1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the PX price rose and then retraced. The absolute price on Friday was down 0.9% week - on - week to $849/ton CFR, but the weekly average price still increased slightly by 1.4% to $855/ton CFR. The PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether the PX profit can continue to improve depends on more unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, and its social inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand of new PTA production facilities. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester production is gradually recovering [2]. - The PTA spot supply is sufficient, and the spot basis is weakening, which is negative for market sentiment. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to continuously boost the price. As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester production load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. The terminal demand is still weakly recovering, but the downstream's bullish expectation has increased. The industrial chain profit is shifting towards the raw material segment, and PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is trading at 5880 - 6030 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The bottle - chip supply side has a stable - to - falling price offer, and the downstream is cautious. The overall production reduction of the supply side has not changed significantly, and the market spot supply is abundant [2]. - Currently, the pricing logic is still cost - driven. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.01/barrel, down 0.91% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.12/barrel, down 0.73%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $597.38/ton, up 0.59%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $691.50/ton, up 0.29%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $849.00/ton, up 0.04% [1]. - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 4774 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4722 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 4718 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4776 yuan/ton, down 1.34%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4740 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; the CCFEI price index of overseas PTA was $634.00/ton, down 0.47% [1]. - **PX Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the settlement price was 6844 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6702 yuan/ton, down 2.53%; the settlement price was 6866 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The domestic PX spot price was 6738 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The PXN spread was $251.63/ton, down 1.24%; the PX - MX spread was $157.50/ton, down 1.05% [1]. - **PR Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the settlement price was 5954 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5836 yuan/ton, up 0.52%; the settlement price was 5832 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 5960 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 29, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6540 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5885 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2]. Production and Sales Information - On August 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain was 82.59%, up 2.21 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 70.76%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.15%, up 1.12 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.09%, up 1.16 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 41.62%, down 1.77 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 45.86%, up 5.15 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 77.76%, up 35.24 percentage points [1]. Trading Strategy - The TA2601 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with an intraday trading volume of 602,600 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, with an intraday trading volume of 270,000 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.20%, with an intraday trading volume of 60,500 lots [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and operational strategies of Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, indicating a stable yet challenging environment influenced by external factors such as international trade relations and commodity price fluctuations [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately CNY 44.16 billion, representing a decrease of 8.41% compared to the same period in the previous year [3][7]. - The total profit amounted to CNY 1.17 billion, showing an increase of 3.65% year-on-year [3][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.05 billion, reflecting a growth of 16.72% compared to the previous year [3][7]. - The company's total assets reached CNY 111.90 billion, marking a 7.20% increase from the end of the previous year [3][7]. Industry Overview - The polyester filament industry is experiencing cyclical characteristics, heavily influenced by upstream raw material prices and downstream demand dynamics [6][10]. - The company is the largest producer of polyester filament globally, with a comprehensive product range that includes POY, FDY, DTY, and various specialty fibers [6][12]. - The industry is characterized by a trend towards vertical integration, with companies extending their operations across the supply chain to mitigate risks and enhance profitability [5][12]. Operational Strategies - The company has successfully implemented a four-pronged development strategy focusing on integration, scale, intensification, and differentiation [8][10]. - A significant strategic move includes the acquisition of high-quality coal resources in the Turpan region, enhancing the company's resource base and operational capabilities [9][10]. - The company aims to strengthen its core competitiveness by focusing on key raw materials such as PTA and MEG, while also exploring opportunities in the aromatic route [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the domestic and international market conditions are challenging, yet the company maintains a strong foundation to navigate these uncertainties [8][10]. - The demand for polyester products remains robust, supported by the growth in the textile and apparel sectors, with exports showing positive trends [6][10]. - The company is positioned to benefit from favorable government policies aimed at enhancing market concentration and supporting industry leaders [10][11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market anticipates a general cooling of the geopolitical situation, with the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine progressing gradually, causing oil prices to give back gains and continue weak operation. PX supply is recovering, and it is at an advantageous position in the industrial chain with stable bottom support. Whether PX benefits can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Polyester bottle - chip supply is sufficient, and the market sentiment is cautious. