Core Insights - The report from Kpler highlights the increasing presence of "zombie ships" in the critical Strait of Malacca, particularly on the route from the Eastern Outer Port Limit (EOPL) to China, complicating the tracking of Iranian crude oil entering China [1][6] Group 1: Zombie Ships and AIS Manipulation - "Zombie ships" are vessels that have become part of a shadow fleet due to sanctions, shutting off their AIS signals and broadcasting signals from decommissioned ships to conceal their identities during cargo unloading [1][6] - Kpler reported four new cases of "zombie ships" following the unloading of approximately 6 million barrels of Iranian crude oil by the sanctioned VLCC "Gather View" at a Chinese port [3] - Specific examples include the VLCC "Vanity" using the AIS identity of the retired VLCC "Uranus," and the VLCC "Ivy" adopting the identity of the VLCC "DS Tina" after loading Iranian crude [5] Group 2: Impact of Sanctions on Iranian Oil Exports - Despite the emergence of "zombie ships," Iranian crude oil exports to China have reportedly declined, with May figures showing approximately 1.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of about 20% year-on-year [7] - The decline in exports reflects the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions, although tracking accuracy is hindered by the closure of vessel transponders and the re-labeling of oil from other countries [7][8] - The tightening of U.S. sanctions is putting pressure on supply chains, while demand is also weakening due to seasonal refinery maintenance delays [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The decline in prices of competing crude varieties from Russia, such as Sokol and Novy Port, is also affecting the market share of Iranian oil [8] - Chinese buyers have reduced their crude oil procurement demand in May, following earlier stockpiling behaviors [8] - The dual impact of sanctions and market factors is reshaping the landscape of Iranian oil trade, presenting new challenges for international maritime regulation and oil trade tracking [10]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a cautious outlook on oil prices due to potential increases in Iranian supply and high OECD commercial inventories, which may offset the support from strong global GDP growth [1] Group 1: Oil Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs keeps its oil price forecast for the remainder of 2025 at $60 for Brent and $56 for WTI, which is $4 lower than forward prices [1] - For 2026, the forecast is set at $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI, which is $8 lower than forward prices [1] Group 2: Iranian Oil Supply Expectations - Following reports of potential progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement, Goldman Sachs raises its forecast for Iranian oil supply in the second half of 2025 to 3.6 million barrels per day [1] - If the US-Iran nuclear agreement is reached and implemented, it is possible for Iranian oil supply to gradually increase by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day [1]

美国国务院根据第13846号行政令对 从事伊朗石油贸易的四个实体实施制裁，其中涉及中国舟山的一个 实体。该码头在2021年至2025年之间至少收购了伊朗原油，包括美国批准的船只，相当于至少进口1300 万桶伊朗原油。 继续针对伊朗的幽灵舰队 国务院继续指定船舶管理公司及其油轮，因为他们故意从伊朗从事石油和石化产品的运输。这些船只管 理公司及其关联的油轮共同运送了数百万桶的伊朗原油和石油产品，其中绝大多数货物都交付给了中国 的买家。此外，这些船只通常从事"黑暗活动"，其自动识别系统（AIS）位置和标识信标会关闭。这种行 为旨在掩盖船舶货物的伊朗起源，是对其他船只的直接和不必要的风险，因为AIS是用于避免船舶碰撞的 关键系统。 ...