信号二：伊朗内部政局是否稳定，这决定了冲突蔓延的程度。据新华社报道，当地时间2月28日，特朗 普在社交媒体Truth Social发文，称伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊"已死"，后续需密切关注事态发展，是否引致 冲突或外交形势的变化。 信号三：伊朗的报复手段是否实质性涉及关键产油设施与航路，这决定了市场冲击的深度。据新华社2 月28日报道，霍尔木兹海峡油轮运输陷入停滞，全球多家大型石油公司、能源贸易商已紧急下达指令， 暂停所有石油与燃料船舶通过霍尔木兹海峡，以回避冲突升级带来的安全风险。后续需关注相关威胁是 否实质性落地。 综合来看，若上述三个信号未出现重大变化，市场影响或可视为2025年6月"十二日战争"时期的放大 版；但需关注上述信号的潜在变化是否引致更极端的情景。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，当地时间2月28日，伊朗局势进入了军事冲突爆发阶段。截 至北京时间3月1日10:00，伊朗局势仍在快速变化，预计难以一次性按最终情景推测并演绎，更可能跟 随重要信号持续波动，美军军事调动、伊朗政局变化、冲突外溢范围三个关键信号是否出现潜在变化， 将决定全球市场影响为2025年6月"十二日战争"的放大版，还是走向更 ...

◉ 外部：美元信用基础松动 美联储2025年累计降息75个基点，美元指数跌至95-100区间弱势震荡。近期美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查，美联储独立性受到冲击， 美元进一步承压。美元偏弱，自然带动包括人民币在内的非美货币升值。 ◉ 内部：万亿顺差+结汇潮形成正反馈 节后开工，除了A股迎来"开门红"，汇市也传来大消息。2月25日，在岸、离岸人民币双双升破6.87关口，创下2023年4月以来，也就是近34个月的新 高。进入2月以来，人民币兑美元从6.96附近持续走高，累计升值幅度接近1.3%。（数据来源：Wind，截至2026.02.25。） 不少投资者在问：人民币为什么持续走强？这波升值对咱们的钱袋子意味着什么？中国资产是不是该"高看一手"了？今天我就来聊聊这个话题。 一、人民币为何走强？ 本轮人民币升值不是单一因素驱动，而是内外因素共同作用的结果。结合市场上的观点，我总结了三点原因： 负债效应：摩托车、汽零、工程机械、光伏设备等美元有息债务占比高的行业，迎来债务减负和汇兑收益，直接增厚企业当期盈利。 成本效应：电子化学品、种业、冶钢原料等进口依赖度高、出口依赖度低的行业，人民币购买力提升让进口原材料 ...

相关报告 《市场分析：通信资源行业领涨 A 股震荡上 行》 2026-02-24 《市场分析：航天传媒行业领涨 A 股小幅上 行》 2026-02-10 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2026-02-09 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 资源电池行业领涨 A 股震荡上行 ——市场分析 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 25 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（02 月 25 日）A 股市场高开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指高 开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在 4167 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震 荡，盘中有色金属、能源金属、电池以及航天航空等行业表现较 好；影视院线、旅游零售、广告营销以及数字媒体等行业表现较 弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡上扬的运行特征。创业板市场周三 震荡上行，创业板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke through 6.89, closing at 6.8835 against the USD, with an increase of 176 points [2] - As of February 17, at 10:45 AM, the offshore RMB was reported at 6.887 against the USD [2] Group 2 - Industrial Securities noted that the RMB exchange rate is supported by multiple favorable factors, leading to appreciation against the USD and enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets for foreign investors [3] - The weakening of the USD due to its disruptive impact on global order is beneficial for emerging market assets, particularly stable currency and improving fundamental RMB assets [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a significant increase of 4.85% in the first five trading days after the Spring Festival in 2024, marking the highest growth in nearly a decade, with a general optimistic outlook for the 2025 Spring Festival [1] - Over 60% of private equity firms are inclined to hold substantial or full positions during the holiday, reflecting a strong risk appetite among investors [1] - The trading volume and financing balance are critical indicators for assessing whether capital will flow back into the market, potentially signaling the start of a major upward trend [1] Group 2 - Foreign institutions such as BlackRock China and Fidelity International anticipate a gradual diversification in global asset allocation over the next 3 to 5 years, moving away from a heavy concentration on dollar assets [2] - The Chinese market is regaining vitality, with advantages in complete industrial chains, strong innovation capabilities, and relatively attractive valuations [2] - In the week before the holiday, 65 A-share listed companies participated in institutional research, with 237 institutional investors involved in these surveys [3]