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to run in a volatile manner [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 20, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.71 per barrel, up 0.58%; Brent crude oil was $66.84 per barrel, up 1.60%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $575.50 per ton, up 0.17%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $679.00 per ton, up 0.37%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $837.00 per ton, up 0.22% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, up 0.93%, and the settlement price was 4,742 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,689 yuan per ton, up 0.49%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,686 yuan per ton, down 0.09%, and the foreign price index was $624.00 per ton, up 0.16% [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,844 yuan per ton, up 1.03%, and the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, down 0.15%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,654 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $261.50 per ton, up 0.32%, and the PX - MX spread was $158.00 per ton, down 0.42% [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,964 yuan per ton, up 0.98%, and the settlement price was 5,914 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,900 yuan per ton, down 0.34%, and in the South China market was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY remained unchanged at 8,650 yuan per ton, the price index of polyester POY was 7,100 yuan per ton, down 0.35%, and the price index of polyester FDY68D and FDY150D remained unchanged at 7,150 yuan per ton [2] Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 7, expected to last 2 months. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 8, expected to last 1 month. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is planned for technical transformation from August 15 for 3 months [2] Production and Sales Situation - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms all remained unchanged on August 20, 2025. The sales rate of polyester filament was 74.19%, up 23.15 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 48.70%, down 4.34 percentage points; and the sales rate of polyester chips was 103.06%, up 17.01 percentage points [1] Trading Strategy - The TA2601 contract closed at 4,778 yuan per ton (up 0.67%) with a daily trading volume of 790,700 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6,844 yuan per ton (up 0.77%) with a daily trading volume of 308,800 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5,964 yuan per ton (up 0.81%) with a daily trading volume of 73,600 lots. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to run in a volatile manner (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 1, PR view score: 1) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PTA price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to weak cost and cautious demand expectations. The supply of PX and PTA may increase due to high - device operation rates and new production capacities, while the demand lacks strong support, and inventory may accumulate, putting downward pressure on prices. However, seasonal changes in demand and device changes need to be monitored [1][38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 19, the PX主力contract closed at 6,774.0 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 165.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力contract closed at 4,734.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 64.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost - end: On August 19, the Brent crude oil主力contract closed at 66.46 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.58 US dollars/barrel. The demand - end: On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 485.47 million meters [2]. - Supply side: The operation rates of PX and PTA devices remain high, and with the gradual implementation of new production capacities, the pressure of increased industry supply may continue to be released. The cost - end drive of PX is weak under the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the processing fees of PTA are suppressed by over - capacity, and the willingness of factories to increase production may further exacerbate the supply - loosening situation [2]. - Demand side: The transactions in the Light Textile City maintain a weak and stable pattern. Although the downstream polyester operation rate has not weakened significantly, the fabric orders lack substantial improvement. The traditional textile peak season is approaching, but the demand has not shown a continuous improvement, and the terminal negative feedback pressure continues to be transmitted upstream, making it difficult for the PTA demand side to form effective support [2]. - Inventory side: The PTA factory inventory is restricted by the weak basis structure, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. Currently, there are not many active production - reduction actions by factories, and there is still pressure on the price ceiling [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 19, the short - fiber主力contract closed at 6,432.0 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,500.0 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 68.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply side: The PX price has recently shown high - level fluctuations (ranging from 6,614 to 6,832 yuan/ton from August 11 - 19), but the PTA price has risen steadily (up 1.4% to 4,746 yuan/ton during the same period), indicating that the cost - end support is weakening but the downstream acceptance is good [4]. - Demand side: The 15 - day moving average transaction volume of the Light Textile City has continuously rebounded from 479 million meters to 485 million meters, reflecting the gradual recovery of terminal textile demand [4]. - Inventory side: There is a structural differentiation in inventory. