia, reflecting confidence in the safety and sustainability of Chinese assets [1] Group 2 - In 2023, China has significantly expanded its overseas sovereign bond issuance, surpassing the total amount issued in the previous year, supported by a favorable global interest rate environment and increasing financing needs of Chinese enterprises going abroad [1] - The issuance of multi-currency sovereign bonds provides a pricing benchmark for Chinese companies seeking overseas financing, helping to reduce their financing costs and uncertainties [1] - The continuous inflow of foreign capital into Chinese assets is also evident domestically, with a record high of $31 billion in securities investment settlement in October, indicating a positive outlook from foreign institutions on China's stock and currency markets [2]

本周，财政部代表中央政府在卢森堡成功发行40亿欧元主权债券。此次发行吸引了全球投资者的踊跃认 购，超过1000家机构参与，最终订单规模逾1000亿欧元，认购倍数25倍，创下中国欧元主权债券发行的 历史纪录。两周前，财政部发行的40亿美元主权债券同样受到市场热捧，认购倍数近30倍，充分显示出 中国主权债券空前强劲的全球投资需求。 （原标题：时报观察丨主权债券屡受热捧 中国资产"圈粉"全球） 证券时报记者 孙璐璐 中国资产不仅在海外金融市场大放异彩，在境内同样引得外资的持续流入。国家外汇局最新数据显示， 10月证券投资结汇规模创下310亿美元的历史新高，当月证券投资项下结售汇顺差50亿美元。近期多家 主流外资机构在展望明年市场表现时，纷纷看好中国的股市、汇市，外资流入趋势有望延续。可以预 期，随着中国经济高质量发展的持续推进，以及金融业对外开放的稳步深化，中国资产在全球金融市场 的影响力与配置权重将进一步提升。 从国际投资者类型分布看，央行、主权财富基金、银行保险等长期投资者占比高，本次欧元主权债券发 行中，亚洲以外地区获配超过六成。机构类型和区域分布的多元化，都彰显出国际投资界对中国资产的 安全性和财政稳健可持 ...

证券时报记者孙璐璐 本周，财政部代表中央政府在卢森堡成功发行40亿欧元主权债券。此次发行吸引了全球投资者的踊跃认 购，超过1000家机构参与，最终订单规模逾1000亿欧元，认购倍数25倍，创下中国欧元主权债券发行的 历史纪录。两周前，财政部发行的40亿美元主权债券同样受到市场热捧，认购倍数近30倍，充分显示出 中国主权债券空前强劲的全球投资需求。 从国际投资者类型分布看，央行、主权财富基金、银行保险等长期投资者占比高，本次欧元主权债券发 行中，亚洲以外地区获配超过六成。机构类型和区域分布的多元化，都彰显出国际投资界对中国资产的 安全性和财政稳健可持续性的认可，其背后反映的是对中国经济发展的信心。 今年以来，中国在海外发行主权债的规模明显扩张，目前已远超去年全年水平。海外发债提速的背后， 既有全球央行降息带来宽松融资环境的支撑，更重要的是随着中资企业持续深耕"出海"，境外融资需求 随之上升，我国在海外常态化发行多币种主权债券，可为中资企业境外融资提供定价基准的参考，有助 于降低其融资成本与不确定性。二者之间协同的进一步深化，也有利于壮大中国资产在全球金融市场的 影响力和吸引力。 中国资产不仅在海外金融市场大放异 ...

中国资产不仅在海外金融市场大放异彩，在境内同样引得外资的持续流入。国家外汇局最新数据显示， 10月证券投资结汇规模创下310亿美元的历史新高，当月证券投资项下结售汇顺差50亿美元。近期多家 主流外资机构在展望明年市场表现时，纷纷看好中国的股市、汇市，外资流入趋势有望延续。可以预 期，随着中国经济高质量发展的持续推进，以及金融业对外开放的稳步深化，中国资产在全球金融市场 的影响力与配置权重将进一步提升。 从国际投资者类型分布看，央行、主权财富基金、银行保险等长期投资者占比高，本次欧元主权债券发 行中，亚洲以外地区获配超过六成。机构类型和区域分布的多元化，都彰显出国际投资界对中国资产的 安全性和财政稳健可持续性的认可，其背后反映的是对中国经济发展的信心。 本周，财政部代表中央政府在卢森堡成功发行40亿欧元主权债券。此次发行吸引了全球投资者的踊跃认 购，超过1000家机构参与，最终订单规模逾1000亿欧元，认购倍数25倍，创下中国欧元主权债券发行的 历史纪录。两周前，财政部发行的40亿美元主权债券同样受到市场热捧，认购倍数近30倍，充分显示出 中国主权债券空前强劲的全球投资需求。 今年以来，中国在海外发行主权债的规 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在2025年又搞出不少动静，特别是在利率政策上，他的鹰派表态，让人觉得跟中国宽 松的调子形成了鲜明对比。 2025年10月底，鲍威尔明确表示，美联储对12月降息的预期要收紧，因为通胀压力还没完全消退，劳动 力市场还挺稳。 此话一出，新兴市场资产立马往下走，美元指数上涨，直接抵消了中美贸易缓和带来的积极影响。中美 刚有点贸易停战的意思，结果美联储这一手，就让资金流动的方向又变了。 中国货币政策还是偏向宽松，央行通过各种工具保持流动性，像是降准和回购操作，这些都旨在稳住经 济增长。 可鲍威尔这么一说，外界解读成隔空喊话，因为美国高利率会吸走全球资金，中国要是继续宽松，汇率 压力就大了。 2024年12月，鲍威尔说过类似的话，当时美联储全年降了100个基点，但点阵图显示2025年只降50个， 现在看来执行得更紧。 2025年，美联储的动作其实从年初就开始调整。1月到2月，联邦基金利率保持在4.25%到4.5%，鲍威尔 在几次会议后反复强调，要根据数据来，通胀如果反弹，就得谨慎。 结果到7月，美债持仓数据出来，中国减持了25.7亿美元，持仓降到730.7亿美元，这是自2008年底以来 的最低点。日本持 ...

