Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price indices for March 2026, including the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) price index, the national CCER price index, and the Chinese Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) price index [1] CEA and CCER Price Indices - The expected buy price for the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) in March 2026 is 74.73 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 82.83 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 72.78 CNY/ton. The buy price index increased by 3.12%, while the sell price index decreased by 1.03%, and the midpoint price index fell by 6.80% [2][3] - For December 2026, the expected buy price for CEA is 84.47 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 94.25 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 89.36 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 158.04, and the sell price index is 161.77, with a midpoint price index of 159.99 [2][3] - The expected buy price for the national certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) in March 2026 is 76.40 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 84.80 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 80.60 CNY/ton. The buy price index rose by 6.41%, the sell price index increased by 1.19%, and the midpoint price index grew by 3.60% [2][3] GEC Price Indices - The expected prices for the three types of domestic green certificates (GEC) for 2025 production are as follows: centralized project price is 7.32 CNY/certificate (index 133.09), distributed project price is 7.15 CNY/certificate (index 145.07), and biomass power generation price is 6.85 CNY/certificate (index 132.75) [4][5] - The price trends for the three types of green certificates show divergence, with the distributed project certificates continuing to rise by 1.4%, while centralized and biomass project certificates experienced a decline [4] Carbon Market Overview - In February, the national carbon market exhibited a stable price with reduced trading volume. The average closing price for CEA was 79.57 CNY/ton, up approximately 2.33% from January's average of 77.76 CNY/ton. The market showed high-level fluctuations, with prices ranging between 76 and 81 CNY/ton [6] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in February was 24.57 million tons, a significant decrease of about 55% compared to January's 54.68 million tons. Despite the overall reduction in trading volume, there were days with higher trading volumes, indicating ongoing adjustments by companies [6] Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market in February showed a general decline in trading volumes, with the EU carbon market experiencing a 37.15% increase in daily trading volume, while the UK and Korea markets saw declines of 25.74% and 3.65%, respectively [7] - Price trends varied across carbon markets, with the EU market's price dropping from 96.66 USD/ton to 82.25 USD/ton (a cumulative decrease of 14.91%), while the Korean market saw an increase from 8.47 USD/ton to 8.89 USD/ton (a cumulative increase of 4.98%) [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 26, 2026) [1] - Release Date: February 10, 2026 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - CEA price fluctuates in a narrow range, with shrinking trading volume and turnover, and reduced participation. The price is above the short - and medium - term moving averages, showing a strong trend [4] - CCER price is stable and slightly strong, with a decline in trading volume. Recently, some sellers plan to sign large - scale long - term contracts [5] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Relevant Work of the National Carbon Emission Trading Market in 2026", determining the time points for the pre - allocation and verification of quotas for the existing four major industries [5] Group 4: Market Quotes CEA - Today, the listed volume is 33,000 tons, and the bulk volume is 400,000 tons. The average listed trading price is 80.54 yuan/ton (-0.10%) [4] - For different years' CEA, the closing prices range from 74.00 to 81.00 yuan/ton, with most having a 0.00% daily change except CEA25 with -0.07%. The total trading volume of CEA23 is 760,000 tons, CEA24 is 500,000 tons, and CEA25 is 4.2 million tons. The total trading amount of CEA23 is 33.05 million yuan, CEA24 is 620,000 yuan, and CEA25 is 400,000 yuan [7][8] CCER - The listed agreement trading volume is 10,000 tons, and the average trading price is 87.99 yuan/ton (1.28%) [4] - The trading volume is 10,000 tons, the average trading price is 87.99 yuan/ton, the trading amount is 881,700 yuan, the daily increase is 1.28%, and the premium rate is 9.25% [8]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for February 2026, indicating expected buy and sell prices for carbon emission allowances and certified voluntary emission reductions [1][2]. Carbon Emission Allowances (CEA) - The expected buy price for CEA in February 2026 is 72.47 CNY/ton, while the sell price is projected at 83.69 CNY/ton, with a midpoint price of 78.09 CNY/ton [1]. - The buy price index for CEA is 181.18, reflecting a 9.59% increase, and the sell price index is 188.83, showing a 12.88% rise, with the midpoint price index at 185.22, up by 11.35% [1]. Certified Voluntary Emission Reductions (CCER) - The expected buy price for CCER in February 2026 is 71.80 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.80 CNY/ton and a midpoint price of 77.80 CNY/ton [1]. - The buy price index for CCER is 180.49, up by 8.13%, while the sell price index is 201.59, increasing by 7.99%, and the midpoint price index is 191.27, reflecting an 8.06% rise [1]. Green Electricity Certificates (GEC) - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 7.38 CNY/unit, with a price index of 134.18; for distributed projects, the price is 7.05 CNY/unit and a price index of 143.04; and for biomass power generation, the price is 7.04 CNY/unit with a price index of 136.43 [2]. - All three categories of green certificates have seen price increases compared to January 2026, with biomass power generation certificates experiencing the highest increase of 53% [2]. Market Performance - In January, the average closing price for CEA was 77.54 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 22.55% compared to December 2025 [3]. - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in January was 62.97 million tons, a decrease of nearly 70% from December, indicating reduced market activity following compliance deadlines [3]. - Globally, carbon markets experienced a decline in trading volumes, with notable drops in the UK and South Korea, while prices remained relatively stable across most markets [3].

