2025年，一场席卷全球的关税风暴远未结束，它只是全球贸易格局重塑、产业链再分配以及金融市场风险释放的序章。没有人能预知未来走向，所有经济体 都屏息以待，等待下一个拐点的降临。 美国此次实施的"对等关税"，实质上是将各国长期存在的无形贸易壁垒折算成税率，再打个五折计入关税表中。亚洲国家因其较高的非货币壁垒，成为这场 关税战的"重灾区"。 举例来说，亚洲出口国的关税普遍偏高：越南20%，柬埔寨、印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国均为19%，而欧盟、日本、韩国为15%， 台湾地区则高达20%，比韩国高出5个百分点。 就连瑞士、加拿大等发达经济体也未能幸免，被纳入40%的高税率行列，与叙利亚、老挝、缅甸等"治理能力 差"的国家同列一表，全球贸易秩序因此变得扑朔迷离。印度和墨西哥分别面临25%的高税率，虽然墨西哥尚有90天缓冲期，或许能争取到20%的"优惠"，但 因在俄乌战争期间采购俄罗斯石油而被特朗普直接点名的印度，未来能否降税则充满不确定性。中国与美国的谈判仍在持续，外界密切关注中国的谈判筹码 在其他国家纷纷签署协议后是否会减少，预测最终关税或许能从30%以上降至25%左右，但压力无疑是真实的。 回顾4月到8月的市场反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff policies and interest rate cycles on gold prices, predicting a wide range of fluctuations in the second half of the year, with potential upward movement towards $4,000 in early next year [8]. Market Performance - On July 8, international gold prices opened at $3,338.19 per ounce, reached a high of $3,345.53, and then fell to a low of $3,286.89, closing at $3,301.49, marking a daily decline of $36.7 or 1.1% [1]. - The daily trading range was $58.44, indicating significant volatility [1]. Influencing Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar index and rising US Treasury yields have put pressure on gold prices, as market sentiment improved with expectations of trade agreements between the US and its partners [3][4]. - Despite some countries receiving temporary relief from tariffs, overall tax rates have increased, raising economic concerns [3][7]. - The US public debt is nearing $30 trillion, with a projected deficit of nearly $2 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, which could impact the dollar's long-term stability [7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential top formation for gold prices, with expectations of a decline to around $3,000 or $2,600 if key support levels are breached [10]. - Current trading is above the May moving average, suggesting a bullish trend remains intact unless this support is broken [10]. - The daily chart shows increased bearish momentum, with expectations of further declines towards the lower Bollinger Band and 100-day moving average support [12]. Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to maintain a wide trading range between $3,000 and $3,400 in the second half of the year, with a potential bullish trend resuming in early next year [8]. - Key upcoming events include the release of the US wholesale sales data, which is anticipated to be bearish for gold prices [5].

Group 1 - The proposed 500% tariff on countries importing energy from Russia, particularly targeting China and India, is seen as a geopolitical maneuver by the U.S. to disrupt Russian funding for the war and force China and India to choose sides [1][3][5] - India has responded to the tariff threat by announcing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth $725 million, following a previous response to U.S. tariffs on Indian auto parts [3][5] - China has a more stable response strategy, leveraging its diversified energy import network and asserting its position against unilateral sanctions from the U.S. [9][11] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions have led to significant shifts in energy trade dynamics, with China and India becoming major buyers of Russian oil, accounting for 17% and 40% of their total oil imports, respectively [3][5] - The U.S. strategy aims to reshape the global energy order while simultaneously impacting its own supply chains and inflation rates, as highlighted by warnings from U.S. businesses regarding the potential fallout from the tariffs [5][13] - The ongoing trade tensions are contributing to a gradual decline in U.S. dollar dominance, with increasing instances of currency swaps and local currency settlements in energy transactions between China, Russia, and India [9][13][15] Group 3 - The agricultural negotiations between the U.S. and India have reached a stalemate, with India refusing to compromise on key agricultural products, indicating a potential economic crisis for India if tariffs are imposed [7][11] - The situation reflects a broader trend of countries reassessing their trade dependencies and seeking to diversify their supply chains in response to U.S. tariffs, as seen with Chinese companies relocating production to Southeast Asia [15] - The historical context of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is invoked, suggesting that current U.S. tariff policies could lead to similar economic repercussions globally [11][15]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent and WTI crude oil prices will remain low and weak in 2025-2026 compared to current levels [1] - The firm has consistently taken a bearish stance on oil prices, citing an oversupply in the market and a potential peak in U.S. shale oil production occurring earlier and at lower levels than previously expected [1][2] - Other major Wall Street banks, including Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, share similar forecasts of significant oversupply in the oil market leading to declining prices through 2026 [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts downward, expecting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel in 2025 and $55 in 2026, while WTI is expected to average $56 and $51 respectively [2] - In a scenario of a typical U.S. economic recession and moderate OPEC production increases, Brent prices could drop to $58 by December 2025 and $50 by December 2026 [2] - If global GDP slows significantly and OPEC maintains moderate production increases, Brent prices could fall to $54 and $45 by the same dates [2] Group 3 - Analysis of President Trump's social media activity indicates a preference for oil prices between $40 and $50 per barrel, which may influence market sentiment [3] - Concerns over potential increases in OPEC+ supply have contributed to a decline in Brent crude prices, which recently fell to around $64.5 per barrel [3] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised concerns about global energy demand, further impacting oil prices [5] Group 4 - The international oil market is currently in a sensitive phase, with mixed factors affecting supply and demand [5] - Potential cautious signals from OPEC+ regarding production increases could provide temporary support for oil prices [5] - Traders are awaiting further policy developments from the Trump administration and OPEC+ capacity signals to assess the supply-demand balance for the second half of the year [5]

