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宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251110
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:56
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On November 7, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $59.75 per barrel, up 0.54%; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $63.63 per barrel, up 0.39%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan was $581.75 per ton, up 1.04% [1] - The spot price of isomeric xylene in FOB South Korea was $693.50 per ton, up 0.14%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR China's main port was $825.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - **PTA** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,664 yuan per ton, down 0.51%; the settlement price was 4,652 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - The closing price of CZCE TA's near - month contract was 4,616 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 4,608 yuan per ton, up 1.54% [1] - The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,574 yuan per ton, up 0.73%; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,572 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $620.00 per ton, up 0.98% [1] - The near - far month spread was - 44 yuan per ton, an increase of 38 yuan; the basis was - 92 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan [1] - **PX** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,780 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the settlement price was 6,758 yuan per ton, up 0.99% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX's near - month contract was 6,786 yuan per ton, up 0.98%; the settlement price was 6,786 yuan per ton, up 0.98% [1] - The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,502 yuan per ton, up 0.45%; the spot price of p - xylene in CFR Taiwan, China was $826.00 per ton, down 0.12%; the spot price of p - xylene in FOB South Korea was $801.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - The PXN spread was $243.25 per ton, down 2.80%; the PX - MX spread was $131.50 per ton, down 1.50%; the basis was - 278 yuan per ton, an increase of 69 yuan [1] - **PR** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,726 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 5,724 yuan per ton, up 0.92% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PR's near - month contract was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.53%; the settlement price was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.53% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the market price in the South China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [1] - The basis in the East China market was 14 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 64 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1] - **Downstream** - On November 7, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,525 yuan per ton, up 0.29%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, up 0.37% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,050 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, up 2.24% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,330 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,620 yuan per ton, up 0.54%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 88.03%, unchanged; the load rate of PTA factories in the PTA industry chain was 77.42%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 89.70%, unchanged; the load rate of bottle chip factories was 76.55%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] - The sales rate of polyester filament was 48.28%, down 21.72 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 46.68%, down 23.29 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 53.72%, down 89.32 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device of South China Ineos was under maintenance, and the restart date was to be determined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device of Southwest Sichuan Energy Investment was planned to be maintained at the end of this week, possibly shut down for 45 days, which remained to be watched [2] Market Analysis - **PX** - This week, the PX price rebounded after a decline, with the absolute price up 0.4% week - on - week to $823 per ton CFR on Friday. The weekly average price remained strong, up 0.2% week - on - week to $820 per ton CFR. The international oil price continued to be weak, and cost - side support was insufficient. The domestic PX supply remained stable, awaiting the realization of the expected changes in PTA devices [2] - Due to the release of sentiment from the news, the PX2601 contract closed at 6,780 yuan per ton (up 1.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 362,800 lots. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, the PX load could still be effectively maintained even if there were fluctuations in the disproportionation or reform operations of domestic factories such as LIDONG and Hengli. The PX operating rate remained at a high level this year. Recently, market disturbances caused by rumors were obvious. Since 8.7 million tons of PTA devices were put into operation this year, it promoted the annual destocking of PX, which had an obvious supporting effect on PX. As the industry entered the off - season, the upstream would be more sensitive to demand - side feedback [2] - **PTA** - Due to device changes, the TA2601 contract closed at 4,664 yuan per ton (up 0.95%), with an intraday trading volume of 926,200 lots. On Thursday, the sales rate of polyester filament at the end of the session was around 228.61%, which was positive for the PTA market on Friday, and cost support remained. The PTA market rose slightly. The spot supply was sufficient, and the spot basis fluctuated within a limited range. Recently, many PTA device maintenance operations were carried out as planned, and the industry had long anticipated this. However, due to the continuously low processing fee, the impact of device maintenance would be aggravated, and there was actually no unexpected reduction. The domestic demand market was running moderately and weakly, but recently, the inquiry atmosphere for foreign trade orders was active, and subsequent orders would increase. In the short term, the overall downstream demand was acceptable. Generally speaking, the supply side could not eliminate the pressure only by short - term maintenance or shutdown [2] - **PR** - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,710 - 5,810 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures showed a warm - biased shock. Most offers on the supply side were raised, and the downstream purchasing willingness was average, mainly for replenishing stocks on a just - in - time basis [2] - Following the cost movement, the PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton (up 0.95%), with an intraday trading volume of 36,100 lots. The supply - side operation was temporarily stable, and the overall market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream end - users were cautious, mainly following up with small just - in - time orders [2]
宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251106
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 05:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On November 5, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $59.60 per barrel, down 1.59% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $63.52 per barrel, down 1.43% [1] - **Naphtha**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan on November 5, 2025, was $577.50 per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **PX**: The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port on November 5, 2025, was $816.00 per ton, up 0.18%; the domestic spot price was 6504.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **PTA**: The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - market on November 5, 2025, was 4510.00 yuan per ton, down 0.33%; the outer - market was $610.00 per ton (November 4), down 0.49% [1] - **PR**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market on November 5, 2025, was 5690.00 yuan per ton, down 0.44%; in the South China market, it was 5730.00 yuan per ton, down 0.52% [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, chip, and bottle - grade chip showed little change or a slight decline on November 5, 2025 [2] Spread Information - **PXN Spread**: On November 5, 2025, it was $238.50 per ton, up 0.21% [1] - **PX - MX Spread**: On November 5, 2025, it was $129.00 per ton, up 0.78% [1] - **Near - far Month Spread of PTA**: On November 5, 2025, it was - 36.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan [1] - **Basis**: The basis of PTA was - 90.00 yuan per ton on November 5, 2025, a decrease of 11.00 yuan; the basis of PX was - 146.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan; the basis of PR in the East China market was 28.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 21.00 yuan; in the South China market, it was 68.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26.00 yuan [1] Operating Rate Information - On November 5, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 77.84%, down 1.82%; the polyester factory load rate was 89.56%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 75.63%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales Rate Information - On November 5, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 52.59%, up 4.44%; the production and sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 38.35%, down 4.26%; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 46.28%, down 22.17% [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (design capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy's No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the old one will be shut down [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: With the cooling of the overall risk appetite in the financial market, oil prices fluctuated and closed down. The domestic PX device supply was stable, and the demand - side PTA had both maintenance and restart. Some domestic PX plants had reformer maintenance, but the market supply remained stable with the supplement of toluene and xylene. Overseas devices ran smoothly. A 700,000 - ton device in the Northeast was expanded to 1 million tons and was increasing production [2] - **PTA**: The market focus returned to the fundamentals. PTA spot supply was sufficient. The crude oil market fluctuated narrowly, and downstream demand was stable. A 2.7 - million - ton PTA device in East China started trial operation, which had limited impact on the market. The supply - side production reduction expectation failed, and downstream demand was generally weak [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5670 - 5790 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated narrowly. The supply - side offers mostly decreased, and downstream purchasing willingness was low [2] Trading Strategy - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]
PX&PTA&PR早评-20251030
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 07:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX benefit will remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to subsequent industry meetings. For PTA, if demand does not improve sustainably, the upward space will be limited. The PR market has sufficient supply and weak demand [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: As of October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) remained unchanged, while the external price index was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D remained unchanged at 6,950 yuan per ton; FDY150D remained unchanged at 6,700 yuan per ton; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chips remained unchanged at 5,605 yuan per ton; bottle - grade chips were 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2]. Spread Information - On October 29, 2025, the PXN spread was $246.88 per ton, up 0.61%; the PX - MX spread was $137.00 per ton, up 1.86%. The TA near - far month spread was - 48 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan; the TA basis was - 101 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The PX basis was - 201 yuan per ton, a decrease of 108 yuan. The PR basis in the East China market was 14 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; in the South China market, it was 54 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan [1]. Operating Conditions - As of October 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.09%, up 0.63%; the polyester factory load rate was 89.28%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 73.31%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20% [1]. Production and Sales Rates - On October 29, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy's No. 4 (design capacity) started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2]. Market Analysis - **PX**: Overnight crude oil was weak, and the oil price cooled down after horizontal adjustment. The domestic PX operating load remained high, and the PTA main suppliers' symposium was about to be held. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors about a refinery's shutdown had no follow - up, and overseas devices ran smoothly. The call for anti - involution in the industry had little impact on PX supply and demand in the short - term [2]. - **PTA**: The industry meeting boosted market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. The PTA market fluctuated narrowly, and the spot basis strengthened slightly under the expectation of production reduction. The new PTA device in East China started trial production, but the anti - involution expectation offset its impact. It may be difficult to coordinate a new production reduction plan, and the upward space will be limited without continuous demand improvement [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5710 - 5830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, the market atmosphere was weak, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The supply of the bottle - chip market was relatively sufficient, and the demand was weak [2].
宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251030
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX view is scored 0, the PTA view is scored 0, and the PR view is scored 0 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1] - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA outer - market on October 28 was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1] - **PX**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1] - **PR**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, unchanged; FDY150D was 6,700 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chip was 5,605 yuan per ton, unchanged; bottle - grade chip was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2] Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester filament on October 29, 2025, was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; polyester chip was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1] Operating Rate - On October 29, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.09%, up 0.63 percentage points; polyester factories was 89.28%, unchanged; bottle - chip factories was 73.31%, unchanged; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (design capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: Overnight crude oil was weak. After short - term digestion of geopolitical and macro - emotions, there was no new positive news. The PX CFR China price on October 29 was $818 per ton, with cost - end oil prices fluctuating in a range. The domestic PX operating load remained high. The PTA main - supplier symposium was about to be held, and participants were still confident in the future supply - demand outlook. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors of a refinery's possible shutdown had no follow - up. Overseas devices were stable. The PX profit was expected to fluctuate stably in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The industry meeting continued to boost market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. Traders awaited PTA meeting news. Crude oil failed to recover losses. PTA prices fluctuated narrowly. Under the expectation of production cuts, the spot basis strengthened slightly. The new PTA device in East China started trial production. The anti - involution expectation offset the impact of new capacity. It might be difficult to coordinate new production - cut plans. The increase in the terminal loom operating rate and good polyester filament sales were positive for the market [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market was 5,710 - 5,830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, with a weak market atmosphere and low downstream purchasing willingness. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The bottle - chip market supply was relatively abundant, and downstream demand was weak [2]
宏源期货PX&PTA&PR早评-20250926
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner in the short - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 25, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $64.98 per barrel, down 0.02% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.42 per barrel, up 0.16%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $676.00 per ton, up 0.52%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, up 0.57% [1] - **PTA**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 1.12%; the settlement price was 4,658 yuan per ton, up 1.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18%; the settlement price was 4,630 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,597 yuan per ton, up 0.81%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,585 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the external price index was $609.00 per ton, up 1.50% [1] - **PX**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 1.09%; the settlement price was 6,640 yuan per ton, up 1.10%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,678 yuan per ton, up 0.69%; the settlement price was 6,470 yuan per ton, down 2.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6,382 yuan per ton. The spot price (CFR China Taiwan) was $813.00 per ton, up 1.12%; the spot price (FOB South Korea) was $796.00 per ton, up 1.02%. The PXN spread was $208.50 per ton, up 1.05%; the PX - MX spread was $141.00 per ton, up 0.84% [1] - **PR**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,840 yuan per ton, up 0.97%; the settlement price was 5,816 yuan per ton, up 1.04%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 1.31%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, up 1.00%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; in the South China market, it was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - **Downstream**: On September 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,475 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 1.44%; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,425 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the price index of polyester chips was 5,755 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [2] Device Information - A 7 - million - ton PX plant in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: Geopolitical and sanctions around Russia are the main factors driving international crude oil prices. The expected pressure of supply glut has not been reflected in the market, and oil prices were stagnant during the Asian session. The CFR China price of PX on September 25 was $817 per ton, and international oil prices continued to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories. The domestic PX operating load was stable, and the demand side was waiting for the implementation of the expected changes in PTA plants. The cost support led to a slight price recovery. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (up 1.61%), with a trading volume of 185,500 lots. The increase in PX supply due to the increase in short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some plant maintenance was obvious, while the demand for PX decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA plant maintenance. The supply - demand situation did not change significantly, and the PX profit would remain low in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The cost support slightly recovered, and the TA2601 contract closed at 4,678 yuan per ton (up 1.74%), with a trading volume of 701,000 lots. The sales of polyester filament on Wednesday evening were around 149% and 175% on Thursday, which was positive for the PTA market. The cost support was strengthened, and there was a strong expectation of PTA plant maintenance due to low processing fees. The leading polyester factories adjusted the production rhythm to stabilize market supply, but the production enterprises faced great pressure to sell at the end of the month. The new orders of weaving enterprises improved, and the shipment speed of grey cloth continued to improve, but the overall inventory pressure in the grey cloth market still existed, leading to the lack of confidence of downstream enterprises in the future market. As the National Day holiday approached, the sentiment in the downstream market was clearly divided, and some enterprises expected the market to improve after the holiday [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of PTA and bottle - chip futures rose, and the supply - side quotation of bottle chips mainly increased, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream terminals was not high, and the trading atmosphere was light. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,840 yuan per ton (up 1.46%), with a trading volume of 28,600 lots. The operating rate of the bottle - chip industry was expected to gradually recover, and the market supply of goods was relatively abundant. The purchasing intention of downstream terminals was not high, and the market trading atmosphere was light [2] Production and Sales and Operating Conditions - **Operating Conditions**: On September 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of PTA plants in the PTA industry chain was 78.12%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.81%, up 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 69.37%, up 0.27 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms was 69.19%, up 1.64 percentage points [1] - **Production and Sales**: On September 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 175.16%, up 94.51 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 88.58%, up 21.54 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 152.51%, up 9.03 percentage points [1]
