2025 年 08 月 23 日 市值扩张路上机会频现 策略研究团队 ——投资策略周报 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 证券化率指标—判断指数牛估值空间的一种参考 本轮行情与分子端盈利表现出现一定错位。我们在 2025 年 7 月 12 日发布的报告《剖 析市场突破的核心动力》中指出，从交易行为、资金流向到制度支持，多重因素共 同构筑了市场上行的内在基础。在宏观预期相对缺位的背景下，本轮行情与以往典 型的"指数牛"存在相似特征：分子端盈利修复未成为主导力量，指数突破上行更 多依赖于资金承载力的增强与主题交易的活跃。因此，我们在《证券化率看牛市估 值》中提出可将证券化率指标（股市总市值与 GDP 之比）作为识别估值高点的有效 参考工具。其突破 1 倍的位置应作为估值的重要关注点。展望后市，指数中枢有望 进一步上移，两市总市值增长态势有望延续。 北证 50 的"新中枢"或将确立 在本周的《北证 50：从关键突破到新中枢确立》中，我们认为近期北证 50 ...

21 August 2025 | 12:52AM HKT JCET (600584.SS): Automotive and advanced packaging drive rising R&D and capacity expansion; 2Q25 miss; Neutral 2Q25 miss: JCET's 2Q25 revenues was +7% YoY/ -1% QoQ to Rmb9.3m, 17% / 9% below our / Bloomberg consensus estimates, which we attribute to softer than expected revenues from consumer electronics, which was a slight YoY decrease in 1H25, while other segments (communication, computation, automobile, industrial and healthcare) achieved double-digit revenue YoY growth duri ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源 ：内容来自 镜报 。 封装产能持续满载，不只有封测白名单带来的转单效应，AI驱动下的先进封装需求也持续高涨， 日月光在8月11日公告花65亿元买下稳懋在南科高雄产区的厂房，展现稳固龙头地位，并近一步扩 大版图的企图心，业内人士也分析，这次转单效应，日月光正是最大受惠者。 封测产能持续满载，尤其在封测白名单转单效应持续发酵下，业界预估营收贡献很快会看到。为了 因应产能全面满载，半导体封测龙头日月光投控在8月11日公告，旗下日月光半导体将以新台币65 亿元向稳懋半导体购买位于高雄路竹区的南科高雄园区厂房及附属设施，日月光向本报表示，这将 用于扩充先进封装产能。 业内人士分析，日月光集团原先就有中国厂，旗下矽品也有中国苏州厂，专门服务中国客户，这次 因为美国对中国半导体扩大管制而颁布的「封测白名单」，符合规定的除了上面表列的业者外，厂 房还不能在中国，在中国业界品质有口碑的日月光，将会是转单最大受惠者。 中国封测产业蓬勃发展，除了原先最具代表性的长电科技外，现在还有天水华天、通富微电，不过 业内人士表示，中国客户还是会到日月光中国厂乃至矽品苏州厂，正是因为考量品质、 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.12% to 3638.40, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.13% and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.52% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.21 trillion CNY, showing a significant increase compared to the previous day, with 2275 stocks rising and 2917 stocks falling [1] Semiconductor Sector Performance - The semiconductor industry chain experienced a significant surge, with stocks related to IGBT, advanced packaging, and memory rising sharply [2][4] - Notable stocks included Huahong Semiconductor, which rose over 4%, leading the Hang Seng Technology Index [2][4] - Specific stocks like Jinghua Microelectronics and Fuman Microelectronics hit the daily limit up, with increases of 20% [5] Pharmaceutical Sector Trends - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors showed mixed performance, with medical device stocks remaining active while CRO, innovative drugs, and weight loss drugs faced declines [8] - Qianhong Pharmaceutical saw a significant drop, hitting the limit down, while other stocks like Borui Pharmaceutical and Huahai Pharmaceutical fell over 6% [9] Hong Kong Market Movements - The three major indices in Hong Kong showed a slight upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.52% and the Hang Seng Technology Index up by 0.54% [2] - The pharmaceutical sector in Hong Kong also faced declines, with companies like Kangfang Biotech and Xinda Biotech experiencing significant drops [10][11] Caocao Mobility Developments - Caocao Mobility's stock surged over 19%, reaching a peak of 58.9 HKD per share, following the announcement of a strategic cooperation memorandum with Victory Securities [13] - The collaboration focuses on the tokenization of real-world assets and compliance in digital currency issuance, indicating potential growth in the company's operations [13]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12% to close at 3633.99, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.13% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.52% [2][3] - The total market turnover reached 1.21 trillion CNY, showing a significant increase compared to the previous day [5] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry chain experienced a strong rally, with key sectors such as IGBT, advanced packaging, and memory chips seeing substantial gains [5][9] - Notable stocks included East China Semiconductor and Fuman Micro, both hitting the daily limit up of 20% [9][10] - The overall semiconductor sector rose by 2.13%, with specific segments like memory chips increasing by 2.40% [7] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector showed mixed performance, with medical devices remaining active while CRO, innovative drugs, and weight-loss drugs faced declines [15] - Qianhong Pharmaceutical saw a significant drop, hitting the limit down with a decrease of 10.01% [16] - The sector's downturn was reflected in the broader market, with many pharmaceutical stocks declining over 6% [15][17] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market also showed positive movement, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.52% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.54% [5] - Notable performers included Huahong Semiconductor, which surged over 4% [5][8] Other Notable Stocks - Apple’s supply chain stocks maintained upward momentum, with companies like Furi Electronics achieving a four-day consecutive rise [11] - Cao Cao Travel saw a significant increase of over 19% following a strategic partnership announcement with Victory Securities [18][20]

