风险提示 华兴证券发布研报称，维持九毛九(09922)"持有"评级与盈利预测，下调目标价29%至1.77港元，对应12 倍2026年P/E，第三季度运营平稳，旗下主要品牌处于调整期，太二、怂火锅和九毛九的同店销售额同 比下滑，太二的降幅在季度内呈现收窄趋势，整体因受门店调整影响，公司全年利润规模或许会略低于 当前的预期。 华兴证券主要观点如下： 公司3Q25运营平稳 九毛九前期发布三季度经营表现，1)截至3Q25，公司拥有太二餐厅530家，其中自营门店509家;怂火锅 71家;九毛九64家，其中自营门店63家;其他品牌21家。2)翻台方面，太二自营门店在中国内地的翻台率 为3.2次/天，其他区域为3.9次/天。怂火锅为2.4次/天;九毛九自营门店翻台率为2.5次/天。3)客单价方 面，太二自营门店中，中国内地为66元，其他区域为155元;怂火锅为100元，九毛九自营门店为58元。 4)同店日均销售额方面，太二自营门店同比-9.3%;怂火锅同比-19.1%;九毛九自营门店同比-14.8%。 预计4Q旗下所有品牌门店调整顺利 1)3Q25，太二同店收入的同比下滑幅度环比1H25有进一步的收窄，9月上旬已经收窄至低 ...

Core Insights - Jiumaojiu Group (09922.HK) reported a decline in same-store daily sales for its brands, with Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu experiencing year-on-year decreases of 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% respectively in Q3 2025, although the declines narrowed compared to Q2, indicating effective operational adjustments and brand upgrades [1][4] - The Chinese dining market is undergoing a significant transformation in consumer perception of "value," particularly among younger consumers who now equate it with a combination of "cost-performance" and "experience," prompting brands to enhance dining environments, service quality, and social attributes to meet new market demands [1] Company Strategy - Jiumaojiu Group's strategic adjustments are representative of industry trends, with its core brand Taier launching the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrade and layout optimization, focusing on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, which aligns with consumer demands for quality and freshness [3][4] - As of the announcement date, Taier has established 106 new model restaurants, with same-store daily sales showing continuous improvement for three consecutive quarters, particularly achieving positive year-on-year growth in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai in Q3 [4] - The group plans to accelerate the rollout of the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants, aiming to expand to over 200 locations by the end of 2025 due to positive market feedback [4] Brand Development - Song Hotpot is focusing on dual upgrades in product offerings and atmosphere, enhancing its fresh product categories and positioning a joyful atmosphere as a core brand asset, transforming dining into a fun and quality social space to attract younger customers [4] - Jiumaojiu's Northwest Cuisine brand is targeting the children's dining sector by developing children's meals, opening experience stores, and incorporating interactive activities to increase family customer loyalty and market competitiveness [4] - The average customer spending level across the main brands has remained relatively stable over several quarters, indicating a shift from reliance on short-term promotions to strengthening product quality and enhancing customer experience, marking a critical step in adapting to the new market normal [4]

Core Insights - The company reported an improvement in same-store sales across its three main brands, with Taier showing the most significant recovery, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [1][2] Group 1: Operational Performance - Taier's same-store daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a significant improvement from a decline of 19.0% in the first half of the year [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, reflecting successful store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] - The company continues to implement its "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrades, with 106 locations operational by the end of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by year-end [1][2] Group 2: Store Structure and Strategy - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) reached 686, with Taier accounting for 530 locations [2] - The company has shifted its strategic focus from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, moving away from price competition [2] - Taier's self-operated table turnover rate was 3.3, with a stable average spending of 74 yuan per customer [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 150 million, 204 million, and 242 million yuan respectively, reflecting confidence in growth drivers [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.2, 11.2, and 9.4 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3] - A target price of 2.24 HKD is set for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on brand strength and product innovation capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The core growth driver for Jiumaojiu (09922) is the accelerated implementation of the Taier "5.0 Fresh Model," entering a phase of expansion and store openings [1] Financial Performance - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to CNY 150 million, CNY 204 million, and CNY 242 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.2x, 11.2x, and 9.4x [1] - The target price for 2026 is set at HKD 2.24, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on brand strength and product innovation capabilities [1] Sales and Store Performance - In Q3, Taier's same-store daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from a 19.0% decline in the first half of the year, marking three consecutive quarters of improvement [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, indicating successful store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] Restaurant Network and Customer Metrics - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) is 686, with Taier accounting for 530, Song Hotpot 71, and Jiumaojiu 64 [2] - The table turnover rate for Taier's self-operated stores is 3.3, with 3.2 in mainland China and 3.9 in other regions; Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu have turnover rates of 2.4 and 2.5 respectively [2] - The average spending per customer at Taier's self-operated stores is CNY 74, while Song Hotpot's is CNY 100, both showing stability over multiple quarters [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has shifted its strategy from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, gradually moving away from price competition [2] - The "5.0 Fresh Model" focuses on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, with 106 locations implementing this model by the end of September, and plans to accelerate promotion to over 200 locations by year-end [2]

