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从PCB基本盘到先进封装第二曲线-再论芯碁微装成长空间
2026-03-01 17:22
摘要 公司 PCB 业务基本盘稳固,受益于 LDI 设备量价齐升及规格升级,预计 2026 年出货量将显著提升,设备均价也将上涨,主要由更高规格设备 需求驱动,从而抬升 PCB 板块 ASP。 IC 载板业务方面,国内市场空间广阔,公司目标占据可观市场份额。虽 然面临海外竞争压力,但国内暂无直接竞争对手,设备单价较高,中期 判断公司国内市占率有望先达到约 30%。 二氧化碳激光钻业务进入放量阶段,预计 2026 年出货量大幅增加。行 业供不应求,龙头扩产谨慎,公司有望通过导入国产设备抢占市场份额, 匹配市场紧缺性并形成导入机会。 先进封装业务被视为公司切入半导体设备板块的重要抓手,已跨越"0 到 1"阶段,进入"1 到 10"的突破阶段,预计 2026 年出货量显著增长, 头部客户采购已从少量验证转向通线量产机台。 不同先进封装路线对 LDI 的需求各异,CoWoS L 阶段明确需要,且对 国内封测厂商具备必要性。公司在先进封装 LDI 方向国内未见直接竞争 对手,海外主要为日本企业,台积电亦在关注该类技术。 Q&A 从 PCB 基本盘到先进封装第二曲线,再论芯碁微装成长空 间 20260301 如何拆分新琪 ...
Q布观点更新
2025-12-29 01:04
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The Q fabric (Q 布) industry is experiencing a significant boost due to the deployment of A-grade chips, which is enhancing the overall PCB (Printed Circuit Board) market sentiment. The market is particularly focused on the store segment, driven by projected demand for AI PCBs and the value share of CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) in 2026 [2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - The announcement of NVIDIA's CPS (Cloud Processing Service) solution has clarified the market's understanding of the supply-demand relationship, with approximately 1,000 million meters of demand already met for 70% of PCB capacity compensation [2][4]. - In 2026, the demand is expected to increase significantly, with Robin's mass production of the Switch version anticipated to add around 4 million meters of demand. If Google's TPU V8 series adopts the proposed repair solution, an additional 8 million meters of demand could arise, potentially doubling total demand from 1,000 million meters to over 2,000 million meters [2][5][6]. - Looking ahead to 2027, if NVIDIA's ROPIN ULTRA series fully adopts the proposed solutions and Google's TPU V8 and V9 chips reach a production target of 5 million units, total demand could exceed 80 million meters [6]. Production Challenges - The production of Q fabric faces three main challenges: 1. High purity and low impurity requirements for quartz raw material. 2. Complex quartz rod drawing processes that require uniformity control and are prone to breakage. 3. Strict weaving processes that involve maintaining smoothness and applying lubricants [7]. - Currently, only two suppliers, Feiliwa and Asahi Kasei, can produce quartz fibers with a dielectric constant DF value below 5/10,000 in small batches. Feiliwa has a mature drawing process capable of supporting 300,000 meters of customer production monthly, with plans to expand to a capacity of 1,200 million meters by 2026 [7]. Company-Specific Developments - New Qimei Beauty Company is optimistic about its prospects in the PCB equipment sector, with new products like CO2 laser drills and advanced packaging expected to ramp up production next year. The company is positioned to benefit from the rising PCB market, potentially achieving a second growth curve and enhancing its valuation [3][8]. - Other domestic companies, such as Xi'an Laide Optoelectronics, are also making strides in the Q fabric supply chain, including upstream quartz mining and downstream weaving processes. Shanghai Telai Crystal is expected to reach a production capacity of 1 million meters per month by 2027, contingent on successful capacity construction and validation [9].