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for January 2026, indicating a buy price expectation of 66.13 CNY/ton and a sell price expectation of 74.14 CNY/ton for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) [1] - The expected buy price for CEA in December 2026 is projected to be 70.32 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 85.36 CNY/ton, reflecting an upward trend in carbon pricing [1] - The buy price index for January 2026 is 165.33, while the sell price index is 167.28, indicating a stable market outlook [1] Group 2 - The research center reported that the price of green certificates for centralized projects, distributed projects, and biomass power generation in 2025 is expected to rise, with centralized project certificates priced at 5.93 CNY/unit, an increase of over 25% [2] - The price index for distributed project green certificates is 113.83, while biomass power generation certificates are priced at 4.6 CNY/unit, showing a significant increase across all categories [2] - The price ranking from highest to lowest remains centralized project certificates, distributed project certificates, and biomass power generation certificates [2] Group 3 - In December, the average closing price of CEA was 61.83 CNY/ton, a notable increase of approximately 3.27% compared to November's average closing price of 59.87 CNY/ton [3] - The trading volume for carbon allowances in December averaged 201.28 million tons, a decrease of 15.7% from November's 238.77 million tons, yet the market remained active with significant trading days [3] - The highest single-day trading volume was recorded on December 23, reaching 357.39 million tons, indicating robust market activity despite the overall decline in average volume [3]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index results for January 2026, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] CEA and CCER Price Summary - The expected buy price for CEA in January 2026 is 66.13 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 74.14 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint of 70.13 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 165.33, and the sell price index is 167.28, with a midpoint index of 166.34 [2] - For December 2026, the expected buy price for CEA is 70.32 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 85.36 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint of 77.84 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 131.56, and the sell price index is 146.52, with a midpoint index of 139.36 [2] - The expected buy price for CCER in January 2026 is 66.40 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 77.60 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint of 72.00 CNY/ton. The buy price index increased by 12.54% to 166.92, and the sell price index increased by 11.81% to 186.67, with a midpoint index increase of 12.15% to 177.01 [2] GEC Price Index Summary - The price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 production is expected to be 5.93 CNY/unit, with a price index of 107.82. For distributed projects, the price is 5.61 CNY/unit (index 113.83), and for biomass power generation, the price is 4.6 CNY/unit (index 89.15). All three categories saw price increases exceeding 25%, with centralized projects showing the highest increase [3] National Carbon Market Activity - In December, the average closing price for CEA was 61.83 CNY/ton, up approximately 3.27% from November's average of 59.87 CNY/ton. The carbon price showed a trend of stabilization followed by a significant rise, reaching above 70 CNY/ton after eight consecutive days of increases [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in December was 201.28 million tons, down 15.7% from November's 238.77 million tons. Despite the decrease, the market remained active, with half of the trading days exceeding 2 million tons, peaking at 357.39 million tons on December 23 [4] Global Carbon Market Overview - The global carbon market in December showed varied trends, with the EU and Korean markets experiencing a recovery, while the UK market saw a significant decline. The EU's average daily trading volume increased by 2.19%, while the UK's dropped by 90.39% [5] - The EU carbon market's price rose from 96.24 USD/ton to 101.36 USD/ton, a cumulative increase of 5.31%. The UK market's price increased from 75.01 USD/ton to 87.42 USD/ton, a cumulative increase of 16.55%. In contrast, the Korean market's price fell from 7.35 USD/ton to 6.90 USD/ton, a cumulative decrease of 6.12% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since June this year, the national carbon quota price has been declining, and the current comprehensive price has dropped to around 50 yuan/ton, similar to the opening price in 2021 and over 50% lower than the peak in 2024. As the compliance period approaches, the spot price has rebounded. The optimal carry - forward rate is about 40%, and surplus enterprises can carry forward 60% of their surplus quotas to 2025, but need to apply before June 10, 2026 [9]. - According to the Fudan Carbon Index Research Center's model, in November 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 47.59 yuan/ton, the selling price is 55.42 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 51.51 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price is 55.63 yuan/ton, the selling price is 65.35 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 60.50 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 59.67 yuan/ton, the selling price is 68.17 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 63.92 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In October, the highest price of the national carbon market composite price was 59.30 yuan/ton, the lowest was 50.34 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 51.96 yuan/ton, a 10.37% decrease from the same period last month. The trading volume of the listed agreement transaction was 10522.58 million tons, with a turnover of 487.1171 million yuan; the trading volume of the bulk agreement transaction was 3093.67 million tons, with a turnover of 1496.84425 billion yuan; the trading volume of the one - way auction was 10,000 tons, with a turnover of 4.475 million yuan [8]. - In the second week of November, the highest price of the national carbon market quota was 62.48 yuan/ton, the lowest was 57.72 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 60.17 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.12%. The trading volume of the listed agreement transaction was 614.79 million tons, with a turnover of 377.6497 million yuan; the trading volume of the bulk agreement transaction was 1062.71 million tons, with a turnover of 629.8574 million yuan; there was no one - way auction this week. The total trading volume of the national carbon emission quota this week was 1677.50 million tons, and the total turnover was 100.7507 million yuan [9]. 