Core Viewpoint - The core growth driver for Jiumaojiu (09922) is the accelerated deployment of the Taier "5.0 Fresh Model," entering a phase of expansion and store openings [1] Financial Performance - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 150 million, 204 million, and 242 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.2, 11.2, and 9.4 times [1] - The target price is set at 2.24 HKD based on a 14 times PE for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Sales and Store Performance - In Q3, Taier's same-store average daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 19.0% decline in the first half of the year, marking three consecutive quarters of improvement [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, indicating effective store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] Restaurant Network - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) is 686, with Taier accounting for 530, Song Hotpot 71, Jiumaojiu 64, and others [2] - The average table turnover rate for Taier's self-operated stores is 3.3, with 3.2 in mainland China and 3.9 in other regions [2] Consumer Experience and Strategy - The average consumer spending at Taier's self-operated stores is 74 RMB, while Song Hotpot is 100 RMB, both showing stability over multiple quarters [2] - The company's strategy has shifted from short-term promotions to enhancing product strength and customer experience, gradually moving away from price competition [2] Model Implementation - The "5.0 Fresh Model" is being rapidly implemented, focusing on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, which has led to brand upgrades and improved customer experiences [2] - As of the end of September, 106 locations have adopted the "5.0 Fresh Model," with plans to accelerate promotion to exceed 200 locations by the end of the fourth quarter [2]

