鸣鸣很忙 20260309 摘要 零食量贩行业进入双强格局，全国门店空间测算达 8-10 万家，2025 年 后补贴减少，竞争趋缓且头部壁垒强化。 鸣鸣很忙（零食很忙+赵一鸣）2025 年末门店预计达 2.2 万家，GMV 超 900 亿，三线及以下城市占比 66%，下沉市场属性极强。 公司探索"省钱超市"与便利店新店型，前者面积 200 平+且增加刚需 品类，回本周期约 3-3.5 年，处于迭代优化期。 供应链效能突出：48 个仓库实现 24 小时日配，存货周转仅 11-13 天； 2025 年毛利率预计升至 10%，净利率向 4.5%-5%区间靠拢。 2025 年预计新开店 7,000 家+，2026-2027 年增速放缓但更重质量， 闭店率严格控制在 1%-2%以内，同店表现有望在 2025 年末转正。 财务预测显示 2027 年收入有望接近 1,000 亿元，基于规模效应及议价 权提升，给予 2026 年 26 倍 PE 目标估值。 Q&A 根据高德地图数据，2025 年末鸣鸣很忙与万辰集团门店数分别超过 2.2 万家 和 1.9 万家。第三名零食有鸣门店数提升至约 6,000 家，但与前两名仍存在显 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is a leader in the snack retail sector, with a significant market presence and a strong growth trajectory. The merger of its two brands has positioned it as the largest snack retail chain in China by GMV as of 2024 [8][14] - The industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to increase from 73 billion in 2019 to 1,297 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 77.8% [8] - The company's revenue is primarily generated through a franchise model, with over 98.5% of sales coming from franchise stores, allowing for rapid expansion and high operational efficiency [23][27] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates under two main brands, providing a wide range of snack products and has established a robust supply chain to ensure competitive pricing and product availability [14] - As of November 2025, the company had 21,041 stores across 28 provinces in China, with 59% located in county and town areas [14][18] 2. Industry Dynamics - The snack retail sector is characterized by a dual oligopoly, with the company and its main competitor expected to hold approximately 75.6% of the market share by 2024 [8] - The shift towards discount retailing is driven by consumer demand for value and the inefficiencies of traditional retail channels [8] 3. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 645 billion, 822 billion, and 944 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of 26 billion, 32 billion, and 39 billion [8] - The company has shown a significant improvement in profitability, with net profit margins increasing from 1.7% in 2022 to 3.4% in 2025 [48] 4. Operational Efficiency - The company has a high inventory turnover rate, significantly outperforming its peers, which contributes to its operational efficiency [50] - The gross margin has improved from 7.5% in 2022 to 9.7% in 2025, reflecting enhanced supply chain integration and cost management [42][48] 5. Future Outlook - The company is exploring new store formats, including discount supermarkets, to enhance revenue streams and improve profitability [8][14] - The management team is stable and experienced, with a focus on strategic planning and operational execution [58]