第 563期 2026-02-25 焦点关注 31省份今年财政收入增速目标出炉 随着各地陆续披露今年预算报告和政府工作报告，31个省份2026年财政收入增速目标明晰，总体来看地 方普遍预计今年一般公共预算收入能够实现增长。根据各地官方数据，2026年31个省份地方一般公共预 算收入预计增速在0.5%~10%之间。粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒以2025年各地一般公共预算收入作为 权重测算，今年31个省份一般公共预算收入目标加权平均增长2.7%，与2025年基本持平。 宏观动态 区域热点 广东省获财政部提前下达2026年新增债务限额3412亿元 广东省2025年预算执行情况和2026年预算草案的报告中提到，财政部提前下达我省2026年新增债务限额 3412亿元。一是一般债务192亿元，其中广东地区183亿元 ( 省级承贷128. 33亿元、 转贷市县54.67亿元) 、 深圳市9亿元。二是专项债务3220亿元，其中广东地区2700亿元 (省级承贷178.58亿元、 转贷市县 2521.42 亿元) 、 深圳市520亿元。 安徽省：新增用于项目建设的专项债券1500亿元以上 安徽省人民政府发布印发《关于巩固拓展经济稳 ...

Key Points - The bond market issued over 70,000 billion yuan in November 2025, with various categories including government bonds, local government bonds, financial bonds, corporate credit bonds, asset-backed securities, and interbank certificates of deposit [1] - The Ministry of Finance announced the bond issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026, which includes key term government bonds, short-term government bonds, ultra-long general government bonds, and savings bonds [2] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 5,288 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 5,028 billion yuan [4] - Qingdao initiated the issuance of special bonds for land reserves in 2026, with total financing for land reserve special bonds in 2025 reaching 5,602.71 billion yuan [6] - Beijing, Shandong, Xinjiang, and Hubei announced plans to issue a total of 3,895.21 billion yuan in local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 [6] - The Zhengzhou Transportation Development Investment Group plans to issue 1 billion yuan in green corporate bonds, which has been approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [10] - The Zhengzhou Urban Development Group plans to issue 3.7 billion yuan in corporate bonds, which has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [11] - The New Xiang High-tech Investment Group plans to issue 300 million yuan in rural revitalization corporate bonds, which has been approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [13] - The Henan Urban and Rural Comprehensive Investment Company plans to issue 2 billion yuan in bonds to support small and micro enterprises, which has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [17] - The credit rating of Shaanxi Tourism Group has been upgraded from AA+ to AAA, with a stable outlook [19] - The credit quality of local government financing platforms is expected to remain stable in 2025, with a focus on debt replacement and risk mitigation [22] - The refinancing environment for local government financing platforms is expected to remain tight in 2026, with strict controls on new financing [23] - The transformation of local government financing platforms is essential, with mergers and acquisitions expected to continue [24] - New policies targeting the management and resolution of operating debts of platform companies are anticipated in 2027 [25]

Group 1 - Shanxi province has long relied on traditional resource industries like coal, leading to a single industrial structure and weak risk resistance, necessitating economic transformation and diversified industrial support [1] - Financial services are crucial for economic transformation, with Shanxi Jin Kong Group coordinating 21 subsidiaries to support energy transition, industrial upgrading, and moderate diversification [1] Group 2 - Northern Copper Industry has achieved a full industrial chain layout from "copper ore" to "copper foil," with a total investment of 1.4 billion yuan for a new production line starting in 2024, of which 700 million yuan comes from a targeted fundraising [5] - The company has seen significant growth linked to capital market activities, including a reverse merger listing in 2021 and a 6 billion yuan funding support during its restructuring phase [5] Group 3 - Shanxi Jin Kong Group's comprehensive capital market services cover over 90% of large state-owned enterprises in Shanxi [7] - Shanxi Jiaokong has successfully issued the province's first rural revitalization corporate bond, raising 7.4 billion yuan through multiple technology innovation bond issuances with a record low interest rate of 1.93% [6] Group 4 - Shanxi Aerospace Guotai focuses on methane emission control, converting low-concentration gas into energy, with a 1.31 billion yuan industry fund established to support this initiative [8][9] - The company has achieved significant carbon reduction, saving 10.2 million tons of standard coal annually through its projects [9] Group 5 - The establishment of a data-driven service system aims to enhance financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises, addressing inefficiencies in market entry and data integration [12][13] - This system has already served over 900,000 enterprises, facilitating 34.126 billion yuan in financing and supporting 29 companies in transitioning to the New Third Board [13] Group 6 - Shanxi Jin Kong Group is expanding its data market presence with the establishment of the Shanxi Data Trading Center, which will support various sectors beyond traditional industries [15][16] - The group aims to integrate digital finance with green and technological development, aligning with the province's economic transformation goals [15]