Market Overview - In Q4 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a cumulative increase of 2.22%, while the CSI 300 index saw a slight decline of 0.2%, indicating a strong oscillating state in the Chinese market [1] - Strong assets such as overseas computing power, storage, and metals continued to rise, reflecting a pricing trend for prosperous assets [1] - The military industry index, represented by satellites, aerospace, and rockets, also saw significant gains, indicating capital market interest in space exploration [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for the Huashang Quality Value Mixed Fund emphasizes stock selection, with a strong focus on growth assets, particularly in the information industry [3] - Investments in AI infrastructure remain significant, particularly in fiber optics, optical devices, and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics), which are believed to be undervalued [3] - Adjustments in the energy sector include reducing positions in electric power equipment and new energy, reallocating to solid-state transformers and gas turbines to better align with long-term AI industry changes [3] Fund Performance - The Huashang Quality Value Mixed Fund A achieved a net value growth rate of 48.26% over the past year, significantly outperforming the benchmark return of 14.24% by 34.02% [2] - The fund's performance ranks in the top 25% of its category over the past year, reflecting effective management and strategic positioning [2] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to Q1 2026, confidence in Chinese assets remains strong, with expectations of increased competitiveness in various industries despite challenges [5] - The anticipated emergence of new defense technologies is expected to enhance China's competitive position globally [5] - The overall market remains in a strategic opportunity phase, with the A and H markets still at historically low levels [5] Sector Allocation - In Q4, the fund reduced holdings in electric power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and real estate while increasing investments in military, electronics, and telecommunications [6] - The overall investment style maintains a balanced allocation while enhancing growth-oriented investments across key sectors [6]

