Core Viewpoint - CalPERS plans to vote against Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation package for Tesla, which poses a significant obstacle to the company's attempt to grant one of the largest compensation plans in U.S. corporate history [2][3]. Group 1: Compensation Plan Details - CalPERS holds approximately 5 million shares of Tesla stock and believes the proposed CEO compensation is significantly larger than that of peers [3]. - The $1 trillion compensation plan is a 10-year proposal that requires Musk to meet specific performance targets to receive full rewards, potentially increasing his shareholding to at least 25% if targets are met [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Tesla's stock price fell over 4.6%, underperforming the broader U.S. market and most large tech companies [4]. - Morgan Stanley warns that if Musk's compensation plan is rejected at the upcoming shareholder meeting, Tesla's stock could face an immediate drop of over 10%, casting a shadow over the company's strategic future [7][8]. Group 3: Leadership and Talent Implications - The failure of the compensation plan may be interpreted as a "vote of no confidence" in Musk's leadership, potentially leading to significant market reactions and strategic uncertainties for Tesla [8][9]. - There are concerns that Musk might choose to leave Tesla if the plan is rejected, which could severely impact the company's future and its ability to attract and retain top talent in AI and engineering [9][11].

摩根士丹利认为，如果马斯克的薪酬方案在股东大会上被否决，特斯拉股价可能立即遭遇超过10%的抛售，并给公司的战略未来蒙上阴影。 据追风交易台，在资深分析师Adam Jonas于2025年10月30日发布的这份报告中，摩根士丹利对即将到来的11月6日特斯拉股东大会进行了风险预 警。尽管市场普遍预期马斯克的巨额薪酬方案将获通过，但该报告为投资者揭示了"万一失败"的严重后果，堪称对一项重大尾部风险的量化分 析。 截至发稿，特斯拉股价为444.71美元，今年涨幅逾15%。 "投资者应预见到，马斯克先生将重申其对于在没有获得 blocking minority（即25%）话语权的情况下，继续领导特斯拉进入军民两用 机器人和通用人工智能（AGI）领域的保留意见……（方案被否）可能给公司带来严重的招聘'挑战'。" 不信任投票与股价暴跌 报告的核心论点是，薪酬方案的失败将被市场解读为对马斯克领导力的"不信任投票"，并可能立即引发资本市场的剧烈反应。摩根士丹利明确警 告，这场看似简单的投票，实则是一场关乎公司未来的豪赌。 "薪酬方案的失败可能被视为对埃隆·马斯克领导特斯拉的'不信任投票'……股价可能立即出现抛售（可能超过10%） ...