Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On October 30, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures 2601 rose slightly and then gave back some of the previous day's gains [7] - The closing prices of coke J2601 and coking coal JM2601 were 1786.5 yuan/ton and 1288 yuan/ton respectively, with daily price changes of -0.59% and -1.62% [5] - The KDJ indicator of the coke 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to rise, showing a potential dead - cross. The MACD red bar of the coke 2601 contract narrowed, while that of the coking coal 2601 contract continued to expand slightly [10] - The spot prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao, Qingdao, and Tianjin ports remained unchanged at 1570 yuan/ton. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Handan increased by 50 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable [10] 1.2 Future Outlook - Policy: On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a new draft of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with stricter replacement ratio requirements. Tangshan planned a 30% blast furnace production limit from October 27 for 4 days due to environmental protection [11] - Fundamentals: Recent coke production from independent coking enterprises and steel producers has declined. Coke inventories at ports and independent coking enterprises are generally low, leading to a demand for the third round of price increases, expected to be implemented by the end of the month. Cold weather in northern regions and stricter coal mine safety inspections have pushed up coal prices. Coking coal port inventories are low, and although imports have recovered, the January - September imports are still down by over 6% year - on - year, causing a significant jump in coking coal spot prices [11] - Outlook: Coke and coking coal futures are expected to continue their upward trend, supported by positive news and the spot market. After a short - term sharp rebound, there may be a phased correction, but the overall upward trend is difficult to reverse. Future attention should be paid to the impact of rising temperatures on coal demand and the positive cycle effect of steel market profit recovery on the coal - coke market [12] 2. Industry News - Sino - US Trade: On October 30, the US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% tariff for another year. Both sides will suspend relevant export control measures for one year and reach consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation and expanding agricultural product trade [13] - Carbon Market: The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will accelerate the construction of the national carbon market, including expanding the coverage, implementing quota control and paid distribution, tightening quotas, and promoting the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market [14] - Steel Company Performance: In Q3 2025, Baosteel's revenue was 81.064 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.83%, and net profit was 3.081 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 130.31%. Shagang's revenue was 3.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.66%, and net profit was 75.5324 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5518.37%. Shandong Steel's revenue was 18.022 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.74%, and net profit was 127 million yuan [14] - Coal Company Performance: In Q3 2025, Shanxi Coking Coal's revenue was 9.122 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20.84%, and net profit was 420 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 52.24%. Lu'an Huanneng's revenue was 7.031 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.83%, and net profit was 206 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 63.96%. Shaanxi Coal's revenue was 40.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20.91%, and net profit was 5.075 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 26.59%. Dayou Energy reported a loss of 1.122 billion yuan in the first three quarters [14] - Other News: Vietnam launched an anti - circumvention investigation on Chinese hot - rolled coils; Australia and Thailand launched anti - dumping and anti - circumvention investigations on Chinese steel products; the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1; Anglo American's metallurgical coal production in Q3 2025 was 1.884 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%; Glencore's coal production from January - September 2025 was 98.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.6%; the US imposed new sanctions on Russian oil companies [13][15][16] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, national daily average hot metal production, coke and coking coal inventories at ports, coking plants, and steel mills, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [18][22][23][30][32]

Core Points - The national carbon emissions trading market will gradually shift from intensity control to total control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a goal to cover major industrial emission sectors by 2027 [1][2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment aims to expand the coverage of the national carbon emissions trading market and implement total quota control and paid allocation [1][2] - The inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries in the carbon emissions trading market is expected to enhance corporate responsibility for emissions reduction [2][4] Summary by Sections Carbon Market Development - The central government has issued its first document on carbon market construction, demonstrating a strong commitment to addressing climate change [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will accelerate the establishment of the national carbon market and expand its coverage to major emission industries by 2027 [1][2] Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The development of a voluntary emission reduction trading market is being expedited, with a focus on creating a comprehensive methodological system to support social voluntary reductions [2][5] - As of October 28, the voluntary emission reduction trading market has registered 31 projects and achieved a total transaction volume of 3.25 million tons, with a transaction value of 270 million yuan [5] Industry Impact - Since the launch of the national carbon market, the power generation sector has established internal carbon management systems, leading to reduced emissions costs by approximately 35 billion yuan during the first two compliance periods [4] - The diversification of industry participants following the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum is expected to facilitate cross-industry resource allocation and lower overall emissions reduction costs [4]