Core Insights - Top investors are adjusting their portfolios defensively in response to market uncertainties, with notable strategies including cash holdings and sector rotations [1][4]. Group 1: Warren Buffett's Strategy - Buffett has maintained a strong position in Apple, holding 300 million shares valued at approximately $66.6 billion, which constitutes 25% of his portfolio [3]. - He completely liquidated his position in Citigroup, selling 14.64 million shares, and reduced his holdings in Bank of America by over 7% [3]. - Buffett's cautious approach reflects a broader skepticism towards traditional financial sectors amid market volatility [3][4]. Group 2: George Soros' Defensive Moves - Soros Fund Management has shifted to a defensive posture, completely selling its 752,000 shares in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, impacting its portfolio by -3.41% [5]. - The fund significantly increased its holdings in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF by 165.93%, now holding 314,000 shares, indicating a preference for larger companies over small-cap stocks [5]. Group 3: Bridgewater's Investment Adjustments - Bridgewater Associates made substantial changes, including a $300 million investment in SPDR Gold ETF, marking it as their sixth-largest holding [6][7]. - The fund reduced its position in major tech stocks like Google and Nvidia by over 15% and 18%, respectively, while increasing its stake in Alibaba and JD.com [9][8]. Group 4: Bill Ackman's Preemptive Moves - Bill Ackman sold all 18.76 million shares of Nike before the announcement of tariffs, demonstrating a proactive approach to potential trade risks [10][11]. - Ackman increased his position in Uber by 30.3 million shares, making it his largest holding at 18.5% of his portfolio [11]. Group 5: David Tepper's Cautious Optimism - David Tepper reduced his Alibaba holdings by 22.06%, while still maintaining it as his largest position, reflecting a cautious optimism towards Chinese assets [12][15]. - Tepper also decreased his stakes in Microsoft and completely exited positions in AMD and FedEx, indicating a selective approach to technology investments [15]. Group 6: Renaissance Technologies' Focus on Cryptocurrency - Renaissance Technologies increased its stake in Robinhood Markets by over 37%, making it the fourth-largest position, signaling confidence in the cryptocurrency market [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates a weaker-than-expected global oil demand growth and a continuous accumulation of inventories, leading to expectations of a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [1][7] - As of May 6, 2025, the average global oil demand was 103.5 million barrels per day, showing a year-on-year increase of only 280,000 barrels per day, which is nearly half of the expected growth of 550,000 barrels per day [1] - The first week of May saw a decrease of 4 million barrels in visible OECD commercial crude and refined oil inventories, although gasoline and diesel inventories fell by 6 million barrels, offset by a 2 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories [1][2] Group 2 - In the first week of May, total liquid inventories globally increased by 8 million barrels, with seven out of the past eight weeks showing increases [2] - The increase in crude oil inventories was primarily driven by a significant rise of 26 million barrels in China's crude oil stocks [2] - The overall liquid inventory has increased by 62 million barrels year-to-date until the end of April, with crude oil inventories rising by 102 million barrels and refined oil inventories decreasing by 39 million barrels [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has lowered its price forecasts for Brent crude to an average of $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $56 per barrel for 2026, reflecting a significant downward adjustment from previous expectations [5][7] - The expectation of a supply surplus in the oil market is shared among major financial institutions, with Goldman Sachs predicting a surplus of 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [7] - The recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have led to a temporary suspension of tariffs, which may improve market sentiment, but concerns about supply surplus continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices [8]

Core Viewpoint - Skechers has accepted a premium acquisition offer from 3G Capital amid increasing global trade tensions, with the deal valued at over $9 billion, representing a 30% premium over the stock's recent trading price [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - 3G Capital will acquire all outstanding shares of Skechers at $63 per share in cash, with an option for existing shareholders to receive $57 per share plus non-transferable equity in a newly formed parent company [3]. - Following the acquisition, Skechers will delist from the NYSE and operate as a private company, maintaining its headquarters, management, and core strategies, with founder Robert Greenberg continuing as Chairman and CEO [3]. - The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025 [3]. Group 2: Business Context and Risks - The acquisition timing is closely linked to changes in trade policies, as Skechers withdrew its full-year guidance for 2025 due to economic uncertainties stemming from global trade policies [4]. - Skechers has indicated that over 60% of its imported products come from Asia, making it vulnerable to rising procurement costs due to tariffs, which have pressured profit margins [4][5]. - The company reported a 16% year-over-year decline in sales in key markets like China, attributed to the rise of local brands and tariff pressures [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Skechers reported revenue of $2.41 billion, a 7.1% increase year-over-year, but net profit decreased by 2.0% to $202.4 million [6][8]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 52%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year, reflecting challenges in maintaining pricing power amid rising costs [6][7]. - Sales growth varied by region, with Europe, the Middle East, and Africa seeing a 14% increase, while the Americas grew by 8%, and the Asia-Pacific region experienced a 3% decline, primarily due to the significant drop in China [8][9].