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (7.25 days) are significantly higher than the five - year average (4.96 days), while the inventory of polyester filament POY (16.1 days) is lower than the average (20.4 days), and the inventory of FDY/DTY is basically the same as the historical average. The high - inventory pressure of short - fiber may restrict the overall increase, and continue to pay attention to polyester production - reduction information [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,774 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 68.14%, and the持仓volume increased by 6.83%. PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 833.33 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.25% [5]. - PTA futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 4,734 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day; the成交volume decreased by 16.25%, and the持仓volume decreased by 2.41%. PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 623 US dollars/ton [5]. - Short - fiber futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,432 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 7.48%, and the持仓volume decreased by 0.53%. Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market increased by 0.08% [5]. - Other prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle flakes, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or changed slightly on August 19 compared with the previous day [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha decreased by 1.09%, and the processing spreads of PTA decreased by 1.57%, while the processing spreads of other products remained unchanged [6]. - Light Textile City transaction volume: On August 19, the total transaction volume was 487 million meters, a decrease of 4.32% compared with the previous day, with the long - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 2.72% and the short - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 9.71% [6]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on August 19 [6]. - Inventory days: From August 7 to August 14, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 19, due to the UK inflation data being higher than expected, traders reduced their bets on the Bank of England's interest - rate cuts, believing that there would be no further cuts this year [7]. - On August 18, Fed's Daly said to wait for more data, and the number of interest - rate cuts may be less or more. It is still a good prediction to cut interest rates twice this year; Goolsbee said that the latest PPI and CPI inflation data were disturbing. If signs show that inflation is not in a spiral in September or later in the fall, interest rates can be cut. The market reduced its bets on interest - rate cuts but still expected a cut in September and another cut in 2025 [7]. - On August 18, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that the plan for Hong Kong to develop an international gold trading center would be announced within the year [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 393.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 93.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including PX and PTA主力futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester short - fiber and long - fiber sales situations, Light Textile City transaction volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - No relevant content provided Group 3: Price Summary - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/8/7 was $571.00 per ton, down 1.81% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene price index in Northeast Asia on 2025/8/6 was $821.00 per ton, with no change [1] - Ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China on 2025/8/8 was 6300.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/8/7 was 2387.50 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia (Q3500) on 2025/8/7 was 290.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - DCE EG main contract closing price on 2025/8/7 was 4396.00 yuan per ton, down 0.41% [1] - DCE EG main contract settlement price on 2025/8/7 was 4412.00 yuan per ton, up 0.02% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price on 2025/8/7 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - DCE EG near - month contract settlement price on 2025/8/7 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Market intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China on 2025/8/7 was 4470.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol on 2025/8/7 was 4465.00 yuan per ton, down 0.56% [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/8/7 was - 5.00 yuan per ton, a change of - 1.00 [1] - Basis on 2025/8/7 was 69.00 yuan per ton, a change of - 7.00 [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/8/7 was 8600.00 yuan per ton, down 0.29% [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/8/7 was 7150.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/8/7 was 6480.00 yuan per ton, down 0.15% [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/8/7 was 5940.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] Group 4: Operating Conditions Summary - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate on 2025/8/7 was 58.15%, down 1.39% [1] - The operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/7 was 59.39%, unchanged [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/7 was 56.36%, down 3.40% [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on 2025/8/7 was 87.09%, unchanged [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of weaving machines in Zhejiang on 2025/8/7 was 57.83%, unchanged [1] Group 5: Cash Flow and Gross Margin Summary - External market naphtha - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/6 had a value of - 96.02 dollars per ton, a change of - 4.54 [1] - External market ethylene - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/6 was - 108.65 dollars per ton, a change of - 3.00 [1] - MTO - made MEG after - tax gross profit on 2025/8/7 was - 1531.01 yuan per ton, a change of - 7.05 [1] - Coal - based synthesis gas method after - tax device gross profit on 2025/8/7 was 559.29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.70 [1]

