油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员： ...

在发布环节，研究中心总结了9月全国碳市场的运行情况：第一，价格方面，本月CEA的日均收盘价为 62.94元/吨，相较于8月的日均收盘价71.12元/吨大幅下降11.5%。本月碳价呈震荡下行走势，从月初的 69.41元/吨逐步走低至月末的59.16元/吨，跌下60元价格平台。第二，成交量方面，本月碳配额日均成 交量为136.78万吨，相较8月的71.95万吨增加约90%。本月市场交易的活跃度和稳定均明显提升，四分 之三的交易日成交量破百万吨，单日成交最高峰为9月26日的318.29万吨，反映出履约期将近的碳市场 交投热度大幅跃升。 据研究中心介绍，9月份，全球主要碳市场成交量整体回升，韩国碳市场出现下跌。同时，全球主要碳 市场月内走势分化，成交价环比涨跌不一。 研究中心模型计算得出，2025年10月全国碳排放配额(CEA)的买入价格预期为55.39元/吨，卖出价格预 期为60.63元/吨，中间价为58.00元/吨；买入价格指数为138.48，下跌19.09%；卖出价格指数为136.80， 下跌16.23%；中间价格指数为137.57，下跌17.64%。2025年12月全国碳排放配额(CEA)的买入价格预期 为6 ...

《全国碳市场发展报告（2025）》透露，下一步，中国将坚持碳市场作为控制温室气体排放政策工具的 基本定位，持续完善全国碳市场相关政策配套制度，分阶段、有步骤扩大碳排放权交易市场覆盖行业范 围和温室气体自愿减排交易市场支持领域，不断丰富全国碳市场交易品种、交易主体、交易方式，营造 更加公平公开透明的市场环境，努力实现碳排放资源配置效率最优化和效益最大化。同时，中国还将进 一步深化多领域多渠道气候务实合作，加强与相关国家、地区和国际组织在碳市场领域技术、方法、标 准等方面的互认，推动基于自愿减排交易的双边和多边合作，加快建成更加有效、更有活力、更具国际 影响力的碳市场。 （文章来源：证券时报网） "本月碳市场的交易活跃度明显提升，四分之三交易日成交量破百万吨，反映出履约期将近的碳市场交 投热度大幅跃升。"复旦大学可持续发展研究中心表示。 业内普遍预计，碳价仍将继续下行。复旦大学可持续发展研究中心发布的最新碳价指数显示，2025年10 月，CEA买入价格预期为55.39元/吨，卖出价格预期为60.63元/吨，中间价为58.00元/吨；买入价格指数 为138.48，下跌19.09%；卖出价格指数为136.80，下跌1 ...

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for September 2025, indicating a buy price expectation of 68.46 CNY/ton and a sell price expectation of 72.38 CNY/ton for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) [1] - The buy price index for CEA decreased by 3.92% to 171.15, while the sell price index fell by 4.81% to 163.31, resulting in a mid-price index drop of 4.38% to 167.03 [1] - The prices for three types of domestic green certificates (GEC) produced in 2024 and 2025 showed a comprehensive decline, with biomass power generation certificates experiencing the largest drop [1] Group 2 - In August, the average closing price for CEA was 71.39 CNY/ton, down approximately 3% from July's average of 73.57 CNY/ton, indicating a downward trend in carbon prices [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances increased by about 9% to 55.26 million tons compared to July, with market trading stability improving significantly [2] - The release of the "Opinions" by the Central Committee and the State Council on August 25 aims to enhance the national carbon market, promoting a unified market and optimizing resource allocation efficiency [2][3]

Group 1 - The national carbon market closed at 72.43 yuan/ton on August 1, showing a slight decrease of 0.07% from the previous day, and a decline of 3.39% from the end of June [1] - In July, the total trading volume of carbon emission allowances (CEA) was 11.6642 million tons, representing a significant decrease of 26.57% month-on-month, with the average daily trading volume dropping by 35.75% compared to June [1] - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center noted that the carbon price fluctuated downwards in July, narrowing the price range from 74.28 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 72.33 yuan/ton by the end [1] Group 2 - The Fudan Carbon Price Index forecasts that by August 2025, the expected buying price for CEA will be 71.25 yuan/ton, while the selling price is expected to be 76.04 yuan/ton, with a midpoint of 73.65 yuan/ton [2] - As of July, the national carbon market has cumulatively traded 6.811 billion tons, with a total transaction value of 46.823 billion yuan [2] - The carbon market is set to expand in 2025 to include industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with new trading methods introduced [2] Group 3 - The Chairman of the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange stated that efforts will continue to enhance the development and improvement of the national carbon emission trading market mechanisms [3]