Core Insights - Shanxi province, heavily reliant on traditional resource industries like coal, faces the challenge of economic transformation and diversification of its industrial structure [1] - Financial services play a crucial role in supporting this transformation, with Shanxi Jin Kong Group coordinating various financial subsidiaries to aid in energy transition and industrial upgrades [1][4] Financial Market Services - The capital market is being leveraged to enhance the efficiency and quality of state-owned enterprises, with North Copper Industry planning a new production line with a total investment of 1.4 billion yuan, partly funded by a directed issuance of 700 million yuan [2] - North Copper Industry's growth has been closely tied to capital market activities, including a reverse merger in 2021 and significant financial support during its restructuring phase [3] Investment Funds and Technology - Shanxi Aerospace Guotai is utilizing methane from coal mines for energy generation, supported by a 131 million yuan industry fund established in 2018, which has led to significant carbon reduction [5][6] - Shanxi Taihang Industry Fund has invested in Shanxi Haiyu Food, helping the company grow from a small workshop to a 600 million yuan annual revenue enterprise through multiple rounds of funding and operational improvements [6] Government Investment Funds - Shanxi Jin Kong Group manages nine provincial government investment funds totaling 31.2 billion yuan, supporting over 150 projects, including the establishment of angel funds and low-altitude economy funds [7] Data and Digital Finance - The Shanxi Equity Exchange is addressing inefficiencies in the capital market for SMEs by creating a comprehensive data-driven service platform that integrates various public credit information [8][9] - This data-driven approach has already benefited 905,000 market entities, facilitating significant financing for projects and enhancing the regional digital financial ecosystem [9] Green and Technological Development - Digital finance is identified as a key component of Shanxi's development strategy, aimed at supporting green and technological initiatives while contributing to the province's economic transformation [10]

Core Insights - The central financial work conference in October 2023 highlighted "inclusive finance" as one of the "five major articles" for financial development in China, indicating a significant policy focus on this area [2][3] - The implementation of the "High-Quality Development Plan for Inclusive Finance" by the National Financial Supervision Administration and the People's Bank of China in June 2025 marks a shift from principles to detailed guidelines, accelerating the progress of inclusive finance [4][5] Financial Services - Inclusive finance has become a key driver for economic growth and social equity, with a focus on providing affordable financial services to various social groups, including small and micro enterprises, farmers, and low-income urban residents [3][7] - The People's Bank of China has increased the quota for re-lending to support agriculture and small enterprises, raising the total quota to 3 trillion yuan, with a current interest rate of 1.5% for re-lending [6][7] Insurance Sector - Inclusive insurance is expanding to cover health risks and support rural revitalization, with various projects like "Hui Min Bao" providing affordable health insurance to millions [8][10] - The government is promoting a diverse range of insurance products tailored to the needs of small enterprises and specific groups, enhancing the safety net for vulnerable populations [9][10] Capital Markets - The capital market is emerging as a new engine for inclusive finance, with initiatives to enhance its accessibility and effectiveness in serving small and micro enterprises [11][12] - By the end of 2025, regional equity markets are expected to support around 180,000 enterprises, primarily small businesses, indicating a growing role for capital markets in inclusive finance [11][12] Challenges and Future Directions - Despite progress, challenges remain in providing affordable financial services to various demographics, particularly in rural areas and for new employment forms [13][14] - The need for innovative financial products and services tailored to the unique needs of different groups is critical for the continued development of inclusive finance [14][15]

Group 1 - The issuance of technology innovation bonds has accelerated since the implementation of the new policy on May 7, with a total of 442 bonds issued, raising 630.71 billion yuan in two months [1] - Nine companies from Henan have collectively raised over 10 billion yuan through technology innovation bonds [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced measures to expand the range of participants in the Bond Connect Southbound scheme, including brokers and asset management companies [3] Group 2 - Two leading credit rating agencies are planning to introduce simplified "one-page" credit rating reports starting in August, requiring investors to register as institutional investors to access full reports [5] - The People's Bank of China is actively researching further measures to promote the opening of the bond market, including enhancing cross-border financing convenience and enriching the offshore RMB financial market product system [6][8] - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a notice to support qualified enterprises in issuing bonds for zero-carbon park construction [6] Group 3 - The Tianjin government encourages qualified venture capital institutions to issue corporate bonds and debt financing tools for equity investment [11] - Fujian Province plans to issue 262.2682 million yuan in special new bonds as part of a total issuance of 599.584 million yuan [12] - The Anqing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued guidelines to strengthen debt risk management for state-owned enterprises [13] Group 4 - Luoyang Guoxing Industrial Investment Company plans to issue 600 million yuan in rural revitalization corporate bonds [14] - Jiaozuo Construction Investment (Holding) Company has completed the issuance of 300 million yuan in corporate bonds with an interest rate of 2.75% [16] - Nanyang High-tech Development Investment Group intends to issue up to 1.7 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with the underwriting fee set at 2‰ per year [17] Group 5 - Dongfang Jincheng predicts that the bond market will continue to experience fluctuations, with expectations of marginal improvement in inflation data for June [19] - Despite the central bank's significant net withdrawal, the funding environment remains loose, potentially leading to further declines in short-term interest rates [19] - The overall bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with a steepening yield curve anticipated [19]