Core Viewpoint - The Singapore government announced adjustments to the Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) and holding period for residential real estate to curb speculative behavior [1] Summary by Category Policy Changes - The holding period for the Seller's Stamp Duty will be extended from three years to four years, reverting to the duration prior to the last adjustment in 2017 [1] - The SSD tax rates will increase by four percentage points for each tier, meaning homeowners selling their private residential properties within four years will face higher taxes ranging from 4% to 16% [1] Impact on Market - These adjustments will affect private residential property purchases made on or after July 4, 2025 [1] - The changes do not impact owners of public housing (HDB), as they are required to comply with a minimum occupancy period before selling [1]

Group 1 - Jefferies indicates that the declining interest rates in Hong Kong increase the likelihood of the residential real estate market hitting bottom [1] - The one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) has dropped significantly by 205 basis points over the past four days, providing a glimmer of hope for the struggling real estate market [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold HKD 129.4 billion (approximately USD 16.6 billion) to prevent the Hong Kong dollar from appreciating beyond its peg with the US dollar, resulting in increased liquidity in the currency market [1] Group 2 - Jefferies' global equity strategy head, Christopher Wood, suggests that if the Hong Kong dollar does not appreciate, local asset prices will face upward pressure, further increasing the chances of the residential real estate market bottoming out [1] - The Centaline Property Agency reports that current property prices have fallen approximately 29% from the peak in August 2021, with the number of negative equity households reaching the highest level since 2003 as of the end of March [1] - Analysts Sam Wong and Shujin Chen from Jefferies note that while the decline in Hibor may ease financing cost pressures for developers and landlords, it could also compress local banks' profit margins [2] Group 3 - The banking sector in Hong Kong may be approaching a profitability turning point, although it has not yet arrived, with ongoing net interest margin pressure [2] - By the second quarter of 2025, the growth momentum of non-interest income may weaken [2]