Core Insights - Jiumaojiu Group reported its Q3 2025 operational data, indicating that while same-store sales remain under pressure, initial effects of operational adjustments are becoming evident [1][4] - The Taier brand has seen a narrowing decline in same-store sales for three consecutive quarters, with positive year-on-year growth in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai during Q3 [1][3] Group Performance - For Q3 2025, the table turnover rates for Taier (self-operated), Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu (self-operated) were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively, while same-store average daily sales decreased by 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% year-on-year [3] - Despite the overall negative growth, the decline rates for Taier and Jiumaojiu have narrowed compared to Q2, indicating that the group's operational adjustments are having a positive impact [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - Jiumaojiu Group is actively promoting the transformation and upgrade of the Taier brand through the "5.0 Fresh Model," with 106 restaurants already established in mainland China as of the announcement date [3] - The average daily dining revenue for the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants has increased by approximately 15 percentage points compared to conventional stores [3] - The company aims to increase the number of "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants to over 200 by the end of 2025 [3] Menu and Design Changes - The "5.0 Fresh Model" has made significant adjustments to the menu structure, expanding from a single-item strategy centered on sour fish to three main categories: "live fish, fresh chicken, and premium beef," along with a wider selection of hot dishes [3] - Store design has shifted from the previous black-and-white comic style to a warmer atmosphere using natural wood materials, and a "fresh" ingredient display area has been added to enhance the dining experience [3] Market Outlook - According to CMB International's latest research report, while same-store sales remain under pressure, signs of recovery are beginning to emerge [4] - The firm has slightly lowered its profit forecasts for Jiumaojiu for 2025-2027 and adjusted the target price to HKD 2.32, maintaining a "neutral" rating [4] - The challenges faced by Jiumaojiu Group are not only due to internal transformation pressures but are also closely related to changes in the overall restaurant industry environment [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Jiumaojiu (09922) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 7% to a new low of 1.84 HKD, with a trading volume of 22.5 million HKD [1] - Jiumaojiu's third-quarter operational data reveals that same-store sales for its main brands continue to decline, with Taier's same-store sales down 9.3% year-on-year, and declines for Songhuo Hotpot and Jiumaojiu Northwest Cuisine at 19.1% and 14.8%, respectively [1] - Despite the negative same-store sales growth, the decline rates for Taier and Jiumaojiu have narrowed compared to the second quarter, indicating initial positive effects from operational adjustments [1] Group 2 - The company is currently adopting a cautious expansion strategy, with its main brands still under pressure, but has clarified its strategic positioning around "fresh ingredients" [1] - The new "5.0 Fresh Model" for Taier's stores has shown promising performance, and the company plans to accelerate its promotion, which may further improve its performance [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Jiumaojiu (09922) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 7% to a new low of 1.84 HKD, with a trading volume of 22.5 million HKD [1] - Jiumaojiu's third-quarter operational data shows that same-store sales for its main brands continue to decline, with Taier's same-store sales down 9.3% year-on-year, and declines for Songhuo Hotpot and Jiumaojiu Northwest Cuisine reaching 19.1% and 14.8%, respectively [1] - Despite the negative same-store sales growth, Jiumaojiu's brands have shown a narrowing decline compared to the second quarter, indicating initial positive effects from operational adjustments, particularly for Taier, which has improved for three consecutive quarters [1] Group 2 - The company is currently adopting a cautious expansion strategy, with its main brands still under pressure, but has clarified its strategic positioning around "fresh ingredients" [1] - The new "5.0 Fresh Model" for Taier's stores has shown promising performance, and the company plans to accelerate its promotion, which is expected to further improve performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and recovery strategies of Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited, particularly focusing on its flagship brand, Taier Fish, which is attempting to revitalize its business through a "fresh" strategy after facing significant declines in sales and profitability [3][5][8]. Financial Performance - Jiumaojiu's market value has plummeted from a peak of approximately HKD 55 billion to around HKD 2.9 billion, a decline of over 90% [3]. - In 2024, the company's revenue increased by 1.47% to CNY 6.074 billion, but net profit fell by 87% to CNY 55.8 million, with operating profit from stores declining by over 30% [3][5]. - By the end of Q3, Taier's same-store daily sales decline narrowed to 9.3%, marking three consecutive quarters of improvement [2][6]. Business Strategy - The company is shifting its focus from a single product strategy to a "fresh" model, emphasizing live fish and fresh ingredients, which includes a complete redesign of restaurant operations and menu offerings [5][7]. - As of September, 106 Taier locations had completed upgrades, with a goal of over 200 by year-end [2][7]. Market Position and Competition - Despite the challenges, some competitors in the restaurant sector, such as Xiaocaiyuan and Green Tea Group, have reported revenue and profit growth, indicating that not all brands are equally affected by market changes [7]. - Jiumaojiu's current price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 69 times, significantly higher than competitors like Xiaocaiyuan at 17.9 times and Green Tea at 11.9 times, reflecting its low profitability base [7]. Consumer Perception and Future Outlook - The company faces a trust crisis due to the perception of its products as "high-priced prepared dishes," which has been exacerbated by the controversy surrounding pre-prepared meals [5][8]. - The effectiveness of the "fresh" strategy in restoring growth remains to be seen, as the fundamental aspects of being tasty, affordable, and trustworthy are crucial for future success [8].

Core Insights - The well-known restaurant group Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) reported that same-store sales for its main brands continue to decline as of Q3 2025 [2] Group 1: Same-Store Sales Performance - The same-store daily sales changes for major brands as of September 30, 2025, show declines: Tai Er (self-operated) -9.3%, Chong Hot Pot -19.1%, and Jiumaojiu (self-operated) -14.8% [3] - Despite the declines, Tai Er's same-store sales drop has been narrowing for three consecutive quarters, with positive growth in key markets like Beijing and Shanghai [3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The improvement in Tai Er's performance is closely related to the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants, which focus on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef [3] - As of the announcement date, Tai Er has established 106 new model restaurants in mainland China and plans to accelerate this rollout, expecting to exceed 200 by the end of 2025 [3] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The table turnover rate, a key indicator of restaurant operational efficiency, shows differentiation: Tai Er's self-operated stores have a turnover rate of 3.3, compared to Chong Hot Pot's 2.4 and Jiumaojiu's 2.5 [4] - Customer average spending has remained relatively stable across major brands, indicating a strategic shift from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience [4] Group 4: Challenges and Competition - Chong Hot Pot, anticipated to be the "third growth curve," has not met expectations, with a 3.5% decline in revenue and a significant 59.6% drop in segment profit in the first half of the year [4] - The competitive hot pot market presents challenges for Chong Hot Pot, particularly in product differentiation, as its youthful atmosphere has not effectively translated into sustained consumer attraction [4]