3.2 Market News - Recently, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low - Carbon Transformation and Strengthening the Construction of the Carbon Market", aiming to expand the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market, implement quota total control and paid allocation, gradually tighten quotas, accelerate the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market, and improve the vitality of the national carbon market [11]. - At the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) in Brazil on November 11, Li Gao, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, stated that the carbon market has no unified standard model, and China will explore a carbon market system suitable for its national conditions. In the future, it will gradually implement quota total control and paid allocation [11]. - On November 13, Tu Guangshao said at the Taihu World Cultural Forum · Qiantang Dialogue that the carbon market has given rise to the form of carbon assets, and the inclusion of carbon assets in the balance sheet is of great significance in promoting the optimization of the green and low - carbon ecological system. Although the progress of carbon asset inclusion in the balance sheet in China shows a good momentum, the number of enterprises including carbon assets in the balance sheet is still insufficient [11]. 3.3 Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided, only the titles of two figures "Electricity Generation Year - on - Year Growth Rate (%)" and "Newly Installed Photovoltaic Capacity" are given [12]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a carbon market weekly report dated November 07, 2025, from the Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3] Group 2: Carbon Market Weekly Summary - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a high of 59.30 yuan/ton, a low of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 10,525,810 tons and 487,117,084.12 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, they were 30,936,720 tons and 1,496,842,246.87 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,475,000 yuan [7] - In the first week of November, the comprehensive price had a high of 58.51 yuan/ton, a low of 51.54 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 57.79 yuan/ton, up 11.22% from the previous Friday. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 3,981,155 tons and 209,744,110.26 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, 5,154,502 tons and 248,501,748.01 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,894,850 yuan. The total trading volume and turnover were 9,235,657 tons and 463,140,708.27 yuan [7] - Since June this year, the national carbon quota price has been declining. The current price is around 50 yuan/ton, similar to the opening price in 2021 and over 50% lower than the 2024 high. The new policy aims to solve the problem of enterprises' reluctance to sell. The current low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rule. The price may stabilize after the selling pressure eases in November [8] - According to the Fudan Carbon Index, in November 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 47.59 yuan/ton, the selling price is 55.42 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 51.51 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price is 55.63 yuan/ton, the selling price is 65.35 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 60.50 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 59.67 yuan/ton, the selling price is 68.17 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 63.92 yuan/ton [8][9] Group 3: Market News - On October 23, the National Energy Administration reported that in September, the全社会 electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, up 4.5% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, up 4.6% year - on - year. The third - quarter electricity consumption was 2.9 trillion kWh, driven by high - temperature in July and the recovery of the macro - economy [10] - On October 24, it was announced that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, build a new energy system, and implement the dual - control system of carbon emission volume and intensity. It aims to reach about 4.5 billion tons of bulk solid waste utilization by 2030 and save over 150 million tons of standard coal in key industries, reducing about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10] - Recently, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion to expand the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market to mainly cover industrial emission industries by 2027, implement quota control and paid distribution, gradually tighten quotas, strengthen the synergy between the carbon market and industrial policies, and accelerate the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market [10] Group 4: Market Data - There are figures about the national carbon market price trend, pilot carbon market price, power generation year - on - year growth rate, and new power generation equipment year - on - year growth rate, with data sources from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [6][7][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The national carbon market price is under pressure and fluctuating. The current low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rule, and the price may stabilize after the selling pressure subsides in November [4][8] - Policies such as expanding the coverage of the national carbon market, implementing quota control and有偿分配, and strengthening the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market are expected to promote the development of the carbon market and the green - low - carbon transformation of industries [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Carbon Market Overview - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a maximum of 59.30 yuan/ton, a minimum of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The total trading volume of national carbon emission allowances was 41,562,530 tons, with a total turnover of 1,988,434,330.99 yuan. From January 1 to October 31, 2025, the trading volume was 139,661,332 tons, and the turnover was 8,785,796,587.81 yuan. The carbon price has been declining since June and is now close to the 2021 opening price, more than 50% lower than the 2024 high [8] - According to the latest regulations, surplus enterprises can carry over 60% of their surplus allowances to 2025 by December 31, 2025, but need to apply before June 10, 2026 [8] - Fudan Carbon Index predicts the buying, selling, and middle prices of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and Chinese Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) for November and December 2025 [9] 3.2 Market News - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2%. In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The high electricity consumption in the third quarter was due to high - temperature weather and economic recovery [10] - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to accelerate the green - low - carbon transformation of energy, including developing non - fossil energy, promoting the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, and promoting the green - low - carbon transformation of industries and lifestyles. Energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions in key industries are expected to save over 150 million tons of standard coal and reduce about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10] - The "Opinions on Promoting Green - Low - Carbon Transformation and Strengthening Carbon Market Construction" aims to expand the coverage of the national carbon market, implement quota control and 有偿分配, tighten quotas, strengthen the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market, and improve the vitality of the national carbon market [10] 3.3 Data Summary - The report provides multiple data charts, including the EU carbon price, power generation equipment growth rate, power generation growth rate, photovoltaic installation volume, and coal power plant daily consumption, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][19]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for November 2025, indicating a significant decline in carbon emission allowance prices and green certificate prices [1][2]. Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Prices - The expected buy price for the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) in November 2025 is 47.59 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 55.42 yuan/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 51.51 yuan/ton. The buy price index decreased by 14.08%, and the sell price index decreased by 8.59% [1]. - For December 2025, the expected buy price is 55.63 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 65.35 yuan/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 60.50 yuan/ton [1]. Green Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 4.24 yuan/unit, with a price index of 77.09. For distributed projects, the price is 3.65 yuan/unit (index 74.06), and for biomass power generation, it is 3.81 yuan/unit (index 73.84) [2]. - All green certificate prices showed a decline compared to October 2025, with biomass power generation certificates experiencing the largest drop [2]. Market Performance Overview - In October, the average closing price for CEA was 54.76 yuan/ton, down 12.4% from September's average of 62.51 yuan/ton. The carbon price exhibited a significant drop followed by a slight rebound [2]. - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances was 1.7214 million tons, an increase of 15.81% compared to September's 1.4864 million tons, indicating active market trading as the compliance period approaches [2]. Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market saw an overall increase in trading volume in October, although the Korean carbon market experienced a slight decline. The price trends varied across major global carbon markets, with mixed performance in trading prices [3].

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price indices for November 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] CEA and CCER Price Indices - The expected buying price for CEA in November 2025 is 47.59 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 55.42 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 51.51 CNY/ton; the buying price index decreased by 14.08% and the selling price index decreased by 8.59% [2] - The expected buying price for CCER in November 2025 is 59.67 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 68.17 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 63.92 CNY/ton; the buying price index decreased by 13.52% and the selling price index decreased by 11.27% [2] GEC Price Indices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2024 is 2.94 CNY/unit, while for distributed projects it is 2.26 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation it is 1.31 CNY/unit; all show a decline compared to October 2025 [3] - For 2025, the expected price for centralized projects is 4.24 CNY/unit, for distributed projects it is 3.65 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation it is 3.81 CNY/unit, with price differences among types of green certificates widening [3] October Market Performance - In October, the average closing price for CEA was 54.76 CNY/ton, down 12.4% from September's average of 62.51 CNY/ton; the market showed a significant drop followed by a slight rebound [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in October was 172.14 million tons, an increase of 15.81% compared to September's 148.64 million tons, indicating active trading as the compliance period approaches [4] Global Carbon Market Overview - The global carbon market saw an overall increase in trading volume in October, with the EU carbon market's average daily trading volume rising by 7.91% and the UK market by 34.43%, while the Korean market saw a slight decline of 1.06% [5] - Price movements varied across global markets, with the EU carbon market price increasing by 1.64%, while the UK and Korean markets experienced declines of 0.82% and 3.30%, respectively [6]