Core Insights - The construction of the carbon market is accelerating, with a maturing institutional framework [1][3] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - In two months, 13 new methodologies for the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market (CCER) have been released for public consultation, indicating a significant push in top-level design [2][3] - The rapid expansion of methodologies signifies that the core institutional system of the national voluntary carbon market is being improved, providing clearer policy expectations and a more stable trading environment [3] Group 2: Climate Governance Expansion - The newly released methodologies cover a wide range of areas, focusing on deep energy savings in public buildings, biomass cogeneration, and the recovery of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, reflecting a shift from single-point to multi-point climate governance [4] - China's new round of national contributions aims for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, indicating a broader scope of climate governance beyond just carbon emissions [4] Group 3: Valuation of Ecological Products - The CCER methodologies have quantified carbon sink benefits into tradable products, with cumulative trading volume exceeding 3.19 million tons and total transaction value surpassing 267 million yuan [5] - The inclusion of coastal salt marshes and seagrass beds in the methodologies fundamentally establishes a pricing mechanism for previously "priceless" ecological resources, facilitating the transformation of ecological assets into economic value [5] Group 4: Economic Incentives for Transitioning Industries - CCER provides crucial economic incentives for projects with significant environmental benefits, helping them overcome initial investment barriers and improve cash flow during transitional phases [6] - For instance, the CCER revenue can significantly enhance the cash flow of biomass power generation projects, supporting the industry's green transition [6] Group 5: International Influence and Standards - China's active participation in the international voluntary carbon market can alter the current dominance of Western countries in rule-making and standard-setting [7] - The release of methodologies in areas like geothermal energy and sulfur hexafluoride recovery positions China as a leader, potentially influencing global standards and enhancing its voice in international climate governance [7]

Core Viewpoint - China has established the world's largest carbon emissions trading market, which is now operating steadily, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions, and is entering a new phase of development [1][2]. Market Development - The national carbon emissions trading market has seen steady progress since its pilot phase began in 2011, with the official launch occurring in 2017, following a phased approach [1][3]. - The cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market reached nearly 700 million tons by the end of August [1]. Policy Framework - The issuance of the "Opinions" document aims to enhance the effectiveness, vitality, and international influence of the national carbon market, while also coordinating with local pilot markets [2][3]. - Key tasks include aligning the national carbon market with the national carbon emission control measures, introducing paid allocation of quotas, and strengthening management of registration and trading institutions [2]. Market Structure - The national carbon market consists of a mandatory carbon market and a voluntary carbon market, which operate independently but complement each other [3][5]. - The mandatory market is expected to control over 70% of national carbon emissions, while the voluntary market can help reduce emissions not covered by the mandatory market [3]. Impact on Enterprises - The carbon market creates a consensus among enterprises that "carbon emissions have costs, and carbon reduction has benefits," allowing companies to manage their emissions more effectively [5][6]. - Companies can purchase carbon allowances at lower prices than their own reduction costs, minimizing operational impacts while incentivizing additional reductions when it is economically beneficial [5]. Regulatory Framework - A multi-level and relatively complete regulatory system for the carbon market has begun to take shape, with over 30 regulations and technical standards established [6][7]. - The upcoming "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading" will clarify responsibilities for companies regarding carbon emissions reporting and compliance [6]. Quota Management - The "Opinions" propose a gradual shift from intensity control to total volume control, prioritizing industries with stable carbon emissions for quota management by 2027 [7]. - Setting total quotas requires careful consideration of national carbon reduction goals and future economic trends [7]. Emission Accounting - Improving the carbon emission accounting system involves ensuring data quality from key emitters and third-party verification agencies, optimizing accounting methods, and enhancing measurement techniques [7][8]. Pricing Mechanism - Factors influencing carbon pricing include national carbon reduction targets and the development of low-carbon technologies [8]. - The pricing mechanism should reflect market dynamics while ensuring effective government regulation through quota allocation and market rules [8].

