花旗发表研报指出，AMD去年第四季度业绩的上行主要受到意外的3.9亿美元中国销售额提振。尽管 AMD对2026年第一季度的指引高于市场共识，但该行认为买方预期更高。该行认为，在2026年下半年 MI450发布之前，该股仍处于观望模式，该行认为该产品面临执行、竞争及客户集中风险。2026年伺服 器CPU总可用市场将实现双位数字按年增长，2025年伺服器总可用市场约为200亿美元。 该行调整2026及2027财年的每股盈测(不含股份基础补偿)分别上调10美仙和下调4美仙，并基于目标市 盈率26倍，维持260美元的目标价，维持"中性"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - AMD reported strong quarterly earnings but provided guidance below market expectations, leading to an 11% drop in stock price. However, the CEO emphasized that AI business is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, driven by the ramp-up of the MI450 AI chip and increasing demand in data centers [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - AMD's revenue for the last quarter increased by 34% year-over-year to approximately $10.3 billion, surpassing market expectations of $9.7 billion [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.53, exceeding analyst forecasts [1]. - For the upcoming quarter, AMD forecasts revenue between $9.5 billion and $10.1 billion, which is above the external estimate of $9.38 billion [1]. Group 2: AI Business Outlook - AMD is set to significantly ramp up AI chip production in the second half of the year, with the MI450 series expected to start contributing to revenue in Q3 and scale up in Q4, continuing through 2027 [2]. - The company confirmed that the next-generation MI500 series will transition to a 2nm process by 2027, indicating a long-term commitment to advanced technology [2]. - The CEO noted that the AI trend is boosting demand not only for GPUs but also for CPUs, with strong demand for server CPUs driven by the expansion of infrastructure in large-scale data centers to meet increasing AI cloud service needs [2]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - AMD disclosed that its collaboration with OpenAI is progressing as planned, with a 6GW deployment set to gradually commence in the second half of this year, involving multiple cloud and data center customers showing high interest in the MI450 and complete cabinet solutions [2].

Core Insights - Aletheia Capital's report highlights a significant underestimation of the demand for advanced packaging, particularly CoWoS, driven by emerging AI applications [1] - The report predicts a substantial capacity shortfall for TSMC's CoWoS technology, with a projected gap of 400,000 units in 2026 and 700,000 units in 2027, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance [1] Group 1: Demand Drivers - The growth in GPU shipments and the rapid expansion of photomask sizes are identified as the two main drivers for CoWoS demand [1] - New devices such as server CPUs, high-end PCs, and gaming console chips are expected to adopt CoWoS technology starting in the second half of this year, with a significant acceleration anticipated by 2026 [1] Group 2: Beneficiaries - Aletheia names six Taiwanese companies—TSMC, ASE Technology Holding, Kyec, ChipMOS, Wistron NeWeb, and Hongjing Precision—as beneficiaries of the positive industry trend, recommending a "buy" for these stocks [1] - TSMC's CoWoS-dependent chips include products from Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, and Broadcom, indicating a broad reliance on TSMC's advanced packaging capabilities [2] Group 3: Capacity Expansion Challenges - Despite TSMC's plans to quadruple CoWoS capacity between 2024 and 2027, this expansion is expected to fall short of the rapidly growing demand, prompting customers to seek assistance from packaging manufacturers [2] - Companies like ASE and Amkor are expected to play crucial roles in packaging for new products, with significant increases in CoWoS demand projected between 2025 and 2027 [2] Group 4: Testing and Outsourcing - Kyec is set to benefit from strong growth in testing services for Broadcom's AI ASICs starting in 2026, as well as from TSMC's outsourcing of wafer probing tests [2] - Wistron NeWeb is also expected to gain from TSMC's outsourcing strategy, as packaging manufacturers increasingly adopt Wistron NeWeb's solutions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock dropped over 5%, closing at $35.31, following a downgrade by Bank of America from "Neutral" to "Underperform" while maintaining a target price of $34 [1] Group 1: Rating and Market Reaction - Bank of America downgraded Intel's rating, indicating that the recent market capitalization increase of $80 billion has overly reflected improvements in its balance sheet and external foundry potential [1] - The downgrade suggests a cautious outlook on Intel's stock performance in the near term [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Intel faces a challenging competitive environment, highlighted by a lack of a clear AI product portfolio and strategy [1] - The company's server CPU offerings are noted to be lacking in competitiveness compared to industry peers [1] - There are increasing difficulties in divesting its loss-making manufacturing business, which adds to the competitive pressures [1]