Core Insights - The advanced packaging market is projected to grow from $38 billion to $79 billion by 2030, driven by diverse demands and challenges while maintaining a continuous upward trend [2] - The advanced packaging supply chain is one of the most dynamic sub-sectors of the global semiconductor supply chain, influenced by various factors including capacity constraints, yield challenges, and geopolitical regulations [5] - High-end performance packaging is expected to reach $8 billion in 2024 and exceed $28 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% [11] Market Growth and Trends - Advanced packaging is experiencing record breakthroughs and expanding its technology portfolio, including new versions of existing technologies like Intel's EMIB and Foveros [8] - The high-end packaging market's largest segment is telecommunications and infrastructure, generating over 67% of revenue in 2024, while the mobile and consumer market is the fastest-growing segment with a CAGR of 50% [11] - The adoption of hybrid bonding technology is increasing, making it more challenging for OSAT manufacturers, as only those with wafer fab capabilities can absorb significant yield losses [14] Supply Chain Dynamics - New alliances are forming to address supply chain challenges, with key advanced packaging technologies being licensed to support transitions to new business models [5] - Major memory manufacturers like Yangtze Memory Technologies, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are expected to dominate the high-end packaging market, capturing 54% of the market share by 2024 [14] - Leading OSAT companies are focusing on high-end packaging solutions based on ultra-high-definition fan-out (UHD FO) and Mold interposer technologies [15] Technological Innovations - The main technological trend in high-end performance packaging is the reduction of interconnect spacing, which is crucial for integrating more complex chips and ensuring lower power consumption [16] - 3D SoC hybrid bonding is emerging as a key technology pillar for next-generation advanced packaging, allowing for smaller interconnect spacing and increased surface area [16] - Chipsets and heterogeneous integration are driving high-end performance packaging applications, with major players like Intel and AMD adopting these technologies in their products [17]

Group 1 - The market has experienced a slight pause after five consecutive weeks of growth, with new capital's marginal profit effect weakening. The financing balance growth rate in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is slowing down, indicating a neutral oscillation range of 7%-10% [2][12][13] - The report emphasizes that the current market structure is increasingly clear, driven by two main lines: the "anti-involution" leading to a cyclical and pro-cyclical trading PPI recovery, and the strong elasticity provided by global technology collaboration [2][12][58] Group 2 - The report identifies that despite the current low PPI levels, there is potential for marginal improvement due to a loose liquidity environment, which may accelerate valuation recovery. This is supported by two signals: the credit transmission providing leading signals for PPI recovery and the structural divergence between CRB and PPI [3][14][17] - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed a shift towards PPI trading, with core assets in cyclical consumption likely to experience valuation recovery, thus supporting the index [3][21][25] Group 3 - The TMT sector is highlighted as a core area for institutional long-term allocation, driven by a "fan effect" that attracts consensus among funds. The sector has shown significant trading activity, particularly in the communication sub-sector, which has gained traction as other sectors have seen a decline in trading volume [4][37][38] - The semiconductor industry is entering an upward phase, with conditions for transitioning from "expectation recovery" to "economic verification" being met. The report notes that the current semiconductor cycle is characterized by strong demand driven by AI and high-performance computing needs [4][47][49] Group 4 - The report suggests a strategic allocation in the current market environment, recommending a focus on technology, military, anti-involution, PPI diffusion directions, and stable dividends. Specific sectors include AI, robotics, semiconductors, and cyclical sectors like insurance and real estate, which are expected to benefit from PPI recovery [5][58]