Group 1 - The upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Spotify will be closely watched for potential impacts from tariffs on their supply chains and imported products [1] - Amazon and Apple are expected to be the most affected by the tariff situation, with Amazon's reliance on Asian suppliers and retailers likely to hit its market revenue hard [1] - Apple may benefit in the short term from consumer panic buying, but the long-term effects of increased supply chain costs and decreased consumer purchasing power due to tariffs will become evident [1] Group 2 - Alphabet's CEO Sundar Pichai acknowledged the macroeconomic environment's impact on their business, indicating that changes in tariff exemptions could slightly hinder their advertising business in 2025, particularly from Asia-Pacific retailers [2] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk expressed that tariffs pose a significant challenge, especially when profit margins are low, and noted the uncertainty in trade policies affecting their supply chain [2] - Intel reported better-than-expected revenue but provided a disappointing revenue forecast for the second quarter, attributing the first quarter's performance to customers preemptively purchasing in response to potential tariffs [2] Group 3 - ServiceNow's CEO William McDermott highlighted that CEOs are aware of the dynamic global economy and that ServiceNow reported better-than-expected financial results, which could bode well for Microsoft's upcoming earnings [3] - Netflix's co-CEO Gregory Peters stated that they are closely monitoring consumer sentiment and economic trends, but currently see no significant changes in their operations, suggesting that consumers are still willing to spend on entertainment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural trade landscape is undergoing significant changes, particularly with Bolivia's entry into the Chinese market for chia seeds, which is seen as a milestone event due to the increasing tariffs imposed by the U.S. on agricultural products [2][3][8]. Group 1: Bolivia's Chia Seed Export - Bolivia's President Luis Arce announced the export of 25 tons of chia seeds to China as a milestone event, emphasizing the potential of the Chinese market [2][3]. - In 2023, Bolivia's chia seed export value reached $26.19 million, with major markets including Mexico (35%), the U.S. (15%), Germany (9%), the U.K. (7%), and Peru (6%) [5]. - The Bolivian government aims to become the world's largest exporter of chia seeds following the successful entry into the Chinese market [6]. Group 2: U.S. Agricultural Challenges - The U.S. agricultural sector is facing new challenges due to the ongoing tariff war, which could lead to significant losses for American farmers, particularly in the soybean market [8][12]. - The American Soybean Association reported that during the 2018 trade war, the agricultural sector suffered losses of approximately $27 billion, with about 71% related to soybeans [12]. - U.S. farmers are heavily reliant on exports, with about 50% of U.S. soybeans being exported, making the Chinese market crucial for their business [13].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major television manufacturers serves as a barometer for the television market trends, with significant declines in revenue and profit reported by companies like Konka, TCL, Hisense, and Skyworth in 2024 [2][3]. Financial Performance - Konka Group reported a revenue of approximately 11.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 37.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -3.3 billion yuan, down 52.31% [2]. - Konka's television business generated revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.78%, accounting for about 45% of total revenue [3]. - TCL's large-size display business revenue increased by 23.6% to 60.11 billion HKD (approximately 56.64 billion yuan), while Skyworth's smart TV revenue was about 20.8 billion yuan, up nearly 10% [4]. Market Dynamics - The domestic television market is increasingly concentrated among leading brands, with TCL, Hisense, and Skyworth collectively holding a market share of 60.5%, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Mini LED technology is becoming a key competitive area in the high-end television market, with sales of Mini LED TVs in China increasing by 520.4% year-on-year in Q1 2024 [5][6]. Export Challenges - The overseas market has become increasingly important for television manufacturers, with Konka expanding its overseas business by acquiring 23 new clients and establishing a presence in Sri Lanka [7]. - The overall export volume of televisions from mainland China is projected to reach 110.54 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [8]. - Tariffs are a significant concern for manufacturers, particularly in the North American market, with companies like Hisense and TCL establishing factories in Mexico to mitigate costs [8][9].