Core Viewpoint - The carbon market is a crucial policy tool for promoting green and low-carbon transformation in China, with a focus on establishing a robust national carbon market system that includes both mandatory and voluntary carbon markets to achieve the "dual carbon" goals [2][3]. Summary by Sections Carbon Market Development - China has established a national carbon emissions trading market that mandates key emission units to fulfill reduction responsibilities, alongside a voluntary carbon market that encourages self-reduction efforts. These two markets operate independently but are interconnected through a quota management system [4][5]. - As of August 22, 2023, the mandatory carbon market has seen a cumulative transaction volume exceeding 680 million tons, with a transaction value of 47.41 billion yuan. The voluntary carbon market has recorded a cumulative transaction of 2.49 million tons, amounting to 210 million yuan [4]. Future Plans and Roadmap - The "Opinions" document outlines a timeline and roadmap for the development of the national carbon market. By 2027, the mandatory carbon market will expand to cover major industrial sectors, while the voluntary market will broaden its scope to include biomass utilization and solid waste management [6][9]. Quota Management System - A clear and transparent carbon emissions quota management system is essential for the healthy operation of the national carbon trading market. The distribution of quotas will balance reduction targets with economic costs and industry differences, aiming for a stable total carbon emissions control by 2027 [7][8]. Market Vitality and Financial Integration - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to enhance market vitality by collaborating with financial institutions to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions rights. This includes mechanisms like carbon pledges and carbon repurchase agreements to facilitate financing for key emission units [11]. Data Quality and Regulatory Framework - Accurate and reliable carbon emission data is critical for quota trading and compliance. The government is enhancing data quality management through a three-tier review system and utilizing advanced technologies like big data and blockchain to improve regulatory efficiency [9][12]. Systematic Improvement - The construction of the national carbon market is a complex system engineering task that requires a problem-oriented and goal-oriented approach. The focus will be on improving the reliability of data and inclusivity across industries [10].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks the first central document in China's carbon market sector, providing a more comprehensive institutional guarantee and stronger capability support for the national carbon market construction [1][2]. Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market consists of a mandatory carbon emissions trading market and a voluntary carbon emissions trading market, which operate independently but are interconnected through a quota clearing mechanism, achieving full coverage of emission reduction entities [2][4]. - As of August 22, 2023, the mandatory carbon market has seen a cumulative transaction volume of over 680 million tons, with a transaction value of 47.41 billion yuan, while the voluntary carbon market has recorded a cumulative transaction of 2.49 million tons, valued at 21 million yuan [2][4]. Group 2: Future Plans and Roadmap - By 2027, the mandatory carbon market aims to gradually cover major industrial sectors beyond power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, while the voluntary carbon market will expand to include biomass utilization and solid waste treatment [4][5]. - The goal is to establish a transparent and predictable carbon emissions quota management system, balancing emission reduction targets with economic costs and industry differences [5][6]. Group 3: Market Mechanisms and Data Management - The establishment of a quota distribution and clearing system is essential for the healthy and orderly operation of the national carbon emissions trading market [5][6]. - Accurate and reliable carbon emission data is crucial for quota trading and compliance, with ongoing efforts to enhance data quality management through advanced technologies like big data and blockchain [7][8]. Group 4: Enhancing Market Vitality and Management - The ecological environment department plans to collaborate with financial institutions to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions rights and certified voluntary reduction amounts, such as carbon pledges and carbon repurchase policies [9][10]. - Strict regulations on carbon emissions verification and enhanced oversight of data quality are emphasized to combat fraudulent activities [10].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks the first central document in China's carbon market sector, providing a more comprehensive institutional guarantee and stronger capability support for the national carbon market construction [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections National Carbon Market Development - China has established a national carbon emissions trading market for key emission units with mandatory reduction responsibilities and a voluntary carbon market to incentivize social self-reduction. These two markets operate independently but are interconnected through a quota clearing mechanism, achieving full coverage of reduction entities [2][3]. - As of August 22, 2023, the mandatory carbon market has seen a cumulative transaction volume exceeding 680 million tons, with a transaction value of 47.41 billion yuan. The voluntary carbon market has recorded a cumulative transaction of 2.49 million tons of certified voluntary reduction, amounting to 210 million yuan [2]. Timeline and Roadmap - The "Opinions" outline a timeline and roadmap for the national carbon market's development. By 2027, the mandatory carbon market will expand to cover major industrial emission sectors beyond power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting. The voluntary carbon market aims for full coverage of key areas by 2027 and to establish a transparent, unified, and internationally aligned market by 2030 [3][4]. Quota Management System - A clear and transparent carbon emissions quota management system is essential for the healthy and orderly operation of the national carbon trading market. The quota distribution system will balance reduction targets with economic costs and industry differences, implementing total quota control for stable emission sectors by 2027 [4][5]. Development of Voluntary Carbon Market - The government aims to actively develop the national voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market, focusing on key areas and technologies for carbon peak and neutrality. This includes establishing a methodological system for voluntary reduction projects and enhancing market trading systems [6][7]. Market Mechanism Improvement - The construction of the national carbon market is a complex system engineering task that requires a problem-oriented and goal-oriented approach. The focus will be on improving the market mechanism, ensuring data reliability, and enhancing industry inclusiveness [7][8]. Management and Oversight - The ecological environment department will enhance carbon emission verification and strengthen the responsibility of key emission units for carbon