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for August 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices and China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) prices [1] - The expected buy price for CEA in August 2025 is 71.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 76.04 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.65 CNY/ton [1] - The expected buy price for CCER in August 2025 is 76.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.59 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 79.91 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The research center also published green certificate prices for centralized projects, distributed projects, and biomass power generation for 2024 and 2025 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 7.82 CNY/unit, while distributed projects are expected to be 6.94 CNY/unit, and biomass power generation is expected to be 6.77 CNY/unit [2] - Compared to July 2025, the prices of green certificates for 2024 and 2025 show mixed trends, with some prices increasing and others decreasing [2] Group 3 - In July, the average closing price for CEA was 73.64 CNY/ton, an increase of approximately 3% compared to June's average of 71.51 CNY/ton [3] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in July was 51.03 million tons, a decrease of 35.75% from June's 79.42 million tons, ending a four-month increase in trading volume [3] - Despite the decrease in trading volume, it remains at a high level, showing a year-on-year increase of nearly 236%, indicating enhanced trading activity in the national carbon emissions trading market [3]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for August 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, CCER prices, and GEC prices [1][2]. Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Prices - The expected buy price for the CEA in August 2025 is 71.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 76.04 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.65 CNY/ton. The buy price index increased by 0.83% to 178.13, while the sell price index decreased by 0.82% to 171.57 [2][3]. - For December 2025, the expected buy price is 72.04 CNY/ton, sell price is 79.61 CNY/ton, and midpoint price is 75.82 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 134.78, and the sell price index is 136.65 [2][3]. Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Prices - The expected buy price for CCER in August 2025 is 76.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.59 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 79.91 CNY/ton. The buy price index rose by 2.49% to 191.68, and the sell price index increased by 3.45% to 201.08 [2][3]. Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) Prices - The expected prices for GECs in August 2025 show a divergence in trends. For 2024 production, centralized project GECs are priced at 3.50 CNY/unit, distributed project GECs at 3.36 CNY/unit, and biomass power generation GECs at 3.66 CNY/unit. For 2025 production, prices are 7.82 CNY/unit for centralized projects, 6.94 CNY/unit for distributed projects, and 6.77 CNY/unit for biomass [4][5]. Market Trends - In July, the average closing price for CEA was 73.64 CNY/ton, up approximately 3% from June's average of 71.51 CNY/ton. However, the trading volume decreased by 35.75% to an average of 51.03 million tons compared to June [6]. - The global carbon market showed mixed trends, with the EU carbon market's average price rising slightly, while the UK market saw a significant drop in trading volume [9].

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for July 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) price indices and China Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) price index [1] - The expected buy price for national carbon emission allowances in July 2025 is 70.67 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 76.67 yuan/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.67 yuan/ton [1] - The buy price index increased by 3.37% to 176.66, while the sell price index rose by 2.52% to 172.98, and the midpoint price index increased by 2.93% to 174.73 [1] Group 2 - In June, the carbon price continued to rise, starting from 68.34 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and reaching 76.57 yuan/ton by the end, with a monthly increase of over 12% [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances in June was 781,000 tons, a 43.1% increase compared to May's 545,800 tons [2] - Global carbon markets showed varied performance in June, with different trading volumes and price trends across major carbon markets, and New Zealand's carbon market experienced the largest month-on-month price increase [2]

Core Insights - The average closing price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) in May was 70.30 yuan/ton, representing a decline of approximately 13% compared to April's average closing price of 80.87 yuan/ton [1] - The carbon price in May exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, starting from 71.35 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and gradually decreasing to a monthly low of 67.91 yuan/ton by the end of May [1] - As of the end of May, the national carbon emission allowance price has decreased by 35% from the historical peak of 106.02 yuan/ton recorded in November of the previous year, with a decline of about 30% occurring since the beginning of this year [1]

Group 1: Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) and Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Price Indices - The expected buy price for CEA in June 2025 is 68.36 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 74.78 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 71.57 CNY/ton. The buy price index decreased by 12.77%, and the sell price index decreased by 9.54% [2] - The expected buy price for CCER in June 2025 is 82.84 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 92.74 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 87.79 CNY/ton. The buy price index decreased by 3.37%, and the sell price index decreased by 6.18% [2] Group 2: Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) Price Indices - The price indices for GECs for 2024 and 2025 show an overall increase. The expected price for centralized projects in 2025 is 6.85 CNY/unit, with a price index of 124.55, while for distributed projects, it is 6.40 CNY/unit with a price index of 129.86 [3] - The price for biomass power generation GEC in 2025 is expected to be 6.16 CNY/unit, with a price index of 119.43. The price increases for 2025 production GECs are significantly higher than those for 2024 production [3] Group 3: Market Activity and Regulatory Developments - In May, the average closing price for CEA was 70.30 CNY/ton, down approximately 13% from April's average of 80.87 CNY/ton. The trading volume increased significantly, with an average daily transaction volume of 57.97 million tons, doubling from April [5] - The draft of the Ecological Environment Law, which includes provisions for establishing a carbon market trading system, is currently under review. This law aims to strengthen the control of greenhouse gas emissions and support the operation of carbon markets [6][7] Group 4: Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market showed mixed trends in May, with varying transaction volumes across different markets. The EU carbon market saw a 24.11% decrease in average daily transaction volume, while the UK market increased by 5.03% [8] - Carbon prices in major global markets generally increased, with the EU market rising by 9.44%, the UK market by 14.43%, and the Korean market by 4.71% [8]