1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Views PTA - The supply - demand pattern of PTA is expected to be acceptable in the near term, as some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving the continuous strengthening of the spot basis. The futures market has also risen significantly following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will show a strong - side fluctuation. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream loads [5]. MEG - Last week, the unloading of ethylene glycol at ports was smooth, and with some domestic trade goods being shipped into storage, it is expected that the visible inventory will still rise moderately early next week. Fundamentally, the medium - and long - term inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol still exists, and the available spot in the market will continue to be abundant. It will take time to restore market confidence. Next week is the delivery node, so attention should be paid to the replenishment rhythm of traders in the market. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will mainly be sorted out at a low level, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost and device news [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No specific review content was found in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, December cargo was traded around 01 - 10 or at a 70 - point discount to 05, with individual transactions slightly higher at a 55 - point discount to 05, and the price negotiation range was 4680 - 4815. January cargo was traded around 05 - 60 to 70 or at the 01 level. Cargo for mid - to - late February was traded around 05 - 55. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 10 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4765, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 117, indicating a premium on the futures market [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.76 days, a decrease of 0.1 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net position is long, changing from short to long [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned in the core view [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the market buying sentiment was average. The ethylene glycol futures market showed a weak downward trend, and the follow - up of buyers in the market was average. The mainstream negotiation and transaction of next - week's spot were at a discount of 15 - 18 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Near the end of the session, the ethylene glycol spot price further weakened to around 3600 yuan/ton. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol external market weakened slightly, and the negotiation was rather stalemate. In the morning, the negotiation and transaction of December - end and January - shipped goods were around 430 - 435 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, as the ethylene glycol futures market weakened, the negotiation center of mid - January shipped goods fell to around 428 - 430 US dollars/ton. The negotiation ranges for domestic and external market transactions were 3600 - 3665 yuan/ton and 426 - 438 US dollars/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3625, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 113, indicating a premium on the futures market [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 84.4 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position is short, with a reduction in short positions [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned in the core view [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - The report mentions that the short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, so attention should be paid to the cost side. For a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA - The PTA supply - demand balance sheet shows data on PTA production capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. MEG - The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet shows data on ethylene glycol production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Price data for various products on December 19 and 18, 2025, including spot prices of naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis, and profit data for different production methods are provided [13]. - There are also multiple charts showing historical data on prices, production margins, inventory, and operating rates of PTA, MEG, PET bottle chips, polyester fibers, etc., from 2019 - 2025 [14][17][20] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and rose. The spot market negotiation atmosphere improved, and trading volume increased. The 1 - month negotiation increased, and the spot basis was relatively strong. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 11. - The PTA plant has been operating stably recently. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving up the spot basis. The futures price fluctuates following the cost. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream loads. [5] MEG - The MEG is operating at a low price. Some domestic ethylene - based plants have reduced their loads. The ethylene glycol operating rate dropped to below 70% last week. With the restart and load increase of Zhengda Kai this week, the operating rate will moderately recover. The arrival of foreign ships of ethylene glycol this week has returned to normal, and the upward trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. - In the short - to - medium - term, due to the supply - side contraction, ethylene glycol shows a loose balance, but under the long - term inventory accumulation expectation, the market lacks confidence and obvious driving forces. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be adjusted at a low level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the cost side and plant changes. [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - **Fundamentals**: Futures fluctuated and rose, spot negotiation was active, and the basis was strong. The 12 - month goods were mainly traded at a discount of 10 - 12 to 01, with a price range of 4610 - 4685. The next - week warehouse receipts were traded at a discount of 10 - 15 to 01, and the January main - port goods were traded at a discount of 60 - 65 to 05 or 2 - 0 to 01. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4655, and the 05 - contract basis is - 93, with the futures price higher than the spot price (neutral). - **Inventory**: The PTA plant inventory is 3.76 days, a decrease of 0.1 days compared to the previous period (positive). - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average (positive). - **Main Position**: Net short position, with short positions decreasing (negative). [5][6] - **MEG**: - **Fundamentals**: Similar to PTA, the futures fluctuated and rose, the spot negotiation improved, and the basis was strong. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3654, and the 05 - contract basis is - 113, with the futures price higher than the spot price (neutral). - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 84.4 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons compared to the previous period (negative). - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average (negative). - **Main Position**: Net short position, with short positions increasing (negative). [7][8] 3.3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, load, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data. For example, in December 2025, the PTA production is expected to be 684, the total demand is 666, and the ending inventory is 314. [12] - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, total demand, port inventory, and other data. For example, in December 2025, the total supply of ethylene glycol is 252, the total demand is 247, and the supply - demand difference is 5. [13] - **Price Data**: - **Spot Price**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have fluctuated. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased from $575.5/ton on December 17, 2025, to $584.5/ton on December 18, 2025. - **Futures Price**: The prices of PTA and MEG futures contracts have also changed. For example, the TA01 contract price increased from 4626 yuan/ton to 4690 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: The basis of PTA and MEG futures contracts has changed. For example, the TA05 basis decreased from - 80 yuan/ton to - 93 yuan/ton. - **Profit**: The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester products have changed. For example, the PTA processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 129.30 yuan/ton. [14] - **Inventory Data**: It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers over the years, showing the inventory trends of these products. [41][42][44][46] - **Operating Rate Data**: It shows the operating rate data of the upstream and downstream of the polyester industry chain over the years, including the operating rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises. [53][57] - **Profit Data**: It presents the profit data of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester fiber production over the years, showing the profit trends of these products. [60][62]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: The early maintenance devices of PTA are gradually restarting, and the polyester load downstream is decreasing, weakening the support for PTA from the supply - demand side. The spot price of PTA will fluctuate weakly, while the spot basis will run strongly in the short - term due to tight spot supply, with an expected decline as supply returns. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device production and changes in downstream polyester load [6]. - MEG: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the port inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to decline significantly, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang's mainstream trade tanks is likely to fall within 200,000 tons. The tradable spot of ethylene glycol in June remains tight, and the spot basis will mainly run strongly. The medium - and short - term supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is favorable, supporting its price. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester load [7]. - Influencing Factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol leads to supply contraction, with an expected inventory reduction of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, supporting price rebounds. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will levy taxes on polyester products starting in 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises below 70%, and the inventory days of filament and staple fiber are approaching historical highs [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the report. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, the spot basis was strong, and individual polyester suppliers made bids. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 220 [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,855 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 235, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories is 4.03 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net long position is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Thursday, ethylene glycol weakened and declined. The market negotiation was fair. The night - session opened higher and then fell back, with cautious buying. The market continued to be weak during the day, and the spot price dropped to around 4,315 yuan/ton in the afternoon [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,347 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 113, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, indicating a bullish signal [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 553,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,200 tons, indicating a bullish signal [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [8]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the report. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot prices of naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers, as well as the futures prices and basis of PTA and ethylene glycol on June 12, 2025, and their changes compared with June 11 [14]. - **Inventory Data**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers, including factory inventory days and port inventory [43][45][52]. - **Operating Rate Data**: It shows the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54][56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the processing fees of PTA, the production profits of ethylene glycol from different raw materials, and the production profits of polyester filaments and polyester staple fibers from 2022 to 2025 [62][65][67].