PX&PTA&PR早评-20250917
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 02:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On September 16, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $64.52 per barrel, up 1.93% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $68.47 per barrel, up 1.53% [1]. - **Naphtha and Xylene**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $604.88 per ton, down 0.60%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $680.00 per ton, down 0.66% [1]. - **PX**: The spot price of p - xylene CFR China Main Port was $834.00 per ton, down 0.24%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was unchanged at 6617 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $229.13 per ton, up 0.71%, and the PX - MX spread was $154.00 per ton, up 1.65% [1]. - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4688 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4618 yuan per ton, up 0.39% [1]. - **PR**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5846 yuan per ton, up 0.24%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5850 yuan per ton, up 0.34% [1]. Supply and Demand Information - **PX**: International crude oil has cost support for PX, but the improvement of domestic PX supply capacity and poor demand follow - up have pressured market confidence. The domestic and overseas PX device loads are on the rise, and the downstream polyester season has not seen an over - expected increase in new orders and loads [2]. - **PTA**: The fundamentals have no obvious changes. Crude oil provides cost support under low processing fees, but the sufficient PTA spot restricts the increase. A 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing supply. The polyester raw material end starts to pick up significantly, while the polyester and downstream starts to pick up slowly, and the demand for the peak season is expected to weaken [2]. - **PR**: The downstream demand is average. The supply of bottle chips is stable, and the market spot is sufficient. Downstream terminals purchase on demand with a cautious attitude [2]. Device Information - The 1.2 - million - ton PTA device of Ningbo Taihua stopped on September 5 [2]. Trading Volume Information - The trading volume of the PX2511 contract was 173,400 lots, the trading volume of the TA2601 contract was 640,200 lots, and the trading volume of the PR2511 contract was 34,100 lots [2]. Operating Rate Information - The operating rates of the PX, PTA factory, polyester factory, bottle chip factory, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged on September 16, 2025, at 87.16%, 78.25%, 88.78%, 74.19%, and 65.54% respectively [1]. Sales Rate Information - On September 16, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 40.95%, down 12.43 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 65.07%, up 14.44 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 120.74%, up 40.47 percentage points [1].
宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250820
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -地缘冲突 persists, with Trump's meetings with leaders of Ukraine and major European countries yielding no clear results. South American oil supply increases and the production of sanctioned countries remains strong, pressuring oil prices to decline gradually. [2] - Two 800,000 - ton PX plants in South China will restart soon, restoring PX supply. PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. [2] - Recently, there are more PTA plant overhauls, and the low processing fee continues to be favorable. The PTA market has a small increase, and the spot offer basis strengthens. However, with new plant commissioning expected on the supply - side and weak demand in the off - season, it's difficult to boost prices. [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is trading between 5880 - 5970 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply - side quotes mostly increase, and downstream demand is for rigid needs, with a general trading atmosphere. [2] - Without unexpected good news, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run in a volatile manner. [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 19, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.35/barrel, down 1.69% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $65.79/barrel, down 1.22%; naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $574.50/ton, up 0.66%; isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $676.00/ton, down 0.66% [1] - **PTA Price**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4734 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, down 0.25%; settlement price was 4746 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. Domestic PTA spot price was 4666 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. [1] - **PX Price**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6774 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, up 0.21%; settlement price was 6792 yuan/ton, up 1.34%. Domestic p - xylene spot price on August 18 was 6609 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. [1] - **PR Price**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5906 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, down 0.37%; settlement price was 5916 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China remained unchanged at 5920 yuan/ton and 5940 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - **Downstream Price**: CCFEI price indices of most downstream products such as polyester filament and bottle - grade chips remained unchanged on August 19, 2025, while the price indices of polyester staple fiber and polyester chips increased slightly, up 0.31% and 0.34% respectively. [2] 3.2 Spread Information - On August 19, 2025, the PXN spread was $260.50/ton, down 0.79%; the PX - MX spread was $159.00/ton, up 4.04%. [1] - The PTA near - far month spread was - 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from the previous value. The PX basis was - 165 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous value. The PR basis in East China and South China markets increased by 22 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Production and Sales Information - On August 19, 2025, the PX operating rate was 80.38%, unchanged; the PTA plant load rate was 75.09%, down 2.58 percentage points; the polyester plant load rate remained at 87.30%. [1] - The sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips increased by 5.30%, 12.63%, and 11.05% respectively on August 19, 2025. [1] 3.4 Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 million - ton PTA plant started maintenance on August 7, expected to last for 2 months; Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton PTA plant started maintenance on August 8, expected to last for 1 month; Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA plant is planned for technical renovation from August 15 for 3 months. [2] 3.5 Transaction Strategy - After the price correction, it maintains a volatile trend. The TA2601 contract closed at 4734 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), with a daily trading volume of 549,300 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6774 yuan/ton (up 1.07%), with a daily trading volume of 222,000 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5906 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), with a daily trading volume of 42,600 lots. [2]