Group 1 - Several foreign institutions have raised their target index levels for the Chinese market in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for long-term investment in Chinese assets [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has set the target for the CSI 300 index at 4840 points by December 2026, citing moderate profit growth and stable valuations as key factors [2] - UBS has set the target for the MSCI China Index at 100 points by the end of 2026, predicting inflows from domestic and foreign investors to boost overall valuations [2] Group 2 - There is a clear trend of increasing foreign investment in Chinese assets, with UBS reporting a slight increase in China allocations across various funds in Q3 [3] - Foreign institutions have conducted over 1300 surveys of A-share listed companies since the beginning of Q4, indicating strong interest in the A-share market [3] - Notable foreign institutions like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas have increased their allocations in A-shares, focusing on sectors such as electrical equipment, chemicals, and software services [3] Group 3 - The ongoing improvement of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system is expected to enhance the convenience of cross-border investment, supporting the influx of foreign capital [4][5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is working on optimizing the QFII system to attract more long-term foreign capital, including measures to streamline approval processes [5] - The CSRC aims to establish a transparent and comprehensive legal framework for foreign investment in the capital market, enhancing the stability and predictability of the investment environment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple foreign institutions are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of the Chinese stock market, with firms like UBS and Morgan Stanley raising their target index levels for 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Target Index Adjustments - Morgan Stanley has slightly raised its target for the CSI 300 index to 4,840 points by December 2026, citing moderate profit growth and stable valuations [1] - UBS has set a target of 100 points for the MSCI China Index by the end of 2026, indicating potential upside from current levels [2] Group 2: Investment Preferences - The technology sector remains a primary investment focus, with UBS and Morgan Stanley recommending overweight positions in high-quality internet and technology stocks [2] - High-dividend assets are also favored, particularly quality state-owned enterprises, due to their stable cash flows and policy support [2] Group 3: Foreign Capital Inflows - There is a noticeable trend of foreign institutions increasing their allocation to Chinese assets, with UBS reporting a slight increase in Chinese positions across various fund types in Q3 [2][3] - Over 1,300 instances of foreign institutional research on A-share companies have been recorded since the beginning of Q4 [2] Group 4: QFII System Enhancements - The QFII system is expected to continue improving, enhancing the convenience of cross-border investments, with recent measures aimed at optimizing access and management [3][4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is working on enhancing the legal framework for foreign investment, aiming for a transparent and comprehensive system [4]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple foreign securities and fund companies have released outlook reports for 2026, indicating that the current Chinese stock market has medium to long-term allocation value driven by ample liquidity and improving profitability [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - UBS sets the MSCI China Index target for the end of 2026 at 100, representing a 14% upside from current levels [3] - Morgan Stanley raises its target for the CSI 300 Index to 4840 points by December 2026, citing moderate corporate profit growth and a more favorable external environment [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Foreign institutions favor sectors such as technology, internet, and high-dividend assets [4] - UBS is optimistic about technology stocks, internet stocks, and the brokerage sector, while Morgan Stanley recommends a "barbell strategy" focusing on high-quality internet and technology leaders alongside some high-dividend assets for stable cash returns [4] - Goldman Sachs has identified 50 stocks across 21 sub-industries, including 30 A-shares and 20 overseas-listed Chinese stocks, expected to outperform the market in the future [4] Group 3: Cross-Border Investment Facilitation - Foreign institutions express confidence in China's capital market due to a series of landmark opening measures aimed at enhancing cross-border investment and financing convenience [5] - The recent approval of Huafu International Asset Management Co., Ltd. as a qualified foreign investor by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) exemplifies the expedited approval process [6] - The CSRC has introduced an optimization plan for the qualified foreign investor system, aiming to streamline the investment pre-approval process and enhance efficiency in various related procedures [6][7]