销量方面：新能源车购置税免征持续至2025年底，2026-2027年政策调整为减半征收，每车减税额度不 超过1.5万元，对30万元以下产品新增购车成本比例更高，该价格带目标消费者对价格变化更加敏感， 预计形成更强的销量冲击。展望2026年，鸿蒙智行、零跑、吉利、江淮等车企进入密集的新品投放周 期，在产品力技术领先、新车矩阵丰富的优势下，部分主机厂有望持续提高销量和市场份额。 电动化方面：2023-2025年主流车企的纯电平台（如比亚迪e平台3.0、吉利SEA）完成验证，2026年将规 模化落地新车型；智能化方面，L3级别智能驾驶落地在即，智能化升级正在成为2026年各主流车企新 车型放量的关键驱动力，车企通过在新车型上大规模配置高阶智驾必备的核心硬件，匹配车企新车周期 节奏，对整体销量形成拉动作用；全球化方面，比亚迪等车企2024-2025年在匈牙利、泰国、巴西等地 新建工厂投产，2026年海外产能迎来释放。 新兴业务：Robotaxi（开放高速场景）受益于政策支持+技术进步+成本下行进入商业化拐点，主机厂与 科技龙头Robotaxi业务在国内外多点开花，逐渐形成商业闭环；低速无人物流车/矿卡（封闭/低速场 ...

Core Insights - The report from China Galaxy Securities highlights that by 2026, the Robotaxi sector is expected to reach a commercialization turning point driven by policy support, technological advancements, and cost reductions [1][3] - The automotive industry in China is projected to experience stable volume and gradual price increases in 2025, with a dual drive from exports and new energy vehicles [1][2] Group 1: 2025 Overview - In 2025, the Chinese automotive industry is expected to achieve a pattern of "stable volume and gradual price increase," supported by the effective recovery of domestic demand due to vehicle replacement policies [1] - Both wholesale and retail sales are anticipated to grow year-on-year, with an increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles [1] - The industry is facing continued price wars, leading to further pressure on profitability, with revenue growth outpacing profit growth [1] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The exemption of the new energy vehicle purchase tax is expected to continue until the end of 2025, with a reduction to half in 2026-2027, potentially impacting sales significantly, especially for vehicles priced below 300,000 yuan [2] - Major automakers like Hongmeng Zhixing, Leap Motor, Geely, and JAC are entering a period of intensive new product launches, which may enhance their sales and market share [2] - The mainstream automakers' pure electric platforms are expected to be validated by 2025, with new models being launched at scale in 2026 [2] - The rollout of L3-level intelligent driving technology is imminent, becoming a key driver for new model launches in 2026 [2] Group 3: Emerging Business Opportunities - The Robotaxi sector is benefiting from policy support, technological progress, and cost reductions, leading to a commercial breakthrough, with major manufacturers and tech giants expanding their operations [3] - Low-speed unmanned logistics vehicles and mining trucks are moving towards scale due to policy support and economic advantages [3] - The integration of the intelligent automotive supply chain with the robotics industry is creating multiple advantages, including technological migration and resource consolidation [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading passenger vehicle manufacturers, the intelligent industry chain, and humanoid robotics industry, highlighting companies like Geely and Great Wall Motors as key players [3] - Beneficiary stocks include JAC Motors and Leap Motor in the passenger vehicle sector, and companies like SUTENG and Desay SV in the intelligent sector [3] - In the humanoid robotics sector, companies such as Top Group and Aikodi are identified as beneficiaries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that by 2026, the Robotaxi sector is expected to reach a commercialization turning point driven by policy support, technological advancements, and cost reductions [1][4] Group 1: 2025 Overview - In 2025, the Chinese automotive industry is projected to achieve a stable volume and gradual price increase, driven by both domestic demand recovery and the dual engines of exports and new energy vehicles [2] - The wholesale and retail sectors are expected to see year-on-year growth, with an increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles [2] - The ongoing price war is likely to further pressure industry profitability, leading to a scenario where revenue growth outpaces profit growth [2] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The exemption of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles will continue until the end of 2025, with a planned reduction to half in 2026-2027, which may significantly impact sales, especially for products priced below 300,000 yuan [3] - Companies like Hongmeng Zhixing, Leap Motor, Geely, and JAC are expected to enter a period of intensive new product launches, potentially increasing their sales and market share due to their technological advantages and diverse product offerings [3] - Major automakers are anticipated to scale up new models based on validated pure electric platforms by 2026, while L3-level intelligent driving technology is nearing implementation, becoming a key driver for new model launches [3] - Global expansion efforts by companies like BYD are set to materialize with new factories in Hungary, Thailand, and Brazil, leading to increased overseas production capacity in 2026 [3] Group 3: Emerging Business Opportunities - The Robotaxi sector is benefiting from a combination of policy support, technological progress, and cost reductions, leading to a commercial breakthrough, with major manufacturers and tech giants developing this business both domestically and internationally [4] - Low-speed unmanned logistics vehicles and mining trucks are gradually moving towards scale due to policy support and economic advantages [4] - The integration of the intelligent automotive supply chain with the robotics industry is expected to create multiple advantages, including technological migration, precision manufacturing capability reuse, and supply chain resource integration [4] - Investment recommendations include leading passenger vehicle manufacturers in a strong new car cycle, as well as companies in the intelligent and humanoid robotics sectors, with specific mentions of Geely, Great Wall Motors, and others [4]