摘要 对于 2026 年的零食行业，有哪些投资建议？ 展望 2026 年，我们认为零食行业仍然高度分散且消费者需求多样。核心有两 条投资主线：第一条是看好头部零食量贩品牌扩展品类、提升供应链效率，并 积极探索自由品牌带来的店效提升空间。市场对头部品牌的开店空间和同店韧 性仍存在预期差，因此继续推荐万辰集团和鸣鸣很忙；第二条主线是看好魔芋 和燕麦品类的创新空间，这两个品类有望进一步拓宽市场上限。其中浙江受益 受凭借自主自产自研能力及健全供应链体系，有望延续高景气度。此外，应重 点关注卫龙、盐津、西麦等企业的表现。 恰恰食品受瓜子和坚果成本及低价竞争影响，业绩承压；劲仔和甘源侧 重电商和零售渠道，但渠道费用增加抑制利润增长。零食企业业绩分化 明显。 零食量贩双寡头格局确立，很忙侧重开店规模领先，万辰则注重单店模 型盈利能力。截至目前，很忙门店超 2.1 万家，万辰为 1.9 万家，C22 市场份额接近 80%。 市场对头部零食量贩品牌扩展品类、提升供应链效率及自由品牌店效提 升空间存在预期差，推荐关注万辰集团和鸣鸣很忙。 看好魔芋和燕麦品类的创新空间，有望拓宽市场上限。浙江受益凭借自 主自产自研能力及健全供应链体 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company, Ming Ming Hen Mang, is a leading player in the snack retail industry, with a total of 14,394 stores across 28 provinces in China as of December 31, 2024, indicating significant market penetration [6][2] - The Chinese food and beverage retail market is projected to reach 7.1 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 5.2% from 2019 to 2024, with the snack retail segment expected to grow from approximately 2.9 trillion yuan in 2019 to 3.7 trillion yuan in 2024 [13][14] - The company primarily generates revenue through franchising, with franchise income accounting for 98.8% of total revenue in 2024, amounting to 38.89 billion yuan [28][37] - The company has a strong supply chain management system, combining self-operated and outsourced logistics, with 25 self-operated warehouses and 11 third-party warehouses, ensuring efficient distribution [50][51] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ming Ming Hen Mang is positioned as a top player in the snack retail industry, having established a significant presence since its founding in 2016 and the acquisition of Zhao Yi Ming in 2023 [6][2] Market Growth - The food and beverage retail market in China is expected to grow steadily, with the snack retail segment projected to expand significantly, particularly in lower-tier cities [13][14][15] Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue of 39.34 billion yuan and a gross profit of 2.999 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 282.15% and 288.31% respectively [28][31] - Adjusted net profit reached 910 million yuan in 2024, showing a substantial increase of 288.67% compared to the previous year [31] Franchise Model and Expansion - The company has rapidly expanded its franchise network, adding 8,083 new franchise stores in 2024, with a total of 14,379 stores by year-end [37][42] - Approximately 58% of the stores are located in county and town areas, indicating a strong focus on penetrating lower-tier markets [42] Supply Chain and Digitalization - The company employs a robust supply chain strategy, with a focus on digitalization to enhance efficiency in product selection, logistics, and store management [50][51] - The logistics costs as a percentage of total revenue have been effectively controlled, indicating superior management compared to industry peers [50] Product Offering and Pricing Strategy - The company emphasizes high-quality and cost-effective products, with an average price approximately 25% lower than similar products in offline supermarkets [47] - The product range includes over 1,800 SKUs per store, with a significant portion being custom products developed in collaboration with manufacturers [47]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Mingming Hen Mang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. (Mingming Hen Mang) has submitted an updated prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming for an IPO after a rapid growth trajectory in the snack retail sector, achieving significant revenue and GMV increases in a short period [2][7]. Group 1: Company Overview - Mingming Hen Mang was formed by the merger of Snack Hen Mang and Zhao Yiming Snacks, with the merger completed in November 2023, maintaining independent brand operations [3]. - The company has rapidly expanded its store count to approximately 6,500 after the merger, with plans to reach 14,394 stores by the end of 2024 and 16,783 stores by June 30, 2025, covering 28 provinces and 1,327 counties [5][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Mingming Hen Mang reported a GMV of 411 billion RMB for the first half of the year, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 86.9% [2][7]. - The company is recognized as the largest chain retailer in China by GMV in the leisure food and beverage sector, ranking among the top ten chain retailers in China for 2024 [7]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company has established direct supply relationships with over 2,300 upstream manufacturers, enhancing supply chain efficiency by bypassing intermediaries [5]. - With a network of 36 modern logistics warehouses, Mingming Hen Mang can achieve 24-hour delivery to stores, supporting the replenishment needs of over 14,000 locations [5]. Group 4: Market Position and Challenges - The rapid expansion and low pricing strategy have drawn comparisons to the successful brand Mixue Ice City in the snack sector [5]. - However, concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of this growth model, with experts questioning the long-term viability due to potential quality issues and market saturation [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent quarterly report of Jinzai Food (003000.SZ) indicates a revenue increase without profit growth, with a slight revenue growth of 2.05% year-on-year to 1.808 billion yuan, marking the lowest growth rate since its listing in 2020. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.51% to 173 million yuan [3][4]. Group 1: Q3 Performance - In Q3, Jinzai Food achieved a revenue of 685 million yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.55% and 29.52%, respectively. However, the net profit decreased by 14.77% year-on-year to 60.83 million yuan, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability [5][7]. - The company has been focusing on the development, production, and sales of Chinese-style snack foods, with major products including fish products, poultry products, and bean products. Revenue growth rates from 2021 to 2024 were 22.21%, 31.59%, 41.26%, and 16.79%, respectively [5][6]. - The company has expanded its distribution channels, increasing the number of distributors to 3,502, up by 336 from the previous year. However, the core sales model's distributor revenue declined by 9.25% to 792 million yuan [5][6]. Group 2: Product Performance - The growth of fish products, a key revenue driver, showed signs of slowing down, with a revenue of 757 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 7.61%, accounting for approximately 67.4% of total revenue. The growth rate has significantly decreased from 16.64% in the previous year [11][12]. - The company has been focusing on poultry products as a second growth curve, with revenue from this segment reaching 450 million yuan in 2023. However, in 2025, poultry product sales dropped by 27.88% year-on-year, leading to a revenue decline of 24% to 196 million yuan [12][13]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for Q3 decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 28.93%, influenced by changes in channel structure and the performance of different sales models [7][10]. - Sales expenses reached a record high of 250 million yuan in the first three quarters, with Q3 sales expenses at 95 million yuan, resulting in a sales expense ratio of 13.82%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points year-on-year [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.75 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 79 million yuan, down 73% year-on-year [1][3] - The company is facing pressure on costs due to rising raw material prices, particularly for sunflower seeds and nuts, which has impacted profitability [3] - The company is actively exploring new sales channels such as snack wholesale and membership stores to adapt to changing market conditions [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 6.806 billion, 7.131 billion, 6.701 billion, 6.829 billion, and 6.996 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1.1%, 4.8%, -6.0%, 1.9%, and 2.4% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 803 million, 849 million, 378 million, 665 million, and 780 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of -17.8%, 5.8%, -55.6%, 76.1%, and 17.4% [2] - The gross margin is expected to be 26.8%, 28.8%, 23.8%, 27.2%, and 27.6% for the years 2023A to 2027E [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.5%, 14.8%, 6.4%, 10.7%, and 11.8% for the same period [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at 1.58, 1.68, 0.75, 1.31, and 1.54 yuan for 2023A to 2027E [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to face revenue pressure in Q4 2025 due to the late timing of the Spring Festival in 2026, but there is potential for recovery in profitability as raw material prices for sunflower seeds are projected to decline [3] - The company anticipates that the gross margin for sunflower seeds may improve in Q4 and the following year, while nut margins may remain under pressure [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.701 billion, 6.829 billion, and 6.996 billion yuan, with net profits of 378 million, 666 million, and 780 million yuan respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Qiyunshan Food Co., Ltd. has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing impressive financial metrics, particularly in gross margin and operating cash flow, compared to its industry peers [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue has shown a growth trend from 2022 to 2024, with figures of 217 million, 247 million, and 339 million yuan respectively [2]. - The flagship product, South Jujube Cake, has been the largest contributor to revenue, with sales of 193 million, 209 