Core Points - The United States is committed to reaching an agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear program, as stated in a letter submitted to the UN Security Council [1][3] - The agreement is contingent upon Iran abandoning its nuclear ambitions, which the US claims would benefit the Iranian people and promote peace in the region [3] - The US reserves the right to take additional actions if Iran responds negatively, citing inherent self-defense rights against threats to US citizens and facilities [3] Summary by Sections - **US Position**: The US remains dedicated to negotiating with Iran on its nuclear plans, emphasizing the potential benefits for the Iranian populace and regional stability [1][3] - **Iran's Response**: Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have made strong statements against the US, indicating a refusal to accept threats and asserting Iran's capability to respond if provoked [3] - **Regional Tensions**: Despite a ceasefire announced between Israel and Iran, tensions remain high, with both sides exchanging aggressive rhetoric [3]

Group 1 - Israel launched an attack on Iran, targeting multiple locations related to Iran's nuclear program and long-range missile capabilities [8] - The attack is part of escalating tensions in the Middle East, with recent intelligence indicating Israel's intent to disrupt US-Iran nuclear negotiations [1][2] - The Israeli military's actions are expected to continue until the perceived threat from Iran is eliminated, indicating a significant escalation in military operations [8] Group 2 - The US has withdrawn non-essential personnel from the Middle East due to rising tensions, with officials monitoring the situation closely [2] - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a resolution declaring Iran in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty for the first time in nearly two decades, prompting Iran to announce new uranium enrichment activities [2] - The situation has led to warnings from US officials, including President Trump, about the potential for large-scale conflict in the region [2][8]

Core Viewpoint - The attack on Iran is perceived as an attempt to undermine negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran, potentially leading to disastrous regional war consequences [1] Group 1 - Senator Chris Murphy indicates that the conflict between Israel and Iran could be politically advantageous for Netanyahu but disastrous for other countries in the region [1] - Murphy argues that if Trump and Netanyahu had not pushed the U.S. to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran, the country would not be close to acquiring nuclear weapons [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, specific ratings for some products are as follows: - **Bullish**: Jiao Coal, Coke, Ethylene Glycol [1] - **Bearish**: None explicitly stated - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Most of the products, including stocks, treasury bonds, gold, various non - ferrous metals, building materials, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products [1] Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have limited driving force on the stock index, with weak fundamentals and a relatively policy - vacuum environment. Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations. Although there are positive signals in Sino - US economic and trade relations recently, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but caution is needed due to the possible repetition of Sino - US tariff signals [1]. - Different factors drive the trends of various commodities. For example, asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning of interest - rate risks restricts the upward space; the long - term upward logic of gold is solid, but it may fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by overseas variables in the short term, expected to fluctuate strongly, but be cautious of the repetition of Sino - US tariff signals [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning of interest - rate risks restricts the upward space, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Gold**: May oscillate in the short term, with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - **Yin**: Expected to continue to be strong in the short term, but beware of a pull - back [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand and volatile macro - sentiment may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, futures price is weak, and increased production pressure on the futures price, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price, and the subsequent downward space depends on the sustainability of social inventory reduction on Thursday [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term oscillation following the macro - environment, long - term pressure from primary nickel surplus, pay attention to inventory changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term bottom - oscillation, long - term supply pressure exists, pay attention to steel mill production arrangements [1]. - **Tin**: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows improvement, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production scheduling drops rapidly, futures premium over spot, and warehouse receipts increase [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Mine prices continue to fall, downstream procurement is inactive, and raw material inventory is high [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: In the window period of switching from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand balance, no upward price drive is observed, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation of iron - water peak, and supply may increase in June, pay attention to steel pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Short - term supply - demand balance, slight increase in production, acceptable demand, but heavy warehouse - receipt pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply surplus, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Glass Film**: Supply and demand are both weak, with the arrival of the off - peak season, demand weakens, and the price continues to be weak, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance resumes, direct demand is acceptable, but concerns about supply surplus resurface, and terminal demand is weak, price is under pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price continues to weaken, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. It can still be short - sold, with the upper limit of the target price at 780 - 800 [1]. - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal, with the continuous decline of coal - entering - furnace cost, the price drops synchronously, expected to decline [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB released a May report with expected production + 3%, export + 17%, and inventory + 9%. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: A game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations of other oils, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The expectation of China - Canada negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key negative driving factors, beware of a rebound in the market [1]. - **Cotton**: Affected by trade negotiations and weather premiums in the short term, with strong macro - uncertainty in the long term, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio [1]. - **Wheat**: Supported by the purchase - support policy, with tightening supply and increasing demand, expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Soybeans**: The pressure of Brazilian soybean arrivals is mainly reflected in the basis and near - month contracts. The market lacks upward momentum, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: Demand is light at present, but the downward space is limited, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is abundant, demand is light, it is recommended to hold short positions or short after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the futures price is expected to be stable [1]. Energy - Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Affected by Sino - US calls, geopolitical situation, and summer consumption peak [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures - spot price difference has fully converged, raw material prices have fallen, and inventory has decreased significantly, expected to oscillate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are loose, expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement in the long term [1]. - **PTA**: The tight situation has been alleviated, and short - fiber costs are closely related. Some factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, imports are blocked, and it continues to destock. It is expected to decline [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term tight situation has been alleviated, and short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Styrene**: The speculative demand has weakened, the device load has increased, inventory has risen, and the basis has weakened, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Urea**: The daily production is still high, and the short - term export demand is expected to increase, and the market may rebound [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic start - up rate remains high, inventory is increasing, and traditional downstream demand is weak, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **PP**: The support of maintenance is limited, orders are for rigid demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: Maintenance is about to end, new devices are put into operation, and the off - peak season is coming, supply pressure increases, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **LPG**: The price is weak, in a narrow - range fluctuation, and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. Others - **Three - cloud Line**: The market shows a strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly long - tested, and attention can be paid to 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].

