Core Viewpoint - The stock of Jiumaojiu (09922) has dropped over 5%, reaching a new low of 2.13 HKD, amid concerns regarding the performance of its main brands and recent operational challenges [1] Company Performance - Jiumaojiu reported a revenue of 2.753 billion RMB in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to equity shareholders was 60.691 million RMB, down 16% year-on-year [1] - The company closed 88 stores in the first half of the year, primarily due to the expiration of lease agreements and underperformance of certain restaurants [1] Industry Context - The pre-prepared meal topic has gained significant attention, with reports indicating that dishes at Taier Suancaiyu can be served within 7 minutes, highlighting a shift towards faster service [1] - Taier Suancaiyu has implemented a "5.0 Fresh Mode" this year, adding woks and chefs for on-site cooking to enhance food freshness [1] - Among Jiumaojiu's main brands, same-store sales growth rates were reported as follows: Taier at -19.0%, Song Hotpot at -20.1%, and Jiumaojiu at -19.8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's same-store sales are under pressure in 2024 due to external factors such as subdued dining trends and consumer spending, as well as internal adjustments [1][2] Group 1: Same-Store Sales Performance - In 2024, same-store revenue for brands such as Jiumaojiu, Taier, and Songhuoguo is expected to decline by -13%, -19%, and -32% respectively [1] - Jiumaojiu is less affected by the economic downturn due to its lower average transaction value of 55 yuan compared to Taier at 71 yuan and Songhuoguo at 103 yuan [1] Group 2: Operational Adjustments - The company is actively making adjustments to improve operations, including optimizing store models and menu structures [1][2] - Store renovations aim to create a warmer and more stylish environment suitable for family gatherings [1] - The menu is being updated to replace non-core dishes and introduce fresh fish, on-site slaughter, and specialty snacks [1] Group 3: Profitability and Financial Outlook - The company has slowed its expansion strategy in 2024, focusing on store upgrades and closures, which may enhance profitability [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected at 56 million yuan, with core operating profit at 252 million yuan [2] - Profit recovery is anticipated in 2025, with net profits expected to reach 135 million yuan, 164 million yuan, and 203 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 142.37%, 20.97%, and 24.05% respectively [2] Group 4: Supply Chain Development - The company is implementing supply chain improvements, with a central kitchen in Nansha, Guangzhou expected to be operational in 2025 [2] - Additional supply chain developments are planned for Shanghai and Chongqing in 2026-2027, which will support accelerated expansion outside the province [2] Group 5: Investment Rating - The company is viewed as being at the bottom of its fundamental performance, with positive adjustments and a potential turning point on the horizon [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.10, 0.12, and 0.15 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23.39x, 19.33x, and 15.59x [2]