million, and 294 million yuan during the same period [2]. - The gross margins for Qiyunshan Food from 2022 to 2024 were 47.2%, 48.8%, and 48.6%, significantly higher than the industry leader, Liuliu Guoyuan, whose gross margin is projected to drop to 36% in 2024 [1][3]. Pricing and Sales Dynamics - There is a discrepancy in the average selling price of South Jujube Cake, reported as decreasing from 40.5 yuan/kg in 2023 to either 39.3 yuan/kg or 34.3 yuan/kg in 2024, indicating potential pricing strategies or reporting inconsistencies [1][6]. - The company has expanded its distribution network, increasing the number of offline distributors from 140 in December 2022 to 199 by December 2024 [2]. Customer Structure and Relationships - Qiyunshan Food relies heavily on bulk snack channels, similar to Liuliu Guoyuan, which often require manufacturers to offer discounts [2]. - The company has a significant reliance on a local distributor, identified as Customer A, which has consistently been its largest customer from 2022 to 2024 [7]. - There are indications of potential conflicts of interest, as Customer A may have ties to Qiyunshan Food through shared ownership and management [7]. Raw Material Costs - Both Qiyunshan Food and Liuliu Guoyuan face similar raw material cost structures, with slight variations in the prices of their main ingredients [4][5]. - The price of South Jujube and green plums increased by 0.1 yuan/kg in 2024 compared to 2023, while sugar prices decreased for both companies [4]. Market Position and Risks - Despite lower brand recognition and revenue compared to Liuliu Guoyuan, Qiyunshan Food maintains a stable high gross margin, raising questions about the sustainability of its financial performance amidst industry challenges [3][5]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the potential for inflated revenue or reduced costs, especially if the company's gross margin continues to exceed industry averages without clear competitive advantages [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Laiyifen, reported a disappointing performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue growth but a significant net loss, indicating a situation of increasing revenue without increasing profit [2][4][5]. Revenue Performance - Laiyifen's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.21% [4]. - The net profit turned negative at -50.68 million yuan, a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [4]. - The cash flow from operating activities decreased by 78.68% to 22.40 million yuan [4]. Cost and Profitability Issues - The company's gross margin fell to 32.61%, down 8.67 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -2.27%, a decline of 3.00 percentage points [6]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin further decreased to 30.21%, down 10.73 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Store Operations and Adjustments - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of stores decreased to 2,979, with a net reduction of 106 stores [8]. - The number of direct-operated stores fell by 90 to 1,395, while franchise stores decreased by 16 to 1,584 [8]. - Revenue from direct-operated stores dropped by 78.69% to 875 million yuan, while franchise store revenue increased by 78.71% to 722 million yuan [8]. Market Challenges and Competitive Landscape - The company faces intense competition from emerging snack retailers, which have adopted low-price strategies that appeal to consumers, particularly in lower-tier markets [5][11]. - The overall consumption environment remains challenging, impacting many physical stores, including those in the snack sector [5]. Strategic Transformation - Laiyifen is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on new business channels and product innovation to drive revenue growth [5][10]. - The company is also exploring new product categories, including beverages and prepared foods, to enhance its market presence [9][12]. Recommendations for Improvement - Analysts suggest that the company should enhance product development and innovation, optimize store operations, and strengthen online sales channels to improve profitability [12][13]. - There is a need for better cost control in the supply chain and a clearer brand positioning to differentiate from competitors [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Jin Zai Food (stock code: 003000) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing temporary pressure in its business phase, with expectations for the effectiveness of adjustments to be released [1] - The first half of 2025 saw a slight decline in revenue and a significant drop in net profit, attributed to challenges in quail egg sales and competitive pressures [5] - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel adjustments, with expectations for marginal improvements in the second half of 2025 [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,411.94 