证 券 研 究 报 告 海天精工（601882）跟踪点评 强推（维持） 盈利能力在"反内卷"下有望修复 目标价：26.18 元 事项： ❖ 7 月 1 日中央财经委员会第六次会议强调"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"， 提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产 能有序退出"，同日《求是》发文《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》。"反 内卷"成为制造业后续核心方向之一。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,352 | 3,732 | 4,285 | 4,889 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.9% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 14.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 523 | 620 | 730 | 848 | | 同比增速(%) | -14.2% | 18.6% | 17.7% | 16.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.40 | 1.62 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in both revenue and profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to weak demand and intense industry price competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 740 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.17% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 99 million yuan, down 24.17% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit was 85 million yuan, a decline of 20.35% year-on-year [1] Profitability Analysis - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was approximately 25.93%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points year-on-year - Net margin for Q1 2025 was about 13.37%, down 3.88 percentage points year-on-year - The significant drop in net margin was attributed to: 1. Increase in operating expense ratio by 1.99 percentage points to 10.85% 2. Decrease in other income by approximately 6.7 million yuan 3. Reduction in investment income by about 3.33 million yuan 4. Increase in asset impairment losses by approximately 2.35 million yuan [2] Cash Flow and R&D Investment - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 12 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.33% - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 reached 36 million yuan, an increase of 8.08% year-on-year, maintaining a high R&D expense ratio of 4.85% - Continuous R&D investment is crucial for enhancing product competitiveness and advancing core component self-research [3] Strategic Outlook - The machine tool industry is likely at the bottom of its cycle, with potential demand growth from policies like "Two New" and "Two Heavy" - The company is expanding its product line and upgrading technology through sustained R&D investment - Production capacity will be enhanced at the Guangdong subsidiary, and the Ningbo high-end CNC machine tool intelligent production base project is progressing - Global marketing efforts are being established, with subsidiaries in Germany and Serbia already set up - As manufacturing industry conditions improve, the company's performance is expected to gradually recover [4] Long-term Projections - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company is expected to benefit from policy opportunities and structural growth - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 555 million yuan, 650 million yuan, and 759 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18x, 15x, and 13x [4]

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨海天精工（601882.SH） [Table_Title] 海天精工：Q1 盈利能力有所下降，期待制造业 筑底修复 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 一季报，25Q1 实现营收 7.40 亿元，同比-2.17%；归母净利润 0.99 亿元，同比 -24.17%；扣非归母净利润 0.85 亿元，同比-20.35%。24 年公司产品销量保持稳健增长，卧加 机型表现较为亮眼。分产品来看，24 年公司龙门、卧加、立加销量分别同比增长 11.4%/32.0%/4.5%。公司短期业绩虽有所承压，但中长期仍将持续受益于政策机遇、自主可控、 出海等结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 臧雄 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490518070005 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BVO790 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 海天精工（601882.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 海天精工：Q12] 盈利能力有所下降，期待制造业 ...