Group 1 - International gold prices closed at $3308.83 per ounce, down 1.31%, with a high of $3375.29 and a low of $3306.62 on June 6 [1] - The Trump administration's policy adjustments have sparked controversy, particularly regarding military support for Ukraine, with a noticeable reduction in assistance [1] - Trump's decision to halt key drone technology aid indicates a shift towards improving U.S.-Russia relations, potentially at the expense of Ukraine [1] Group 2 - Putin's proposal to assist the U.S. in reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran suggests a desire for cooperation despite ongoing conflicts [2] - Analysts express skepticism about Putin's strategy, viewing it as an attempt to reduce U.S. support for Ukraine while normalizing U.S.-Russia relations [2] - Technical analysts indicate that gold is at a critical technical juncture, with the Bollinger Band midline at 3296.92 serving as a short-term pivot point [2]

制作日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 热点品种 端午节期间，国际原油价格因 OPEC+增产幅度未超预期、加拿大野火影响原油生 产及乌克兰炸毁俄罗斯境内多架战略轰炸机而反弹。欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油 产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅 度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。 加拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产。雪佛龙 此前在委内瑞拉运营的更广泛的许可证到期。美国特朗普政府 5 月 28 日向雪佛 龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，允许其继续留在委内瑞拉，对设备进行最低限度 的维护，但禁止在委内瑞拉生产石油，这是美国政府对委内瑞拉石油行业的制裁 升级，其目的是避免向委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政府支付任何可能的款项。雪佛龙占 委内瑞拉石油产量的五分之一。目前尚不清楚该政策是否会扩展到委内瑞拉石油 行业的其他外国合作伙伴。另外特朗普威胁称可以对伊朗和俄罗斯加大制裁大幅 削减伊朗和俄罗斯石油出口，不过特朗普的威胁只是现在促成美伊核协议和俄乌 停火的谈判手段。目前伊朗和俄罗斯原油出口受制裁影响不大，而 ...