million yuan in 2024 to 3,251.97 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 16.79% in 2024, slowing to 4.23% in 2025, and then rebounding to 13.94% and 13.53% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][6] - Net profit is expected to decline to 273.47 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 328.97 million yuan in 2026 and 390.84 million yuan in 2027 [2][7] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to remain stable, increasing from 30.47% in 2024 to 31.45% in 2027 [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, revenue from fish products and bean products showed growth, while quail egg sales faced a decline due to market conditions and competition [5] - The company has expanded its distribution channels, covering over 300,000 terminals and increasing the number of distributors by 10.6% [5] Market Performance - The stock closed at 12.81 yuan on August 27, 2025, with a market capitalization of 3.8 billion yuan [3] - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a focus on maintaining steady revenue growth despite current challenges [5]

Core Viewpoint - Qiaqia Food reported a significant decline in net profit and revenue for the first half of 2025, primarily due to rising raw material costs and changes in external channels [3][8][10]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Qiaqia Food achieved revenue of 2.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.05% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 88.64 million yuan, down 73.68% year-on-year, marking the largest mid-year net profit decline since the company went public in 2011 [8][9]. - The second quarter saw revenue of 1.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.69%, but the net profit dropped 88.2% to 11.39 million yuan [5][10]. Product Contribution - Sunflower seed products accounted for 64.39% of total revenue, generating approximately 1.772 billion yuan [5]. - Nut products contributed 22.32% of revenue, amounting to about 614 million yuan, while other products generated around 304 million yuan, making up 11.05% of total revenue [5]. Regional Performance - Revenue in the Eastern and Northern regions declined by 24.76% and 19.83% respectively, while e-commerce and overseas sales grew by 24.79% and 13.18% [6]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the second quarter was 21.42%, down 3.56% year-on-year, primarily due to rising costs of core raw materials [10]. - The company faced increased costs for sunflower seeds and nuts, influenced by weather conditions and supply-demand dynamics [10]. Strategic Adjustments - Qiaqia Food is actively adjusting its product and channel structures, increasing investment in new product development and channel capabilities [11][12]. - The company plans to expand its snack wholesale channel, which generated sales of approximately 450 million yuan last year, and aims to increase its SKU offerings [13]. Market Expansion - Qiaqia Food intends to expand into nearly 200 county markets annually, focusing on optimizing channel strategies and enhancing brand penetration in overseas markets [13][14]. - The company is also strengthening its e-commerce presence on platforms like Pinduoduo and JD.com, while exploring new online channels [14].

Core Viewpoint - Wancheng Group plans to acquire the remaining 49% stake in Wanyou for a cash payment of 1.379 billion yuan, indicating steady operational progress [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition is based on performance commitments, with net profits for 2025-2027 not lower than 320 million, 330 million, and 350 million yuan respectively [1] - The estimated acquisition valuation corresponds to approximately 8.8 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio based on the 2025 performance target [1] Group 2: Market Concerns and Opportunities - There are market concerns regarding the impact of same-store sales decline on opening space, but the decline is attributed to a significant number of new store openings planned for 2024 [1] - The overall investment recovery cycle for leading snack brands remains attractive for franchisees, suggesting continued opening opportunities [1] Group 3: Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The company is actively refining its cost-saving supermarket model, with discount formats in community settings experiencing significant growth [1] - Demand-driven development of discount formats is maturing, and Wancheng Group maintains a strong competitive advantage in community retail [1] - The acquisition of minority stakes is expected to enhance the parent company's profits [1] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues, net profits, and net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2026 to be 5.27 billion, 1.90 billion, 990 million yuan and 6.56 billion, 2.64 billion, 1.43 billion yuan respectively [1]