accounting and reporting. There will be strict supervision of carbon emission data quality to combat fraudulent activities [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Views - The macro industry data shows that the PMI for August is 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The main raw material purchasing price index increased by 1.8 percentage points compared to last month. The PPI for chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing has seen an expanded decline, while the oil and gas extraction industry remained stable [2][29] - The report highlights that the chemical industry is undergoing a competitive landscape optimization due to tightened policies, with a focus on energy efficiency standards and carbon emission evaluations set to be implemented from September 1, 2025 [2][50] - The report suggests focusing on specific sub-sectors such as SW pesticides, SW fluorochemicals, SW potash fertilizers, SW coal chemicals, SW food and feed additives, and SW oilfield services based on net profit growth rates and PE valuations [2][56] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Data - The PMI for August is 49.4%, up by 0.1 percentage points from last month. The main raw material purchasing price index is at 53.3%, up by 1.8 percentage points. The PPI for chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing is at -6.5%, with an expanded decline of 0.4 percentage points [29] - Fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector has a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.7%, while the chemical fiber manufacturing sector shows an increase of 11.1% [29] Industry Policies - The report discusses the implementation of energy efficiency standards and carbon emission evaluations, which will lead to the elimination of substandard products by the end of 2025 [50][53] - The national carbon market is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity and reshape the market competition landscape [50] Sub-sector Performance - The chemical industry has seen a divergence in performance, with sectors like pesticides, specialty chemicals, and coatings experiencing growth in revenue, profit, and import-export figures, while basic chemicals and fertilizers show mixed results [55][61] - The report emphasizes the importance of adhering to energy efficiency benchmarks for various chemical products, with specific deadlines for compliance [56] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the Penghua CSI Sub-sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF (159870.SZ) as a key investment vehicle [2][19] - It suggests monitoring specific sub-sectors that have shown consistent net profit growth, including SW fluorochemicals and SW potash fertilizers [61]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the growth in the power sector, with a focus on renewable energy and the impact of recent regulatory changes on market dynamics [6][7][10] - The carbon trading market is showing significant activity, with a total transaction volume of 15.1 million tons in the latest month, indicating a robust trading environment [29] - The overall electricity consumption in China reached 10,226 billion kWh in July 2025, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase, with notable growth in various sectors [31][59] Summary by Sections Industry News - The National Energy Administration issued 236 million green certificates in July 2025, with 70.63% being tradable [6] - The first central document on the carbon market was released, outlining a roadmap for its development by 2027 [7] - Regulatory updates in the Central China region aim to enhance the coordination of power systems and market operations [8] Industry Data - The carbon trading market's price fluctuated between 69.23 and 72.68 yuan per ton, with a total transaction value of approximately 1.04 billion yuan [29] - As of July 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.67 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 18.2% [25][37] - The cumulative electricity consumption for the first seven months of 2025 was 58,633 billion kWh, reflecting a 4.5% increase compared to the previous year [31] Performance Analysis - The power sector's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1,036.8 billion yuan, a slight decline of 2.2%, while net profit increased by 2.6% to 107.1 billion yuan [48] - The performance of different segments showed that thermal and hydropower sectors experienced profit growth, while nuclear and renewable energy sectors faced challenges [52][54] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on green electricity as demand is expected to rise due to regulatory support, with key companies like Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy highlighted for potential investment [78] - For thermal power, companies with significant coal exposure and stable long-term contracts are recommended, such as Datang Power and Jingtou Energy [78] - Water and nuclear power sectors are seen as having long-term investment value, with companies like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power recommended [78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The logic of improving solid waste quality and efficiency, along with cash flow enhancement, continues to be realized, while the construction of the national carbon market is strengthened and carbon constraints are tightening [1] - The report highlights the importance of cash flow improvements and dividend increases in the waste incineration sector, driven by reduced capital expenditures and enhanced operational efficiency [39] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection industry is experiencing a stable revenue growth, with the waste incineration sector's revenue reaching 23.2 billion yuan, a 1% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 5.1 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year [10][13] - The report emphasizes the need for a market-oriented approach in water services, predicting significant cash flow improvements similar to those seen in the waste incineration sector [7] Policy Tracking - The central government has issued guidelines to strengthen the national carbon market, aiming for a more comprehensive coverage of industrial sectors and a robust carbon pricing mechanism by 2030 [35][36] - The report suggests that stricter carbon monitoring will increase demand for carbon monitoring equipment, benefiting companies like Snowy Dragon and Juguang Technology [38] Company Performance - **Huanlan Environment**: Achieved a net profit of 966 million yuan in H1 2025, a 28% increase year-on-year, with a significant contribution from its subsidiary [29] - **Green Power**: Reported a 24% increase in net profit in H1 2025, driven by increased waste incineration and operational efficiency [31] - **Haihua Entrepreneurship**: Experienced a 9.33% increase in net profit, with a focus on stable growth in waste disposal and energy generation [31] - **Yongxing Co.**: Increased its waste processing volume, leading to a 9% rise in net profit [32] Cash Flow and Dividends - The waste incineration sector is seeing a significant increase in free cash flow, with projections indicating potential dividend payouts reaching 50% to 150% in the coming years [40][41] - The report notes that companies are beginning to distribute dividends more actively, with Huanlan Environment initiating its first mid-year dividend [24][29]