Core Insights - The residential real estate market in Metro Manila is experiencing a downturn, reaching a five-year low despite ongoing policy interest rate cuts [1][3] - Buyers are shifting from new apartments to the secondary market due to affordability constraints, while speculators who entered during the POGO boom are accelerating asset sales [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Leechiu Property Consultants indicates that the Metro Manila residential market is undergoing a "major reshuffle," with rental prices and demand returning to normal levels after being distorted by POGO premiums [3] - Overall supply has stabilized, but affordability pressures and low rental yields continue to impact purchasing behavior, with transactions primarily focused on the secondary market and developer projects offering targeted promotions [3][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Statistics - Data shows that the number of new residential projects and demand in Metro Manila has dropped to the lowest levels since 2020, despite developers pushing for first-hand sales through limited-time offers and incentives [3] - As of November 2025, the inventory of condominiums in Metro Manila reached 775,400 units, with 96% of ready-for-occupancy units sold and 62% of pre-sold units sold, leaving an unsold inventory of approximately 26,400 ready units and 53,900 pre-sold units, equating to about 3.5 years of supply [3] Group 3: Affordability Challenges - The situation highlights the widening affordability gap faced by the broader middle-income group, as demand in the first-hand market remains sluggish and self-occupiers increasingly turn to the more flexible and cost-effective secondary market [4] - The rental market is characterized by moderate rental yields, with current rents reverting to realistic market levels, correcting unsustainable expectations previously inflated by POGO premiums [4] - The national housing deficit is projected to reach 10.65 million units by 2024, with a long-term shortage of low-income housing supply, leading to a cautious approach from developers regarding entry into the low-income housing market due to low profit margins and high compliance costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore government announced adjustments to the Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) and holding period for residential real estate to curb speculative behavior [1] Summary by Category Policy Changes - The holding period for the Seller's Stamp Duty will be extended from three years to four years, reverting to the duration prior to the last adjustment in 2017 [1] - The SSD tax rates will increase by four percentage points for each tier, meaning homeowners selling their private residential properties within four years will face higher taxes ranging from 4% to 16% [1] Impact on Market - These adjustments will affect private residential property purchases made on or after July 4, 2025 [1] - The changes do not impact owners of public housing (HDB), as they are required to comply with a minimum occupancy period before selling [1]

Group 1 - Jefferies indicates that the declining interest rates in Hong Kong increase the likelihood of the residential real estate market hitting bottom [1] - The one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) has dropped significantly by 205 basis points over the past four days, providing a glimmer of hope for the struggling real estate market [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold HKD 129.4 billion (approximately USD 16.6 billion) to prevent the Hong Kong dollar from appreciating beyond its peg with the US dollar, resulting in increased liquidity in the currency market [1] Group 2 - Jefferies' global equity strategy head, Christopher Wood, suggests that if the Hong Kong dollar does not appreciate, local asset prices will face upward pressure, further increasing the chances of the residential real estate market bottoming out [1] - The Centaline Property Agency reports that current property prices have fallen approximately 29% from the peak in August 2021, with the number of negative equity households reaching the highest level since 2003 as of the end of March [1] - Analysts Sam Wong and Shujin Chen from Jefferies note that while the decline in Hibor may ease financing cost pressures for developers and landlords, it could also compress local banks' profit margins [2] Group 3 - The banking sector in Hong Kong may be approaching a profitability turning point, although it has not yet arrived, with ongoing net interest margin pressure [2] - By the second quarter of 2025, the growth momentum of non-interest income may weaken [2]