Core Insights - The unmanned delivery market is experiencing rapid growth and is seen as a significant opportunity for various players, including established platforms and innovative startups [1] - The competition in the unmanned delivery vehicle sector is intensifying, with new pricing strategies and service models emerging [3][5] Market Dynamics - The price of unmanned delivery vehicles has significantly decreased from around 1 million yuan in 2018 to as low as 19,800 yuan in 2025, indicating a trend of aggressive price competition [3][5] - The shift in business models from bundled sales to value separation is reshaping the market, allowing for more flexible service options [5][12] Competitive Landscape - Major players like New Stone and Nine Sense are deploying thousands of unmanned vehicles, with New Stone aiming for 10,000 units by year-end [6][10] - As the quality and road rights of different brands converge, price and service differentiation are becoming the key competitive factors [9][10] Revenue Structure - The revenue for unmanned delivery companies is derived from vehicle sales and ongoing subscription fees for fully autonomous driving (FSD) services [10][12] - New pricing models introduced by companies like New Stone aim to alleviate concerns over long-term costs and service fee increases [12] Future Outlook - The ongoing price reductions and service model innovations are expected to drive a shift in competition from hardware to operational and service-driven strategies [13] - The unmanned delivery vehicle market is poised for significant transformation, reminiscent of past price wars in other industries such as express delivery and smartphones [13]

Group 1 - The competition in the autonomous vehicle market is intensifying, with New Stone launching a "zero down payment, zero interest, 48-month installment" purchase plan, along with a lifetime free use of the FSD (Full Self-Driving) service [2][4] - New Stone's main models, X3 and X6, are priced at approximately 115,500 yuan and 125,100 yuan respectively, breaking the previous pricing model of separate vehicle and FSD service fees [2][4] - The entry of new players, such as Desay SV, which launched its "Chuanxing Zhiyuan" low-speed autonomous vehicle brand, indicates a growing interest in the last-mile logistics sector [2][5] Group 2 - Previously, mainstream brands followed a pricing structure of vehicle price plus monthly or annual FSD service fees, with examples showing total costs ranging from approximately 12,180 yuan to 15,500 yuan over five years [3][4] - New Stone's approach aims to reduce purchasing costs and attract more users by offering a bundled price, addressing concerns about potential future increases in service fees [4] - The autonomous vehicle market is expected to see significant growth as commercial applications expand, with head manufacturers likely to experience a surge in order volumes [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry [5] Core Insights - Strong demand for unmanned delivery and accelerated application of L4 scenarios are driving the industry forward [2][10] - The automotive sector underperformed the market recently, with a decline of 2.90% in the A-share automotive sector [44] - Key companies to focus on include Geely, BYD, Xiaopeng Motors, Xiaomi Group, Berteli, Top Group, and others [2][24] Summary by Sections 1. Unmanned Delivery Demand - The demand for unmanned delivery is driven by labor shortages and cost pressures, with express delivery volume expected to grow at a CAGR of 22.5% from 2019 to 2024 [2][10] - The penetration rate of L2+ vehicles is projected to exceed 90% by 2030, leading to a cost revolution in the supply chain [2][12] - Policy support is enhancing the deployment of low-speed unmanned vehicles, with over 100 cities expected to open road rights by 2025 [2][22] 2. Passenger Vehicles - The report highlights the importance of intelligent and globalized breakthroughs in quality autonomous vehicle manufacturers [24] - The continuation of vehicle replacement policies is expected to stimulate domestic demand [24][54] 3. Robotics - The report sees a rapid acceleration in the industrialization of robotics, particularly humanoid robots, which are expected to transform production and lifestyle [29][31] - Key players in the robotics field include Tesla, NVIDIA, and Huawei, with significant advancements anticipated in 2025 [31][33] 4. Motorcycles - The market for large-displacement motorcycles is expanding, with a notable increase in sales and exports [36][37] - Recommended companies in this sector include Chunfeng Power, which is a leading player in the large-displacement motorcycle market [37] 5. Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market is expected to recover due to expanded vehicle replacement subsidies, with a focus on low-emission vehicles [38][39] - Recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [39] 6. Tires - The tire industry is experiencing growth driven by high demand and the expansion of global operations [40][42] - Recommended companies include Sailun Tire and high-growth firms like Senkiren [42]