花旗发表研报指出，AMD去年第四季度业绩的上行主要受到意外的3.9亿美元中国销售额提振。尽管 AMD对2026年第一季度的指引高于市场共识，但该行认为买方预期更高。该行认为，在2026年下半年 MI450发布之前，该股仍处于观望模式，该行认为该产品面临执行、竞争及客户集中风险。2026年伺服 器CPU总可用市场将实现双位数字按年增长，2025年伺服器总可用市场约为200亿美元。 该行调整2026及2027财年的每股盈测(不含股份基础补偿)分别上调10美仙和下调4美仙，并基于目标市 盈率26倍，维持260美元的目标价，维持"中性"评级。 ...

AMD3日公布上季财报亮眼，惟本季财测低于市场预期，4日早盘股价重挫11%。不过，执行长苏姿丰 于财报会议多次强调，随旗下AI芯片「MI450」加速放量、资料中心需求全面升温，下半年AI业务将快 速攀升。 法人认为，AMD本季营运虽不如预期，但下半年迎来AI业务「真正的拐点」，相关供应链将跟着「先 蹲后跳」，台积电、健策、营邦等AMDAI相关业务协力厂下半年营运可望同步爆发。 AMD表示，上季营收年增34%至约103亿美元，高于市场预期的97亿美元；经调整后每股盈余1.53美 元，也优于分析师预估。 苏姿丰重申，预料AMD新AI芯片销售将在下半年快速攀升。她并提到，全球记忆体短缺不会让AMD放 慢脚步，「新AI芯片将如期在下半年增产，MI450表现极佳」。 从产品蓝图来看，AMD锁定下半年AI芯片大幅放量。公司确认，对标竞品新世代平台的MI450系列， 将于第3季开始贡献营收，第4季量产规模扩大，出货动能明显升温并延续至2027年。 AMD并首度对外证实，下一代MI500系列将于2027年迈向2奈米制程。业界指出，相关先进制程与先进 封装需求，仍高度仰赖台湾供应链。台积电作为全球先进制程与CoWoS等封装技术 ...

Core Insights - Aletheia Capital's report highlights a significant underestimation of the demand for advanced packaging, particularly CoWoS, driven by emerging AI applications [1] - The report predicts a substantial capacity shortfall for TSMC's CoWoS technology, with a projected gap of 400,000 units in 2026 and 700,000 units in 2027, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance [1] Group 1: Demand Drivers - The growth in GPU shipments and the rapid expansion of photomask sizes are identified as the two main drivers for CoWoS demand [1] - New devices such as server CPUs, high-end PCs, and gaming console chips are expected to adopt CoWoS technology starting in the second half of this year, with a significant acceleration anticipated by 2026 [1] Group 2: Beneficiaries - Aletheia names six Taiwanese companies—TSMC, ASE Technology Holding, Kyec, ChipMOS, Wistron NeWeb, and Hongjing Precision—as beneficiaries of the positive industry trend, recommending a "buy" for these stocks [1] - TSMC's CoWoS-dependent chips include products from Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, and Broadcom, indicating a broad reliance on TSMC's advanced packaging capabilities [2] Group 3: Capacity Expansion Challenges - Despite TSMC's plans to quadruple CoWoS capacity between 2024 and 2027, this expansion is expected to fall short of the rapidly growing demand, prompting customers to seek assistance from packaging manufacturers [2] - Companies like ASE and Amkor are expected to play crucial roles in packaging for new products, with significant increases in CoWoS demand projected between 2025 and 2027 [2] Group 4: Testing and Outsourcing - Kyec is set to benefit from strong growth in testing services for Broadcom's AI ASICs starting in 2026, as well as from TSMC's outsourcing of wafer probing tests [2] - Wistron NeWeb is also expected to gain from TSMC's outsourcing strategy, as packaging manufacturers increasingly adopt Wistron NeWeb's solutions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock dropped over 5%, closing at $35.31, following a downgrade by Bank of America from "Neutral" to "Underperform" while maintaining a target price of $34 [1] Group 1: Rating and Market Reaction - Bank of America downgraded Intel's rating, indicating that the recent market capitalization increase of $80 billion has overly reflected improvements in its balance sheet and external foundry potential [1] - The downgrade suggests a cautious outlook on Intel's stock performance in the near term [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Intel faces a challenging competitive environment, highlighted by a lack of a clear AI product portfolio and strategy [1] - The company's server CPU offerings are noted to be lacking in competitiveness compared to industry peers [1] - There are increasing difficulties in divesting its loss-making manufacturing business, which adds to the competitive pressures [1]