【德银全球CIO：AI不是泡沫，中国资产吸引力上升】德银全球首席投资官(CIO)克里斯蒂安.诺尔廷(Christian Nolting)表示，围绕AI的投资是一场正在展开的"结构性变革"，尚不足以称之为泡沫；相关投资不应仅聚焦芯片， 而应放眼更完整的价值链；在这一过程中，数据中心、电力与基础设施等领域将同样受益。 【德银全球CIO：AI不是泡沫，中国资产吸引力上升】德银全球首席投资官(CIO)克里斯蒂安.诺尔廷(Christian Nolting)表示，围绕AI的投资是一场正在展开的"结构性变革"，尚不足以称之为泡沫；相关投资不应仅聚焦芯片， 而应放眼更完整的价值链；在这一过程中，数据中心、电力与基础设施等领域将同样受益。 谈及中国及新兴市场，诺尔廷认为，中国资产的吸引力有所增强，来自欧洲和美国的投资兴趣正在回升。 谈及中国及新兴市场，诺尔廷认为，中国资产的吸引力有所增强，来自欧洲和美国的投资兴趣正在回升。 在他看来，在美元走势、通胀风险与地缘政治不确定性并存的环境下，坚持投资纪律、进行多元化配置，将是 2026年应对市场波动的关键。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in Hong Kong's economic and financial landscape have garnered significant attention, with a notable increase in IPO activities and GDP growth projected for 2025, indicating a robust recovery and expansion trend since 2021 [2][3]. Group 1: IPO and Market Dynamics - In 2025, Hong Kong is expected to witness 119 IPOs, with a substantial increase in financing, leading the global market [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a record net inflow of southbound capital, reaching 1,404.84 billion HKD in 2025, marking a historical high since the launch of the Stock Connect program [2]. - The introduction of new IPO regulations by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in August 2025 has improved the pricing and allocation mechanisms for new shares, while lowering the listing thresholds for "A+H" issuers [2][3]. Group 2: Capital Inflows and International Participation - Domestic capital is actively participating in the Hong Kong stock market for cross-border asset allocation, contributing to a cumulative net inflow of over 5.1 trillion HKD since the Stock Connect's inception [2]. - International capital is increasingly entering the Hong Kong market, driven by a weaker US dollar and global liquidity conditions, seeking safe returns [2][3]. - The majority of new companies established in Hong Kong in 2025 are engaged in import-export trade, wholesale, and retail, reflecting Hong Kong's status as an international trade and financial hub [4]. Group 3: Technological and Structural Developments - The listing rules for unprofitable biotech companies and specialized technology firms in Hong Kong have encouraged the growth of high-tech enterprises, leading to market valuation premiums [3]. - The Hong Kong government is prioritizing the development of an international innovation and technology center, supported by national policies aimed at enhancing technological self-reliance and productivity [5]. - The synergy between technology and finance is expected to drive structural upgrades in Hong Kong's economy, enhancing its competitiveness as an international financial center [5]. Group 4: Future Development Focus - Future national development priorities include promoting supply-side structural reforms, deepening demand-side reforms, and expanding high-level openness [6]. - Hong Kong is positioned to play a crucial role in enhancing national competitiveness in supply chains and participating in the Greater Bay Area market development [6]. - To achieve these goals, Hong Kong must strengthen its hard and soft power across various dimensions, including economic, industrial, and technological capabilities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to see improved foreign investment allocation in 2026, driven by reasonable valuations, a stable currency, and strong innovation capabilities in AI and other fields [1][2]. Group 1: Market Positioning and Fund Allocation - Despite global active funds being underweight in China, there has been a marginal improvement in allocation, particularly among global and Asia-Pacific funds [2]. - As of December 2025, the allocation of Chinese stocks in global (including U.S.) active equity funds is approximately 3.1%, while it is 9% in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan, 29% in emerging market funds, and 32.7% in Asia excluding Japan [2]. - The underweight position in Chinese stocks for global (including U.S.) active equity funds is 1.8%, and for Asia-Pacific excluding Japan, it is 2.4% [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Performance Expectations - The MSCI China index is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.5, which is relatively reasonable compared to the MSCI Asia-Pacific and Asia excluding Japan, which have P/E ratios of 15.3 and 13.9, respectively [3]. - The expected earnings growth for the MSCI China index is 12.3% this year, with the CSI 300 expected to grow by 18%, suggesting potential benchmark targets of 100 and 5200 for these indices [3]. Group 3: Real Estate and Consumer Market Insights - The ratio of residential property value to GDP in China is 1.8 times as of the end of 2025, lower than the historical median of 2 times since 1998, indicating room for stabilization in the real estate market [3]. - The cost of purchasing homes has significantly decreased compared to 2021, and there are signs of policy easing in first-tier cities that could stabilize property prices and boost consumer spending [3]. - China's household consumption market is valued at $7 trillion, with a decrease in household debt to GDP ratio from 62% in 2021 to 59.4% by the end of 2025, indicating a healthier financial environment for consumers [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Key Sectors - Key investment sectors identified include technology, consumer goods, and exports, with a focus on AI and its ongoing growth potential [5]. - The essential consumer sector is noted for its low valuations compared to markets in the U.S., Japan, and India, with a focus on the food and beverage industry, which is seen as undervalued and having room for innovation [5]. - Other themes to watch in 2026 include export stocks, the impact of reducing excessive competition on profitability, and AI infrastructure developments that have not yet been fully priced in [5].

每经编辑｜杜宇 当地时间2月5日，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指下跌592.58点，跌幅1.20%；纳指跌1.59%；标普500指数跌1.23%。 热门科技股普跌，超微电脑、高通跌超8%，亚马逊跌超4%，AMD跌超3%，特斯拉跌超2%，英伟达跌超1%。 微软跌4.95%，市值一夜蒸发1524亿美元（约合人民币10573亿元）。 | 微软 | | | --- | --- | | MSFT us 空 | | | 408.300 昨收 414.190 量比 0.98 393.670 - | | | 392.330 市值 2.92万亿 换 0.90% | | | -20.520 -4.95% 开 407.440 市盈™ 24.51 额 262.24亿 | | | 异动解读：评级下调+云业务增长放缓+软件... ● × 1.7 16. | | | 盘后 391.070 - -2.600 -- -0.66% 0 0 17:12 美东时间 | | | 盘中 × 1 日Ｋ × 周Ｋ × 月Ｋ × 五日 × | 更多▼ | | 时间05:00 均价:398.905 最新393.670 涨幅-4.954% | | | 436.050 ...