交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，12月货在01-10附近或者05贴水70有成交，个别略高在05贴水55有成交，价格商谈区间在4680~4815。1月货 在05-60~70附近或者01水平成交。2月中上在05-55附近有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-10。中性 2、基差：现货4765，05合约基差-117，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.76天，环比减少0.1天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 空翻多 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA装置变动较少，供需格局预期尚可，部分聚酯工厂阶 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡上涨，现货市场商谈氛围好转，成交放量，1月商谈增多，现货基差偏强。贸易商商谈为主，12月 货主流在01贴水10~12附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4610~4685。下周仓单在01贴水10~15有成交，1月主港在05贴水60~65或者 01贴水2~0有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-11。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA装置运行平稳，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，带动现货基差走强，期货盘面跟随成本端震荡运行，预计短期内 PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注油价走势及下游负荷。 2、基差： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: The early maintenance devices of PTA are gradually restarting, and the polyester load downstream is decreasing, weakening the support for PTA from the supply - demand side. The spot price of PTA will fluctuate weakly, while the spot basis will run strongly in the short - term due to tight spot supply, with an expected decline as supply returns. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device production and changes in downstream polyester load [6]. - MEG: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the port inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to decline significantly, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang's mainstream trade tanks is likely to fall within 200,000 tons. The tradable spot of ethylene glycol in June remains tight, and the spot basis will mainly run strongly. The medium - and short - term supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is favorable, supporting its price. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester load [7]. - Influencing Factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol leads to supply contraction, with an expected inventory reduction of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, supporting price rebounds. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will levy taxes on polyester products starting in 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises below 70%, and the inventory days of filament and staple fiber are approaching historical highs [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the report. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, the spot basis was strong, and individual polyester suppliers made bids. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 220 [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,855 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 235, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories is 4.03 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net long position is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Thursday, ethylene glycol weakened and declined. The market negotiation was fair. The night - session opened higher and then fell back, with cautious buying. The market continued to be weak during the day, and the spot price dropped to around 4,315 yuan/ton in the afternoon [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,347 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 113, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, indicating a bullish signal [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 553,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,200 tons, indicating a bullish signal [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [8]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the report. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot prices of naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers, as well as the futures prices and basis of PTA and ethylene glycol on June 12, 2025, and their changes compared with June 11 [14]. - **Inventory Data**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers, including factory inventory days and port inventory [43][45][52]. - **Operating Rate Data**: It shows the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54][56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the processing fees of PTA, the production profits of ethylene glycol from different raw materials, and the production profits of polyester filaments and polyester staple fibers from 2022 to 2025 [62][65][67].