Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. After dropping below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday, prices rebounded during domestic trading hours. The price of ferronickel continued to climb, with the average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton, and the coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high. Although new projects are put into production in the first quarter, the short - term market circulation is still limited due to a two - month approval process. Benefiting from the news of Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and the macro - environment, nickel prices broke away from the long - term low - level oscillation area, but the oversupply pressure has not been reversed. This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons. Before the final policy is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price movement: On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. They dropped below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday and then rebounded during domestic trading hours [7]. - Price changes of related products: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron on the 19th rose by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high [7]. - Inventory situation: This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons [7]. - Outlook: Before the final policy from Indonesia is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 5: Industry News - Indonesia's production plan: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will use the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) as a strategic tool to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand. The nickel production target is set at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. Adjusting production quotas for nickel and coal aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government says the specific data is still being integrated [8]. - Suspension of nickel mining by Vale Indonesia: Due to the unapproved 2026 Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business. However, management expects the license to be approved soon, and this temporary suspension will not affect the long - term operational sustainability of the joint venture. The delay only temporarily affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, while the Sorowako mining area and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - Nickel ore demand in Indonesia: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 is about 340 - 350 million tons [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: Tight supply and demand of intermediate product MHP, strong new energy demand support nickel prices; spot trading is fair, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has widened, and the market's purchasing sentiment is stable [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Stainless steel is in the off - season of demand, nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and terminal procurement is cautious; domestic social inventory has increased significantly week - on - week, and supply pressure is significant [3]. - **Trading Consultation Viewpoint**: In the short term, the bearish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and the downward price space is supported by costs. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest value of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,380 yuan/ton, down 1,370 yuan (-1.17%) week - on - week; SHFE nickel continuous - one is 115,380 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan (-1.45%); SHFE nickel continuous - two is 115,580 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan (-1.45%); SHFE nickel continuous - three is 115,940 yuan/ton, down 1,570 yuan (-1.45%); LME nickel 3M is 14,455 dollars/ton, down 425 dollars (-1.34%) [4]. - **Nickel Futures Positions and Volume**: The position volume is 152,848 lots, an increase of 45,507 lots (42.4%); the trading volume is 124,692 lots, an increase of 21,777 lots (21.16%); the warrant number is 34,079 tons, a decrease of 948 tons (-2.71%); the basis of the main contract is 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 270 yuan (69.23%) [4]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The latest value of stainless steel main contract is 12,285 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan (-1%); stainless steel continuous - one is 12,285 yuan/ton, unchanged; stainless steel continuous - two is 12,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (-0.24%); stainless steel continuous - three is 12,415 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (-0.48%) [5]. - **Stainless Steel Futures Positions and Volume**: The trading volume is 119,724 lots, a decrease of 17,389 lots (-12.68%); the position volume is 192,398 lots, an increase of 19,670 lots (11.39%); the warrant number is 65,340 tons, a decrease of 5,025 tons (-7.14%); the basis of the main contract is 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan (-0.72%) [5]. - **Nickel Spot Prices**: Jinchuan nickel is 120,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan (0.50%); imported nickel is 116,600 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan (0.52%); 1 electrolytic nickel is 118,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan (0.51%); nickel beans are 118,550 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan (0.51%); electrowon nickel is 116,350 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan (0.56%) [5]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social inventory is 53,114 tons, an increase of 3,981 tons; LME nickel inventory is 254,172 tons, a decrease of 1,674 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 940 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 30,225 tons, an increase of 661 tons [7]. Charts and Data Sources - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Price Trends**: The report provides the closing price trends of SHFE nickel futures main contract, LME nickel (3 - month) electronic disk, and stainless steel futures main contract, with data sources from Wind [8][10]. - **Nickel Spot Average Price**: The report shows the average price trends of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, with data source from Wind [12]. - **Primary Nickel Supply and Inventory**: It includes China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality, China's primary nickel monthly total supply (including imports) seasonality, domestic social inventory (nickel plate + nickel beans) seasonality, and LME nickel inventory seasonality, with data sources from Wind [14][15]. - **Upstream Nickel Ore**: It presents the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality, China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price (national average), and Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price, with data sources from Wind [17][18]. - **Nickel Pig Iron Production**: It shows China's nickel iron monthly production seasonality and Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality, with data sources from Wind [19][20]. - **Downstream Nickel Sulfate**: It includes the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, battery - grade nickel sulfate premium, nickel bean production of nickel sulfate profit margin seasonality, China's externally - sourced nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel profit seasonality, China's nickel sulfate monthly production (metal tons), and ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonality, with data sources from Wind [22][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: It shows China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin seasonality, stainless steel monthly production seasonality, and stainless steel inventory seasonality, with data sources from Wind [28][30][31].