5. 据CNN：伊朗高级官员称，美国的核协议提案不连贯且脱节，美不断改变的立场是谈判成功的主要 障碍。消息人士称，下一轮美伊谈判非常不确定，可能根本不会举行。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 金十数据整理：中东局势跟踪（6月3日） 加沙冲突： 其他情况： 1. 2日凌晨，以军飞机炸毁了加沙地带中部代尔拜拉赫的清真寺。 2. 近东救济工程处：过去20个月加沙儿童伤亡数量达5万名。 3. 以军轰炸加沙北部致21人死亡。 4. 胡塞武装称用弹道导弹袭击以色列本-古里安机场。 5. 以色列国防军：也门方向发射炮弹，以色列全境拉响警报。 1. 伊朗原子能组织主席：铀浓缩是伊朗的"红线"。 2. 伊朗强调伊美所达成协议须包括解除对伊非法制裁。 3. 伊朗外长与德国外长通电话，强调愿继续对话建立信任。 4. 美媒：美方态度大反转，将允许伊朗进行低水平铀浓缩。 ...

金十数据6月3日讯，一名伊朗高级官员向CNN表示，美国最近几天提交给德黑兰的新核协议提案"不连 贯且脱节"，熟悉谈判进展的消息人士说，达成新协议谈判背后的势头似乎正在崩溃。报道称，在新提 案中，美国在铀浓缩问题上的立场发生了变化。报告建议，美国可以投资伊朗的民用核能项目，并加入 一个联盟，在一段时间内监督伊朗境内的低浓缩铀活动。该联盟预计将包括中东国家和联合国核监督机 构国际原子能机构。伊朗官员一再表示，他们对组建铀浓缩联盟的想法持开放态度，但坚称伊朗必须能 够控制自己的铀浓缩能力。这名伊朗高级官员周一谴责了这项新提议，称"乍一看，它被认为是不连 贯、脱节的，非常不现实，而且要求过多。"这名官员补充说：" 美国人不断改变立场，这是迄今为止 谈判成功的主要障碍，现在使谈判工作比以往任何时候都更加困难。" 有知情人士表示，下一轮谈判非 常不确定，可能根本不会举行。 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 伊朗官员称美国核协议提议"不连贯且脱节" 美伊谈判或濒临崩溃 ...

此外，路透社报道称，伊朗官方消息人士称，如果美国解冻伊朗资金，并承认德黑兰有权根据一项可能促成更 广泛核协议的"政治协议"提炼民用铀，伊朗可能会暂停铀浓缩活动。 来看详细报道！ 特朗普警告以色列：暂勿攻击伊朗！ 针对美伊核谈判，特朗普有新表态！ 当地时间5月28日，美国总统特朗普表示，他已警告以色列暂勿攻击伊朗，因为美伊双方"已经非常接近达成解 决方案了"。特朗普称，美伊核协议可能"在未来几周内"达成。 特朗普28日称，他已告知以色列暂勿攻击伊朗，以便美国政府有更多时间推动与伊朗达成新的核协议。 特朗普说，他告诉以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，现阶段攻击伊朗"不合适"，因为双方"已经非常接近达成解决方案 了"。特朗普称"现在情况随时可能发生变化，一个电话就能改变一切"。特朗普还说，他认为伊朗希望达成协 议，这将"挽救许多生命"，协议可能"在未来几周内"达成。特朗普还表示，他想带检查人员前往伊朗。 特朗普曾于当地时间25日表示，美方与伊朗方面进行了一些"非常好的对话"，并称他认为在伊朗问题上可能会 有一些"好消息"。特朗普还表示，"在伊朗问题上取得了实质性进展"。 近日，有美国媒体报道称，美国情报显示，以色列正就打击伊朗 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the United States is engaged in positive negotiations with Iran, with progress being reported [1] - President Trump indicated that a nuclear agreement with Iran could potentially be reached in the coming weeks [1] - Trump expressed a desire to send inspectors to Iran as part of the negotiations [1]