Core Viewpoint - The recovery in industrial and automotive demand is expected to improve wafer foundry capacity utilization, with leading fabs likely to achieve performance growth due to the established trend of localized production [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Outlook and Investment Recommendations - As downstream industries in industrial and automotive sectors begin to replenish inventory, demand for BCD Analog is anticipated to grow, leading to an expected increase in wafer foundry capacity utilization in Q2 and the second half of the year [1]. - According to TrendForce, the capacity utilization rate for mature processes is projected to slightly increase to over 75% as terminal markets such as smartphones, PCs, and servers are expected to recover year-on-year growth by 2025 [1]. - In Q1, SMIC reported a 4.1% increase in overall capacity utilization, reaching over 90% for both 8-inch and 12-inch wafers, indicating a positive trend in capacity utilization [1]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Local Production Trends - SMIC is expected to increase its 12-inch wafer capacity by approximately 50,000 pieces annually, with capital expenditure for 2025 projected to remain around $7.5 billion, consistent with the previous year [2]. - Advanced packaging capacity, led by fabs, is becoming scarce, as advanced packaging relies on chip manufacturing capabilities that are the strong suit of fabs rather than traditional packaging factories [2]. - The integration of advanced packaging services into fabs is creating ecological barriers, as high-performance chip design and packaging are becoming increasingly intertwined [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Bay Area Semiconductor Expo (Bay Chip Expo) will be held from October 15-17, 2025, in Shenzhen, showcasing the future of the semiconductor industry through high-level discussions, technical forums, and international cooperation [1][3][30]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Bay Area Semiconductor Expo will feature the Bay Area Semiconductor Conference, including two high-end seminars, an opening ceremony, and over 20 technical forums, gathering industry leaders and experts [1][3]. - The event aims to create a high-end platform for technology exchange, industry collaboration, international cooperation, and ecological co-creation [3]. Group 2: High-End Seminars - The event will host a closed-door strategic seminar with top 20 leaders from the semiconductor industry, including executives from ASML and Applied Materials, to discuss future development directions [4][8]. - The Ninth International Advanced Lithography Technology Seminar will focus on cutting-edge advancements in lithography technology and its future [9][11]. Group 3: Technical Forums - Over 20 technical forums will cover various topics, including lithography technology, talent development, investment and financing strategies, and AI applications [16][18]. - The forums will feature discussions on wafer manufacturing, advanced packaging, and IC design, providing insights into the latest technological innovations and industry trends [19][27]. Group 4: Industry Insights - According to the SIA report, global semiconductor sales are expected to exceed $600 billion in 2024, with a projected double-digit percentage growth in 2025, driven primarily by AI applications [13]. - The opening ceremony and semiconductor industry development summit will focus on the impact of AI on chip design and semiconductor manufacturing, inviting experts to share insights on market dynamics [13][15]. Group 5: Additional Activities - The conference will also include forums on investment strategies, overseas expansion, and talent cultivation, along with product launches and award ceremonies to stimulate innovation and industry consensus [28][30]. - The event aims to integrate the innovation chain, talent chain, capital chain, and ecological chain to build a comprehensive semiconductor industry ecosystem [28].

Core Viewpoint - The advanced packaging market is expected to grow significantly, driven by trends in generative AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and the recovery of mobile and consumer markets, with a projected increase from $37.8 billion in 2023 to $69.5 billion by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.9% [2][44]. Group 1: Overview of Advanced Packaging - Advanced packaging differs from traditional packaging in terms of equipment, materials, and technology, offering advantages such as miniaturization, lightweight, high density, low power consumption, and functional integration [6]. - The advanced packaging market in China has seen rapid growth, increasing from 42 billion yuan in 2019 to 79 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected market size of 134 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 9% from 2024 to 2029 [8][10]. Group 2: Application Areas of Advanced Packaging - System-in-Package (SiP) is a key growth driver in the advanced packaging market, with the consumer electronics sector being the largest downstream application, accounting for 70% of SiP applications [14]. - High-Density Flip Chip (FC) packaging has significant growth potential in mobile and consumer markets, with the FC-CSP segment expected to exceed $10 billion by 2026 [17]. - The QFN/DFN packaging market is projected to grow from $13.65 billion in 2023 to $30.68 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of approximately 9.42% [22][24]. - MEMS packaging is also gaining attention, with a market size of around $2.7 billion in 2022 and a CAGR of 16.7% from 2016 to 2022 [25]. Group 3: Representative Technologies in Advanced Packaging - Wafer Level Chip Scale Packaging (WLCSP) is characterized by its ability to provide higher bandwidth, speed, and reliability, with a market size expected to grow from $18.45 billion in 2023 to $43.5 billion by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of around 10% [27][29]. - WLCSP is widely applied in various fields, including consumer electronics, automotive, telecommunications, and healthcare, driven by the rise of IoT devices and smart technologies [37]. Group 4: Market Space and Forecast - The advanced packaging market is projected to reach $80 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 12.7%, driven by AI and HPC applications [68]. - Advanced packaging shipment volume is expected to increase from 70.9 billion units in 2023 to 97.6 billion units by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.5% [70]. - The total advanced packaging wafer output is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 11.6% from 2023 to 2029, with 2.5D/3D packaging expected to see the highest growth rate of 32.1% [73]. Group 5: Related Companies in Advanced Packaging - Key players in the advanced packaging sector include companies like JCET, which focuses on sensor packaging and has established a leading position in the WLCSP market [50]. - Other notable companies include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which has developed advanced packaging technologies across various applications, and Huatian Technology, which specializes in advanced packaging solutions for automotive and consumer electronics [50].