Group 1: Upstream Costs - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/8/1 was $604.00 per ton, down 1.15% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene price index in Northeast Asia on 2025/8/1 was $821.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Factory - average price of cycloethane in East China on 220//458 was 6300.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/8/1 was 2392.50 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Pit - mouth price of brown coal (tax - included) in Inner Mongolia (Q3500) on 2025/8/1 was 290.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] Group 2: Futures and Spot Prices - DCE EG主力合约 closing price on 2025/8/1 was 4405.00 yuan per ton, down 0.20% [1] - DCE EG主力合约 settlement price on 2025/8/1 was 4406.00 yuan per ton, down 0.59% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price on 2025/8/1 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, up 0.89% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract settlement price on 2025/8/1 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Market mid - price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China on 2025/8/1 was 4480.00 yuan per ton, down 0.22% [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic market on 2025/8/1 was 4480.00 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/8/1 was 1.00 yuan per ton, down 26.00 yuan [1] - Basis on 2025/8/1 was 75.00 yuan per ton, up 4.00 yuan [1] Group 3: Operating Conditions - Comprehensive ethylene glycol operating rate on 220//158 was 518.8%, up 0.68% [1] - Operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/1 was 59.42%, up 0.44% [1] - Operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/1 was 57.93%, up 1.04% [1] - PTA industrial chain polyester factory load rate on 2025/8/1 was 86.15%, down 0.13% [1] - PTA industrial chain Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate on 2025/8/1 was 57.83%, unchanged [1] Group 4: Cash Flow and Polyester Prices - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made EG on 2025/8/1 was - 1545.27 yuan per ton, down 39.33 yuan [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - synthetic gas method device on 2025/8/1 was 610.18 yuan per ton, down 8.85 yuan [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/8/1 was 8625.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/8/1 was 7150.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 220//158 was 6560.00 yuan per ton, down 0.53% [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/8/1 was 5950.00 yuan per ton, down 0.67% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of international crude oil has continued to rise due to geopolitical relations and other factors, which has strengthened the cost support for PX. The domestic PX supply level is low, demand is good, and the fundamental boosting effect still exists. However, whether the PX benefit can continue to rise depends on whether there are more unexpected factors. [2] - The cost of PTA is pushed up by the rising crude oil, but the spot basis has weakened due to the shipment of the main PTA suppliers. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and it is difficult to boost the price due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season on the demand side. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has risen, but the market trading atmosphere is light. The supply side's starting level remains low, and the market supply is abundant, while the downstream terminal's buying enthusiasm is not high. [2] - Without more unexpected positive factors, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 30, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased by 1.14% and 1.01% respectively compared with the previous values. The spot prices of naphtha, xylene, etc. also showed varying degrees of increase. [1] - **PTA**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts, as well as the domestic spot price and CCFEI price index, all increased to different extents on July 30, 2025. The near - far month spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10 yuan/ton. [1] - **PX**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts increased on July 30, 2025. The domestic spot price remained unchanged, and the spot prices in other regions increased slightly. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread decreased. [1] - **PR**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main contract increased slightly on July 30, 2025, while the closing and settlement prices of the near - month contract decreased slightly. The mainstream market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets showed different trends, and the basis also changed accordingly. [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of some polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, and short - fiber increased slightly on July 30, 2025, while some remained unchanged. [2] Operating Conditions - On July 30, 2025, the PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 77.29%. The PTA factory load rate decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 79.45%, while the load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament increased by 77 percentage points to 110%, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester short - fiber decreased by 10 percentage points to 43%, and the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips increased by 21 percentage points to 89%. [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1. [2] Trading Strategy - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton (0.41%) with an intraday trading volume of 540,300 lots. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,984 yuan/ton (0.66%) with an intraday trading volume of 143,500 lots. The PR2509 contract closed at 6,014 yuan/ton (0.00%) with an intraday trading volume of 33,700 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Price and Cost Summary - Naphtha CFR Japan spot price on 2025/7/17 was $574.75 per ton, down 1.14% from the previous value [1] - Northeast Asia ethylene price on 2025/7/16 was $821.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Ethylene oxide ex - factory average price in East China on 2025/7/18 was 6450 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Methanol MA spot price on 2025/7/17 was 2377.50 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Tax - included lignite pit - mouth price in Inner Mongolia on 2025/7/17 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] Group 4: Futures and Spot Price Summary - DCE EG主力合约 closing price on 2025/7/17 was 4372 yuan per ton, up 0.48% [1] - DCE EG主力合约 settlement price on 2025/7/17 was 4367 yuan per ton, up 0.87% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price on 2025/7/17 was 4226 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - DCE EG near - month contract settlement price on 2025/7/17 was 4226 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Ethylene glycol market price in East China on 2025/7/17 was 4440 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI ethylene glycol internal price index on 2025/7/17 was 4440 yuan per ton, up 0.45% [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/7/17 was - 141 yuan per ton, down 34 yuan [1] Group 5: Operating Conditions and Load Rate Summary - Ethylene glycol comprehensive operating rate on 2025/7/17 was 56.46%, down 0.19% [1] - Petroleum - based ethylene glycol operating rate on 2025/7/17 was 58.73%, up 0.82% [1] - Coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate on 2025/7/17 was 53.17%, down 1.66% [1] - Polyester factory PTA industrial chain load rate on 2025/7/17 was 87.15%, unchanged [1] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms PTA industrial chain load rate on 2025/7/17 was 58.02%, down 1.10% [1] Group 6: Cash Flow and Price Index Summary - Naphtha - based ethylene glycol external cash flow on 2025/7/16 was - 103.92 dollars per ton, up 12.65 dollars [1] - Ethylene - based ethylene glycol external cash flow on 2025/7/16 was 116.65 dollars per ton, unchanged [1] - MTO - based MEG after - tax gross profit on 2025/7/17 was 1650.73 yuan per ton, down 19.34 yuan [1] - Coal - based synthesis gas method after - tax device gross profit on 2025/7/17 was 663.26 yuan per ton, up 28.76 yuan [1] - CCFEI polyester DTY price index on 2025/7/17 was 8500 yuan per ton, down 1.16% [1] - CCFEI polyester staple fiber price index on 2025/7/17 was 6605 yuan per ton, down 0.23% [1] - CCFEI polyester POY price index on 2025/7/17 was 6950 yuan per ton, down 1.42% [1] - CCFEI bottle - grade chip price index on 2025/7/17 was 5935 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - Basis on 2025/7/17 was 68 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The price of ethylene glycol (MEG) has been fluctuating within a certain range, with the spot price reaching a high of 4,460 yuan/ton and the basis weakening towards the end of the session. The market sentiment has been somewhat boosted, and the trading volume of futures contracts has increased. However, the downstream polyester industry is still facing pressure, with a decline in the operating rate and a decrease in the demand for raw materials. The restart of some MEG production facilities has been delayed, which may affect the supply in the short term. Geopolitical conflicts may also have an impact on the local loading plans and the market sentiment. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Naphtha CFR Japan**: The price on July 17, 2025, was $574.75/ton, down 1.14% from the previous value. [1] - **Ethylene Northeast Asia**: The price on July 16, 2025, was $821.00/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - **Ethylene Oxide in East China**: The ex - factory average price on July 18, 2025, was 6,450 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - **Methanol MA**: The price on July 17, 2025, was 2,377.50 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - **Lignite in Inner Mongolia**: The pit - mouth price (tax - included) on July 17, 2025, was 290 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - **DCE EG Futures Contracts**: - The closing price of the main contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,372 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous value. - The settlement price of the main contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,367 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from the previous value. - The closing price of the near - month contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,226 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. - The settlement price of the near - month contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,226 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG) in East China**: The market price (mid - price) on July 17, 2025, was 4,440 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. The CCFEI price index for MEG inner - market on July 17, 2025, was 4,440 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous value. [1] - **Near - far Month Spread of MEG**: On July 17, 2025, it was - 141 yuan/ton, down from - 107 yuan/ton previously. [1] - **Comprehensive Operating Rate of MEG**: On July 17, 2025, it was 56.46%, down 0.19% from the previous value. [1] - **Operating Rate of Petroleum - based MEG**: On July 17, 2025, it was 58.73%, up 0.82% from the previous value. [1] - **Operating Rate of Coal - based MEG**: On July 17, 2025, it was 53.17%, down 1.66% from the previous value. [1] - **PTA Industrial Chain Load Rate**: - The load rate of polyester factories on July 17, 2025, was 87.15%, remaining unchanged from the previous value. - The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on July 17, 2025, was 58.02%, down 1.10% from the previous value. [1] - **Cash - flow Situation**: - The after - tax gross profit of MTO - based MEG on July 17, 2025, was 1,650.73 yuan/ton, down 19.34 yuan/ton from the previous value. - The after - tax gross profit of coal - based syngas method on July 17, 2025, was 663.26 yuan/ton, up 28.76 yuan/ton from the previous value. [1] - **Polyester Price Index**: - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on July 17, 2025, was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the previous value. - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on July 17, 2025, was 6,605 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous value. - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY on July 17, 2025, was 6,950 yuan/ton, down 1.42% from the previous value. - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on July 17, 2025, was 5,935 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous value. [1] - **Basis of MEG**: On July 17, 2025, it was 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous value. [1] Important Information - A 150,000 - ton/year syngas - based ethylene glycol production facility in Xinjiang has been facing difficulties in restarting recently. [2] - The price of ethylene glycol has been fluctuating within a certain range, with the spot price reaching a high of 4,460 yuan/ton. The basis of the spot price has weakened towards the end of the session. The negotiation price of some cargoes is around $515 - 520/ton, and some cargoes are traded at around $53/ton. [2] - The trading volume of ethylene glycol futures has increased, and the market sentiment has been somewhat boosted. The downstream polyester industry is still facing pressure, with a decline in the operating rate and a decrease in the demand for raw materials. [2] - Geopolitical conflicts may affect the local loading plans and the market sentiment. [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货跟随成本端震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，日内伴随个别主流供应商出货及聚酯大厂减产消息， 现货基差走弱，贸易商商谈为主，零星聚酯工厂递盘，7月货在09+0~20有成交，个别略低，价格商谈区间在4720~4750附近。 今日主流现货基差在09+7。中性 2、基差：现货4735，09合约基差-7，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.95天，环比减少0.14天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：从基本面来看，7月检修不多，另 ...